Belmont: Daily Game Plan for Friday, July 11

Race 1

Spot Play

HOPE STILL SPRINGS (#5, 7-2) ships up from Maryland for barn that does amazing work on the circuit with new claims; exits key race at Pimlico with 2 out of 3 next out winners. - Chuck Kuehhas

Pretty Like Me

She took a big step forward in her second start when blinkers were added and she could be sitting on a peak effort here; horse that finished third came back to win a state bred $40K maiden claimer with a 45 Beyer Speed Figure here May 3; rail could be an issue but she comes out of a live barn that has solid numbers with horses coming back in this time period; contender.

Miz Sweet

Debuts for Baker who the past five years has a 10 percent strike rate with first-time starters; sire 3/22 (14%) with first timers; dam won 3 times and earned $26K; 2 of 4 sibs are winners including 6-time Sweet Azarel who won her debut at 2; works just average but so is the field she is facing; not out of the question.

Glass Zealing

Blinkers go on following a dull debut where she never really got involved after breaking a few steps slow in a quickly-run race won by Pearls for Girls who came back to win a first-level allowance race for state breds; first foal out of a mare that won 10 races and earned $286K should have some upside to her; nonetheless, others look more attractive.

Penella

She's picked up slices in three of her four starts and the only time she wasn't part of the tri she was stretching out for the first time; claimed out of her latest and the past five years Divitto is 3/12 running back newly claimed horses; Castellano attracted; consider for the exotics.

The Lost Tigress

Second from Baker received a lot of support when she debuted in a key race last year but she faded after showing some early interest; blinkers and Lasix are being added for her second start and the past five years Baker has a 17 percent strike rate with maidens making thier second start following a layoff of 180 days or more; dam's lone win came on turf; only sib won three routes; nice set of works leading up to her return; the pick.

All Luv Me

Her Beyer Speed Figure regressed in her latest but it was a good effort as she broke well enough from the rail but was eased back into a stalking position and then made a strong move around the turn while going four wide; she should be able to fall into a stalking position from this post or it is possible she'll be the one they have to catch; big shot.

Quit Smokin

She ran into a couple of decent fillies in her two starts at two; winner of her debut won her next start and recently won a $50K stakes at Finger Lakes; winner of her second won her next two and has earned $242K ; the last two horses Hertier brought back from a layoff of a year or more both finished third; homebred is the first foal out of a mare that didn't win in 6 starts; bullets fired in her last two works on the training track; contentions runs deep.

Race 2

Giant Slayer

Debut wasn't too hot but hey, you can always be forgiving about a first run; it also came on turf and routing; well, now he has a feel for this distance and he moves to dirt, and there's a strong :47B bullet here July 5 to indicate he's got ability; Clement a strong 21% 2nd time out; interesting Rosario ends up on firster Three Alarm Fire today instead; 2 of 3 sibs are winners including Welcome Guest (3 wins, $207K, G3 SP).

Aggrandizement

Seemed to be getting the hang of it last fall/winter; trouble is, after an improved run (4th) routing at GP Feb. 22 he hasn't been seen since; at least there's no panicky drop by trainer Nick and the works are encouraging; cost $300K so they likely have some expectations here; 2 of 3 sibs are winners including Counselor Cabot (1 win, $28K); too early to give up on but he better come back improved after nearly 5 months off if he's to have a say.

Sublime

Looks moire than a little scary as he progressed decently this winter/spring; 3rd at PRX May 5 was followed with a 2nd to impressive winner Tiz Dark here May 25 and this guy got an 85 Beyer; freshened since with 2 smart recent works for a trainer who's superb off the bench.

Rare Eagle

Showed talent with 3 straight 3rds this winter/spring but then came a dull turf try (9th) here May 18; that was his first start on turf so maybe he just hated the footing; been freshened since, moves back to dirt, there's no drop and he's been working steadily; 2 of 3 sibs are winners Cutter (4 wins, $109K) and Bright Town (3 wins, $59K, twice SP).

Stockholder

May 17 debut here was encouraging; bided his time and kept to his task decently to be 3rd; OK, so he was no threat (beaten 7 lengths) but at least he showed talent; been given plenty of time since, gets a bit more ground and has worked well for a trainer who's got good 2nd-time-out numbers (21%); 3 of 5 sibs to race are winners including Nefertini (5 wins, $316K, G2 SW, G3 SP).

