Belmont: Daily Game Plan for Thursday, July 10

Race 1

Heartofthetemple

Young sire Temple City 0 for first 7 starters, 0 for 1 with turf starters, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 4 of 15 for $326K, 1 fo r7 on turf including a G3 SW, also G1/G2 SP on turf; dam's 9 foals are all winners including Zozimus (2 wins, both on turf, $89K) and Oh Deanne O (4 wins, 3 on turf, $154K, SP on turf); dam won 1 of 8 for $58K, 1 2nd from 3 turf tries; plenty of works for a trainer well known for firing first out.

Eskenformoney

Young sire Eskendereya 0 for first 4 starters, 0 for 1 with turf starters; sire hugely talented, won 4 of 6 for $725K, 2nd in only turf start, won G1 Wood, also G2 SW, would have been Ky. Derby favorite but was injured prior; dam's 1st foal; dam won 1 of 6 for $43K, off board only turf start; plenty of good work for a trainer who is strong first out.

Cool Comfort

Sire Big Brown gets over 16% 2yuo debut winners, over 12% first time turf winners, over 13% overall turf winners; sire won 7 of 8 for $3.6 million, including G1 Ky. Derby, G1 Preakness, G1 Florida Derby, won both turf starts, was champion 3yo; dam's 2 foals are winners including Earth Zeus (2 wins, $203K in Japan); dam won 1 of 3 for $46K, off board only turf try; been working along steadily for sharp first-out-win trainer Ward.

On Oaks Day

Sire Malibu Moon gets over 16% 2yo debut winners, over 9% first time turf winners, over 10% overall turf winners, sired 2013 G1 Ky. Derby winner Orb; sire won 1 of 2 for $33K; unraced dam has 2 winners from 4 foals including Robbery's Den (5 wins, 4-0-1-1 onturf, $32K); bullet move at AQU July 2 hints at ability.

Suruj Devi

Sire Leroidesanimaux gets over 13% 2yo debut winners, over 20% first time turf winners, over 14% overall turf winners; sire won 9 of 13 for $1.6 million, won G1 Citation, G1 Atto Mile, G1 Kilroe Mile, was G1 SP in Brazil, 2nd in G1 BC Mile; unraced dam has 2 winners from 4 foals including Greatness Secret (1 win, $20K).

Nicky's Brown Miss

Sire Big Brown gets over 12% first time turf winners, over 13% overall turf winners; sire won 7 of 8 for $3.6 million, including G1 Ky. Derby, G1 Preakness, G1 Florida Derby, won both turf starts, was champion 3yo; dam's 1st foal; dam won 4 of 23 for $158K, off board in 2 turf tries; 6th in first 2 starts, both dirt sprints at MTH in June; at least has an experience edge on these; maybe the surface switch will get her going.

Isabella Sings

Young sire Eskendereya 0 for first 4 starters, 0 for 1 with turf starters; sire hugely talented, won 4 of 6 for $725K, 2nd in only turf start, won G1 Wood, also G2 SW, would have been Ky. Derby favorite but was injured prior; dam has 2 winners from 3 foals including Alaura Michele (4 wins, all on turf, $205K, 2 SWs on turf); dam won 1 of 12 for $41K, was SP on turf in France; trainer well known for debut-win ability.

Race 2

Perfect American

Not sure why he is moving up in price after getting beat by double-digits in his last two starts; in fact there has only been one time he hasn't lost by double-digits in his seven-race career; hard to see him turning things around coming back this quickly; passing.

Eight Cents

4-year-old has done his best work going longer but he finished third going 6 1/2 furlongs two back and the race produced a couple of next out winners; he didn't fire in his latest but he came back with a sharp work July 1 and he gets some weight off with Rice taking the call; he's probably not the winner, but he's finished in the tri in half of his starts so he should be considered for the exotics.

Better Man

Takes the plunge and the past five years Terranova has a 17 percent strike rate with horses running for a claiming price for the first time; he comes out of a key race and winner came back to win a first-level allowance race on the lawn with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure; half to $141K stakes-placed Tech Fall was a vet scratch May 30 but he's worked well leading up to this and Rosario is attracted; contender.

