Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 3, 2013

Race 1

Analysis

Opener today features one interesting horse after another, and it may pay to take a shot with one of them rather than just take the shorter prices and leave it at that.

I have no argument with ML favorite CROWN QUEEN (#5, 3-1) the $1.6 million younger half-sister to multiple champion Royal Delta, who appeared to get an educational debut upstate for Bill Mott. She will be first Lasix for this start, and everyone knows that Mott’s 2yo’s tend to improve with racing. ZLOTY (#8, 7-2) is the close second choice, and she ran very well on her debut rating wide in a race that had zero pace on. She’s likely to improve in a fairly run race, and is the horse to beat, but the combination of that solid debut and having Chad Brown listed along with her in the program will pull plenty of money her way.

KNACQUE (#7, 4-1) is quite unexciting from a wagering perspective at that ML price, but she ran pretty well in her debut sprinting on dirt upstate; then flattened out badly second out, in another dirt sprint. She has some pedigree to make the surface switch, and her debut does suggest she can run a bit, but taking anything like the ML price on her in this field feels like an underlay. The good thing about this race is that it offers some alternatives to those horses, at least to try to get in underneath Crown Queen or Zloty (I will try to beat one, if not both of them). While I’m unlikely to take a firster in a field like this, I’ll point out that both STATUS (#3, 8-1) and TOUCH THE STAR (#4, 12-1) are well bred, well connected fillies, and are eligible to be runners. Status is the first foal from Backseat Memories, who was a Grade 1 winner on turf and made over $800k in her career; and Touch the Star is a half-sister to Etoile Montante, a Group 1 winner in France before coming stateside to win multiple graded stakes on turf for Bobby Frankel (she made over $650k on turf in her career).

The prices I will go for exit the same race, which came here back on opening day of the Fall Meet. The 7th race that day was won (convincingly) by Bikini Beauty, a Christophe Clement firster, with a 71 Beyer. HOLABIRD (#9, 6-1) was sent off at 13/1 in that field and did some running from off the pace to get 3rd; here are my notes for Holabird in that race, via Formulator: steadied a bit break & was at back, bit green while 3-4w thru the turn,raced on stretch for a piece, not bad

The other horse exiting that race is SUNSET RIDE (#1, 15-1) and she’s more of a reach, but she’ll also be a big price. I don’t know if she can run at all, but one thing I do know is her debut didn’t give us a chance to find out. Here are my notes, again via Formulator:

didn’t break & was outrun from gate,in some traffic & wound up taking up mid-turn in last,left alone from there to finish on her own

Spot Play

We liked the way ZLOTY (#8, 7-2) trained over the Oklahoma turf course this summer before her respectable debut. She put in a nice breeze over the dirt here on September 27th and should be fitter for her second career race. – Mike Vesce

Spot Play

ZLOTY (#8, 7-2) was stuck behind an impossibly slow pace in that debut try after she hit the gate at the start but she recovered enough to make a mid-race bid before tiring; looms tough here with a little racing luck. -Kenny Peck

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

Live Longshot

TIME ON MY HANDS (#4, 5-1): Both races on non-sealed dirt this year are competitive. They were back in late winter and early spring, though, so she’s likely to be a decent value in a spot where the 7-5 morning-line choice, Evasive Cat, is a bounce candidate two weeks after a new Beyer top, and perhaps best in shorter sprints.- Dave Litfin

Race 5

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Race 6

Race 7

Vulnerable Favorite

NATIVE SINGER (#5, 2-1) hasn’t raced since fading to fifth Aug. 17 at Saratoga and shows just one published work since, a four-furlong move coming Sept. 8 at Belmont; not sold that he will rebound and return to the form he displayed prior to his last-race failure.- Byron King

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Spot Play

I'M WIDE AWAKE (#6, 4-1) joins the winning claiming barn of David Jacobson after previously racing for the lower % Guillot barn; strong turf sprint form – Byron King

Spot Play

MR. WILLIAM (#1, 15-1) seems to have come out of the maiden win nicely by putting in a strong breeze on September 27th. We’ve seen this gelding train quite a bit and that breeze may indicate that he’s turned a corner. – Mike Vesce

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Closer Looks >>