Belmont: Daily Game Plan for July 12

Race 1

Media Kid

Half-brother to G1 winner Go Between (8-27, $2.9 million, including 5 of 19 turf starts for $1.1 million) shares the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Grand Rapport, and he just appears to be going better than ever at this stage of his career; must respect.

Zane

He was beaten by a few of today's rivals in his latest start, but it is worth noting that he was sent to post as the favorite in that race; if he can rediscover the form that he displayed racing over the Gulfstream Park turf course over the winter, he'll have a say in the outcome.

Grand Rapport

Grade 3 winner regained some of his better form with a winning performance over today's rival Media Kid in his latest start, and that was a nice thing to see for his first start back from a layoff and his first turf start since October 2012; Velasquez has won with 9 of 39 (23%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Logan Street

Shakespeare has been a positive influence as a turf sire and this gelding has displayed a nice level of consistency in his 17 turf starts, but he's probably going to need his sharpest performance to date to beat the top contenders in this one; third place finisher from latest won next out at Mth on 7/4 going 1m vs. 30-25k N3L claimers with a 76 Beyer.

Kiss of Thunder

He's another in here who usually shows up and runs his race, but he was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his latest outing, and it's tough to envision him landing something more than a minor award in this spot; maybe the rider switch to Lezcano can help him along.

Pretension

He showed a little something the first time he raced over turf, his only turf route attempt, but this looks like a tough group for him to be moving in against after being claimed for 20k from his latest race.-Brian Pochman

Race 2

Devious Maddy

Was knocking on the door on turf then scored a muddy best-last-race Beyer speed figure graduation 1st time racing for this trainer; sees the win rider side with Saythreehailmary's; she raced well on fast dirt in her only attempt; today is her 1st experience from the 1 post which can be a tricky breaking point.

Saythreehailmary's

Disappointed as the 4-5 odds-on choice 1st time facing winners; her 2-back maiden romp on 'good' footing is a field-best Beyer speed figure; the debut runner-up finisher Beyered 65 in a next-out BEL-MSW win then repeated in a BEL allowance with a 64; is the one to beat.

Easy Living

Projects to be loose on the lead which is a scenario she's never had and it clearly benefits her win hopes; was dueled into defeat in last; her only dirt start was the maiden breaker at today's distance; the 30-day freshening and cutting back in distance are all positives; try to catch the pick.

Porvoo

Hard to back an 0-for-11 dirt record with 1 exacta finish; lone win was 26 races ago gate-to-wire October, 2012, on MED turf at 1 Mile; the 2-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a BEL-starter alw. with a 70 Beyer; 1 dirt exacta Sept., '12 was at 6Fon MTH dirt.

Daddy's Lil Saint

Both exacta finishes on dirt and finally gets back on the main track for this; went right to stakes company off the debut win; in October lost to the winner and show finisher; they Beyered 70-58 in next-out AQU-150K stakes and MSW wins; defeated the debut show finisher who Beyered 57 in a next-out BEL-MSW win; contender.

Gingee

0-for-16 layoff trainer since 2013 does not add to the appeal; 23rd race was the charm running up the score on maiden claimers; figures to work out a similar trip stalking Easy Living to the front; April, 2013, was the only other time she raced with as light as 113 pounds; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Golden Cheetah

1st-time Johnny V is always a plus; the 0-for-7 dirt record with 1 exacta is not very enticing however the 1 exacta was last out on today's BEL dirt oval; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-OPC with a 78 Beyer; has been a deep closer during career and has the misfortune of rallying into a pace not projected to be hotly contested.-Art Gropper

Race 3

Four Directions

Blinks and turf to dirt play worked to perfection last time; note place horse was well clear in last; winner 4/26 won twice since, the last in a $40K optional; veteran has fired every time, cozy slot this time and he has the confidence builder in his favor; don't ignore.

Jesses Giant Dunk

Fifth in both efforts at this level; only one published drill since being claimed; and he only beat 4 foes last time; place horse in last was 3 clear; in good hands, may need softer to show top talent.

Bambisfrostyracer

Boosted by the mile win, connections thought enough of him to try the stakes but he was fried in a duel; back on the preferred surface, runner should get first run on the deep closers with his tactical speed; don't sell too short.

Beyond Empire

Gelding has teased in this league a couple of times; don't be too harsh about last as he popped open the gate and probably left his race right there; racer has more speed than he just showed; expect much better effort for a racer that has a chance to mature with grace as kin to Grade 2 winner Josh's Madelyn, who banked nearly $500K.