Sea Raven

No factor first time out but as noted above you can always be forgiving about a debut run; slow start sure didn't help and he was 36-1 so not much was expected anyway; bred for this longer trip so today's distance may help; that being said, he was facing NY-breds only in his June 29 debut and now must deal with open foes; 2 of 3 sibs are winners Mississippi Too (2 wins, $102K) and Smokem's Charm (4 wins, $111K, SP).

Successful Runner

Been knocking on the door having run 2nd (3) and 3rd (3) in all 6 starts; sharp 2nd at GP March 20, was freshened, came here and was a good 2nd June 20; obviously a good fit at the level and he handles the trip just fine; likely needs to find a few more lengths to match up with Sublime's best but that's hardly out of reach; 3 of 4 sibs are winners including Kimono (1 win, $97K, SP).

Three Alarm Fire

No stats yet on young sire Pyro; sire won 5 of 17 for $1.6 million, was G2/multiple G3 SW, also 3-time G1 SP; dam has 1 winner from 2 foals to race, Medal of Valour (1 for 7, $6K, in England); plenty of works so there's a foundation here, though those works don't exactly get the pulse racing; Albertrani clicks at 15% when debuting a runner going a mile or longer.

Race 3

Lucky Nancy E.

Homebred ran her best race over a yielding course so her chances would improve if there is some give in the course; check the results of Thursday's ninth to see how the winner of her latest ran back; this gal probably isn't the winner here but she has improved lately and should be considered for the exotics.

Wraith

3-year-old will try turf for the first time and she is the first foal out of a route-winning mare that went unplaced in two turf attempts; her sire earned $3.4 million on the main track but never ran on the lawn and is 10 percent with first-time turfers; since 2010 the barn is 0/14 with horses trying turf the first time; she will appreciate the easier company but not sure about the surface; prefer others if it stays on the lawn.

Funky Munky Fever

She was 80-1 so it was hard to see her second in the NY Stallion Stakes coming; nonetheless, she's lightly raced, won her previous start, and could just be getting the hang of it; she certainly benefitted from a very fast pace and she probably won't get the same kind of set up here; she comes out of a live barn and she could make some noise if she continues to move forward; tough call.

Semester Abroad

6-year-old has been looking for her second win since she broke her maiden at Monmouth two years ago so she's isn't our favorite to win this; nonetheless, she picked things up in her last two starts and she is one of two horses in the field that have actually won on turf; another exotics possibility.

Wine Burglar

First start for Brown was a good one and she could take a big step forward with a solid race behind her; she ran well two of her three starts over this course and the lightly-raced 4-year-old is out of a stakes-winning mare so she could have plenty of upside potential; first time with winners is never easy but Castellano keeps the faith and she looks like a win candidate in what appears to be a wide-open event.

Quick as a Bunny

She tried turf for the first time in her latest andshe ran a big race while earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure, which is the best last-race figure in the field; she has good tactical speed in a race they probably won't be going very fast early and it is easy to imagine her taking a big step forward in her second try on the lawn; barn is winning at a 40% clip at the meet; the half-sister to 24-time winner No Badge looks like the one to beat; the pick.

Sundae School

She is coming off three solid race at the distance and her third at this level in her latest was embellished when the second and fourth-place finishers came back to win; her Beyer Speed Figures are on the rise and she has some tactical speed so she should get a nice trip; contender.

Race 4

Dinner Time

Didn't do much after breaking from the fence in his debut here last week and now they'll move him to the green; sire gets just 3% winners from his first time surface runners and the dam's lone start came on dirt, but she dropped 6 multiple winners including G2 SP, multiple SW and 1.1 million earner Gourmet Dinner, who himself was winless from 6 turf tries, as well as 2 multiple surface winners; experience from this draw should only help him.

Hope Is Best

Adds the hood for the surface switch after his wide run got him nothing when unveiled at the Jersey shore late last month; his sire hits with 19% of his first time turfers and this guy is the first foal to race out of a dam whose 4 wins all came sprinting, though she was off the board in her lone grass try; barn doesn't do well moving them to the infield.

Security Risk

Phipps homebred is out of a champion dam who won 2 G1 main track stakes routes while banking 654K; she's kin to 4 foals, including 2 route winners, who were a combined 0 for 3 on the green; sire gets 10% first out winners overall and 12% first time surface winners; certainly has a right to be a runner.

