Belmont: Daily Game Plan for Friday, July 4

Race 1

Vulnerable Favorite

Vulnerable favorite HIGH HEEL KITTEN (#1, 5-2) has not improved a step over five race career, so will look elsewhere; hot trainer virtually assures favoritism here today. - Chuck Kuehhas

High Heel Kitten

Four of her first five starts have been quality ones and she shows up for a top turf barn that has had a strong meeting; note the success that Bravo has had riding for this outfit; winner from latest won next out here on 6/22 going 1 1/2m over turf vs. N1X alw. rivals with an 84 Beyer.

Truly Mizzed

She finished behind today's rival Antrim Colleen in her latest start, but that was a solid performance for her first start going 1 1/4m and she can benefit from having that start behind her; she might find herself sitting a soft trip right behind possible pacesetter Indy's Million.

Queen's Parade

Her form has improved from start-to-start to begin her career and she finished in front of today's rival High Heel Kitten in her latest outing; winner from latest won next out here on 6/22 going 1 1/2m over turf vs. N1X alw. rivals with an 84 Beyer; must respect.

Dynesque

900k purchase was much improved the second time around and this filly is by a strong turf sire and out of a G3 winning dam who won 3 of 14 turf starts for 326k; this filly is plenty eligible to still have more to show us.

Indy's Million

Her turf form with blinkers has been improved but she's going to need to continue to show more if she's to get the better of rivals that have beaten her in her last two starts; working in her favor, she appears to have enough early speed to grab the early advantage in a paceless race.

Antrim Colleen

Late running filly seems to keep improving and she got the better of a few of today's rivals in her latest outing; 4-year-old faces strictly 3-year-old competition and she's proven that she has the ability to get the btter of a field of this caliber.

Call Her Sunny

She's out of a G2 winning dam who won 4 of 15 turf starts for 213k, but this miss was outrun every step of the way in her career debut after going to post at just under 50-1; runner up from debut won next out at Mth on 5/25 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 78 Beyer, and third finisher won next out here on 5/22 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 73 Beyer.

Race 2

Mary's in Utopia

Can handle this raise as she has earned several consecutive checks while achieving a personal best Beyer in the last placing; latest training track breeze was fair and she has legitimate money chances once again.

Kleptocrat

Should have gained much education from that first run; her sire won a G2 stakes and 723K overall; the dam never raced; among the winning siblings is 37K earner Magic Q.G.; latest workout showed much more enthusiasm; respect.

Quit Smokin

Flashed speed in a classic tightening effort last month; can last far longer today if not pressured in the backstretch run by Glenbrook; had the misfortune of running into repeat winners in her juvenile campaign; remains a difficult assessment.

Sea Isle Sandy

Beat only 2 horses in 3 starts and this turnback in distance will likely not matter; has not shown anything in the way of early foot and is bound to be in a negative position from the opening bell; cannot endorse.

Girlaboutown

Offspring of A.P. Indy, who won multiple G1s and 2.97 million, have scored in 95 out of 837 debuts; the dam won multiple G2s and 376K; winning siblings include 40K earner Berning Carbs; found a nice spot to begin her career.

Miz Sweet

Did not have the smoothest of trips in her first outing; her sire won a G3 and 354K while the dam won 3 of 16 and 62K; among the winning siblings is 134K earner Sweet Sway; same recent workout as Kleptocrat, the other Baker trainee.

Glenbrook

One of the few in the field with known gate speed; she was chasing the blowout winner in her last try before fading in mid-stretch; her sire was a G2 sprinter who banked 1.36 million; the dam was unraced; sib to 22K earner Ballythunder.

Churn Notice

Never fired after failing to break alertly in her maiden voyage over the green; her sire won a G3 and 456K while the dam won 11 of 58 and 345K; among the winning siblings is 11K earner Local Motion; generous odds assured once again.

Star Grazing

Aimed high in her 2013 finale and appears nicely positioned today; the month tab during June, presumably without blinkers, indicates she is ready for her sophomore debut; seems capable of making first run on the leaders.

