Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 10, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

Spot Play

OGHMA (#7, 2-1): Reclaimed out of a tough-trip third in the mud Mar. 29, and three weeks later raced in contention to the stretch before flattening out in a turf route; now or never. --Dave Litfin

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Race 7

Vulnerable Favorite

EDISON (#2, 2-1) when last seen, 3yo colt wired a field down at GP this winter; field was suspect, though, as runnerup finished 12th in turf subsequent turf MSW and third place finisher has now lost twice as the favorite in successive starts. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 8

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Race 9

Peter Pan Stakes by Michael Hammersly

There’s always some handwringing when a promising 3-year-old has an issue and goes off the Kentucky Derby trail. That was case recently as the promising TONALIST was getting over an illness (lung infection) which prevented him from making it to the Derby.

But in many ways a horse being forced off the trail turns out to be good thing in the long run. The road to the Derby is such a grind and the figurative carcasses of those who pushed to make it to Louisville and then failed litter the side of that trail. There are others who missed out on that brutal road and race, leaving them fresh and ready to snatch up the later prizes.

That could work for TONALIST, who’s hinted at significant ability for trainer Christophe Clement. He ran just fourth in his debut at a mile on Aqueduct’s big track, Nov. 16 but not only was it just his debut but a sluggish start didn’t help. To his credit he ran on decently. Oh, and the one-two finishers were a couple very nice Pletcher colts (Matterhorn, Harpoon).

After that came a freshening and move to Gulfstream. Clement added blinkers and more ground (1 1/8 miles) and wham! The son of top sire Tapit responded wonderfully. He bided his time, came with a strong wide run to grab the lead into the lane and draw off to win easily by 4 lengths. That’s a style you don’t often see be success at Gulfstream. The Beyer was heady, too (90). Next came a shot at winners there Feb. 22. He showed a bit more tactical speed to stalk the pace. He made a threatening move going to the far turn but couldn’t keep pace with the big winner but stayed on well to be a clear second. Oh, and the winner was another Pletcher toughie, Constitution, who merely came back to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby before being sidelined and forced to miss the Kentucky Derby in which he almost surely would have been the second choice in the wagering behind eventual favorite and winner California Chrome. The much-ballyhooed Mexikoma was third, another 2 1/4 lengths behind TONALIST.

He’d shown distance ability and that second to Constitution showed he had the necessary quality to get onto the onramp on the highway to the Derby. Alas, things didn’t work out as he got ill and hasn’t run since. But once Clement knew the Derby was off the table he could point for something else, namely, this race. The colt has been working in strong fashion including a bullet 1:00B here May 4. And with so much of the 3-year-old power having run last week in Louisville he doesn’t have to run against someone like Constitution in his first race back.

His Feb. 22 run showed a bit more tactical speed and professionalism, a bit more versatility to give his rider some options. The main speed here figures to be Oaklawn raider FABULOUS KID; most of the others are grinders. That mean TONALIST now has the ability to sit closer, keeping ‘KID in his sights so that guy doesn’t get away up front, or get away with murder pacewise. It gives TONALIST the chance to get first run on main rivals MATTERHORN, COMMISSIONER and OUR CARAVAN as they will likely have to go and get HIM.

While the two Pletcher horses – MATTERHORN and COMMISSIONER – will attract ample attention as they have some proven form, it’s interesting that Pletcher opted to run them here, instead of waiting a week and taking a crack at the Grade 1 Preakness at Pimlico, particularly as his Derby combatants are expected to come back in that race. Does that mean Pletcher doesn’t necessarily hold them in that high a regard?

That they’ll attract money may help your price on FABULOUS KID, who with his speed figures to dictate things up front and, with little other speed signed up, might not have to break much of a sweat in doing so. That may mean he’ll have plenty of gas in the tank for when TONALIST comes at him and while we like TONALIST to get him, can the Pletcher closers and the others run down a talented horse who had things his own way up front?

An interesting horse is Florida raider OUR CARAVAN. They thought enough of him after a smart 35-1 debut win at Gulfstream Dec. 14 to then try the Grade 2 Holy Bull and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Those didn’t go well at all. However, they next sent him to Calder for the Calder Derby, added blinkers and he looked like a new horse, drawing off to romp by 9 3/4 lengths. The horse he easily beat back into second, Ring Weekend, had just won the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby in smart fashion and was being considered for the Kentucky Derby. It may well be blinkers have this horse turning the corner, though you do worry some that he simply freaked that day or loves the Calder surface. But at least the presence of TONALIST and the two Pletchers can help keep him price palatable enough to use with TONALIST in the exotics.

Spot Play

OUR CARAVAN (#6, 5-1) ships up from Florida after destroying Calder Derby field, which included Ring Weekend; should sit ideal trip and be prominent in the lane. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 10

Spot Play

DR. ABRAMSON (#10, 15-1) was moving well at the end of his debut, a sprint, and he may appreciate the added distance today; grass a bigger question but it's worth taking a shot at this kind of price. -Kenny Peck

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