Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for June 7, 2014
Race 1 |
Spot PlayWABBAJACK (#8, 8-1) has competitive Beyers and solid works; he also has some speed, which he should use to gain position, as the race lacks pace. Also using JIMMY CONNORS (#9, 4-1), the possible pacesetter. -Kenny Peck
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Race 2 |
Vulnerable FavoriteKID CRUZ (#4, 5-2) will certainly attract strong support dropping into this spot out of Preakness, but he didn’t lift a foot that day at Pimlico; will toss in all horizontal wagers and use only in bottom rungs of tri and/or super. - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 3 |
Brooklyn Stakes by Byron KingERIUGENA, an Irish bred with a turf pedigree, has surprisingly found a home on dirt, winning two allowances in a row on the surface. He made a swooping move to win at Fair Grounds in late March against first-level allowance horses, and then followed it up with an even faster win in taking a second-level allowance at Churchill May 11. Now he gets the chance to go 1 ½ miles in the Brooklyn, a distance few American-bred horses want to travel. Upset choice. CAT BURGLAR, on the board in all six of his dirt races, just ran a close third in the Pimlico Special, and owns consistently the best Beyer Speed Figures; would be the choice if this race weren’t 1 ½ miles; could regress going this far. MICROMANAGE jumped up first-time blinkers in romping in 1 3/16-mile Skip Away before disappointing as the favorite in the Drosselmeyer, the local prep for the Brooklyn; tough to tell if he bounced or if he doesn’t care for the Belmont strip as much as other surfaces. The horse that won the Drosselmeyer, GROUND TRANSPORT, is also back in this spot, but coming off a perfect-trip win in the latter race when he got away with an easy lead, he could take a couple steps back with more pressure in the Brooklyn.
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Race 4 |
Jaipur Stakes by Mary RampelliniBen’s Cat is the story of the Grade 3, $300,000 Jaipur Invitational at Belmont Park on Saturday, as the Mid-Atlantic superstar will be out to conquer the big city in just his second-ever start in New York. But is he the horse to beat? Ben’s Cat, who can go over $2 million in earnings on Saturday, comes into the Jaipur on top of his game. He’s captured three stakes in his last three starts, and in September won at the six-furlong turf-sprint distance of the Jaipur in the $100,000 Laurel Dash. Overall, the Maryland-bred that officials said is to ship to town Saturday has compiled a 26-for-39 record since launching his career at 4. Of his wins, 16 have come on the grass. Despite the overwhelming stats, Ben’s Cat might find himself vulnerable from a pace standpoint on Saturday. He has tactical speed, of course, but Marchman might prove to be the controlling speed in the Jaipur. Marchman threatens to jump out on a clear lead off the five-furlong Turf Sprint at Churchill Downs, a Grade 3 race in which after a troubled start he was on the pace through a half-mile in 44.20 seconds. Marchman went on to win in a blazing 56 seconds, one start after capturing the Grade 3 Shakertown at Keeneland, a five and a half furlong turf sprint, in 1:02.40. Trainer Bret Calhoun said Marchman is versatile, not just as a horse who has won on turf and synthetic surfaces, but also from a distance standpoint as he is a stakes winner at a mile. He’s also won off the pace, and from his outside post there is a chance Marchman could track Spring to the Sky, a stakes winner who might have to go from his rail post in the field of 11, and Marriedtothemusic, a stakes winner cross-entered in the True North at Belmont on Friday. (If Marriedtothemusic goes in the Jaipur, he will be making his first start on the grass and his sire, Disco Rico, gets 9 percent winners from his first-time turfers and 12 percent winners overall on the grass.) Still, the bullet half-mile work of 46.80 seconds that Marchman turned at Churchill Downs before shipping Thursday to New York suggests he is razor-sharp for the Jaipur. Horses to use underneath Marchman and Ben’s Cat include Undrafted, who has placed in five stakes, and Positive Side, who has placed in three, following their second and third-place finishes to Marchman in the Turf Sprint. Positive Side, a 6-year-old, also missed by a neck to that one in the Shakertown, and is of further interest as he will be adding Lasix. It will be the first time Positive Side has raced on the diuretic since he was 4. Grant Forster, who did not have the horse then, said he bled last out in the Turf Sprint. Forster also believes the move to six furlongs will benefit the late-running Positive Side. Salto might not get the pace setup he needs on the cutback from a mile in the Jaipur, but he does exit a strong race. He finished third in the Grade 3 Appleton at Gulfstream, a race that has already produced a pair of next-out Grade 3 winners in Grand Tito and Five Iron.
