Belmont: Daily Game Plan for Saturday, July 5

Race 1

Silverama

Although it was against 40k maiden claimers in a race that saw her benefit from a favorable early pace scenario, her career debut for the Clement barn was solid; she's out of a dam who was a multiple stakes winner racing overseas, and she has a chance to be a clever claim for her current connections.

Lady Lavery

Half-sister to multiple stakes placed Brushed Gold (3-11, 111k over turf) was a little disappointing in her latest outing while racing with Lasix for the first time, and perhaps there's something to be said for Saez hopping aboard another in here.

Striking Style

She has a nice turf pedigree and she showed a little something in her first three career starts racing over turf as a 2-year-old; like the idea of her getting over turf for the first time as a 3-year-old, and this miss is a 1/2 to G3 stakes placed Aquitaine (4-15, 109k over turf).

Guilty Verdict

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and multiple G1 winning dam won 5 of 9 starts for 654k, and she didn't make a turf start; she attracted wagering support in her first two starts as a 2-year-old, and now she gets Lasix for her 3-year-old racing debut; Castellano has won with 3 of 11 (27%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Snowbell

This will be a favorable spot for this filly to land in if this race has to be moved to the main track, and if she runs the way that she did in her first two career starts, she'll make a serious bid for the top prize.

Di Lissa

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 22 starts for 28k, and she didn't make a turf start; interesting to see new connections go right to turf with this miss, and over the past year, this barn has won with 8 of 26 (31%) starters first after a claim.

Giant's Jewel

Her best effort is fast enough to get her into the mix against these and she's eligible to be ready to give a good account of herself while making her second start back from a layoff, but have to consider how long she's been hanging around the maiden ranks before backing her for the top spot.

Pedal Princess

She has appeal in this spot with Rosario taking the call, and even though she came up short as a favorite in her career debut at Atlantic City, she had excuses and her pedigree suggests that she'll appreciate having more ground to work with. - Brian Pochman

Race 2

Confrontation

Sharp to capture the place in the last effort, a very quick race for the class involved; he has breezed in professional manner since and if he can handle breaking from the fence, he should be able to stay within range regardless of soil condition.

Night Maneuver

A beaten favorite at Delaware, this gelding has a solid local record and high-percentage connections at the helm; out of the money only once during the last 2 racing seasons, he is an obvious true contender but does not warrant a similar short price as last time.

Be Bullish

True warhorse is approaching the million dollar mark in earnings and turned in an excellent placing at the shore a month ago; will receive a rapid pace set-up if all runners go and is hard to leave out of your exotic wagering plans even though he spots weight to the entire field.

Protocol

Did not have a smooth trip in his last run but lands into one of the deepest optional claimers of the meet here and faces a stern task; will have to run a personal best Beyer in order to contend and the latest training track breezes do not suggest that is in the wings.

Eastwood

Met some outstanding sprinters in the G2 Truth North and the return to this class should offer him a much better chance; unlucky colt encountered trouble in the previous pair of showings and can work an ideal midpack trip against this group.

Revocation

Makes his belated 2014 debut and, as mentioned above, has the misfortune of running into one of the top echelon optional claimers of the meet; crushed the field in his first allowance test at this oval but was never seriously challenged that day; faces much unwanted early escort this afternoon.

Quick Indian

Began his career in the sprint game and then matured when negotiating a route of ground; the only sophomore in this field picks a very difficult spot to face older runners for the first time and will be up against it no matter how the early pace unravels; pass for now.

Green Gratto

This colt has come a long way since breaking maiden in late January; he has been rested since setting a red-hot pace in an overnight stakes in mid-May; subsequent work tab is strong but there is a host of challengers for early command today; conflicting signals.

Kingsford Drive

The key aspect to his profile is that he has rated to victory more than once in the past; sports a near perfect local exacta record and this outside slot can actually work to his advantage if able to wait and then middle move at the right moment; could prove the right value play in an excellent betting affair. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Emkanaat (GB)

Today is his 1st start on grass since August; 65 days since the USA debut on dirt was a last-place finish; has been best on synthetic surfaces during career bringing a 1-for-14 green mark into this; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Partly Mocha

Was screaming out for more yardage in last and gets it here; not sure this today's his best distance; wish he showed more late punch in his prior-7F starts where he flattened out; the 3-back winner repeated in a KEE-allowance with a 89 Beyer; he beat the show runner that day who Beyered 72 in a next-out KEE alw. win.

Jonrah

9%-winning 1st off the claim trainer purchased him off a closing win at 1.5F longer; cuts back to his shortest-distance test since January, 2013, which seemingly doesn't fit his late-closing style; was troubled vs. the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 99 in a next-out BEL-125K stakes win.

American Progress

Projects as the one to catch; hit the gate in latest which compromised any win hopes off the nearly 5-month layoff; is eligible to take these a long way up top; sire is 49-for-529 (9% winners) with 1st-turf starters; dam went 0-for-1 on the grass producing 1 turf winner from 3 to race on the lawn (1-for-11 Dynamic Barbie 21K green).

