Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for October 12, 2013

Race 1

LIVE LONG SHOT

KING KONGRATS (#6, 15-1): Were he from a higher-profile barn, his morning-line quote would be considerably lower based on a decent debut in the slop, and today’s addition of Lasix and blinkers. -Dave Litfin

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

VULNERABLE FAVORITE

ST. SINCERE (#3, 2-1) finally trying dirt after nine starts; looks like desperation move here, despite the overall weakness of field. Will use 4, 5, and 8 in any multi race wagers. - Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Knickerbocker Stakes

The Grade 3 Knickerbocker drew an excellent field of eleven, headed by BOISTEROUS (#11, 7/2), who will be looking for his third straight win in this race. Boisterous became a Grade 1 winner in the Man ‘O War back in July, but has been a little disappointing in a pair of losses as the favorite since then. You could argue that the 1 ½ miles of the Sword Dancer was just too far for him, and that he didn’t get the greatest ride in the world last time, with John Velazquez over-committing to the inside and ultimately getting trapped inside at a crucial point. That is something I’d be willing to do were he to go off at around his morning line odds, which seems fair, especially considering that Boisterous loves some give in the ground, which he is likely to get on Saturday. However, there is also a case to be made that he has simply tailed off lately, and at too short of a price, I may be inclined to view him that way.

The main threat to Boisterous is likely to be ZA APPROVAL (#7, 3/1), a much improved 5yo who will enter this race off of a pair of triple digit Beyers earned for runnerup finishes behind Obviously and Wise Dan. The main question concerning Za Approval is the course condition, since he apparently doesn’t like soft turf, and is unlikely to run if the forecast holds up. If he does make it into the gate, the question will revolve around distance, as he’s been more of a miler throughout his career.

There are several alternatives if you’re looking outside the two favorites in here, with horses like MR. COMMONS (#2, 6/1), HOWE GREAT (#6, 8/1) and even lone-speed PLAINVIEW (#5, 10/1) having legit chances, but my idea is to try to get SWIFT WARRIOR (#3, 8/1) to beat them. Swift Warrior may be in a bit too tough if those two horses are going to show up with their best stuff, but he has races that put him in the frame, and he projects for a good trip with a perfect inside draw and fine tactical speed. I’ll hope that he can get himself forwardly placed and get the jump on horses like Boisterous, Za Approval and Mr. Commons, and then hope that’s all the advantage that he needs.

SPOT PLAYS

MR. COMMONS (#2, 6-1) has been chasing the likes of Wise Dan and Obviously; this is no easy spot but there are no runners like those two in here. -Kenny Peck

LIVE LONGSHOT

TETRADRACHM (#10, 8-1) chased wire to wire winner, Silver Max, in fast fractions before tiring; that winner went on to defeat Wise Dan in similar fashion next time out in off the turf Shadwell Mile.

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

SPOT PLAYS

TRUTH IS (#7, 7-2) cuts back to sprint from two turn slop affair up at the Spa; ideally drawn outside and has plenty of pace up front to run at. -Chuck Kuehhas

Confrontation (#8, 3-1) deserves to be heavily favored but isn’t, likely because his first start came for a maiden 50K tag; still, he’s 2 for 2 and smoking fast. – Byron King

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Athenia Stakes

With an iffy forecast for the area this weekend, we’ll see if the pair of scheduled graded stakes stay on the grass. If they do, course condition could play a major role in the outcome.

The Athenia figures to have a clear cut favorite in Chad Brown’s SAMITAR (#3, 7/5), a Group 1 winner in Ireland, before coming stateside to pick up another Grade 1 score in the Garden City. She’s been a little disappointing since that win, but you could make some excuses for her if you were so inclined - she’s been wired no less than three times in races that did not set up well for her style - and her best race is going to make her tough in here. With that said, she is certainly not the kind of horse I’m that afraid to bet against at a short price, as, despite that Garden City win, she has been more of a disappointment over here than anything else.

Chad Brown will also saddle the second choice in the race, PIANIST (#5, 5/2). Much like Samitar, Pianist is a bit of an enigma, as she tends to have a hard time putting good races together, and you can never be sure which Pianist is going to show up. She has plenty of speed, handles cut in the ground, and is dangerous in here, especially if she shows up with her “A” game.

While both of those horses will find their way into my Pick 4 play, within the race I’m going to try to beat them with ABACO (#4, 5/1). Abaco has the look of a typical Shug McGaughey trained runner: brought along slowly and showing steady improvement with racing. After breaking her maiden as a 4yo last summer, Abaco promptly ripped straight through her conditions before heading down to Florida and running a huge race in the Suwannee River Stakes - a race in which it is easy to argue that she was best, and unlucky not to win after a very tough trip.

Abaco was way against the track with a wide, off the pace trip toward the end of the Saratoga meet - when inside was the place to be on the turf courses - and then was once again unlucky to fall short in the Lady Baltimore stakes last time after getting caught in some stretch traffic. I think she’s good enough to compete with these horses with her best race, and at the 5/1 morning line odds, I’ll bet her to win and play her in exactas with the two Chad Brown trainees.

Closer Looks >>

Race 10

Closer Looks >>