Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for June 29, 2014

Race 1

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Vulnerable Favorite

FIRST WHIPPOORWILL (#10, 3-1): 6 year old mare returns to the races off the seven month layoff; feel she will need a couple races to get back to her old form, if she does at all. - Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Victory Ride Stakes by Michael Hammersly

This is something of an audition. The Victory Ride provides a litmus test for fillies: are good enough to be considered a Grade 1 Test filly? None of the big 3-year-old fillies are in here, so it’s tougher to gauge the quality of this bunch, but don’t let that mislead you. There are some fast gals in here and you may well be talking about them in another few weeks at Saratoga.

One of the most intriguing aspects is the abundance of speed. We’re talking big speed, too. In this field of seven no less than five of them had the lead at the first margin call. All give still had the lead at the pace call (2nd call). Four of the five still had the lead at the stretch call and all four of those stayed on to win. The only one who didn’t have the lead at the stretch call or at the wire still carried her speed well enough to finish second. In other words, there appears to be an abundance of pace. And even if there is some gap in the relative speed of the five there still figures to be a hefty argument early for pacesetting duties.

And, well, you know what that means – that this race looks ripe to be taken from off the pace.

MILAM fits the bill. Not only might the race-shape play to her strength but there’s no denying she’s got quality. She comes off an excellent rallying second in the Grade 3 Eight Belles on the Kentucky Oaks undercard at CD May 2. The gal she couldn’t quite get to, winner Fiftyshadesofgold, is almost CERTAINLY Test filly. Oh, and the gal who ran third in the Eight Belles, over three lengths behind MILAM, Cash Control, came right back to win.

But don’t assume she’s just closer who needs all the breaks in terms of pace and traffic. She won her debut wire-to-wire last summer. She won a tough optional claimer in the fall from just off the pace and romped in a stakes at Calder this winter (by 8 lengths) while contesting the pace. In other words, she can do whatever is required stylewise.

And if you’re worried that she’s never raced here than this should alleviate that concern: she’s run big on ELP dirt, CD dirt, KEE synthetic, GP dirt and CRC dirt, so odds are she’ll have no issue with the footing here. A bullet :47B at CD June 14 (the best of 90 to work 4fs there that day!) shows she’s feeling spry. Rider Jose Lezcano figures to utilize some of her tactical speed to at least get position and keep the speedsters in his sights. A competitive field may keep your price palatable, too, say in the 5-2/3-1 range.

The best of the speed may be RED VELVET. The daughter of City Zip has won three of four, her lone loss (a second no less) came in her first start this year at PRX, also her first start in over 10 months. After that she laughed at Pennsylvania-bred N1X foes at PEN May 2 by 9 3/4 lengths when leading all the way and winning geared down and then blitzed open foes in the Jersey Girl here May 26. She did that in wire-to-wire manner, waltzing home some 5 3/4 lengths clear.

This is a tougher spot to be sure, not only due to the overall quality of opposition but the presence of a number of other speed types. But if you can envision one gal in here being the quickest and maybe turning what appears a speed-laden field into a lone F trip (always remember Reraise in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint years ago) then she seems the top candidate.

And you can certainly envision her battling long and hard and maybe coming up just a tad short, meaning she deserves plenty of respect exacta-speaking. MISS BEHAVIOUR led wire-to-wire to win the Ms. Preakness at 6 furlongs on Black-Eyed Susan undercard at PIM May 16. That win looks even better when you note third-finisher Jojo Warrior came back to win the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks at SA last week.

While this gal has speed she’s by no means a need-the-lead type. She has the speed to get position but can certainly stalk and finish. She won the Grade 2 Matron and was second in the Sharp Cat here last fall so you know the track is no issue. A bullet :58.20 move at LRL June 12 says she holds her edge and she may fall into the same type of trip as MILAM.

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Spot Play

LIL’ ZILLA (#9 ,6-1) returns to the races after pair of ok efforts turf sprinting as a 2yo last summer; gets trainer change to solid low-profile trainer using his go-to jock. - Chuck Kuehhas

Live Longshot

KEVIN’S STEEL (#3, 20-1): Although she won’t be the 58-1 odds of her last race, the price should still be fairly generous for this 5-year-old maiden who is back to a manageable spot after a middle move from post 12. --Dave Litfin

Closer Looks >>