Grand Arrival

Main Track Only entry is 1 of 3 Rice-trained uncoupled runners; would love a sloppy track which is where his career-best Beyer was posted; repsonded when dropped into a claimer for the 1st time in career now must pass the class test to repeat.

Iron Power

Good New York-bred form but has a lot to prove vs. open company; 26%-winning fresh trainer adds to the appeal; way off best form pre-rest when defeated by the show finisher who Beyered 69 in a next-out CBY-optional-claiming win; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 87 in a next-out BEL alw. win.

Lead Singer

Claimed off a romp and new Beyer-career best when finally racing back on turf; this is a massive class leap but always a good sign when a rider keeps the faith despite a trainer change; races midpack then hopes to at least repeat his prior Beyer Top which would make him an exotics player here.

Make Your Move

32%-winning fresh trainer mostly at PRX claimed this one off a rallying-dirt sprint and goes to turf where his only lawn start was January, 2013, an 11th-place finish in a GP 1M and 1-16th MSW loss; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-OPC with a 102 Beyer.

Isn'tlovejustgrand

The 7-week absence for a 10%-winning fresh trainer does not help the confidence level but exits a strong effort; won a key race defeating the show and 5th-place finishers; they Beyered 98-87 in next-out BEL-OPC and 25K-claiming wins; the 2-back winner repeated in a 20K claimer with a 74 Beyer.

The Big Beast

Main Track Only entry stretches out to his longest distance ever; would be a major pace presence based on latest where he finally received a clean gate break then won as favored; defeated the debut show finisher who Beyered 82 in a next-out CD-MSW win.

Adirondack Dancer

Solid race for his 1st start of the year for a high-percentage 2nd off-the-bench trainer; widest drawn so sure to lose ground; cuts back to his shortest-distance test since February, 2012; has 4 wins on grass however the shortest was 1 Mile; field-best Beyer was posted on today's WIdener turf course in 2013 at 1F longer than today's event; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 86 in a next-out BEL-alw. win. - Art Gropper

Race 4

Dwyer Stakes by Mary Rampelini

CAPTAIN SERIOUS has a chance to shake loose in the Grade 3, $200,000 Dwyer at Belmont Park on Saturday. From there, the question will be how far can he go? The Dwyer’s mile and a sixteenth trip will test the pedigree parameters of the undefeated CAPTAIN SERIOUS, and if he falters, waiting in the wings will be Grade 2 winner SPOT, three-time stakes winner KID CRUZ, and the up and coming TIZ DARK.

CAPTAIN SERIOUS has won all three of his starts, his latest the $125,000 Mike Lee at Belmont on May 31. He put up some quick fractions before winning the seven-furlong race in a blazing 1:20.80, good for a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 97. CAPTAIN SERIOUS will leave the New York-bred ranks behind for the first time in the Dwyer, and based on his last start and the running styles of others in the field, he could show the way. He also has been effective from off the pace, and could stalk were SPOT or TIZ DARK to get the jump on him at the start. The concern with CAPTAIN SERIOUS figures to arise in the drive, as his sire, SUCCESSFUL APPEAL, was a noted sprinter who maxed out at a mile, having run third in the Dwyer. CAPTAIN SERIOUS is out of the Mr. Greeley mare Madame Diva, a maiden winner whose score came at seven furlongs.

SPOT worked a bullet half-mile in 48 seconds at Saratoga in his final prep for the Dwyer. He not only has the natural speed to be in contention from the start, but he also exits a quick race, the Grade 2 Woody Stephens won by Bayern in 1:20.60. SPOT might track CAPTAIN SERIOUS, but like that one must answer the distance question as he will be seeking to win beyond seven furlongs for the first time in his career. SPOT’s sire, Pulpit, was a winner at a mile and an eighth in the Blue Grass.

TIZ DARK is a May foal by Tiznow who relished the added ground he picked up when he won a maiden special weight at a mile and a sixteenth at Belmont in his second career start May 25. He meets winners for the first time in the Dwyer, but shares the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure distinction with leading contenders CAPTAIN SERIOUS and KID CRUZ. TIZ DARK, who gets stamina from his sire, a two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, could get an ideal tracking trip behind CAPTAIN SERIOUS, a runner nicely situated to his immediate inside.

KID CRUZ is a closer best served with pace, and he took advantage of a hot one last out when winning the $150,000 Easy Goer at this mile and a sixteenth trip at Belmont on June 7. KID CRUZ is one of the field’s most accomplished runners as a multiple stakes winner and were SPOT and TIZ DARK to push CAPTAIN SERIOUS, perhaps he will get the kind of tempo he needs to fuel his late run. On a pedigree point, he is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Spellbound.

ULANBATOR has class appeal for his runner-up finish to Tapiture in the Grade 3 Matt Winn at a mile and a sixteenth last out at Churchill Downs. He has the look of an improving runner and one capable of getting the mile and a sixteenth trip. Dangerous.

GAINING GROUND is a fresh face as this will be his first start since April. He shows some sharp works for his return, and could get a decent stalking trip behind a few of these.

TIZ DARK gets the nod over CAPTAIN SERIOUS, a rival he might push past in the later stages. KID CRUZ could get up for third behind those two, while SPOT, who is shaking Bayern after two straight races against that quality foe, could be sitting on a strong race.