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Race 5 |
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Race 6 |
Acorn Stakes by Marcus HershMY MISS SOPHIA will be formidable if she maintains peak form – but will she? No match for Untapable in the Kentucky Oaks, My Miss Sophia easily beat all the others in the race, confirming the form of her romp in the Gazelle Stakes. She is a very nice filly, no doubt, who should not be especially troubled by the cut back to a one-turn mile after a pair of two-turn, 9-furlong races. That said, My Miss Sophia didn’t even debut until February. She has come a long way in a short time, improving markedly from start 1 to start 2, start 2 to start 3, and start 3 to start 4. She has been based in Florida, Kentucky, and now New York. If My Miss Sophia turn out to be a star with a super constitution, all that might make no difference, but if she resides closer to the plane where normal horses exist, there’s a good chance that her form has at least reached a plateau, with regression definitely something to consider. My Miss Sophia can run a bit worse than she did in the Oaks and still win, but at 6-5 on the morning line, there’s reason to sniff around elsewhere. FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD is the most appealing alternative from a value perspective, though not if she’s bet down considerably from her 8-1 morning line, which I think is possible. She’s a real talent and suffered her only defeat on the square going two turns against Untapable at FG. The one-turn mile looks ideal and her work pattern suggests a filly who came out of her win in the Eight Belles on Oaks Day in fine shape. SWEET WHISKEY, My Miss Sophia’s 20-1 stable-mate, is a potential improver if she can work out a front-end trip. ARTEMIS AGROTERA can be forgiven her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies flop, and ran very well over the BEL surface last fall. Based on sharp works and trainer comments, she seems set for something decent in her 3-year-old debut.
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Race 7 |
Ogden Phipps Stakes by Kenny PeckFrom the perspective of a racing fan, the field for the Grade 1, $1,000,000 Ogden Phipps is perhaps the most interesting race on the undercard. For hardcore bettors, however, it may be one of the least attractive propositions. That's because the three clear favorites in the race -- CLOSE HATCHES (#1), BEHOLDER (#5) and PRINCESS OF SYLMAR (#6) -- hold a big edge, and none really offers much value. I sided with BEHOLDER, the likely favorite, as she has won four straight, and her tactical speed seems to give her an edge on the other two, but she's going to be very short. Those who are so inclined may take a stab at punching a cold exacta with her over PRINCESS OF SYLMAR, but playing the two favorites in exactas in short fields is hardly compelling, and it's a long-term loser. If there a case to be made for any of the other three -- all at least 20-1 on the Morning Line -- it would be more compelling from a betting perspective, but as it stands it seems as if it will be tough to get much value out of this year's edition of the Ogden Phipps. -Kenny Peck
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Race 8 |
Just A Game Stakes by Michael HammerslyThere’s a sense of urgency for STEPHANI’E’S KITTEN to confirm that she can again be all that. After a stellar start to the 2013 season that saw her win a couple graded stakes including this very race she had a physical setback and lost the remainder of that year. No matter, you thought. She was cranked up for a return this spring in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at KEE April 12 and the world would be right. Oops. She had some trouble to be sure; she never really got a clear run in the lane. It wasn’t that she had to check or steady hard. It was more like a shopper trying to walk through the mall the day before Christmas: stop, start, hesitate, change lanes. You know the drill. But