Petrocelli

Nice effort in last but he's had his chances in this league; 1/23 place horse won in this league next out, was 3rd beaten a length in a $20K claimer here last month; like the fact he has speed but doesn't need the lead to win; best of 24 bullet locked and loaded but he must find a way to turn the tables on Onecats Chance among others.

Chrisandlorisposse

Gelding ran well when 2nd in the return effort to kick off 2014; best when sent along, he has more speed than he just flashed and last race came back okay; the 7th finisher won in this league, and the 11th finisher beat $30K shore foes next out; 3 regressions since the 2014 opener.

Onecats Chance

The good news is that he has been value in the gimmicks at this level before; and he was inching toward the winner last time; the bad news is lone win came on the inner when he was 12 off the pace; no speed, no asset; look for him in the picture late if at all.-Brian Mulligan

Vulnerable Favorites

FOUR DIRECTIONS (#1, 5-2) and BEYOND EMPIRE (#4, 3-1) like a couple horses in today’s Pick 5 and will leave a couple short-priced horses out of that multi race wager in the middle leg today; the former is a recent maiden graduate and draws the rail going 1m 1/16, while the latter has six straight losses at under 4-1 and seems to have lost his early foot with Ortiz.-Chuck Kuehhas

Race 4

Lonesome Town

Ships in to make her local debut after hitting the board in a couple of slow paced Monmouth turf stakes heats while earning numbers that fit well in this spot; inside draw means she should be able to sit a good spot from the bell and she did earn her last victory at this trip; with a top pilot taking the call she looks to be the one to beat.

How

Filly has speed and she's try the lawn for the first time after tiring as the chalk when stretched back out at Monmouth; her sire gets 10% winners from his initial surface starters and the dam never tried the green but dropped several winners who were a combined 0 for 9 on the lawn; barn's been on a pretty poor run with those trying the green for the first time and her turf drill across town earlier in the week wasn't very good but this filly does figure to at least offer some pace today.

Love Train

Gray looked awfully good running away from cheaper while sprinting in her turf debut here on Memorial Day and the barn boasts terrific numbers with its stretchouts; expect she'll find herself closer to the top early today and the fact the ship her down here from her Saratoga base rather than wait for that meeting to start next week suggests she's doing rather well; giving her the repeat nod.

Three Hearts

Makes her first start in nearly a year after a big G3 stakes try at Colonial sent her to the bench; she will tackle other older runners for the first time in this spot and she hasn't run so well over the local sod though she did catch a heavy course in her most recent try here; she'll probably better with this one behind her, but has run well fresh in the past and a top pilot will get aboard.

Malibu Holiday

Fresh sprinter tries the lawn in her return from nearly 3 months on the shelf after failing to factor in the Pimlico dirt stake; half of her 4 career wins have come on the green so she does like this type of footing and both of them came over the local sod; she'll get a weight break with a hot bug getting aboard and given her poor recent form the price should be right.

Simply Spectacular

Outside drawn filly has found herself since moving to the main track at the stand but now they'll put her back on the lawn; she did run into a bunch of next out winners the last few times she tried this surface, but it's not as if she was a legitimate threat in any of them; prefer to side with others on the win end.-Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Bryce Bryce Baby

Returns without blinkers and shows some steady breezes at even intervals; his sire won a G1 stakes and 2.19 million overall; the dam went 2 for 13 and 988K; among the winning siblings is 70K earner Gold Bear; should upgrade vs. these.

Hello Zealous

Firster hails from pure sprinter Here's Zealous, a G3 winner who banked 456K (his offspring have scored in 11 of 95 debuts); the dam won 3 of 20 attempts and 93K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Pepi's Find

Takes a while to get into gear and has earned only minor shares as a result; there does not appear to be a strong pace in the wings for this event and that will like compromise his chances once again; the apprentice must get the gelding into the race sooner.

Campion Lane

Returned some dividends for the new connections back in May and was given a rest; still believe that six furlongs is not the ideal distance for this runner yet he lands into a field today that seems light for the price tag involved; worth some trifecta inclusion therefore.

Sand Paper

Nothing to write about home about up to now but perhaps the combination of blinkers and Lasix can help with the reversal; displayed vast improvement in the June workout tab but cannot endorse until much more firepower is shown.

Hampden Fiveone

On pace cross-reference, and the fact that this is his first try for a tag, this gelding looks well positioned today; he was used up in a speed duel over a tiring turf course a month ago and that should serve as an excellent foundation for this attempt.