Grand Strand

$300K yearling is obviously the one to beat with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure staring us in the face; there are some concerns with him taking the plunge following a solid race, but he is in very good hands and the past five years Jerkens has a 27 percent strike rate with horses going from MSW to maiden claiming; despite the concerns he's still the pick.

Nicholson

His Beyer Speed Figures are headed in the right direction but this seems like a tough spot for a horse that couldn't win for $30K in his last start and then went on the shelf; barn is winning races at a 32 percent clip at the meet, however, so Gyarmati knows where to spot them; horse that beat him last time finished third in a $25K n/w/2 with a 66 Beyer Speed Figure; nonetheless, others look more attractive.

Peanutsnpopcorn

Half-brother to four winners including $115K stakes-placed Batter Up ran an even race in his debut and figures to improve with a race behind him; the past five years Zito has a 16 percent strike rate with second-time starters; he's another one that probably wants more distance but can see him getting up in time to work his way into the exotics.

Alexndeed

Second from Zito just missed when he took the plunge in his latest and it probably helped that he was wearing blinkers for the first time; would like him a lot better if was coming back a little sooner; nonetheless, Zito can have them ready to roll coming off this type of break and with his good tactical speed he should get a nice trip from this post; another exotics possibility.

Race 4

Spot Play

ACADEMYPERFORMANCE (#9, 5-2): After three turf tries with varying pace tactics, this filly – who cost a mere $6,000 last fall – is dropping to a realistic spot against $40,000 maidens; she’ll have a clear shot from the outside, and may offer an enhanced stretch kick turning back to a long sprint. --Dave Litfin

Elissa Town

If she can regain the form that she displayed in her second and third career starts, she can threaten for the top spot, but it's kind of tough to overlook what she's done in her three starts this year; prefer to keep looking around in here.

Crashing Conclave

She showed a little something just two starts back and have to respect the fact that she's making her first start for a barn that has hit at a 35% clip at this meeting; she's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 5 of 23 starts for 292k, including 5 of 22 turf starts for 291k; Franco is 1-for-1 riding for this barn at the current stand.

Good Catholic Girl

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam won once from eight starts for 13k, including 0-for-2 over turf; they were looking to get this miss over turf for her career debut, and now she drops in with maiden claiming competition.

Fast Z

Limited available data on sire with regard to his turf starters, and he won 2 of 21 starts for 58k, including 0-for-2 over turf, during his racing career, and dam was unraced; she wasn't able to get much going in her career debut and her connections will hope for better with a surface switch.

Kushmee Kat

There was some improvement along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in her turf debut in her latest outing, but she's yet to run a race that is strong enough to suggest that she can have a say in the outcome in this spot.

Causeways Friend

Giant's Causeway is a strong influence as a turf sire, and even though this filly has yet to show up with a truly competitive performance, she has at least mild appeal while making her first start with Lasix and blinkers.

Pitched

Like the idea of getting this filly back over dirt after a couple of turf attempts, and if this race has to be moved to the main track, her dirt form has been solid enough to give her a competitive look in this spot; Rice has won with 3 of 7 (43%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Lonely Teardrops

La-bred makes her NY racing debut off a trainer change and she's done a little bit of running in two of her three turf starts, plus she was last seen in a productive race; runner up from latest won next out at EvD on 5/1 going 1m vs. MSW rivals with a 56 Beyer and third-place finisher won next out at LaD on 5/3 going 7 1/2f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 63 Beyer.

Enchanted Dreams

She has turf in her pedigree and she's clearly fast enough to get herself into the mix against these, but this is a 14-race maiden, and that can't be ignored when considering her for the top spot; nevertheless, she's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Academyperformance

Not only does she boasts the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, but that 66 Beyer she earned three races back is the top figure in this field; she has turf in her pedigree and she has to be respected as a top contender while dropping in with maiden claimers for the first time.

