Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 3, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

Live Longshot

ZAFIRO AZUL (#3, 12-1) was off slowly in lone turf start while making career debut last fall and went out pretty well after race; solid barn having good year after disastrous ’13. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 5

Live Longshot

LUCCI THE LION (#3, 12-1) has the best last-out Beyer in this field, and he may also hold a pace edge on the closers, as there's not all that much speed in this field; under the circumstances the 12-1 ML price might be out of reach but he'll certainly offer value. -Kenny Peck

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Race 6

Vulnerable Favorite

FAST TIME (#7, 5-2) almost sure to be overbet due to back figures; 6yo gelding was off 11 months, then so-so effort in return. Proceed with caution. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 7

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Race 8

Beaugay Stakes by Marcus Hersh

Trainer Chad Brown holds the best hand in the G3 Beaugay, and from this vantage point, either of entrants, WATSDACHANCES or WATERWAY RUN, can win, and while I’d give a slight edge to Waterway Run, Watsdachances – with the lesser-known jock and the layoff – might be the better value.

It was good to see Waterway Run break more alertly & stick closer to the leaders (albeit on a crawling pace) on the Hillsborough last out at Tampa, and while she was outfinished by Cloud Scapes, who subsequently made no real impression in the G1 Jenny Wiley at KEE, she did beat the thoroughly decent Riposte. Her overseas experience will have given her experience in one-bend races like this, and with just two starts using Lasix and early in her 4-year-old season, she retains some measure of upside.

Watsdachances figures to employ similar tactics & does have the benefit of good runs over the course, and her best race from her 3-year-old campaign in 2013, a close fourth in the G1 QE II at KEE, would make her a serious win threat. She looks ready for something representative off a solid work pattern, and the aforementioned jock has done very, very well in limited chances for the Brown barn.

ORION MOON merits some respect and could easily improve off her last-start Gulfstream comeback run following a long break, though the speed figure from that performance feels inflated. She does give the impression of a mare that might best suit races at 9-10 furlongs. Longer also almost certainly would seem to be better for the Clement barn’s other entrant, Irish Mission.

ASSATEAGUE and ENGLISH CLASS clearly look like the speed, and they should keep each other occupied to the extent that the race is fairly run. Assateague has enough quality to get into the frame in her seasonal debut.

It feels like BYRAMA will be overbet based on synthetic-surface form, and though she is just two starts into a trainer and circuit change, she’s a 5-year-old with 25 starts, and there’s a strong chance we’ve already seen the best she has to offer.

A rain-off onto dirt would make streaking NATALIE VICTORIA the one to beat, and a stakes win in a $150K race would make her a great $12.5K claim from last December.

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Race 9

Spot Play

KINGSFORD DRIVE (#8, 7-2): Freshened up since two very tough setups racing wide on Aqueduct’s inner dirt, the last try Mar. 9 against a strong gold rail; big win off a 51-day break here last fall. --Dave Litfin

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Race 10

Fort Marcy Stakes by Michael Hammersly

The last time TETRADRACHM faced SUMMER FRONT he couldn’t quite finish with that rival, finishing 2nd to him in the Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale at GP Jan. 11. The last time he ran against SPEAKING OF WHICH he couldn’t quite outfinish that foe, finishing 2nd to him in the Grade 3 Tropical Park Turf Handicap Dec. 7. Well, there’s reason to believe the tables can be turned this time in favor of the 5-year-old gelded son of Badge of Silver. To be sure, TETRADRACHM ran extremely well in those two outings. In the Tropical Park he stalked the pace and ran on well; in the Ft. Lauderdale he made the running but couldn’t see out the trip as ‘FRONT edged past. There’s certainly speed here but he’s no need-the-lead type. You can see big efforts on his resume on the pace, from just off the pace and from well off the pace. His natural gallop, particularly at this type of distance, will have him forwardly placed, quite possibly on the lead. But it won’t require a send or push from his rider.

Since those 2 losses he set the pace in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap before fading to 4th, but that effort looks even better as the winner of that, Lochte, came back to nearly win the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile (beaten a nose) at SA in early March, and was then 3rd to Horse of the Year Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile last month. In other words, this guy was chasing a serious horse.

There’s no one quite like that in here for him to fear. Yes, he comes off a defeat in the Grade 3 Appleton at GP March 29 but you can be forgiving about him running 4th. Remember, he blew the start that day, so instead of being forwardly placed he had just one horse beaten after a quarter mile. He steadily advanced and kept to his task decently but the die was cast at the bell.

He’s worked very nicely since and with a clean break his speed figures to have him in the thick of it from the start, and his class can keep him there all the way around, maybe to the tune of a decent price, too (possibly in the 4-1 range).

SUMMER FRONT is a legit favorite as he’s a proven commodity. He won a very strong Grade 2 Citation at BHP Nov. 29 and then beat TETRADRACHM at GP Jan.11. He fizzled in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap to end up 7th but that run may have been a sign he needed a break. Well, trainer Christophe Clement has given him the break and this runner has shown before he can fire fresh and is working as if he intends to do so again.

SPEAKING OF WHICH once looked like a real comer. He was a smart 2nd in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby at SA in November 2012, hinting that big things could be coming from him. Well, it didn’t quite pan out that way. However, the 5-year-old seems to have recouped some of his lost luster of late. As noted, he was a smart winner of TETRADRACHM at CRC Dec. 7. he then came back to finish strongly for 3rd in the Grade 3 Col. E.R. Bradley at FG Jan. 18. He hasn’t run since but has responded well before to a freshening and a repeat of his performance level in those two outings makes him dangerous.

UNBRIDLED OCEAN has come into his own since returning from Dubai. He won a strong optional claimer on turf at GP Feb. 2, was a rallying 4th in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf there Feb. 22 and then 3rd to multiple graded stakes winner Boisterous in a strong allowance tilt at KEE April 5. He figures to be coming in the lane.

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Race 11

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Race 12

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