Regretless

Quit early in his only run while going to post at huge odds; his sire won a G3 and 794K while the dam won 1 of 22 and 44K; only siblings is 138K bankroller Strikeuptheblues; can last longer against this group.

Space Hero

Never fired up to now regardless of surface or distance; showed a bit more life in the workout regimen during the last month and perhaps the blinker removal will help with the awakening; still have major doubts.

King Gettigan

Steady check earner should be able to middle move against this group; had trouble in that solid placing 2 back yet still earned his best Beyer; should secure clear stalking journey but the price on the board is bound to be far less appealing now.

Startripenterprise

Raced evenly in his first attempt over the lawn; previous try is more noteworthy since he showed improved early speed over unfamiliar footing; should be within range of the soft pace that seems probable; worth some inclusion if outside sweepers have fared well on the card.-Jim Kachulis

Spot Play

BRYCE BRYCE BABY (#1, 6-1) gets a trainer change to Kimmel, removes the blinkers, but most importantly takes that big drop from MSW to maiden claiming; will play at 4-1 minimum.-Chuck Kuehhas

Race 6

Three for Me

His one start over turf wasn't a bad run, but this might prove to be a tough step up in class for this gelding after being claimed for 25k from his latest race; his fine positional speed can help him after breaking from a rail post that can be tricky, but he'll need a career best effort to beat this bunch.

Archer Hill

He was sharp winner against a field of 40k N2L claimers in his latest outing and this has to be considered a favorable spot for him to take another crack at statebred N1X allowance rivals; going to look for him to be making a strong move through the stretch once again today.

Wake Up in Malibu

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 5 of 10 starts for 248k, including 5 of 7 turf starts for 238k; this gelding is a 1/2 to Golly Day (1-11, 41k, including 1 of 9 turf starts for 40k); Velazquez has won with 3 of 10 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Hooked Forever

Hook and Ladder has been a poor influence as a turf sire but this gelding has proven that he's capable of dialing up a performance that is strong enough to be competitive in a spot like this; when looking at his 1-for-20 race record, he has to be approached with some caution, but he's clearly worthy of consideration underneath in the gimmicks.

Alabaster City

He was beaten by today's rival Wake Up in Malibu in his career debut, but he followed that effort up with a strong winning performance, and this will be a favorable spot for him to take on winners for the first time if this race has to be moved to the main track; Velasquez has won with 10 of 39 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Ziggy the Great

He ran to his backing to get the job done in is career debut with Castellano aboard, but his three starts against winners have been so-so at best, and he must show more in order to threaten the top contenders in this one.

Pegasus Red

His form has improved with a move to turf two starts ago, but it is difficult to envision him getting over on the top contenders in this spot; perhaps a minor award is within reach, but looking in another direction for the top spot.

Ganador

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; not wild about what he's shown in his two starts this year and turf is a question.

Wild Finish

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his turf starters and dam was winless from seven starts, including two turf starts; this gelding is a 1/2 to Exciting Missile (3-19, 60k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 18k); runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 6/19 going 1m vs. N1X alw. rivals with an 82 Beyer.

Brass Pear

Some of his recent dirt form has been okay, but he's tough to back in this spot when looking at what he's done in his four starts over turf; feel that his chances can be upgraded if this race has to be taken off the turf, but even in that instance a minor award is likely the ceiling.

One More Chief

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 14 starts for 26k, including 0-for-3 over turf; not sure about the move to turf for this gelding, but he does have some respectable dirt form on his card to look at.

Asset Inflation

Half-brother to Extra Zip (8-28, 267k over turf) has shown enough in his two turf attempts to be taken seriously in this spot, and it's worth noting that he's making his first start for the Maker barn after a 40k claim; must consider.-Brian Pochman

Race 7

Race 8

Live Longshot

ZOEBEAR (#7, 6-1): Got back to near his best Beyer Figures on the main track first time off a claim, and now makes the turf-to-dirt switch for a trainer who excels (38% wins in 2013-14) with that move.-Dave Litfin

Race 9

Hangover Kid

Grade 1 stakes placed veteran ran well from far off the pace in a G2 at Monmouth in his latest outing, and that was after getting bumped around at the start; as always, he needs to avoid falling too far out of it early on, but he was really rolling though the lane last time, and feel that he must be respected off of that performance.

Horvat Clan

Maybe he can get himself involved in the running through the opening stages, but he was claimed for 25k just two starts ago, and he's never run a race that is up to the level of the top contenders in here; he has the look of an outsider.

