Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 11, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

Vulnerable Favorite

NONE LIKE NOLAN (#4, 5-2) been on the sidelines since ok debut, but that was 11 months ago; returns on the turf after obviously having some problems. Will leave out of vertical and horizontal wagers. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

Live Longshot

CLAIMING VICTORY (#6, 12-1) exits Gulfstream stake that had some solid foes and drops into this N1X today; trainer using go-to jock here today. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 6

Spot Play

LIGHT WEIGHT (#1, 6-1) didn't break cleanly last time out, and that cost her; she will need to break alertly from the rail here but if she's able to do that she may be able to shake loose and control the pace, as this is a sprint that's a little short on speed. -Kenny Peck

Live Longshot

VINHDICATION SPOT (#3, 8-1): Switches back to dirt after bobbling at the start and chasing on yielding turf at 1 1/16 miles; she is also turning back to a sprint, as was the case for maiden win at 23-1 over the winter. --Dave Litfin

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Race 7

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Race 8

Ruffian Stakes by Kenny Peck

The Grade 2, $250,000 Ruffian Stakes drew a short field of six, and try as one might it's very tough to get past the favorites in the race.

FIFTYSHADESOFHAY (#6) is likely to be the shortest price of all, and for those seeking value that's unfortunate. She's going to be tough, as she not only has some of the better figures in the field but she also has some early speed, no small consideration. This is not a field flush with early zip, and the frontrunners figure to have the edge. FIFTYSHADESOF HAY, assuming she breaks cleanly (that wasn't the case two and three back), will be a factor from the start and she's going to be tough to beat if the fractions are mild.

Perhaps the value in the race will come from trying to beat a horse like GRACE HALL (#5), who has been away over a year. She's been working well, and trainr Bill Mott has decent stats with absentees, but taking a short price off this kind of layoff against a field of this quality seems silly. Also, she's likely looking to close, and she could be a victim of the race flow. MY WANDY'S GIRL (#2), stretching out a bit off her win in the Barbara Fritchie, seems like a better use, at a slightly better price. She was a close 2nd in this race last year after coming out of the Fritchie.

I'll play FIFTYSHADESOFHAY with MY WANDY'S GIRL in exactas, emphasizing FIFTYSHADESOFHAY on top with a small play the other way.

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Race 9

Man o' War Stakes by Michael Hammersly

We knew GRANDEUR was going to be good as a 3-year-old in 2012 when he came here from England and promptly won the Grade 2 Twilight Derby at Santa Anita. He was then an excellent second in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby after leaving himself far too much to do (was last of 14 turning for home). To show his quality he then went on to beat elders in the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup to close out his 3-year-old season. He’s continued his globetrotting ways and his success, including finishing second on a Group 2 in England last summer. He then came across the Pond again to try the Grade 1 Arlington Million but tough foes and a course he reportedly didn’t care for (trainer Jeremy Noseda says he likes firm footing but that course was too firm and hard) saw him run seventh. Back to England he went to win a stakes and faced some beasts in a Group 1 in Hong Kong to close out 2013.

This year has seen him stay close to home with three starts in England. All three starts came on synthetic footing at Lingfield, his first experience with that. Well, he won two of them to show his versatility in regard to footing. It’s very encouraging, too, that it also signifies he comes here in peak form and while he handled synthetic well he still appears to be a better horse on turf.

Well, he’s not only back to turf but after three 1 1/4-mile trips he gets more ground here (1 3/8 miles) which should play well for him and his closing style. He showed a bit more speed on Lingfield’s synthetic, too, so he doesn’t necessarily have to come from miles out of it.

It’s his first time here but as you can see he’s already handled numerous other turf courses around the world and synthetic so there’s no reason to believe he won’t handle this. And while he may prefer firm footing note a win on ‘good’ turf in England last September, meaning that even if the recent rains have softened the course up some it should be no detriment to GRANDEUR’s cause. He faces a good group but he comes here in peak form, with proven quality and there should be an ample pace to bolster his late run. Best of all, the presence of some other toughies can keep his price palatable, say in the 4-1 range.

IMAGINING may well go favored. He won the Bowl Game here last fall and then the Grade 3 Red Smith on the Aqueduct sod Nov. 16 to indicate the veteran was blossoming. After some time off he returned in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap Feb. 9 and after biding his time finished well for second. While the winner, Lochte, was a longshot that day, that race looks all the stronger as Lochte since ran second in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile and third in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile, so he’s the real deal.

Oh, and it doesn’t hurt this is being run on the inner where IMAGINING is merely 4-for-4.

FRAC DADDY has come into his own the past half year, topped off by a rousing win in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Ben Ali last month. Yes, that came on synthetic but this guy is already proven on turf and remember they thought enough of him last year to try four straight Grade 1s (Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby, Belmont). Maybe he’s now delivering on that promise.

AMIRA’S PRINCE is a tough, tough customer. He showed talent in Ireland but has really come into his own since coming to the U.S. He won his first four U.S. starts, was then sidelined over 10 months, was a decent third in the aforementioned Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap, less than a length behind IMAGINGING who was second. He was then a game second in the Grade 2 Mervin Muniz Jr. Handicap at the Fair Grounds March 29 when winner Skyring stole the race by setting dawdling splits and leading all the way to win – yet AMIRA’S PRINCE nearly got to him (beaten a neck).

REAL SOLUTION certainly showed his quality last year, running third in the Grade 1 Manhattan, finishing second in the Grade 1 Arlington Million (awarded the win via DQ) and third in the Grade 1 Turf Classic here. That earned him a shot at the Grade 1 BC Turf at Santa Anita Nov. 2 but he was no factor, finishing ninth. Not only were those some of the world’s best but could be he’d used up too much fuel in the Million and Turf Classic. He got a nice break and came back to be a non-threatening fourth in the Mervin Muniz. But not only did he likely need that race but as noted above the closers had no chance the way the race played out. A return to his form of last year makes him scary.

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Race 10

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