Race 4

Arc Above

Looking at this as being a tough spot for him to land in after facing 35k claimers in his latest outing, but it is worth noting that he was claimed by an outfit that has been hitting at a 30% clip with starters right after a claim; Velazquez has won with 14 of 51 (27%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Treasury Devil

He's stakes placed racing overseas and he gave a solid account of himself in his first start for this barn in his latest outing; leaning toward others for the top spot, but he has mild appeal with Lanerie getting the call.

Red Vine

He looks like he's on top of his game entering this race and that was an impressive looking winner that reeled him in late in his most recent start; he has the look of a top contender and Rosario has won with 8 of 29 (28%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Wabbajack

There isn't any dirt form in the main body of this race, so if this event has to be taken off the turf, it will be tough to look in any other direction; he's hinted at real ability from time-to-time and he put together a nice performance in his first start back from a layoff in his latest outing; obvious threat.

Legendary (GB)

He's run well in both of his starts since arriving in America and the 93 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in a dead-heat victory in his latest outing is the best last race figure in this field; he's tough to ignore with Castellano in the pedals.

Cheyenne Nation

He ran well after a layoff two starts back when getting going a little too late and he was up against it in a paceless race in his latest outing; C.V. knows him well and feel that this veteran can make some noise in this spot if he feels up to one of his better efforts.

Royal Blessing

Have to be at least mildly concerned by the time off, but he usually shows up and gives a good account of himself, and it doesn't hurt to see that he's won three of five starts over this turf course; at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Mills

Stakes placed gelding deserves a lot of credit for his consistent approach to the game and his best effort is strong enough to get him in to the mix against these; a sharp turf barn sees fit to assign an apprentice and this gelding is a proven commodity over this turf course and at the distance.

Top Striker

Obviously the distance shouldn't bother him, and his flat form hasn't been bad, but still feel that this is a tough spot for him to land in; there is a chance that the early pace will be slow to develop, but he's likely going to have a difficult time even if things shape up perfectly.

Race 5

Spot Play

MIGHTY REWARD (#8, 9-2) has developed into a rare "six furlong/turf" specialist; she may be able to run them all down given enough pace up front. -Kenny Peck

Lady Luciano

Draws the fence for her turf debut while stepping back in with statebreds first time off the barn's claim; she's got speed and it figures to be on display from this inside draw; sire is winless from 26 first time turfers but he improves to hitting with 10% of his overall surface runners; dam won 6 times, but was off the board in her lone turf try as was her lone foal to step on the footing.

White Crane

Just missed lasting after making all the pace at this trip when shades were added last month; there's some other speed in here, but from this draw she'll likely be sent and should be able to assume command from the outset; she's been stuck at the level and has several times burned money in the condition, but it looks as if they'll have to come and get her to win.

Fantastic Eyes

Lost her best shot at the break while making her first start of the year here last month and finished well behind some of the gals she'll catch again in this spot; expect she'll be tighter with the try behind her and the pace should at least be honest; worth a good look.

Courageous Karen

Couldn't keep up late while tying winners for the first time last fall and has been idle since; mare has solid early foot and expect her fresh speed will help get her involved from the bell today, but have to think she ends up needing this one.

Amber Morning

Ships back in here after offering little second off the break at Monmouth last month; neither of her local course spins was much and though she earned a number that fits here in the Gulfstream maiden breaker, she got a pretty nice setup; can't make a solid case for her today.

Distorted Beauty

Drew outside in her second out turf debut over the course and her lack of lick put her in a tough spot early, but she overcame the wide run to score going away while earning a very competitive figure; she'll tackle winners for the first time here, but she's had time to recover from the big effort and she should get at least an honest clip in front of her here; giving her the repeat nod.

Kimmies Lucky Star

Makes her first start of the year after showing little from a wide spot going a bit further here in the fall; filly doesn't have any early foot and she boasts a moderate worktab for a low percentage outfit; just watching her late run today.

Mighty Reward

Just missed getting to one of these at the trip and level last time and now she'll move to an outside slot; both of her wins did come over the course but now she'll return just 3 weeks off a career best number and maybe that makes it tough for her to get back to it in this spot; maybe for a share.

Touching My Toes

Turns back to sprint while returning from a brief freshening for an outfit that boasts excellent numbers with this type; don't know that she'll be quick enough to go with some of these sprinters early, but she does have route speed and breezed last week as if she'll be able to use it to secure a tracking trip from here; may offer a little bit of value as well.

