Belmont: Closer Looks for October 9, 2013

Race 2

Predicate

If you toss that turf route debacle here Sept. 13 you're then left with 3 decent dirt sprints; and well, she's back to dirt today so that has to help; nice to see no panicky drop and Hennig is having a fine meet (5 for first 18, 28%); worked twice since and she's reunited with Lezcano who was up for her best run (2nd Aug. 18); 2 of 3 sibs are winners including full-bro Thankfulness (2 wins, $90K).

Mei Ling

SAR debut was OK (plugged along well for 3rd) but with that under her beltd and blinkers added she moved forward very nicely in a race like this here Sept. 12, setting the pace and finishing 2nd; cost $500K so there likely are some expectations here, and off that good race you have to love that bullet :47B here Sept. 29.

One Night

Chased the pace in her debut in a race like this here Sept. 12 but faltered to be a well-beaten 4th (13 lengths); she ended up over 11 lengths behing today's foe Mei Ling, too, so she's got to make up quite a bit of ground there; good news is she can surely benefit from that experience; cost $340K and her 2 sibs are Endless Fancy (1 win, $56K) and Moneygrabber (2 wins, $31K).

Spanish Gold

Decent debut, though that won't make those who made her the 8-5 favorite feel any better; she pressed the pace in the SAR slop Sept. 1 before fading a bit to 3rd; Pletcher well known for being big first time out but he's got even better numbers 2nd time out (38%); 8 of 10 sibs to race are winners including Promenade Girl (8 wins, $678K, multipel SW including a G2, multiple G1 SP).

America

Debut wasn't much but hey, it was just her debut and you can always be forgiving about a first run; it also came routing on turf, and Mott isn't really one to hammer down on them for their first run; in other words, she figures fitter and tighter today; that being said, we still don't know if there's the requisite talent here, do we?; lone sib is Conversationalist (off board in 4 starts, $1K).

Red Constitution

No factor in first 2 starts but those also came on turf; being by Bernardini, a top dirt horse and dirt sire maybe the surface switch today can get her headed in the right direction; still, it's now a 3rd different jock in as many tries and not only did she now show much speed in those 2 turf tries but she hasn't flashed a lot of zip in her works, either. By Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Rakin' Gold

She's been in pretty good form lately but this group has a chance to prove to be a bit too tough for her and she was soundly defeated by today's rival Double the Energy in her latest outing; prefer to keep looking around in here.

Jitney

Multiple stakes placed filly has run well in back-to-back starts since being given another chance over turf and she looks like a decent fit at this level of competition; she did finish behind today's rival Double the Energy in her latest outing but maybe a faster and more contested early pace can help this miss.

Roses for Romney

Stakes placed the filly is capable of a pretty sharp performance on her best day and like the idea of her turning back in distance for this; she hails from a top barn and Castellano has won with 4 of 8 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Double the Energy

She's won eight of 18 career starts, including five of nine over turf, and have to respect the effort she showed up with in her latest outing at today's distance; a repeat of her latest effort makes her a threat right back.

Desert Bliss

Her lack of early speed is always a concern, and when seeing that she was 1-for-21 prior to her latest victory, perhaps back-to-back wins might be a lot to expect; she has been at her best over this turf course, but feel that a minor award might be the ceiling.

Elusive Rumour

One of two interesting options in here for Goichman and Pletcher with Castellano named to ride and this filly is a 1/2 to the dam of entrymate Roses for Romney; multiple stakes placed miss is an obvious player if she gets to go.

Ave's Halo

She's been in good form since being returned from a layoff in early August and her best effort places her squarely in the mix against these; however, it might be worth noting the presence of Velasquez aboard the other Rice-trained filly in here.

Yes It's Pink

Consistent performer has gotten the job done in three of nine career starts and today's seven-furong distance appears to suit her nicely; she belongs on the list of contenders and Lezcano has won with 17 of 71 (24%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Downtown Hottie

She's been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in her two most recent races but she's capable of getting herself into the mix against these on her best day; looking in another direction for the top spot, but feel that a spot underneath in the exotics is within reach.

Ornellia

She's only finished worse than third once from seven starts over the Belmont Park turf but she must bounce back from a performance that was well below par for her if she's going to have a say in the outcome in this spot.

Mah Jong Maddnes

She enters this race off of a sharp winning performance and like to see that she's performed well at today's seven-furlong distance in the past; if she brings her 'A' game to the table, she'll have a say in the outcome and she projects to get a favortable tracking trip while racing in the clear.

Kelli Got Frosty

Outside of Jitney, the dirt form in the main body of this race is questionable, and this can prove to be an ideal spot for this stakes winning miss to return to action if this race has to be moved to the main track; winner from latest won next out at Dmr on 8/17 going 1 1/8m over turf in a G1 with an 89 Beyer.

Keep Bustin

There's a chance that the early speed in the main body of this race will scratch if this event gets taken off the turf, and that would certainly be to the liking of this filly; she's been a consistent performer and she'll merit top contender status in this spot.

Haldane

This filly has a good deal of quality to her pedigree and she's eligible to be ready to give a decent account of herself while making her second start back from a layoff; this is the first call for Velasquez.