Kid Cruz

Only two off efforts so far; the green debut and the day he hooked California Chrome; there should be enough pace for him to attempt to collar especially if the Hushion and the Pletcher runner hook up; he obviously has taken to the surface and note he broke his maiden from the Big A rail; not sure he was beating anybody in last as the place horse was coming off a MSW victory; look for him to be eating up ground in the final furlong; major player.

Spot

Soph beat 5 foes in the one win this year; he was only a brief threat in the Florida Derby and just never got rolling in last; the best of 23 bullet last Saturday upstate is solid and he has a right to get the trip as kin Quiet All American took 5 routes in his career; will be rolling late if at all.

Ulanbator

Toss the sprints and the form brightens; note show horse was over 5 clear in last; he got a feel of the Graded stakes game and the 5/3 winner took a $75K stakes next out, then won the Grade 3 Iowa Derby with an 86 Beyer; the winner of this race last year Moreno was coming off a MSW victory with a 89 Beyer, just like this runner posted last time; he has plenty of upside to him.

Captain Serious

Unbeaten showed a new wrinkle last time going all the way; wraps added for last pair and he was geared down last time in the last 70 yards; fit enough to drill several times since the last effort; would expect Ortiz to send hard and try to steal it.

Tiz Dark

Nearly 6 clear in a pretty solid debut and note place hrose was clear for run last time; could see him sitting a nice two-hole trip, maybe just off the Captain tracking that one every step of the way; like the way he was coming away last time; should give a very good account of himself.

Gaining Ground

Nothing like a confidence builder to right the path; once he dropped in for a tag and cashed, the light kind of went on; that's the good news; the bad news is he was hung wide in his stakes debut and could not adapt; trainer has spotted them solidly this year with limited starters but this runner has some things to prove. - Brian Mulligan

Race 5

Wild Prado

Little knows outfit unveils a newcomer by a sire who is 1 for 60 with his runners right out of the box and 1 for 27 with his initial turf starters; unraced dam's 2 foals to race are sprint winners, one of whom was 0 for 1 on the green; works don't offer many clues as to his ability.

Mr. Freud

Tries turf for the first time while also making his initial appearance with statebreds; 4 year old showed marked improvement second out on synthetic footing at Presque Isle Downs and maybe it was just the new blinkers that helped pick him up, but he is kin to a surface winner and his sire gets 13% winners from his first time turfers, so maybe the improvement continues today.

Tom's Vision

Made a nice late run at a big price in his initial turf start and was able to grab third money at the trip and level; he's had time to get over the effort so maybe he's set to move forward some; with pace signed on wouldn't be a surprise to again see him coming late to get in the mix for a share.

Spark to Ignite

Took a little tote support in each of his first 2 main track starts and offered improved early lick before fading last time; gelding gets a new pilot while getting second time Lasix for his turf debut for a barn that boasts a recent winner with this type; sire is 1 for 14 with his initial surface starters and he's the first foal to race out of a dam who never made it to the track.

Junger

Wasn't beaten much at the level while making his second start of the year last time but the runner up from that heat will return in this spot as well; colt brings an early presence to the table but he hasn't had enough in the lane to significantly threaten and the has us limiting his use to underneath in exotics.

Dulha

Showed little after encountering early trouble when unveiled in the off the turfer here last month; colt will get Lasix as they again attempt to get him on the lawn and he did blow out well for this the other day; sire is 2 for 8 with his first turfers but the dam's foals are a combined 0 for 26 on the green.

Lyrical Miracle

Broke well and was soon positioned to make an off the pace run that never materialized in his turf debut here a couple of weeks ago; there's not much surface pedigree here so don't know that we'd give him another shot to prove himself over the footing today; have to pass on him.

Latigo Trail

Just failed to last after opening a clear midstretch lead in his first turf try and now he'll move outside; like the lick he showed up with in that one and he'll switch to a top pilot for his second spin over this footing; while there is other speed in here, a repeat of that last one could make him tough to run down.

Blue Chips Only

Gets off the fence for his turf debut after proving little match for the top 2 in his off the turf return from nearly 10 months on the shelf; gelding gets a top pilot for his second start back and his SP dam's 3 wins did all come on the green; sire gets just 5% winners from his initial surface starters, however.

Dowse's Beach

Earned a field best number when just missing at a longer trip in his local return from nearly 7 months on the shelf; expect he'll be better with the try behind him for a barn whose runners excel second time back and the shorter trip should help enhance his late kick; looks like they'll have him to beat today.

A Marked Man

Wasn't beaten much when in against stakes runners at a slightly longer trip while making his return to the green last month; he's back in with non-winners today and the slight cut back does figure to benefit him as well; scary threat looks to get the jump on the guy drawn to his inside here from early tracking range; main danger.

Ziggy Moondust

Barn's second runner in here makes his debut for a sire who hits with 11% of his debut runners and 13% of his initial turf starters; dam was winless from 3 starts prior to dropping a 2 time sprint winner who banked 108K while never trying the green; barn does nice work with turfers, but hasn't had a lot of recent luck right out of the box.