Race 7

Spot Play

SAYAAD (#8, 8-1) been off since a pair of sharp efforts last year, earning excellent 3yo turf figures in the process, the last one a key race; 4yo colt didn’t disgrace himself in lone graded effort in ’13 and McLaughlin usually has them ready to run. - Chuck Kuehhas

Plainview

He wants to be in front early and he couldn't keep up to a fast pace when he came back from a lengthy layoff in the Grade 3 Poker; the past five years DiPrima has a 13 percent strike rate with horse making their second start following a layoff; his biggest problem is that there is plenty of other speed in the field and it is hard to see him getting away on his own; plenty of class here so he could hang around long enough to work his way into the exotics.

Bio Pro

He has made a quick adjustment to racing on the east coast and he won't mind the slightly shorter distance following his easy front-running win in his second start in New York;; the water is a lot deeper here but he could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle, and he should get a nice trip from a stalking position; contender.

General Logan

He is coming off a decent effort in a $100K optional race in his first start of the year and the past five years Motion has a 19 percent strike rate with horses making their second start back; this came up pretty tough, however, and he comes in a bit light in the class department plus he is going to need to top his career-best Beyer Speed Figure to contend here; passing.

Za Approval

6-year-old millionaire may have moved too soon into the quick pace in the Poker when he finished third as the heavy chalk May 26; this will be the first time he's been in a non-graded stakes for a while and he will appreciate the easier company; no Wise Dan's to worry about here and he considering the way this is likey to shape up he has the right running style; despite some concerns that he might be tailing off, he is still the pick.

Dawly

Main Track Only was given a 105 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in an $80K optional claiming race May 29 and he would clearly be the one to beat if it came off the lawn; since being claimed by Rodriguez for $15K in 2012 the only time he's finished worse than third was in the Grade 3 Excelsior where 1 1/8 miles may have been to far for him, plus, the winner came right back to run a big race behind Palace Malice in the Grade 3 Metropolitan.

Kharafa

NY-bred looked good beating state-breds in his latest and he was good enough to beat Plainview in an open stakes across town last Nov.; he loves this course and he's another one that has good speed but can stalk; Hills has won with half of the horses he has started at the meet and it is encouraging to see Castellano back on board; contender.

Hamp

Deep closer should appreciate the shape of the race if they all go and he is coming off a race where he earned his career-best Beyer Speed Figure so he's clearly headed in the right direction; first time on this surface is a question we're not sure what the answer is but the past five years his trainer has a 20 percent strike rate with horses running in non-graded stakes in New York; interesting.

Sayaad

This will be his first start since he won a $100K optional race last Oct. and the past five years McLaughlin has a 27 percent strike rate with horses returning from a layoff of 180 days or more so he's obviously ready to go; horse that finished third in his latest became a nice horse on dirt and he recently won the Grade 3 Marlyland Sprint at Pimlico; other speed in the field could make this guy's comeback race a difficult task; tough call.

Race 8

Spot Play

BUG JUICE (#3, 4-1): Field’s top earner gets back to preferred surface after being claimed from a turf sprint last week; new connections must’ve had this starter allowance in mind, as the veteran sprinter is a snug fit to the conditions. --Dave Litfin

Denzel

Trying to make amends off 4 consecutive-favored losses; late runner projects to save all the ground then make one run; defeated the 2-back show finisher who posted an 82 Beyer speed figure in his next-out PRX-starter allowance win; 1st time on BEL dirt today while coming off his lowest Beyer since March which is not a great sign.

Bug Juice

Way off his best form in last posting his lowest Beyer since February; was seemingly claimed for this spot by a high-percentage 1st-off-the-purchase trainer; his March victory at 7F on a sloppy track looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 76 in a next-out AQU-optional-claiming win; he will be doing the rain dance for this hoping for a wet track.

Glory Game

Projects as a forward factor chasing Bet the Power from the gate; has only raced 1st at the 1st call 3 times in 26 races and hasn't won on the lead yet; obviously a great sign that his latest BEL dirt race represents his best Beyer since November, 2012; view as a major pace presence.