Valuetempo

He holds an experience edge over these and has the edge of a couple of local sod tries under his belt; he hasn't had any type of impact, though, and his sibs are a combined 0 for 10 on the track and 0 for 2 on the green; his dam was also winless from 8 surface spins.

Granny's Kitten

Sire hits with 16% of his debut runners and 15% of his initial turf starters; dam was a 3 time route winner and without winning, hit the board in 3 of her 4 surface starts prior to dropping 2 turf winners including this guy's full sister, G1 SW turf router and 691K earner Kitten's Dumplings; barn fires right out of the box and a top pilot gets the call.

Escondido

Sire is 0 for 4 with his firsters and lost with his lone initial turf starter; SP dam was a limited sprint winner who lost all of her 6 turf starts; colt is kin to 3 sprint winners who won first time out including one turf winner and SW Cave's Valley who banked 367K; they paid 370K for him and the barn's first call pilot gets aboard.

Essence At Noon

Sire gets 10% first out winners and is 1 for 16 with his initial turf starters; 3 time sprint winning dam never tried the lawn and her lone foal to race was a limited sprint winner and 0 for 1 on the green; statebred tries open company here and the listed works are slow.

Magic Apple

Showed good speed in his Churchill Downs debut and held second money after running in a wide spot; his sire gets 11% winners from his initial turfers but the dam was winless from 2 turf starts prior to dropping a sprint winner who never tried the green; barn does boast some recent luck with its first time turfers; expect he'll be involved from the bell.

Ruby's Love

Sire hits with 13% of his newcomers and 10% of his initial turf starters; G3 SW dam banked 475K and won 12 races including 10 sprints but was 0 for 3 on the green; all 4 of his sibs were sprint winners but each who tried the green were 0 for 1 over it; barn boasts some recent success with this type and a top pilot gets aboard.

Cabo de Hornos

Outside drawn coly makes his debut for an outfit that hasn't done much of late right out of the box; dam was a limited turf winner and her lone foal to race was 0 for 1 on the green; works are slow and don't offer many clues as to his ability.

Special Invitation

MTO gets 9% first out winners from his offspring and the dam was winless from 7 starts prior to dropping minor SW and first out winner Cougarville who has won both starts; barn does ok with newcomers and the pedigree is strong for a wet track.

Reality

MTO went for more than 8 times his sire's stud fee in training earlier this year; sire is 1 for 10 with his newcomers and the multiple G2 SP, SW dam and banked 426K while taking 4 sprints, 1 of which came over a wet track; works aren't much but this barn has them ready to go first out.

Race 6

Vulnerable Favorite

WISDOM OF OZ (#8, 3-1) has multiple losses at this level and below, comes off an effort where she was eased and likes to pick up minor awards as her 18-1-2-5 record attests; all adds up to a toss. - Chuck Kuehhas

Race 6

Shelby Dean

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 18 starts for 27k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 8k; son of solid turf influence Artie Schiller might not mind getting a chance to see what he can do over turf, but this barn hasn't been getting the job done with recent turf starters.

Tree Fire

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was winless from four starts, including three turf starts; this colt is a 1/2 to Start Up (2-22, 72k, including 2 of 15 turf starts for 53k); he was entered for turf in his career debut, but obviously he needs to show much more in his first turf attempt to prove to be a threat.

Reaction Rate

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and dam won 6 of 45 starts for 106k, and she didn't make a turf start; not wild about what he's done in his first three starts, and his pedigree isn't exactly crying out for turf.

Seal Team Six

He had a very rough break from the gate in his career debut, and he was traveling nicely through the final furlong; don't care to see him entered with a 40k tag attached after that start, but he showed enough in his career debut to be given the look of a contender against these.

Paddington Express

Sire wins with approximately 17% of his first-time starters and with approximately 16% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from five turf starts, including 0-for-2 over turf; this is a demanding distance for a firster, but he's by a strong turf sire and like to see Bravo in for the ride.

Dynamon

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from one start, and she didn't make a turf start; this gelding is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes placed Cindy's Mom (2-13, 122k, including 0-for-1 over turf); he's another firster in here that is by a fine turf sire, and Prado sees fit to take the call.

Pilatus

He did everything but win when last seen, and the horse that ran him down that day, Cashmere Cat, is starting to look like a very nice turf horse; Cashmere Cat exited that event to win next out here on 6/19 going 1m over turf vs. starter alw. rivals with an 84 Beyer.

Imawarrior

His two starts over turf haven't been bad performances, but he is going to need to find a way to take his game to another level if he's planning on getting the better of the top contenders in this one.