Race 5

Regent's House

Came out smokin' on the inner March 9 to whip maidens; start No. 2 vs. this caliber on the big AQU track April 11, well, that didn't go so well as the heavy favorite; surely stumbling badly at the start didn't help; been given plenty of time since, has worked well, gets Rosario and it's most encouraging there's no class drop for the boys in blue.

Dear Mama (ARG)

Invades from Argentina where she did some good work; certainly shown flashes of talent in the U.S. in the a.m. as she's been working strongly at CD (2 recent bullets); still, it's first time in the U.S. first time in new surroundings, first action in almost 6 months and she's not facing a bunch of patsies so as you can see there are hurdles.

Miss Melinda

Game 3rd vs. this kind at GP March 28 shows she belongs; came here for 7f try at this level May 17 but backed out of it after chasing the pace; freshened since by Mott, who of course is superb off the bench; nice to see no drop and while it was a month and a day from her last race to her next work she comes into this off a SAR training track bullet which hints she's ready, as you'd expect with Mr. Mott calling the shots.

Voodoo Tales

Tried this caliber after 4 months off here May 17, chased the pace and was no factor; well, she apparently got what she needed out of that race, however, as she came back here June 11 with a class drop and just laughed at starter allowance foes; obvioulsy back on her game and then some and it's nice to see Esler gives her another crack at this caliber and that Castellano, who was up for that romping win, stays with her.

Sweet Shirley Mae

Been knocking on the door in 4 starts this year with 2 2nds and a 3rd; lone dull run came on KEE's Polytrack, which she appaently didn't care for; seems to have changed her style this year; she showed ample tactical speed at times in 2012 and early last year but now she appears to be a dead stone closer; only other start here resulted in her maiden win; freshened since finishing well for 2nd at CD at this level and she figures to be coming again; but with her style can she affored to give nice gals like the ones she faces today such a headstart and first run, hmmmmm?

Sushan

Heading the right way; was no factor on turf at GP April 18 but moved back to dirt at MTH and ran on decently for 2nd, then rallied gamely to beat maidens in the mud here June 13; worked well since and Bravo stays; surely will need another step forward to be a factor vs. this much tougher bunch but that's by no means out of reach.

Smashing

True to her name on AQU's big track April 25 as she whipped maidens; tried this level here June 8, broke through the gate prior to the start and then pressed the pace and ran 4th as the favorite; surely her pre-start antics cost her some energy; good news is there's no layoff since, no drop and she posted a bullet work July 1 to indicate there are no ill effects.

Race 7

Ginger's Joe

Moves to the fence for his return to this level after offering little in the off the turfer last time; gelding hasn't been close in a long time and he goes for a barn that is winless on the year; not much to suggest this longshot will have much of an impact today; have to pass on him.

One More Chief

MTO will cut back a panel if rain forces this one to the dirt; statebred faces open company for the initial time today with a slow interim breeze on his tab; he does have some sprint speed and he broke his maiden over a wet track upstart last summer; he's not in very good form right now, but if the rains come he warrants a look.

Flowing Mane

He's shown little in 2 longer turf spins at the level since returning from 5 months on the shelf; gelding was ok over the course last year and he did show a little improved early interest last time, but he doesn't look to be a threat to get back on track in this spot.

Out of Your Mind

Should be better with his first start in half a year behind him and he'll shed some weight with a bug named for this; return try at the level wasn't that much, though, and this barn doesn't win a lot of races; been a while since that maiden score and he doesn't appear to be any closer to getting back to the winner's circle in this spot.

Thunder's Rollin'

Eleventh time proved the charm for this MTO as he ran away from Churchill maidens in the mud a few weeks back; he's quick so he figures to be involved from the bell and he does lure a top pilot; he'll tackle winners for the initial time here while having new surroundings to deal with and he owns the best recent final figures in the heat so he's going to take plenty of tote support if the rains come, but if he runs back to any of his recent efforts he should prove tough to down.

Brendan G

Sophomore has been a popular claim of late and now he'll step up to face better in his turf debut for a barn that isn't known for its work with moving runners to the infield; sire is just 7 for 184 with his initial surface runners and the dam never tried the green prior to dropping foals (including 483K earner Electrical Carlita who won 14 main track sprints) who were a combined 0 for 6 over the footing; wet track slate suggests he'd be better off if this were moved off the lawn.