Joan's Choice

Shortens back up to a sprint race for the 1st time since November; needed 2 turns to get his 1st-2014 win 2-back; his 6-0-0-2 BEL dirt record is not easy to take; 102 field-best Beyers were posted during the winter of 2012 in AQU-Inner Dirt/main track 6F starter-handicap races.

Reserved Quality

Late runner nearly scored a last-to-1st victory in most recent and obviously a sharper gate break would have gotten him home a winner at MTH; the 4-0-0-0 BEL dirt record does little for the confidence level noting his last race here June, 2013, at 1 Mile on dirt he finished 4th in an OPC.

Noble Doss

Just 1 of 2 runners to have won on BEL dirt; late runner gets his class tested after handling lesser but posted a career-best Beyer when sent 1 Mile which may be his best distance currently; has a bounce chance here drilling the new Top following more than a 5-month absence and now back in just 23 days for this.

Apex

Projects to stalk Bet the Power then hopes to run by him like he did 2-back; has a negative 5-pound weight swing for the rematch; exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when sent 1F longer than this where a factor from bell to finish; in the mud defeated the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 92 in a next-out BEL alw. win; his March win at 6F saw him defeat the runner-up who Beyered 71 in a next-out AQU-25K-claiming win; looms a logical contender for win honors.

Bet the Power

Is 4-for-7 during career when racing 1st at the 1st call; projects as the one to catch here in a race lacking pace; positive 5-pound weight swing from the 2-back favored loss vs. Apex and the runner-up who Beyered 92 in a next-out BEL alw. win; try to catch the pick.

Cast a Doubt

1st-time Johnny V riding winning 25% for the trainer at BEL since 2013; he is 7-0-3-2 with blinkers on during career; the hood was added back to the mix in last as well as front wraps on for the 1st time ever; was edged by the 3-back show finisher who Beyered 88 in a next-out AQU-50K-claiming win; seems the one to beat.

Demon's Deputy

Latest snapped an 0-for-9 mark on BEL dirt; just 1 of 2 runners to have won on the BEL main track; moves all the way outside after saving ground from the rail in last; projects to race midpack today then hopes to show off the late kick displayed in latest 51 days ago when defeating lesser; has to pass the class test.

Race 9

Baffle Me

Spotty race record is a bit of a concern; she did pick up 14 Beyer digits in the last second off the layoff run; she has much more speed than she just flashed and she showed she fits in this league with the Jazzy score last year; note Rosario coaxed her to victory last year; respect.

Angel's South

Mare was in kind of tough on the cut back in last but she tried till the end; 3/19 show horse cashed next out in a $62.5K optional, then lost next pair; winner 2/23 took a $75K stakes in next, then lost twice in Graded company; she ran her eyeballs out in defeat 3 back; probably needs to improve to cash.

Joy

Maybe she just needed the last effort; like the series of drills coming to this race and the 4/5 place horse took a $25K optional next out, then ran out of the money; filly could have sulked last time after the poor starts but she was still inching toward the winner late; must find a way to turn the tables on Embarr among others.

Belle Gallantey

Three straight wins off the claim before she found the Phipps waters a tad too steep; she has been a good earner in her career and despite the traffic jam in last, was beaten less than 2; will at least muddle the pace if she gets a shot to suit up.

Lady Ten

Baffert had her out West and she proved her class winning the Grade 3; mare has been given time since she stopped on a dime in Maryland; a bit more keen to drill in the move last Sunday and her tactical speed will give her first run on the deep closers; don't sell too short.

Waterway Run

Miss had dead aim at the top of the lane last time, just could not close the deal; maybe she was just overmatched; she has shown the ability to force a slow pace or come from left field; versatile, dangerous and Brown continues to win races in bunches.

Orion Moon (FR)

Only one off effort stateside and mare was hung wide that day; she has been agile enough to overcome poor starts and she got a boost when the 3/26 winner took a Grade 2 in next and then won the Grade 1 Just a Game with a 98 Beyer; slight improvement and she will be a handful.

Mah Jong Maddnes

Empire-bred comes to the race at the top of his game; he was fully extended to hold in last and we really don't know how much it may have taken out of him; she at least kept her legs moving in the drill on Monday; may need own kind to shine.