Deimos

Horse Greeley has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this colt will need to produce a much improved performance in order to have a say in the outcome; maybe the drop in class can help, but looking toward others.

Knox

Finding it tough to give him the nod over Pilatus after watching the ninth race here on May 25, but it is worth noting that he was claimed out of that race by the barn of Chad Brown; this colt is a 1/2 to Daddy Loves Gold (2-9, 80k, including 2 of 8 turf starts for 78k); Castellano has won with 11 of 31 (35%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting; winner from latest won next out here on 6/19 going 1m over turf vs. starter alw. rivals with an 84 Beyer.

Race 7

Artic North

Has talent posting a 3-back field-best Beyer speed figure but exits a career-low number in his return to New York; has a new trainer/same owner after being outrun in a key race; the 9th and 11th-place finishers from last posted 88-66 Beyers in next-out BEL-40K-claiming and SUF-$12,500-claiming wins; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 89 in a next-out SA-optional-claiming win.

Joe Mooch

Was shockingly on the lead in last while today catches a field lacking defined pace; he is the one to catch; sire is 1-for-28 (4%) with 1st-turf starters; 6-for-29 dam (71K) did not race on grass; she produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race but none raced on grass.

Manacor (IRE)

Has been best on DEL grass racing for a super-fresh trainer off a DEL loss; the 2-back jump-race exacta looks better since the show finisher won next out in a PW-33K stakes; 2 BEL grass losses were both on the Inner Turf course; he gets the WIdener green for the 1st time today.

Countryman (GB)

The last time he was in for a claiming price it produced an exacta finish; great sign that the sizzling-Castellano rides for the 1st time winning 40% for the trainer since 2013; best races are when he makes one run after sitting midpack; will likely need to run back to his career-best Beyer 1st time in the USA to be a major player here.

Santa Elf

Main Track Only entry exits a best-last-race Beyer when defeating the runner-up fnisher who Beyered 80 in a next-out BEL-starter alw. win; was edged 3 back by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 70 in a next-out BEL-starter alw. victory.

Double Gold

Sire is 14-for-177 (8%) with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 6-for-13 grass dam (323K); 1 of 3 foals to race on North American grass is a winner (1-for-2 St Averil 42K turf); 3 prior claiming starts during career were all vs. much lesser company including latest; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 89 in a next-out BEL-allowance win.

Learn (IRE)

Benefits greatly as a speed type in a race void of much other gate speed; the 2-back winner repeated in a GP-Grade 3 stakes with a 100 Beyer; will have to show up with much better form than last a career-low Beyer following more than a 5-month layoff; lacked stamina in his 2 races traveling today's distance; view as a major pace presence.

Mop Head

Exits the 2nd lowest Beyer of his career; both wins were posted at shorter distances on synthetic surfaces; latest did not give the indication that stretching back out would be his best game; the 2-back winner repeated in a 58K stakes with a 92 speed figure; the 3-back winner repeated in a PID-250K stakes with a 94 Beyer.

Favor Factor

Allowance winner last summer at today's distance on SAR grass; exits his best Beyer since that win but hopes for a pace meltdown here and catches a race lacking gate speed; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 95 in a next-out BEL-OPC win.

Race 8

West Hills Giant

Chased the pace but gave way badly at this level here June 14; that was on turf, yes, but remember, 3 of his 4 wins have come on turf so the footing shouldn't have been an issue; then again, it was yielding and one of his other poorest efforts also came on yielding turf a couple years ago; it was also his first start of the year; at least there's no layoff this time and no panicky drop but this is no easy spot, he didn't show much spark June 14 and you have to go back quite a ways (Sept. 2012 at FL) to find his lone dirt win.

Night Maneuver

Comes here in good form; not only a game winner for $50K on AQU's inner Jan. 30 but Jacobson claimed him that day and it looks like a good move; horse was freshened, came back to be a sharp 2nd in an NY-bred stakes here May 2 (beaten just a head) and then 3rd in a tough open optional claimer at DEL May 28; back to NY and back in vs. state-breds with speed and versatility to get a good trip; even so, note he only beat Weekend Hideaway by a head in that May 2 outing so it's not as if he has some big edge here. over that foe - and there are other toughies to worry about as well.

