Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 17, 2013

Race 1

Analysis

Race 1 is a weak gathering of NY-bred maidens going one-mile on the main track, in which none of the six entrants have come within 10 points of the Beyer par (72) recently. BRANDINI (#4, 8-5) earned a 73 Beyer for a strong debut effort, a race which would bury this field were she to reproduce it here; the problem is, she earned that figure seven months ago, and since then she has run three times - and not nearly as well in any of them. She is likely to go clearly favored here because that debut run in still on the page, and the fact that she did manage to finish ahead of four of today’s rivals when second best here in the 4th race on September 18th, but to me she feels like a good horse to take a shot against at a short price. She was off the layoff in there, so perhaps she’s ready to go forward now, but she got a perfectly good trip that day and, in my opinion anyway, failed to show that she holds much of an edge on these horses at this point.

I’ll try to beat Brandini with two horses, SKY LASSIE (#5, 8-1) and FUJIANA (#6, 2-1), both of whom had much tougher trips than Brandini when finishing behind her on September 18th. Fujiana was not only returning from an extended layoff in that race, but she was in a four-wide trip throughout, and is eligible to run a much better race with that one under her belt - although her 2/1 ML odds aren’t very appealing. Sky Lassie endured a very tough trip when finishing 4th in that race, checking at the break, which cost her a couple of lengths, and then getting in tight on the rail entering the far turn, which forced her to drop back again. I’d be happier to take a shot with her were she not wheeled back four days after that race (she drew in as an MTO entrant that day) but 8/1 odds would make the risk acceptable.

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Race 2

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Race 3

Vulnerable Favorite

YOU SO SMART (#3, 2-1) not willing to give this one a free pass for his last-race failure in an off-the-turf race in which he broke poorly; yes, he had an excuse for not running his best, but in this case he was eased; maiden claimers like him are typically less dependable than favorites in higher-end races – Byron King

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Race 4

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Race 5

Live Longshot

BAKE SHOP (#10, 6-1): Off slowest from the rail when involved in a blanket finish with Itsagoodtendollars and Zivo at Saratoga, but the tables have turned and he is now drawn outside, while those two break from the two innermost stalls. -Dave Litfin

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Race 6

Spot Play

EDIE (#4, 10-1) has shown improvement for trainer Chris Englehart since being claimed over the summer; solid speed figures; not the most likely winner – heavily favored Deanaallen’skitten is – but Edie is a clear overlay. – Byron King

Live Longshot

ROCK ON BABY (#4, 10-1) took back last time so wouldn’t get hung wide into first turn so think she’s more prominent early here today; low profile trainer has done even a better job than record would indicate and love the jock switch.- Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 7

Vulnerable Favorite

It's possible that ASCENDED FEVER (#1, 2-1) runs back to that easy score at this course and distance last time but it doesn't seem probable that she gets the same kind of ideal set-up and trip, as there's not that much speed in this field; more likely that she regresses off that lifetime-best figure. -Kenny Peck

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Race 8

Spot Play

SKY BLAZER (#2, 8-1) was against the race flow in his first three turf starts following the layoff in April, as well as in that first try at Saratoga, and then a slow start cost him last time; extra ground today should work to his benefit. -Kenny Peck

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Race 9

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Race 10

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