Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 2, 2013
Race 1 |
AnalysisRace 1 I like SURPRISE KITTY (#3, 3/1) in the first, although her 3/1 price on the morning line doesn’t excite me. I think her last race, which was first back from an almost six month break, is a better effort than it may appear on paper, even though she was a beaten favorite for a lower claiming tag. To me, that race had a much stronger pace than the :22.2 - :46 fractions indicate, and I thought Sunrise Kitty did well to chase that pace down to make a late lead, only to be run down in the late stages. I’ll expect her to be tighter for this, and if she can run something more like her Jan 31st win at Gulfstream she will be tough in here (the horse she defeated that day, To My Valentine, exited that race to run 2nd in a stakes race, and most recently has won back-to-back races with 90+ Beyers, including a $125k stakes in Kentucky). The second choice on the ML is NICE STUFF (#5, 7/2) and in a lot of ways she’s simply the horse to beat. I’m against her in here because A) I think she’ll actually be favored come post time, and B) while she’s holding good form right now, she’s an infrequent winner and exits three straight races where she ran fine, but with good trips and came up short. The horses I’ll use with Sunrise Kitty in lieu of Nice Stuff are MY BELLA BEAUTY (#7, 6/1), who has improved on grass for a talented young trainer; the logical STRATEGIC MISSILE (#8, 4/1); and a little RADIANT CUT (#1, 15/1) who ran well in both turf sprints as a 2yo, and is eligible to improve rapidly in her 3yo debut, although being away for as long as she has makes me think she’s more a horse to watch today and keep in mind for races down the road. Spot PlayNice Stuff (#5, 7-2) last two Beyers (81,82) stand out vs. the competition; at her best on the Belmont lawn and racing six furlongs. – Byron King Closer Looks >> |
Race 2 |
AnalysisRace 2 There are several well bred & well connected firsters in here so it may pay to keep an eye on the tote board, but the two main players on paper here emerge from the same race on September 8th, and I much prefer ENTHRONE (#6, 5/1) to LITTLE BOSS (#2, 7/2), even though the latter had the better placing in that race. Trips made all the difference that day, as Little Boss was in a good inside tracking trip all the way (though he couldn’t get out into the clear for the stretch run & did finish gamely), while Enthrone was kept out on a 4-to-5 wide chase the entire way, and did very well to finish where he did. He has the same rider aboard for this, but I’ll hope that the price is right and he can work out something better this time. Spot PlayUPTOWN JOE (#1, 5-2) We liked the way this colt trained in Saratoga and I caught him on September 25th in a nice-looking move alongside of Pass the Tap, with Jose Lezcano aboard. This son of War Front has talent and should appreciate the turf. – Mike Vesce Closer Looks >> |
Race 3 |
Spot PlayGLACKEN’S GIFT (#4, 7-2) She caught the eye in her breeze on September 23rd over the Belmont main track and is bred to be talented as she is a full sister to the promising and fast, Live Lively. – Mike Vesce Closer Looks >> |
Race 4 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 5 |
Live LongshotJONRAH (#5, 8-1) Gets Lezcano back for low profile barn who’s done fine job with stock she’s gotten from Bush barn; think the move to the Widener will enhance his late kick.- Chuck Kuehhas Closer Looks >> |
Race 6 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 7 |
Live LongshotHLAO ROO (#9, 10-1) This New York-bred filly returned from a layoff in mid-summer, and sports an upward-moving trio of Beyers, the last of which matched her best figure from last year. Seems like a stretch threat at a price after making up nearly nine lengths two weeks ago. - Dave Litfin Closer Looks >> |
Race 8 |
Spot PlayPROFETIZA (#3, 8-1)Thisfilly has always shown talent in the mornings and maybe the cutback to six furlongs will help her poor recent form. She actually looked better than Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, Ron the Greek, in their September 16th workout over the Oklahoma training track in Saratoga. – Mike Vesce Closer Looks >> |
Race 9 |
Closer Looks >> |