Bob and Jim

AE didn't show much while finishing behind today's foes in each of his last 2 starts on the local sod; he's had 19 chances and though he owns a back running line over this footing that would make him a threat, hasn't run a recent number that fits in this spot; have to side with others for the top spot if he draws in. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Belmont Sprint Championship by Randy Goulding

With 13 horses entered there should be some value offered and it will be hard to stay away from AIGUE MARINE if she goes off anywhere near her morning-line odds of 6-1. She has been away for just over two months but she can fire fresh and the past five years Clement has a 19 percent strike rate with horses coming back from a layoff between 61-180 days. Just 9 percent in graded races in the same category is a bit of a concern. Nonetheless, she hasn’t finished worse than third in five starts at the distance, and while she hasn’t won a graded race yet, she just missed going 1 1/2 miles in the Grade 3 Bewitch at Keeneland in her latest. She has the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance, which she has posted twice, and a similar figure would likely get it done here. She won’t mind what could be a soft course, and with her tactical speed she should get a nice trip sitting off speed that isn’t likely going to last.

CONCISE looks like the best of the three horses entered by trainer Graham Motion. This seems like a big step up in class after winning a first-level allowance race at Keeneland, but she didn’t get beat by much when she finished third in the Grade 1 Garden City last year. She could also be ready for a peak performance in the third start of her current form cycle. She’s worth a look at what should be a decent price and

TOPIC has been installed as the 7-2 morning-line favorite, but she hasn’t won in four starts as a 4-year-old, and her best races were on much firmer courses in Southern California. She is coming off a couple of solid efforts at Churchill Downs, though, and she ran huge races both times she went this distance. Not our favorite to win this but she should be included in the exotics.

MODERNSTONE seems like an underlay at 9-2 but she could be coming up to a peak performance in her third start in North America. She was no match for Grade 1 winner Riposte in the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay, and she didn’t have the best trip when she finished fourth as the favorite behind Grade 2 winner Caroline Thomas in an $80K optional race in her latest at Belmont.

STARSTRUCK looks capable if you toss her latest. She is another one that seems to favor firm footing, though.

Live Longshot

DADS CAPS (#5, 10-1): Posted a big upset in the Carter Handicap against some of today’s rivals when able to control the pace two starts ago; rebound threat could get a similar situation after being compromised by a slow start in the True North. --Dave Litfin

Declan's Warrior

Clearly Now beat him in the Met Mile which was a very strong group; happy that Palace Malice is not here after unable to do anything vs. him in last 2; it's been over 1 year since his BEL stakes victory vs. 3-year-olds; the only time Johnny V rode before today was an eased-running line loss to Central Banker; have him ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Central Banker

9 weeks since his best-last-race Beyer speed figure Grade 2 win at today's distance on CD dirt defeating Clearly Now at equal weights; he will be giving that one 6 pounds today for the rematch; the main issue is the layoff as his 2 career-best Beyers were both accomplished 2nd time off the bench; the 3-back winner repeated in an SA-G2 stakes with a 101 Beyer.

Clearly Now

Even finish in latest when facing a very sharp Met Mile field beating Declan's Warrior; G3-SW over the track last fall at 7F is capable on best; has every chance to avenge the 2-back loss to Central Banker losing by under 2 lengths with a positive 6-pound weight swing for this; obviously wish he fired better in last but seems set for a big effort here; the pick.

Moonlight Song

Keeps the win rider who had other options in this event; have to go back to October, 2012, to see a bad race on his form; benefits being a major pace presence in a field lacking a lot of natural-gate speed especially if Dads Caps doesn't fire from the gate again; if he makes the front loose on the lead it would increase his win hopes a lot; avenged the October loss to Palace in last also defeating the show finisher who Beyered 96 in a next-out 50K-claiming win; the one to catch and beat.

Dads Caps

Loved him when he upset 2 back when projected loose on the lead then scored up top; in latest he did not show any interest from the gate then faded to produce a career-low Beyer; neither of his BEL dirt races are very enticing with something to prove over the track; his 3-time win rider lands on Palace for this.

Mezzano

Recent-stakes placed PRX race was his best Beyer number since April, 2013; today would be his 1st start at BEL and vs. proven graded-stakes runners; his only prior G3 event was a 7th-place finish; best speed figure was posted on a synthetic surface; will be backing others.

Salutos Amigos

Was gaining ground too late in last while getting a negative 2-pound weight swing today for the Palace rematch; is doing the rain dance (2-for-2 on wet tracks including a BEL-career best Beyer 2-back); most-recent win rider sides with Dads Caps for this; others appeal more on fast footing.

Big Screen

Winless on BEL dirt with more than 10 lengths to make up on Clearly Now from that October loss; probably wants more yaradge than 7F; March, 2013, produced the field's best Beyer speed figure at 1F longer on AQU Inner Dirt; defeated the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 98 in a next-out GP-125K stakes win.

Palace

Just 1 loss on BEL dirt and that was on a wet track; don't worry about the wide draw he can from anywhere showing a 10-post victory in 2012; latest-win rider goes to Moonlight Song who defeated him 3 back on a wet track; hopes to avenge that loss on fast footing today; looms a logical contender for win honors. - Art Gropper

Race 7

Belmont Derby by Marty McGee

Clearly the weather might have a big say in how this terrific Grade 1 plays out, with the remnants of Hurricane Arthur threatening to put a damper on the Saturday card. Hopefully this race will stay on turf, and on a not-too-boggy course at that.

