Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 17, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

Spot Play

Those are some very strong works showing for SHIPWRECK KELLY (#5, 3-1), who is listed as the third choice on the line; the 3-1 quoted price would represent value in this short field. -Kenny Peck

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Race 5

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Race 6

Spot Play

ULTIMATE SHOPPER (#5, 6-1): Yes, she had disappointed at odds-on in her last two, but her last was on poly at Keeneland and the prior was her first time facing winners off big maiden score; much better price today. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 7

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Race 8

Live Longshot

BRASS PEAR (#7, 15-1): He “bounced” 25 Beyer points last out, but three weeks earlier posted this field’s top figure of the year leading to deep stretch of a seven-furlong starter allowance; speedster may rebound at a square price. --Dave Litfin

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Race 9

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Race 10

Vagrancy Handicap by Marcus Hersh

Lion DNA already won the Skipat Stakes on Friday at Pimlico, and while Rudy Rodriguez likes to run on short rest, I doubt the filly will be making a 24-hour turnaround. Which is too bad, because I picked her to win the Vagrancy. That means I’m scratching into KAUAI KATIE, and I’m none too happy about it.

I have no strong or even moderate opinion about who, specifically, among her four remaining rivals, can beat Kauai Katie, but I do feel that one or more of them can beat her. Kauai Katie was once a formidable sprinter, and who knows, perhaps she will be again, but to this point, she has simply not been the same horse since her win two Januarys ago in the Forward Gal. Not even close to the same. Her brilliance is gone, and while for some horses, learning to come from off the pace is a favorable factor, it doesn’t seem that way in this case.

Unless you are a mega-whale, there is nothing to be gained by playing Kauai Katie to win or making her a single in pick-whatevers. Yes, a repeat of her most recent race would probably suffice against a very modest group, but horses in apparent decline shouldn’t be counted on to reproduce a recent race – especially at odds of 1-5.

Vulnerable Favorite

KAUAI KATIE (#4, 3-5): 4yo filly does deserve to be favored but should not be the heavy odds-on chalk that she’ll be; not thrilled with her lack of speed last out and will leave out of multi race wagers. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 11

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Race 12

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