even with that she just didn’t show the same spark. She’d originally been carded to make her return a month earlier at Tampa Bay Downs (Grade 3 Hillsborough), at least according to her connections, and the warning flags first went up there when she didn’t show up in that race. More flags went up when her Wiley run wasn’t up to her 2013 standard. The good news is she shows up HERE, in a very tough race where trainer Chad Brown knew exactly what kind of toughies he’d be running into. She’s been working steadily since and she won’t care if it’s firm, good, soft, whatever. She runs on anything. She’s been working in solid, steady fashion since the Jenny Wiley and while she handles anything from 7-9 furlongs THIS mile trip may actually be her best game (4 for 5). From a tactical standpoint she figures to bide her time and come with a rush. She doesn’t have to come late, either. When she won this race last year she was dueling turning for home, so she can make an early move if need be. The pace should be solid. ML favorite DISCREET MARQ is the main speed, though SOMALI LEMONADE doesn’t figure to let her just lollygag up front. COFFEE CLIQUE has some speed as well. Still, it doesn’t figure to be some sizzling pace, meaning STEPHANIE’S KITTEN likely WILL need to get involved earlier. But that’s a good thing – in the Jenny Wiley she waited and got bogged down in traffic. An earlier move here could result in finding a clear lane for her best work. And best of all, her lackluster result in the Jenny Wiley and some still competition here means she’ll be a price that a couple months ago you likely never would have expected, probably in the 4-1 range. DISCREET MARQ is absolutely legit. She dueled and darn near won the Jenny Wiley, which was her first race of the year, after just missing by a lip in another Grade 1, the Matriarch, at BHP last fall. While her natural gallop can carry her to the lead, she’s by no means a speed-crazy need-the-lead type. In fact, you look back to her Pebbles win here last fall she came from off the pace that day. She’s continued to work well and there’s every reason to believe she’ll do as she’s done the past 20 months or so, namely, fire. BETTER LUCKY is a proven commodity as well. She was a sharp 2nd to STEPHANIE’S KITTEN in this race last year. In fact, she earned her career-top Beyer that day (101) when falling a half-length shy to ‘KITTEN. And in the fall of 2012 she was the one having her picture taken at the end of the Grade 1 Matriarch on the West Coast. She comes off a solid 2nd in the Grade 1 Madison on KEE’s Polytrack to Judy the Beauty, who only happens to be one of the top two or three sprinting distaffers in the lane. That was this gal’s first try on synthetic and her first sprint in almost two years. While she ran well there and such an effort gives them options, this may be her best game and her versatility gives her rider all sorts of options. Giving you those three, who figure to be the three favorites in this race, is surely by no means earthshaking. But one gal in here who may get ignored at the windows and who presents an intriguing exotics play is DAME MARIE. She looked like a new gal when she won a strong optional claimer on the CD sod Nov. 29. After nearly three months off she came back in the Grade 3 The Very One at GP but she was no factor at any point. Likely the culprit was a new, longer distance she’d never tried before (11fs). She was freshened and returned to a mile in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile at CD on the Kentucky Derby undercard. At a hefty 36-1 she bided her time, came with a strong run into the lane to grab the lead by midstretch looking poised to spring the big upset. Alas, COFFEE CLIQUE rerallied to edge DAME MARIE. But that good run showed a couple things. First, there were no ill effects from her The Very One try. Second, that it’s indeed this type of distance she prefers and third, she does have ample quality and is not a fish out of water vs. this kind.
