Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 19, 2013

Race 1

Big field of two-year-old maidens kicks off NY-bred Showcase Day, and I want to try SKYE SARATOGA (#12, 5-1), making her second start after chasing a fast pace in a race that collapsed in her debut. She had nothing left for the closers after making a short stretch lead that day, but figures to be tighter for this, and being drawn toward the outside should be okay in this race, which figures to feature another quick pace.- Mike Beer

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Race 2

Race 2 goes through likely heavy favorite COURT DANCER (#6, 1-1) who impressed blowing away maidens with a 76 Beyer in her debut, then acquitted herself well despite being no match for open graded stakes horses in the Matron. She’s way the horse to beat and a must use, but I’ll also try to get CANAL SIX (#2, 15-1) into the mix somewhere. Canal Six has the look of a horse who, more than anything else, may appreciate getting more ground to work with after being outpaced both times going shorter. She has finished well both times, and galloped out past the wire, so if she can get someone to keep up with Court Dancer early here, perhaps she can make an impact late. She’ll be on my Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets, and I’ll certainly have a 6-2 exacta in play here.- Mike Beer

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

Vulnerable Favorite

STOCK FUND (#2, 4-1) and GLORIA VICTORIA (#5, 7-2) will sprinkle liberally in this race, not using the former, who is now 0 for 22 with 11 seconds and numerous losses as the favorite, or the latter, who will get bet being trained by Pletcher and having two ok efforts on the main track, but not really turf bred. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 6

Race 6 features some of the usual suspects, and figures to have a solid favorite in RAGLIN RIVER (#4, 3-1) who should have won last time, and likely would have with a cleaner trip. The main problem I have with him is that his trouble in that race was hard to miss, which tends to lead to some over-betting, and I will just point out that he had a very good trip two starts back and failed to get it done. The alternatives really aren’t there in this field, but I need at least one, so how about first-time-turf HARSH (#11, 10-1)?

He’s had a couple of scheduled turf starts rained off already, so his connections have certainly been looking to run him on this surface, and he is a half-brother to the fast turf sprinter Subtle, who has won four times on grass so far, and was most recently a very sharp second in a $200k stakes at Parx.- Mike Beer

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Race 7

Race 7 is a fairly wide open turf sprint for older horses, and I’ll look to give KNOCKHER OFF (#4, 10-1) a chance to rebound, especially if he’s anywhere near his morning line odds at post time. He was way overbet last time at this level based on a romping win over an extremely weak field when making his turf debut upstate; but he did really run that day (you don’t often win 5 ½ furlong turf races by over 8 lengths), and I can make an excuse for the unpopular defeat last out, as he got no position after failing to break sharply from the gate, and wound up having to take a four-wide run through the turn. He has the positional speed to put himself more in the game, and if he can build upon that sharp win two back he’s tough in here. - Mike Beer

Live Longshot

KNOCKHER OFF (#4, 10-1): As fast as anyone in this first-level allowance based on his maiden win, which was his first start of the year and first on turf; logical threat to rebound after a typical regression second time back. -Dave Litfin

Spot Play

Like the potential pace scenario as it pertains to SOUL HOUSE (#7, 6-1) who should benefit from a forward position with mild splits likely; solid effort in defeat in his lone turf try to date. -Kenny Peck

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Race 8

Spot Play

INIMITABLE ROMNEE (#3, 4-1) – ran third as the favorite against a similar group most recently but may be able to improve upon that finish with a clean trip; Johnny V. climbs aboard – Byron King

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Race 9

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Race 10

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Race 11

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