Alaura Michele

The sprint last time could serve as the ideal prep; proven in this kind of stakes back in the day, she has a nice turn of late foot but has been handled by a couple of today's foes; look for rider to take a little hold, try to save ground and then make the one run.

Embarr

Been on a Graded stakes menu for most of the last couple of years; off slow in last, wide in last 3 but she showed her ability in the Dahlia when cashing in game style; she was defending her title that day and this rider was up for the last 2 wins; look for her late if at all.

Race 10

Assured Victory

Moves inside for his return to the local sod after being given 5 months off following the weak spin on the Parx main track; gelding has some speed and maybe that helps him overcome the starting slot and the last time he ran under this outfit's care he was a winner; should appreciate the return to grass.

Storm Pursuit

Returns to the local circuit after earning a career best number in the Delaware off the turfer early last month; gelding has the speed to get involved from the bell here and he has run fast enough on this circuit to win this; barn hasn't had any luck at the stand, but last week's drill suggests this guy is on his toes for this; looks like they'll have to come and get him to win.

Run Run Forrest

Dumped his pilot early in the local mud last time after showing little against statebred claimers; sire gets 7% winners from his first time turfers and the dam was a 4 time route winner who was off the board in her lone start over this footing so don't know that he's going to love the surface switch; just watching him here.

Slamarama

Hasn't been the same since taken by this outfit out of an open lengths trip score over the course late last summer; colt showed some improved early foot with shades added last time but had nothing left for the drive and finished well beaten by some of these; he did have early trouble when return from the break on the local lawn 2 back so maybe getting back to this surface helps and the price will be big.

Perfect Trippi

Makes his second start on the lawn after offering little threat to a couple of these in the off the turfer when stepped up to this level last time; gelding has early foot and he showed it on the sod here last fall as well, but his lack of stamina of late makes it tough to give him another crack here; have to side with others.

Decisive Move

Changed hands again after the trip to Louisiana and now he'll return to the scene of a sharp placing against better late last summer; gelding is a local course winner and he's run pretty well fresh in the past; he's got the speed to find a tracking spot from the bell and his morning move a couple of weeks back suggests he's on his toes for this one; they'll have him to beat.

Sun Bear

Seven year old was given a little time off this barn's claim last out and now they'll move him back to the lawn for his local course debut; he was pretty solid when tackling grass last summer and maybe the return to this footing is what he wants, but note that he's won just once from 21 spins on the green; solid out of town journeyman pilot gets aboard.

River Boss

Offered some late run in the mud in his return from the freshening at the level; colt has run well going long on the green in the past and he showed last time that he can handle a one turn trip; if he gets some pace in front of him maybe he again comes running late; consider.

Fourseventeen

Fresh 7 year old has earned a handful of minor awards on the local sod and wasn't beaten all that much last time; while he's run well on the lawn, this isn't his preferred trip and he hasn't run so well off the break; maybe for another minor award.

Bos'n Alwyne

Hasn't been a factor in a while on the main track for a barn that's had little impact with its limited runners here; he's done little in his 2 tries on the green so there's not much to suggest the surface switch will move him up; can't use him here.

Life's a Roar

Limited winner returns from the break to try open claimers who are a lot more accomplished than he is; he's been ok on the lawn with cheaper in the past but don't think he's good enough to step with these; passing on this longshot.

J P's Fling

Gelding makes his first local sod start after another poor effort on the main track; he hasn't been in the money in a long time and his back turf tries are not much at all; looms another huge price.

Coach A. J.

AE adds the hood for the surface switch after yet another weak try on dirt; gelding is a grass winner but neither of his local course tries fit here; have to look elsewhere.

Tiger Willie

AE wasn't a threat going long on the sod last time and he's lost all 2 of his local grass tries; there's not a lot to suggest he'll go a lot better on the cut back to this trip and the barn and this pilot don't win many races.

Take Down Two

MTO will catch a mostly turf meant bunch if this comes off and he does own 6 wet track wins; he doesn't win very often and hasn't shown a lot of early foot, but in this field he'd be one to fear in the lane if the rains came.