Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 23, 2013

Race 1

Analysis

Race 1 doesn't feel like a good race to take a short price on anybody, so I will hold to the morning line (at least) to give STRIKE ACCORD (#1, 4/1) one more chance. I'll admit to doing some chasing of her so far this year, but she has been wired in all three starts since returning from the layoff, and has had the kind of finish each time which suggests she could have exited any one of them with a better result if the pace had helped her out at all.

She lands in another race here that appears to have only one speed, in the form of TAKE IT INSIDE (#6, 3/1), but that horse is 1-for-18 on grass and hasn't won a race in over two years; lone speed or not, at 3/1 she's all yours.

While I am taking the position that Strike Accord may simply be the best horse in here, and better than she looks on paper due to circumstance, I still wouldn't want a short price on her, and if she comes down from that morning line, the only other horse I could go to is ALWAYS HOME (#9, 15/1) who has won two in a row vs. claiming competition, but has been best both times and has positional speed.

Spot Play

Miz Owell (#7, 7-2) – could not keep up with starter runners last time out, but finds a softer spot here against NY-bred opposition; owns good turf Beyers in the 70s for this stable on the grass.– Byron King

Live Longshot

HOPE FOR TOMORROW (#2, 15-1) been on the shelf for 10 months, but returns on the grass where she broke her maiden in lone turf try; that race produced three next out winners, two of which won next on the lawn.-Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

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Race 3

Live Longshot

The barn hasn't won since 2010, and perhaps that's a reason to use MY DONNA JEAN (#2, 15-1) largely underneath, but she's also worth a small win wager, as her most recent dirt Beyers are the best figures in this field; overall win percentage is lacking at first glance but she her 6-1-2-2 record over a dry main track is hardly awful, and she could have a pace edge here.-Kenny Peck

Race 4

Analysis

Race 4 I'll lean on ANOTHER PAGE (#2, 2/1) in the Pick 4-and-5 as she drops to a likely spot to bounce back after having her good form dirtied up by a turf race; a 9-furlong tour of Saratoga in the slop; and a chase & fade in a fast-paced allowance race on June 19th. Her prior two races, which were both one-turn miles, make her much the horse to beat in this field, and since I can make excuses for her recent poor form, I won't worry too much about the drop in for $15k.

Race 5

Analysis

Race 5 I'm looking to take a shot in this open-looking maiden claimer for 2yo fillies on grass. There are several horses to take long looks at in here, but I'm going to give TAPITBYTHESEA (#11, 10/1) another chance after encountering some trouble in her debut. Here's how I saw it, via the Notes feature in Formulator:

• inside off pace b/s, steadying and in constant shuffle all the way out to back thruT, didn't finish hard but not an ideal trip

I'll use her primarily with the Contessa pair of CAMDEN JANE (#5, 5/2), who ran well in a live race upstate sprinting, and AL'S GAL (#10, 6/1) who had no chance while rating behind a glacial pace in her only start.

Live Longshot

RECKLESS MOVE (#6, 12-1): This Fair Hill-based filly more than doubled her debut Beyer when switched to turf second time out. She comes off a bullet workout last week, and drops from special-weight company.-Dave Litfin

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

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Race 7

Analysis

Race 7 Going back to THOMAS HILL (#5, 4/1) in the 7th, as he's not only a strong fit at this level, but the seven-furlong distance works better for him than it does for a few of his talented rivals. The main danger to him may be HAMNET (#8, 4/1), a lightly raced 3yo who was dead game prevailing in his first start for Chad Brown after a wide trip.

Live Longshot

MARGARET OWNZIT (#8, 12-1): After breaking in front and chasing in two sprints from posts #1 and #3, this 2-year-old filly stretches out to a mile and moves toward the outside. Another alert beginning may enable her to get the early lead in a match-up with no clear early pacesetter.-Dave Litfin

Vunlerable Favorites

Sure, BLUEGRASS SPRINGS (3-1) could win this. But he's untested at the distance, and he's very unlikely to get the same kind of perfect set-up he got in that last one, when he posted a career-best figure, and that makes it tough to take him on the win end at a short price.-Kenny Peck

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

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Race 9

Analysis

Race 9 We'll see if he stays around that morning line, but if he does I'll play STAR OF SARAVA (#4, 10/1) in the finale as, despite being a maiden on grass after eight tries, is multiple stakes placed and has never raced this cheaply on turf in his life – and his win on the main track first off the trainer chance to Levine suggests he can still run, at least.

Closer Looks >>