Mud Slide Slim

Shipper turns back to a one turn sprint after tiring from a stalking trip in his turf debut at Penn National; he broke his maiden sprinting 2 back on dirt and maybe he's got a little bottom from that last out route spin; gets a solid journeyman pilot for his local debut and doesn't look to face any killers.

Wally Did It

Beaten chalk came on late after suffering a wide trip in his first start of the year at the level and now he'll get an added panel; he's been given a little extra time to recover from his last and he'll get the services of another top pilot for this one; his surface efforts out of town last season fit quite well in this spot; with an honest clip in front of him he should prove tough to down.

Cool Cat Tale

Don't know much about the new outfit that will put this lightly raced gelding on the green for the first time here; he did show good speed in breaking his maiden on the main track earlier in the meeting and his sire does get 10% first time surface winners from his offspring; dam never tried the green, though, and her foals are a combined 0 for 6 over the stuff.

Brass Pear

MTO brings plenty of speed with him for the move back to the N2L claiming ranks after setting the pace against fellow statebreds last time; his stamina is a question of late and that's not going to help him as he draws outside the other speed in the heat; hasn't run very well over wet ground and looks to have his work cut out for him if the rains come.

You Tarzan

Outside drawn gelding makes his first start in more than 7 months for a low profile outfit that hasn't started too many here; his turf efforts last year were nothing to get excited about and he boasts just a couple of recent drills for his return; can only watch him here.

Race 8

Sinistra

Comes off a sharp win over NY-bred optional claimers here June 21; last couple tries vs. opens foes like this weren't very pretty but in his defense, the first came last October when he wasn't that sharp to begin with and other here May 10 came on turf, which he apparently didn't relish; this time he comes here riding high and remember just under 5 months ago he narrowly lost to a horse named Zivo in an NY-bred stakes on the inner and that guy has won numerous stakes since including last Saturday's G2 Suburban.

Box Office

Looks like one of the ones; 3 straight 2nds at about this game and level show him a solid fit; ample speed to be in it from the start but he's in no way a need-the-lead type; only prior start here resulted in a victory; Servis unlucky not to have a few more wins this meet what with all those close calls (31 starts, 3 1sts, 14 2nds); this guy may help remedy that.

Bernardo

Toss that Commentator try (to Zivo, who came back to win last Saturday's G2 Suburban) and you're left with a string of good races; in fact, it's nice to see that after that dull run he came back to be a nice 3rd at this level here June 7; surely fits and not he whipped Sinistra at AQU April 24; done some of his best work here, too (2 of his 3 wins have come here).

Roman Approval

Plenty of big efforts in Panama; the horse he chased in his last 3 starts there (Tonito M) was among the elite there and he's now based in SoCal and just ran 3rd in the G2 Los Alamitos Derby behind monster Shared Belief; first U.S. start came here at this level and was encouraging as he ran 2nd; sure, he was no threat to a romping winner (beaten 9 1/4 lengths) but he was 8 lengths clear of 3rd; so, there's talent here and now he has a race under his belt in the U.S. and a race over this track.

Scarly Charly

That was a huge, huge step up in class last time as he went from a maiden win at SA to trying the game's elite in the G1 Met Mile here June 7; to his credit he ran 7th and there were some top-class boys behind him; this is a much better situation and a bullet :59.60B here June 29 shows there are no ill effects from being thrown into the deepest end of the pool; plenty of strong Beyers posted out West show he's got ability.

Cap the Moment

Tough to build much of a case; last win came on AQU's inner almost 16 months ago and his form since hasn't been too hot; that includes a number of outings at this level; was no factor when 5th (of 6) at 39-1 in a sprint at this level here July 3; could be that at this stage of the game (he's a 7yo) this level is just biting off too much

Indy's Illusion

Good enough in 2012 to get a shot at the G2 Remsen and still regarded well enough in March 2013 to get a shot at the G1 Florida Derby; those waters proved too deep and most disconcerting is since the Florida Derby he's really run just 1 good race in his next 8 starts; all those outings came at about this level, too; lack of speed has been a drawback as he's been leaving himself with a lot to do; at least his only win came here but even if he reprises his best recent performance (2nd at GP April 5) that may only ensure a minor piece of the pie...and as noted that run was been the exception and not the rule for him the past year or so.