Warrioroftheroses

Looked good whipping some nice overnight handicap foes at CT April 19; but considering he seemed to be in peak form, why then was he gone the next 2 months?; and that concern is elevated when you see his comeback run at DEL June 11 saw him duel and then hit the brakes hard; at least there's no layoff since and he's not offered for a tag and maybe with that run under his belt and the move in to face NY-breds he can get back on track...maybe.

Weekend Hideaway

Comes off a couple fine 3rds, first beaten just a neck in the Affirmed Success sprinting here May 2 and then in the Commentator going a mile here May 31 when beaten just a length; that Commentator run looks even better when you note the 1-2 finishers both came right back to win including winner Zivo, who took last Saturday's G2 Suburban; speed to be in it from the start; a bullet work here June 25 says he's doing well and this may actually be a better trip for him than the mile of the Commentator.

Amberjack

Could be scary; after being eased at GP on Jan. 1, 2013, he was gone 4 months and came back smokin' to win his next 3 including the Mike Lee here and NY Derby at FL, and was then a good 2nd in the Albany at SAR last Aug. 21; trouble is, he hasn't been since but he's sure worked well for his return, is 2 for 2 here and Hushion is quite capable off a long layoff like this.

I'm Stoked

3 of last 4 Beyers were 91, 96 and 97 so his A game fits; lone dull outing in that stretch came when he dueled and fizzled on AQU's inner March 22, but after 2 months off he came back smokin' to easily win a stakes at FL, earning that 97 fig; freshened again and he's shown he fire big off a layoff; awfully quick, too; that being said, there's other speed in here and some other tough proven NY-bred stakes-caliber runners so there remain hurdles.

Race 9

Live Longshot

OSTENTATIOUS ME (#2, 10-1): Makes first start since switched to turf last fall at Keeneland, where he had early trouble and put in a middle move before flattening out; entitled to improve off that 2-year-old grass Beyer with today’s class drop. --Dave Litfin

C'S Smart Strike

Chelokee 0 for 5 with first-time turfers; Grade 3 winning sire took half of 10 starts, banked nearly $400K, never turfed; dam won thrice in minior leagues, lost 5 times on grass; lone half bro lost thrice; off poorly in educational debut and note wraps were there; show horse in bow took a maiden $50K seller next out, 5th finisher beat maiden $25K foes next; note gap in published moves till 6/21; a setback?

Ostentatious Me

Realistically placed as he cost 40 grand; forced to steady in last and note place horse last time graduated here in a MSW, was 2nd a neck since in an N1X and 3rd beaten a length and a quarter in a $196K stakes in May; dam was unraced; 4 of 5 siblings won including Gorgeous Goose, who took a G3, earned $225K, was grass only; don't ignore.

Seldom Seen Slim

Don't be too harsh about last as he could not stand up in the off going; could see him pushing the issue briefly, just not so sure he'll be around when they hand out the hardware.

Sampson County

Gelding has had his chances and not thrilled with the beats vs. softer; even if you figure he hated the rail two back, his efforts for a tag leave much to be desired; gelding was 5 clear in last; would tread lightly.

Philip

Fusaichi Pegasus has hit with about 7% with first-time turfers after 368 starters; sire ran 2nd in only start at 2, took Kentucky Derby on way to near $2 million bankroll, never turfed; dam third in only out; all 4 siblings won, 2 tried grass to no avail, one banked almost $100K; they were all sprint only; brief factor?

Jigsaw

Maybe the drop under the purchase price solves this puzzle today; SW 4 for 8 dam earned over $100K, lost only start on grass; 5 of 6 siblings won; a couple won on grass including near $100K earner Gold Minister; looks to be coming up to a big race.

Tell Jose

Dead short in the debut, the drop seems like the right thing to do; dam lost only start; 5 of 6 sibs won; several won on grass including SW, 5 for 37 racer, double turf winner and near $350K earner Paris Vegas; should run much better here.

Azorian

Two regressions since the Pletcher debut; 9 for 31 dam took 3 stakes, adored grass, won almost $400K; 3 of 4 siblings won; one cashed on turf once; hard to pull the trigger after the last fiasco.

Corinthian Summer

Colt has been around the wire several times, is due to punch it on in; over 3 clear last time and he has been able to fire when placed anywhere so far; 2nd, 3rd, and 8th finishers in the GP finale graduated next out; he's burned some Benjamins; can't fault those that are a bit gun shy here.

Perfect Stormy

Entrymate in last ran second; colt has lost ground in the lane in every race except one; best Beyer by far came for this pilot; could be compromised by the slot today.