Belmont: DRF Plus handicapping report for June 28, 2014

Race 1 Formulator PPs

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G1 Mother Goose Stakes By Marcus Hersh

You know how in a total blowout race the camera operator will sometimes shift off the winner to show the distant battle for second in the homestretch? That’s a little like handicapping the Mother Goose.

I mean, go ahead, take a swing at beating UNTAPABLE. If you’re not sending it in, there’s not a lot to lose going against any 1/5 morning-line shot. The filly is switching from two turns to one, going to Belmont for the first time, etc. But she’s so much better than the horses she faces, all that stuff seems marginal to me. In fact, if she handles the surface at BEL, she should love this race configuration. Chalk another romp up, is the way I see it.

But what about the camera shot on the distant race for second? It’s a bit of a guessing game. HOUSE RULES was away very poorly from an inside draw last out in the one-mile Acorn, and since her best race came at nine furlongs, she might want a little more distance and a slower pace, in any case. Improvement back to her Florida best gives her a strong exacta chance.

STOPCHARGINGMARIA was slow to come around this year after a good 2-year-old campaign. Her third at BEL in the G1 Frizette last year suggests she could move forward again after she stepped forward to win a soft edition of the Black Eyed Susan last out.

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Spot Play

CUSHION (#8, 3-1) Euro import gets Lasix and Rosario for stateside debut here today; multiple losses as favorite a bit of concern but feel she’s much better than these.-Chuck Kuehhas

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The New York (Belmont Grade 2, Race 9) by Randy Goulding

It is tough to separate RIPOSTE and TANNERY in the Grade 2 New York but we are leaning towards RIPOSTE who has improved since adding Lasix two back. She was very impressive winning the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay in her first start in New York and the horse she easily handled, Abaco, is a Grade 3 winner who was coming off a narrow loss in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. RIPOSTE was good enough to overcome a poor start to win a Group 2 race at Ascot as a 3-year-old last year and it looks like she is starting to adjust to racing in North America. She is also a half-sister to $1.9 million multiple Grade 1 winner Powerscour, who won the Arlington Million twice, so the sky could be the limit. She took them all the way in the Sheepshead but she doesn’t need the lead and should get a nice trip from just off VIVA RAFAELA who comes up a bit short in the class department.

TANNERY is the only Grade 1 winner in the field and her win came going 1 1/4 miles in the E. P. Taylor at Woodbine. She hasn’t misfired since she ran a dull race in this race last year but she may have bounced after winning the Sheepshead Bay. She figures to move forward after beating Grade 3 Jenny Wiley winner Overhead in a minor stakes in her first start of the year. The past five years her trainer has a 21 percent strike rate with horses making their second start following a layoff and last year TANNERY won the Sheepshead after tuning up in a minor stakes at Belmont. Sound familiar?

The only other possibility is INIMITABLE ROMANEE who has blossomed since she started going marathon distances last November. We are still trying to figure out how she was able to win the Grade 3 Bewitch in her last start at Keeneland on April 29. Garcia had to use her pretty hard early to gain position after breaking from the 12-hole in the 1 1/2 miles race. She was also boxed in most of the way around the stretch turn and then finished full of run to get up in the last stride when she finally moved outside in the stretch. It had to be a tough race on her and Motion has given her plenty of time to recover. The past five years he has a 22 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 61-180 days so she should be ready to go.

With only six horses there isn’t going to be a lot of value offered but if RIPOSTE continues to improve she might look like an overlay at her morning-line odds of 2-1. We’ll key her on top of TANNERY and INIMITABLE ROMANEE in the exacta and use VIVA RAFAELA below them in the exotics.

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Live Longshot

WHY NOT WHISKEY (#6, 8-1): It could be happy hour indeed if this 5-year-old stretch runner shows routine improvement in his second start of the year, after being slow to settle and finishing with good energy four weeks ago; back with New York-breds.-Dave Litfin

Vulnerable Favorite

SNEAKY KITTEN (#4, 7-2) has nine seconds in 16 career starts and is second off the layoff today; adds blinkers which may be a sign of desperation.-Chuck Kuehhas

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