Boisterous

Grade 1 winner has won 12 of 28 turf starts, including six of 12 over the Belmont Park turf, and even though he might have lost a little bit off of his fastball this year, this is a decent spot for him to try to secure another G2 victory; Velazquez has won with 10 of 43 (23%) mounts for this barn at the current stand.

Chamois

This colt was sharp in back-to-back starts to close out 2013 and begin 2014, and not going to be too tough on him for the sub par performance in his latest outing; however, it might be fair to question his effectiveness at today's 1 1/2m distance; leaning toward others.

Grandeur (IRE)

Multiple graded stakes winner looks like a very nice fit in this G2 event, and he's been seen tackling G1 competition in recent starts; his lack of early speed can cause some anxious moments, but going to look for him to give a strong account of himself in this spot while making his second start with Lasix.

Sky Blazer

He deserves a lot of credit for his consistent approach to the game, but he's probably going to need to see a number of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at seeing his number posted on top after this one is run; not counting out of a minor award, but looking in another direction for the top spot.

Reflecting

Not sure that his best effort is quite strong enough to get the job done in this spot, but when considering that this barn has won with 31 of 104 (30%) graded stakes starters in turf races the past three years, it's kind of tough to count him out of it.-Brian Pochman

G2 Bowling Green By Michael Hammersly

GRANDEUR
Call us stubborn. We tried GRANDEUR in the Grade 1 Man o’ War here May 11 at 9-2. Tried him again in the Grade 1 Manhattan here June 7 at almost 4-1. A couple frustrating runs later saw him defeated in each, finishing third and fourth, respectively. However, it’s not inconceivable that with a change in trips here or there and some racing luck he could have won both those races. So, we’ll take another swing with the globetrotter who drops a notch in class after proving himself among the better turf horses in the U.S.

We already knew that about him when he came here from England this spring. After all, in 2012 he nearly won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby (ran second) and did win the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. He went back to England, returned to finish seventh in last year’s Grade 1 Arlington Million, returned overseas to win three of his next five. That sent him to the U.S. riding high so he looked well spotted for the Man o’ War. He stalked the pace inside that day behind a slow pace and stayed on nicely to finish third behind top-class U.S. runners Imagining and Real Solution. No shame in that. In the Manhattan he took a different approach, sitting far back off a solid pace and finishing well, albeit far too late as top turfers Real Solution, Kaigun and Seek Again beat him. But he finish still showed there was plenty of gas in the tank. Now if they can just strike a happy medium style-wise he can get that elusive next win.

Joel Rosario takes the call and a solid pace should be in the making with CHAMOIS certainly a horse with speed and others like BOISTEROUS and HORVAT CLAN at least able to keep him honest. That means Rosario can likely sit just behind those guys, biding his time until it’s time to ask the 5-year-old son of Verglas to hit the gas. And this time there’s no one like Imagining or Real Solution of Seek Again to try and outkick, though his rivals are no softies to be sure.

His trainer Jeremy Noseda said this is the horse’s final race in the U.S. before shipping back to England. While he knew GRANDEUR had a shot in the Man o’ War and Manhattan he fully realized THIS race was his best chance to grab the brass ring.

Of course, you pay the price for all that. Instead of getting 9-2 and nearly 4-1 as you did in his last two outings, this time he figures to be favored, somewhere in the 7-5 range. It looks like a price worth taking, or at least with exactas you can take that short payoff and possibly turn it into a 4-1 or better exacta payoff.

As noted, while these aren’t the divisions best that doesn’t mean they’re just going to lie down and let him take the money. BOISTEROUS is a quality animal. He won the Grade 1 Man o’ War here in 2013 and was a nice third in this race last September. His solid third to Horse of the Year Wise Dan and top-class Seek Again in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard shows he still has it at age 7. He didn’t fare too well in the Grade 1 Manhattan but it’s nice to see they opt to bring him right back for this race. He is a question mark at the 12-furlong trip, however (off the board in his only two prior tries). His class may carry him through.

REFLECTING is another of interest. The 5-year-old is two for three at this 1 1/2- mile trip. He comes off a very good third in the 2-mile Belmont Gold Cup here June 6. That was his first outing almost two months so he may well improve. A bullet :49.60B here July 6 says he’s doing well for Shug McGaughey who isn’t in the Hall of Fame because he puts his horses in the wrong spots.

Race 10

Lady Seeker

Turns back to sprint after offering little at the level going long late last month; she'll draw the fence again for this while picking up weight with a new pilot named for her second start in shades; dam was winless in 8 career starts and this one's lone sib to race only ran once, in last weekend's Lynbrook Stakes on the main track, setting the pace before holding on to finish third; not a lot to suggest a big move forward is on tap.