With that caveat, it seems the Euro invader Toast of New York (#1, 3-1 M/L) has plenty of work to do if he is to factor in. In fact, we’re dubious he can overcome course-condition and all the new things being thrown at him at once and are skeptical he’s of the quality of some of these other, even under ideal conditions. At relatively low odds, he’s a definite play-against, especially with so many alluring alternatives.

One of those is Bobby’s Kitten (#3, 6-1 M/L), whose dominating Penn National victory signaled that Chad Brown did the right thing in regrouping the colt after the Blue Grass. With leading-jock Castellano back aboard, look for this Ramsey homebred to accept careful rating while stalking from a good spot before powering home once again. Doubtful the 6-1 will be available, but in any event, by using him with a number of others in the exotics and fading Toast of New York, there are some nice cashing possibilities here.

Among those others: Adelaide (#4, 7-2 M/L), admittedly a Coolmore 4th-stringer who gets first Lasix after doing pretty much all he’s been asked to do; Flamboyant (#5, 15-1), a California shipper who should be a price, even with the ever-popular Rosario up; Dance With Fate (#6, 10-1), pointed to this even before he cooled out following the Ky. Derby; Pornichet (#8, 10-1), who adds Lasix and blinks as perhaps the best of the Euro shippers; and Mr Speaker (#9, 15-1), who was much too keen in his latest and will have turf-pro Lezcano gearing him down thru the early stages today.

The play: Key #3 up/back/under/sideways in the verticals with the other contenders, those being 4/5/6/8/9. And good luck with what’s obviously a sensational new tradition for the Fourth of July weekend.

Spot Play

ADELAIDE (#4, 7-2) top international connections ship this Irish bred off runnerup effort at distance that may have been out of his scope at this time; cuts back to best distance, adds Lasix and should be a handful. - Chuck Kuehhas

Vulnerable Favorite

TOAST OF NEW YORK (#1, 3-1) you can look at this British based shipper one of two ways; a horse that’s been improving with every start in five race career, or a synthetic loving colt who is in deep in a turf Grade 1, the surface of his worst career race; as the favorite, I’ll choose the latter. - Chuck Kuehhas

Toast of New York

He obviously loves racing over synthetic surfaces and have to respect how easy he made it look in beating 11 rivals in the G2 UAE Derby, but he has to prove that he can do it racing over turf, and his sire is 0-for-35 with North American turf starters; like to see him getting Lasix for his first start in America, and have to list him among the contenders, but prefer to lean toward those with proven turf form.

Sheldon

Certainly respect the fact that this is an outfit that knows how to get the most out of their turf starters, but this is about as tough of a spot as there is for this colt to be making his first start after breaking his maiden; he has the look of an outsider.

Bobby's Kitten

Grade 3 winner dominated a quality field in the 500k Penn Mile and he shows up for one of the strongest turf outfits in America, and they've been having a very strong meeting; if the early pace is slow to develop, he'll be quite happy to grab the early advantage and make them have to reel him in; Castellano has won with 10 of 28 (36%) mounts for this outfit at the current stand.

Adelaide (IRE)

He's two races removed from a G3 score in Ireland at today's distance, and the next time he runs a bad race will be the first time; like to see him getting Lasix for his first start in America, and over the past four years, O'Donoghue has won with 4 of 10 North American starters for O'Brien; winners include, Joshua Tree, Treasure Beach, Together and Daddy Long Legs.

Flamboyant (FR)

He earned a stakes win in his first start in America over a sharp turfer in Home Run Kitten, and he was equally sharp when finishing right behind today's rival Gala Award in his first start over this turf course in his latest outing; he adds to the depth of quality in this event.

Dance With Fate

He's the only G1 winner in this field, and even though that one win was earned over a synthetic surface, at the time he won his turf debut it was arguably the sharpest performance of his career; if his recent workouts are any indication, he's set for his return to action.

Gailo Chop (FR)

Multiple group stakes winner has been on a roll racing in France, and he's proven that he can be at his best at today's 1 1/4m distance; As of this writing, he's the only one in here that won't run with Lasix, but he's clearly a strong contender and have to respect the fact that his regular rider has shipped with him.

Pornichet (FR)

He was last seen earning a Group 1 stakes placing going a mile in France and he figures to be forwardly placed while adding blinkers and making his first start beyond 1 1/16m; distance is a question, but he clearly has a good deal of ability, and he benefits from the services of a hot local rider.

Mr Speaker

He just didn't seem to fire last time, but when considering how well he ran in three of four graded stakes attempts prior to that, it seems like a good idea to look for him to bounce back with a much sharper performance this time around; over the past three years, this barn has won with 30 of 104 (29%) starters in graded stakes races on turf.

Global View

He wasn't able top get to today's rival Bobby's Kitten in the 500k Penn Mile in his latest outing, and even though he's a question at today's 1 1/4m distance, it's really tough to knock anything he's done from five turf starts; can't ignore this multiple graded stakes winner with Stevens at the controls.