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Race 9 |
Metropolitan Handicap by Marcus HershPALACE MALICE is the best horse in the Metropolitan Handicap. Moreover, he loves Belmont Park and showed in the Westchester – albeit against foes who had basically zero chance to beat him – that this one-turn-mile thing is a go. There was much wailing and gnashing of teeth – and, I’d assume, a raising of the morning-line to 8/5 – when Palace Malice drew post 1, with trainer Todd Pletcher expressing acute disappointment. On raw post position stats alone, the draw really is not bad: In the last 10 years, post 1 in one-mile Belmont dirt races has 188-1146, a strike rate of 16-percent, and during that period, no post save 11 (7-39) has produced a higher percentage of one-mile winners. The issue, evidently, is that Palace Malice is a presser / stalker kind of runner at this distance, and he is not going to get his ideal journey from the rail. In GOLDENCENTS, BROADWAY EMPIRE, and perhaps MORENO, there’s serious speed to his outside, and Palace Malice risks getting sawed off, shuffled back, stuck in traffic – all sorts of nasty stuff. Is he good enough to overcome? Probably. But Palace Malice is nowhere near as appealing at a short price now than had he drawn a cozy midfield post. And if not Palace Malice, than this Metropolitan really opens up. NORMANDY INVASION has often been overbet and was ridiculously heavily favored over Palace Malice in the New Orleans Handicap, but his price might be square enough Saturday. He’s been pointed for this race since being scratched several days before the Churchill Downs Handicap with a minor issue, and has since turned in a string of encouraging drills over the training track at Saratoga. With post 9, Normandy Invasion has the sort of draw that would’ve been perfect for Palace Malice, and he’s the one in line for a great stalking trip. There are several competent closers, but I narrowly prefer CENTRAL BANKER, who has shown serious signs since last summer, and seems to be developing strongly this spring. He was powerful and game in the Churchill Downs, and his pattern suggests to me potential improvement again today. He has enough pace not to fall out the back door even if the fractions, as seem likely, are hot. I rate SHAKIN IT UP a small notch below Central Banker – but only a small notch, and his wide draw should not be a deal-breaker given the likely race shape. CLEARLY NOW seems to have a small but loyal and vocal legion of supporters, but he has never broken through against really good competition like this. On one hand, the turn back in distance seems like it could suit MORENO, but his speed might in the end prove more effective in two-turn races, though he did run well at 8.5fs at BEL last year. But he’ll want to stay close, and Goldencents, who is a very good horse but super-ambitiously spotted for his seasonal debut, is going to seriously test anyone who sticks with him. It’s a superb field, a fascinating challenge, and Palace Malice’s draw has opened the door to value.
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Race 10 |
Manhattan Stakes Analysis by Mary RampelliniIt’s simple to build strong cases for Imagining and Seek Again in the Grade 1, $1 million Manhattan at Belmont Park on Saturday. But dig deeper and there’s some real value to be found in the mile and a quarter turf race that immediately precedes the Belmont Stakes. The forecast for Saturday is a high of 85 degrees, and with no precipitation anticipated until then, the course that started out good for Friday’s card could be firm come Saturday. Imagining picked off his eighth turf win at Belmont last month, in the Grade 1 Man O’War. His familiarity with the local surface, as well as the versatility he showed in taking the race box-to-wire are among the reasons he will vie for favoritism. He’s in the zone, too, as a winner of three of his last four starts. Further, Imagining is one of the best-bred runners in the field as a son of Giant’s Causeway and Daydreaming, a Grade 2 winner of $696,680. Seek Again, meanwhile, will get good play after missing by a head to two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan in last month’s Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. One start prior, he won at the mile and a quarter distance of the Manhattan in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. Seek Again has been working at Belmont in preparation for what will be his third start of the year, and his third career race on Lasix. But the list of win candidates is hardly two deep in the 10-horse Manhattan. Real Solution, at 5-1 on the morning line, is the kind of horse who might be sitting on a breakout race. He’s fired some competitive ones since arriving from Italy, and last year was even placed first in the Grade 1 Arlington Million after missing by a head in the race run over the same distance as the Manhattan. But perhaps the spotlight will be his alone Saturday. Real Solution brings an ascending Beyer Speed Figure pattern into Saturday’s race, can stalk the leaders, and might benefit from firm ground after catching soft then good turf in his two starts in 2014. He’s also at home at Belmont and has a strong New York trainer-jockey team in Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Grandeur, at 5-1, will be first Lasix following his third-place finish in the Man O’War. He has had more time to acclimate to both North America and Belmont’s course after shipping in from England for the race run May 11. Since then, Grandeur has worked twice at Belmont. Five Iron, at 15-1, is a multiple Grade 3 winner who used his speed to take the Fort Marcy wire-to-wire last out at Belmont. He did so over good turf, and for the effort earned what ranks as this field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure. He’s one to catch, although there is the concern he might be pressed by Chamois, who is stretching out from a mile and a sixteenth and who is bred for the distance task as a son of the Group 1-winning marathon mare Meridiana. Hey Leroy, at 12-1, was well-flattered following his Grade 3 Appleton win at Gulfstream, with a pair of runners he defeated, Grand Tito and Five Iron, both coming back to take Grade 3 races between Calder and Belmont. Boisterous, at 8-1 for trainer Todd Pletcher, was third behind Wise Dan and Seek Again in the Turf Classic at Churchill and last year won the Man O’War.