Luna Brava

Speedy gray drops back in with claimers after setting solid splits against MSWs at this trip in the last out fade; she's kin to several multiple main track winners and 6 figure earners including SW and 154K earner Margies Smile, but there's not much turf on the dam's side of the pedigree; still, her speed could prove a factor in this weak field.

Joshans Giant

Newcomer is by a sire who is 5 for 42 with his first out runners and 0 for 27 with his initial surface starters; dam won twice but was off the board in all 4 turf spins prior to dropping several winners including minor SW Lou's Expectation who won 3 times on the green and banked 308K; barn is quite capable of firing right out of the box and their first call pilot gets aboard in this soft spot.

Pie's First Lady

Takes the powerful drop in for a tag for the initial time after showing little in he first start of the year; barn's second runner in here gets a weight break with a hot bug named and she has run well at the trip and over the course in the past; she's had her chances, but with a right to move forward off the return try she must be considered.

Lakeview Lady

She's in for a tag again after fading at the trip in her first start of the year behind a couple of gals who have returned to win; filly does have early foot and should be tighter with her last behind her; effort 2 back over the local sod puts her in the mix in this spot and she will get in light with a bug named.

Sea Isle Sandy

She's shown little in her 4 career starts including a poor run first out on the Aqueduct lawn in the spring; her sibs are a combined 0 or 6 on the green so don't think that a move back to this footing will shake her up much; have to pass on this longshot.

Camie's Dancer

She's another taking the initial drop to claimers after failing to get involved from the inside draw in her surface debut; filly has shown some speed on the main track in the past but there's not a lot to suggest she's going to improve enough second time on the lawn to contend, even with these; barn is winless this year; can't back her today.

Molly Jordan

Showed little in 2 dirt starts at Saratoga last summer and now she'll try the green in her first crack for a top barn; dam was 0 for 2 on the green prior to dropping several winners including one who scored first time on the footing and her sire has gotten off to a 7 for 27 start with his initial turf runners; works aren't much, but they are steady and they couldn't have found a much softer spot on the drop as a top pilot gets aboard; contender.

Gu Gu Beans

Turns back to sprint after holding third money here a couple of weeks ago, earning a number that would put her in the thick of this one; she failed to capitalize on a pace duel in front of her when 81-1 against open company runners at the trip 2 starts back but still finished with a figure that fits with this unappealing bunch; can't count her out.

Churn Notice

Goes back to the pilot aboard for her turf debut run after again doing little at a big price with MSWs in the mud last week; dam was an 11 time winner and 345K earner but finished off the board in each of her turf spins; can only watch her today.

Daddy's Big Girl

Six year old gets back to the green after tiring from her pace efforts against open company on the Finger Lakes main track; she's done little on the lawn in the past and don't think the move to face fellow statebreds will help her much here.

Home to Carrowkeel

Newcomer is by a sire who gets 12% first out winners and first time turf winners from his offspring; dam banked 113K and all 4 of her wins came on the green including the first time she stepped on the stuff and she dropped 4 winners including Please Impress, a 257K earner who won on the green.

Josie's Prospect

AE adds the hood while tackling a sprint trip for just the second time in her career; she wasn't beaten all that much in his 2 starts going long at this level and though turn backs may not be as potent on the green as they are on the main track, she should have some bottom from the recent route spins; contender if she gets to face this weak bunch.

Countess Twice

AE did little when stretched out at the level in her surface debut a couple of weeks back; she was a solid dirt sprinter earlier in the year but there's not much on the dam's side of the pedigree to suggest she'll be better second time on the green.

Saratoga Valley

AE debuts for a barn that hasn't had much recent luck with newcomers; cheap filly's recent drills are ok and her dam was never worse than second in 3 career spins on the main track prior to dropping 5 winners including one who won twice on the green; sire gets just 5% first out winners from his offspring and 8% of his first turfers find the winner's circle.

Dakota's Pick

AE is mired on the list and not likely to get in here; 7 year old will get shades for her return from a freshening and has shown some speed on dirt, but there's been little left for the drive in each of her starts and her sire is just 3 for 57 with his first time turfers; dam was 0 for 5 on the green prior to dropping 2 turf winners including one who scored first time on it.-Steve Grabowski

Spot Play

JOSHANS GIANT (#3, 5-1) has some decent works showing and trainer Linda Rice, of course, is excellent when it comes to turf sprinters; figures to come out running. -Kenny Peck