Gala Award

Half-brother to G1 winner Stormello (3-11, 700k, no turf starts) has been very sharp in all four of his turf starts, and he's even beaten a couple of today's rivals in those races; he was a sharp winner in his first start over this turf course in his latest outing, and Velazquez has won with 10 of 39 (26%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

Suburban Handicap by Michael Hammersly

The hinge for our decisions here is the Met Mile. That race, was so impressively by Palace Malice, had the strongest field of the year. Obviously this race is no walk in the park but those coming out of the Met Mile surely won’t be facing quite the same level of competition here. And considering ROMANSH ran so well to be third in that brutal race he looks well spotted here at a trip he should relish.

The son of champion 3yo Bernardini was well regarded from day one; he cost $750,000 at auction. It wasn’t the smoothest start to his career last year as he found the Grade 1 Travers and Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby waters a tad too deep. However, when he returned to New York, for Aqueduct’s Grade 3 Discovery Handicap it was as if the light went on. That day, at 1 1/8 miles, he stalked the pace, took over turning for home and blasted clear, winning in a romp by 9 1/4 lengths. Oh, and his two most immediate victims? Today’s foes NORUMBEGA and MICROMANAGE.

That stamped him one to watch come 2014 so there excitement when he returned in the Grade 1 Donn at GP Feb. 9. Well, the excitement didn’t last long. He got bumped at the start, made a threatening move doing to the far turn but then just as suddenly hit the brakes, ending up last of 11 beaten some 35 lengths by Lea. Trainer Tom Albertrani, who handled this guy’s dad so well, brought him back to New York for the Grade 3 Excelsior on AQU’s inner. It worked. It wasn’t easy, but he got back on track as he pressed the pace and proved a game winner by a neck over another tough customer, Long River.

That sent him to the June 7 Met Mile with some renewed enthusiasm. He stalked the brisk pace and doggedly kept to his task to finish third, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths by Palace Malice, generally regarded as the best horse in the country right now, and was only a half-length behind top-class Goldencents, winner of last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

That run means the Donn is long in the rearview mirror, that whatever the reason for his poor outing that day it doesn’t concern any longer. ROMANSH has ample tactical speed. After all, he was stalking the brisk pace of the Met Mile. He’s by no means speed-crazy, meaning his natural gallop can have him forwardly placed but that he can do it on his own, that he won’t need to hit the gas until his rider sees fit. STORMIN MONARCHO and MORENO are likely quicker but that should suit ROMANSH just fine as he can fall into a dream stalking trip.

Oh, and with the handicap conditions it’s a bonus he actually GETS weight from some of his rivals.

He looks awfully attractive in the 3-1/7-2 range.

Speaking of Moreno, he, too, comes out of the Met Mile. He found those splits too much to chase, however, as he tried to keep up but then backed out of it, ending up last of 12. Last year he was on the pace all the way in the Grade 1 Travers at SAR at this same distance before losing by a nostril to eventual 3yo champion Will Take Charge. His speed figures more effective at this longer trip, where his natural gallop can have him right up on the pace.

The Met Mile try also came sans blinkers after he’d run so well with blinkers. Well, trainer Eric Guillot puts the shades back on and two recent bullet works say there are no ill effects from that Met Mile dud. He figures on the lead or pressing the lead, with ROMANSH not too far away. If he can save some fuel he may well prove an elusive target for ROMANSH in the 6-1/8-1 range.

VYJACK is the other leaving the Met Mile. His comeback sprint win at AQU April 27 was very smart. That earned him a shot at the Met Mile and after biding his time early he came with a nice run hugging the rail on the far turn. However, he couldn’t sustain it, at least not against that level of competition, and finished ninth.

He moves to a longer trip with blinkers added and a big bullet work June 27 to say he’s doing well. And that last running line may mean he’ll get ignored at the windows so he can certainly be part of your exotics picture at 15-1/20-1.

Micromanage

Beaten chalk just missed in the 12 panel G2 Brooklyn on Belmont Day behind one of the guys he'll catch again in here; don't know that the pace in front of him will be to his liking and he figures to be less in touch early from the inside draw while cutting back in distance today; he's certainly been better today and his best puts him in the thick of this, but his regular pilot opts to side elsewhere in here.

Ever Rider (ARG)

Proved little threat for some of these going longer last time but his effort 2 back at the trip wasn't bad; he's now run twice over the local main track and his morning move here last week suggests he may be ready for a move forward at what figures to be a big price; using him underneath in exotics.

Zivo

Statebred has run off 5 straight scores and now he'll tackle graded stakes runners at his longest trip to date; later runner rarely fails to fire and he'll likely find himself a little closer to the top early in this heat; he likes it here and he'll get in lighter than he's used to while a top pilot gets aboard, but he'll have to prove he can step with a bunch containing several who have run faster of late.

Norumbega

Upset some of these while returning from the freshening in the Brooklyn last month, earning a career best Beyer in the process; gray cuts back today which could enhance his kick and maybe that last one was the confidence builder he needed to keep going, but prefer to side against the repeat at this shorter trip.