Race 9

Live Longshot

BARTIROMO (#2, 15-1) was an impressive winner in his latest and though he's up in class off the claim he fits well off the figure he earned there; should offer value due to the class rise. -Kenny Peck

Live Longshot

ALMURRA (#10, 12-1) unseen since debut win last year up at the Spa sprinting on the turf, a race which produced four next out winners and a second of the six to return; layoffs like these a McLaughlin strength. - Chuck Kuehhas

Vulnerable Favorite

GRANNY MC’S KITTEN (#5, 5-2) hasn’t really improved throughout her six race career, so will leave out of top spot in multi-race wagers, though will likely use underneath in verticals. - Chuck Kuehhas

Equilateral

Main Track Only ran two solid races running over wet tracks to begin her career and would have to be considered a serious threat to win this if she gets to run; horse she beat in her debut came back to win a maiden special weight race at Belmont with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure.

Bartiromo

Second foal out of $335K stakes winner She's That Cat hasn't lost on turf and looked pretty good beating up on a weak group of $40 n/w/2 here June 11; this is clearly a tougher spot but the Beyer Speed Figure came up strong and she should get a cozy trip from her inside post; she was haltered by Barbara who the past five years has a 5 percent strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time; some things to like.

Pink Poppy

First from Brown was good enough to win her second start in a key race despite getting off to a poor beginning and she is a half-sister to Grade 1 placed Liquidity so there could be plenty of upside potential; horse that finished second won a MSW race on the turf at Monmouth with a 78 Beyer Speed Figure May 25; this gal was a vet scratch June 11 but has worked well since and is in very good hands; contender.

Passing Pfast

Maybe it wasn't her day because she couldn't have had a better trip when she finished third as the heavy chalk in a $15K optional race at Delaware in her latest; horse that won her previous race at Keeneland came back to win the $200K Wonder Again here and finished second in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks last Sat.; contention runs deep.

Granny Mc's Kitten

Second from Brown was in tight early and dropped pretty far back in her latest in a key race at Churchill May 2; the horse that finished second came back to beat the boys in the Grade 3 Arlington Classic; expecting Castellano to have her forwardly placed in a race they probably won't be going that fast early; full-sister to Grade 1 winner Kitten's Dumplings looks like a major player.

Irish Score

Second from Motion ran a huge race the only time she ran over firm turf and there was nothing wrong with her latest here over a good course; the horse that beat her came back to finish third in the Belmont Oaks; she had a wide trip two back at Monmouth but with her tactical speed she should get a nice trip from this post; playable.

Whispering

She faded after making a middle move in a similar race here May 18 but it was a good field with three coming back to win their next races - particularly Walk Close who won a $100K stakes here June 21; this gal has had a hard time keeping up with winners in her two starts since she broke her maiden at Gulfstream in Jan. so we're going to look elsewhere.

Miss Frost

She ran an improved race in her latest and could be sitting on a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle; she did have a perfect trip, though, and she couldn't get past Irish Score; not sure she'll get the same kind of trip here, and she will need to improve on her career-best Beyer Speed Figure to be a serious factor; prefer others.

Valseuse

Deep closer looked like she was going to win the key race won by Walk Close in her latest but she hung late; she's been freshened for this and the past five years Clement has a 22 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 31-60 days; not sure the shape of the race will work in her favor but she is another possibility in a race that is tough to separate them.

Almurra

Nice win in her debut and the race produced three next-out winners including subsequent stakes winner A Little Bit Sassy who was recently dq'd from first in the Grade 3 Regret at Churchill Downs; nice set of works showing for her return and the past five years McLaughlin has a 24 percent strike rate with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or longer that were going long on turf; plenty to overcome here but not sure there are any real stars in the field and being out of Grade 1 turf winner Alwajeeha, she could be; the pick.