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Race 11 |
Belmont Stakes by Marcus HershCALIFORNIA CHROME is a wonderful racehorse who comes packaged with a great narrative and likeable connections. If he wins the Belmont and the Triple Crown, the celebration and adulation need not be tempered. That out of the way – C Chrome is an obvious bet-against in the Belmont. Not that he should be thrown out, ignored in multi-race wagers and vertical bets. He is an odds-on favorite in a difficult spot. The price on a favorite in a major race that brings in “dumb” money tends to sag under normal circumstances, and going for a Triple Crown before a huge on-track crowd is not normal. C Chrome’s price in the win pool will plummet accordingly, though he does not figure to be as underlaid in more complex multi-race pools that don’t draw as much play from casual bettors. The horse I’ve long thought would beat C Chrome in the Belmont is WICKED STRONG, and nothing has happened to change my outlook. Wicked Strong seems better suited on pedigree and style to 12 furlongs than C Chrome and is back at home after a trip to the Derby, where a terrible draw and a tough trip doomed his chances. This is a horse with some quirks and a fiery temperament; racing out of his own stall is important. Moreover, he has the running style of horses that have run well in the Belmont from off the pace. At this distance, and with a moderate pace likely, Wicked Strong should race midpack and – if he is going to do some running – begin moving up before the far turn and have the lead in sight by the top of the stretch. The way I see the race unfolding, Wicked Strong makes a sustained run at C Chrome in the homestretch and simply wears him down. But everyone has their own vision in mind. The case for TONALIST is decent. He has a fast recent race, a great distance pedigree, has reportedly been training well, and has room to improve. RIDE ON CURLIN did not look like he was going to pass C Chrome at any distance in the Preakness; the winner already had taken his heart away when he turned him back at the eighth pole. COMMANDING CURVE has but one race on his resume, the Derby, where he had a clean run, to suggest he could contend, and his stretch-running tendencies are a historical misfit in this race. MEDAL COUNT’s strongest asset, if you follow the experts, is his confidence his trainer espoused pre-Kentucky Derby. What dirt form does he have to contend? MATTERHORN must have trained like a monster (note bullets) in May to make Mott think Belmont. He need to improve 10-15 lengths. GENERAL A ROD has two tough Triple Crown trips, but what’s his ceiling? SAMRAAT did not say the 10fs of the Derby; how will he get 12? MATTERHORN and COMMISSIONER are plodders who would be 50-percent higher-priced were their trainer obscure. There is a lot of talk about the random nature of Belmont results in recent years, but approaching the race that way means just stabbing. Don’t stab. Choose your logical alternative to the underlaid favorite and make your play. That’s where the value lies – even if you root in your heart for the Triple Crown.
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Race 12 |
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Race 13 |
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