Last Gunfighter

Seeks his third straight score while returning to the scene of his maiden score while making just his second start of the year; 5 year old retains the services of the circuit's top pilot and this sharp outfit does an excellent job keeping them going second off the break; he's capable of sitting close to the pacesetters early which should only help him in this spot and he is a G2 SW at this 10 panel trip; contender.

Romansh

Gelding looked pretty good getting beaten just over a length to one of the top older runners in training in the G1 Met Mile here on the Belmont Stakes undercard; 4 year old gave hints at his ability as a sophomore but he boasts some fast graded stakes route scores and expect he'll be better on the stretchout with that last one behind him; thinking they'll have to hold him off to win.

Prayer for Relief

Thought he should have won 2 back at Pimlico and he ran into a front running winner last out at Churchill; he's yet to win this year and that's a concern as he was twice sent off as the chalk, but a bounce back type of effort could put him right in the thick of this one at an inviting price.

Stormin Monarcho

Fought off a pace challenge through solid splits before kicking away from an overmatched bunch at odds on at Delaware Park last time and now he'll get a big class test in his local debut; gelding does look to have a tactical advantage in a field lacking some early pace presence and he will shed some weight for this one; recent numbers fit, but he'll have to prove he can handle the hike in company and no wilt in the lane; expect he'll prove to be the one to catch.

Vyjack

Adds shades for the stretchout in his third start of the year after proving little threat to G1 types in the Met Mile; he's yet to run fast enough to win this heat, but he is a G1 SP router and he returned from his last to work pretty sharply last week; still, he's got his work cut out for him against this bunch.

Mylute

Wasn't much of a threat in either of his 2 stakes tries this year after a solid win over cheaper in his season's debut at Fair Grounds; late runner may like the stretchout but don't think he's going to get a hot clip in front of him and that could leave him with a lot to do in the lane; looking at others on the win end.

Moreno

Front end type was outquicked in the Met Mile and had nothing to offer thereafter in his local return; shades will go back on this gelding and he worked the other day as if he's on his toes for this one; outside draw isn't ideal at this configuration, but there isn't a lot of lick in here and given a clean start he should be much more involved early; locally G2 SW colt can't be overlooked. - Steve Grabowksi

Race 9

Belmont Oaks by Marcus Hersh

There’s little doubt concerning the identity of the “best” horse in the $1 million Belmont Oaks: She is XCELLENCE, and if her French form translates to American turf, she will win this race.

Why is “best” in quotations? Because being the best horse – the most talented and accomplished – is not the same as being the best horse for a particular circumstance. And there seems to be a touch of concern about Xcellence’s ability to stay one and one-quarter miles.

I go back to what a trainer told me a long time ago when I was new to this job: Any horse can win at any distance given the right competition.

And that is why being the “best” horse in the Belmont Oaks could take Xcellence a long way. My feeling is the French 3-year-old fillies are pretty good this year. One of them, Avenir Certain, might be really, really good. She’s won all five of her races, including the French 1000 Guineas and the French Oaks. Xcellence finished third in both those races. In the French Oaks, run over one and five-sixteenths miles, she took a good run at Avenir Certain and just came up slightly wanting in the final 100 yards.

If Xcellence runs that race again, there’s no one in this field who can beat her. Moreover, I’m not entirely sure where the distance concerns (even her trainer, Francois Doumen, has suggested Xcellence is more a miler) are coming from. Her sire was a 12-furlong horse, her dam won over 10 furlongs, and her best closest relative, an uncle, was a two-mile stayer overseas.

It seems like there are a decent number of 3-year-old male turf horses floating around North America this year, but I’m less convinced the same holds for 3-year-old fillies. I’m approaching this race with that as a guiding light, tossing the North American horses and focusing solely on the overseas shippers. GOLDY ESPONY was dreadful in a ho-hum edition of the G1 Prix Saint-Alary last out, but that “L” in a bold oval near her name – first Lasix – could provide a remedy. She has raced roughly one and one-quarter miles seven times now, and we know she stays the distance.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained WONDERFULLY also is first Lasix, and her two poor showings this year suggest a horse that might be a bleeder. Her best form, probably her fourth in the G1 Fillies Mile last year, is appealing in this race, and though Wonderfully has yet to race beyond one mile, she has the pedigree to stay this 10-furlong trip.

The other Euro, FLYING JIB, is not at all appealing from a pedigree perspective. She’s by a sprinter and out of a mare who probably was best at seven furlongs, and I’d not expect her to improve in her first try beyond one mile.

Goldy Espony (FR)

She's a Group 3 winner racing overseas and she's making her first start in America for a top turf barn that has won with 11 of 33 (33%) foreign shippers the past five years, including 3-for-7 (43%) with Lezcano aboard; she has to be respected while making her first start with Lasix.

Room Service

She's yet to show us that she knows how to run a bad race and she's a G1 winner racing over turf and synthetic; she absolutely dominated in one of the premier turf races for 3-year-old fillies in her latest start and has to be respected as a top contender with that performance in tow.

My Conquestadory

She made her career dbeut a winning one in a G2 event over turf at woodbine and she was all the rage after winning the G1 Alcibiades over the synthetic surface at Keeneland; it looks like she's been training well in preparation for her second start as a 3-year-old, and her connections see fit to call upon Castellano for this.

Summer Solo

New York-bred miss deserves a lot of credit for the way that she's been able to get the job done in all three career starts, but she taking a serious class test today, and obviously she's going to have to be ready to take her game to another level to prove to be a player against this tough bunch.

Flying Jib (GB)

Not always wil about these horses that stretch out in distance drastically for their first start in America, but it's hard to ignore what this filly has shown in her first four starts, and this Juddmonte-homebred benefits from the services of a rider that knows her well; this barn is 0-for-13 the past five years with North American starters.

Rosalind

She shared a G1 score with today's rival Room Service three back at Keeneland and this filly sports solid overall form; she was a sharp winner in her career debut over turf, and she unseated her rider when shipped overseas for her only other turf start in her latest outing; her dam won 4 of 11 turf starts for 127k; she has her share of appeal.

Xcellence (FR)

Group 3 winner has handled herself nicely in back-to-back G1 events in France prior to this, and she didn't seem to be fazed when handed added distance in her most recent outing; she commands respect as a top contender and like to see Mosse along for the ride.

Wonderfully (IRE)

She looks like she did some nice things in her first three career starts, and even though she's been in tough against G1 competition in five starts since then, it still would have been nice to have seen her show a little more in those races; maybe the addition of Lasix can prove to be a key for her.

Minorette

Respect what she's done in two starts since arriving in America, including earning a stakes placing in her latest outing when splitting a couple of today's rivals, but can't help but be more intrigued by the other Brown-trained filly in this spot.

Recepta

She was so impressive in winning her turf debut in a 100k stakes in her final start as a 2-year-old, and still feel that there's a decent chance that we haven't seen the best of this filly just yet; her connections are spotting her aggressively and perhaps she'll be ready for better while making her second start with Lasix.

Sea Queen

She enters this race fresh off of a stakes win and her fine positional speed can help her manage a comfortable trip after breaking from the outside; she seems to keep improving with experience and not going to be at all surprised if she's involved in the running throughout. - Brian Pochman

Race 10

Spot Play

MR ALGEBRA (#3, 9-2) did well to rally for the place in his latest, and he also closed well in his prior start, despite mild fractions; needs only a little pace help to make the last run. -Kenny Peck

Mister Dooley

Gelding has the 2 races to draw from now and at least he was more keen to run last time; show horse in last took an N1X with a 78 Beyer and the winner repeated in a $40K optional with a 88 figure; he's not been able to duplicate his maiden breaking Beyer and last figure was worse yet; needs a turn around.

Mobridge

Colt pressed the slow pace and still got late; if you figure he just needed the last then one can make a case for a move forward; fit enough to drill 5 times last month, he showed he belongs with the nice try in the 2013 closer; this guy should be much better today.

Mr Algebra

Gelding seems to be sitting on a win; 5/25 show horse cashed next out took a $100K state-bred stakes next with a 73 Beyer; fits the conditions nicely but 2 for 29 is a tough number to be into no matter how you slice it; contender, far from a cinch.

Spinning for Home

Impressive in the dirt win and he may have disliked the sealed muddy strip in last; gelding could also be more relaxed and aware of surroundings with the blinks off today; sire and dam both tried grass to no avail and this is the first foal from dam to try turf; look for rider to be much more aggressive this time.

Papa Freud

Seven and still trying, he nearly got through this condition last November but has not been able to match that 78 figure; could see him forwardly placed, but he really has just lacked that killer instinct; would be careful here.

Point Roll

Two excuses last time; the poor start and the mud; he has broken in twice now; he kept his legs moving last weekend and you can build a case for a nice stalk and pounce trip; can't fault those that give him another shot at glory after the chalk flop.

Noosh's Tale

Okay, he may have hated the yielding course in last but he has had tons of chances to move past this condition; over 6 clear two back, that's a positive and he did improve big time in that second off the layoff run; long overdue to get there.

Analysis

Racer lunged early and was pretty much finished at that point; nice bit of training to have him set to roll off the layoff going long and he was inching away late in the process; he has much more speed than he just flashed; don't ignore.

Four Directions

Soph has fired every time and the new blinks worked to perfection last time; 4/26 winner repeated in this league, then won again in a $40K optional here Wednesday; Velasquez got a chance to figure him out and Rice can keep them going good once they get good; valid threat if he gets a chance to suit up.

Adams Note

Don't be too harsh about last as it's always a chore to beat winners right back; 4th finisher in last cashed in this league next out and the 9th finisher beat $40K N2L foes next; both siblings were just sprint only; could see him forcing the issue but he sure gave up the ghost last time when hooked.

Chasintheblues

Blinks and dirt to turf worked nicely in last; now the waters get steeper; he did something you don't see everyday and that's come back on and win after losing the lead; that can be taxing; would take a step back here and watch.

Hidden Vow

Gelding has been around the wire several times at this level; connections thought he was going so well to bring him back in the stakes and he was getting to the winner late; out in post 11 in the 2013 closer so he could be compromised by this slot if scratches are kind; another slice? - Brian Mulligan