Hundred Acre Wood

She looks like she's going to have to hope that a number of these show up with less than their best in order to have a say in the outcome and she has been beaten by a few of today's rivals in her recent races. By Brian Pochman

Race 5

Dardanian

Pulpit about 10% with first-time turf runners in a 429-runner sample; sire won debut by over 7, took the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass, never turfed; dam won only start and it came on turf in a MSW at Suffolk with a 57 Beyer; both siblings won thrice including stakes winner and turf only over $160K earner Left a Message; gelding walked out of the gate when an ice cube on the tote and note it took him over 3 weeks to record a posted workout after the debut; the place and show finishers in the bow won at this level next out and the 10th finisher took a maiden $35K seller; must hurry.

Ay No Digas (GER)

Solid try marathoning in the debut and note he was 10 clear last time; who was he facing?; the winner of the debut has lost 5 times since but was 2nd beaten a neck in a $209K stakes in Germany on 9/22; Group 1 winning dam was turf only, banked nearly $350K; lone half sis lost 5 times; this guy's live.

Mad Props

Flatter about 9% with debuters in a 324-runner survey, about 4% with first-time turf runners in a 163-runner sample; SP sire didn't run at 2, took 4 of 6, was best long, never turfed; dam's lone win was a dirt sprint; the 2 sibs to race are a combined 0 for 10; could need experience.

Armature

Colt has a right to improve after even debut; dam won one dirt sprint; the 2 siblings were out of the money in 6 combined starts; expect much better result here.

Buddy's Tiz

Levine tinkers with blinkers after 4 dull efforts; he was boosted somewhat when the winner 3/16 took a $25K optional next out; lone sibling that won once took a dirt route; must pick it up.

Bandit Interceptor

Lawyer Ron 9 for 94 with debuters, 5 for 53 with first-time turfers; sire won thrice at 2, took multiple Grade 1s, banked over $2.7 million, lost 5 times on grass; dam was 0 for 11; 2 of 3 sibs won but neither on grass; drills ideally spaced.

Secret Bid

Street Cry about 11% with first-time turf runners in a 216-runner sample; sire won at 2, banked over $5 million, never turfed; monster dam took debut at 2, won 14 of 17, earned over $1.6 million, never turfed; 2 of 4 sibs won including Smuggler, who took multiple G1s, earned over $650K, never turfed; could flash more speed going long.

Bellamy Chief

Bellamy Road 7 for 78 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won the Wood, never turfed; dam took juvenile debut sprinting on dirt, lost next 4; all 3 sibs won in the minor leagues, the one that tried grass once was out of the money on turf; look for rider to try to steal it.

Our Emerald Forest (IRE)

Gelding has been consistent once he showed on this circuit; nearly 3 clear last time in a race he had to need; rates long look in all the slots.

Town Extension

Colt kind of runs the same race every time; the 6/8 winner took the Grade 2 Dwyer next out, was in the money in next 3 including the nose beat in the Travers; 7/21 place horse graduated at this level next out, when was 2nd a neck in an N1X; there are a couple of turf winners in the tree; bothered early in lone grass run; due.

Alysaro

Seldom like runners in this league after repeated beats for a tag but the show horse in last did graduate in a maiden $35K claimer last Friday with an 80 Beyer; barn rolling and Velasquez got a chance to figure him out.

Tony D

Wraps added off the layoff, try to get a good look at him on the track; he has a shot to mature with grace as kin to G1 winner and near $750K earner Composure; he cost $400K, debuted for $45K; what's up with that? By Brian Mulligan

Race 6

Trail Walker

Plugged along for 3rd for $35K here Sept. 19 but you have to like that Rice dove in to claim her and returns her for this type of price; shown speed and versatility and that was also her first local start, so she may do better now with that race under her belt.

Kaitlyns Cat

Won 2 of last 3 so she comes here in decent form; that Aug. 25 win at SAR came for $20K and you can see Martin does not risk her for a tag here; that win was also flattered (2 she bet that day came right back to win); all that being said, her lack of speed sometimes puts her behind the 8-ball tactically as she ends up playing catch-up; can she give these tougher gals a headstart and expect to reel them in?

Mama Zee

No factor at all in first try vs. winners at SAR Sept. 2, but remember not only was it her first try vs. winners but it came vs. some tough optional claimers AND in the mud; her other dull race also came on a wet track; however, in between was a dry-land run at SAR and she rallied well to win; Rodriguez offers her for a tag but she's no giveaway for this kind of price.

Guyana Princess

Veteran keeps on plugging along but her lack of speed has always been a real buggaboo as she routinely leaves herself with a lot of work to do, and her style means she's also at the mercy of pace and traffic; 2 for 14 last year but things haven't gone as well in 2013 (0 for 12); still, the way she plugs along can still make her a potential back-end exotics player, right?

Insolvent

Looked good wiring foes on turf here just a week ago; but don't assume she's a turf horse - after all, she broke her maiden in the slop last summer and has some good dry-land dirt races to boot; coming back in a week or less has been a good move for Jacobson (27%) and her speed should have her in the thick of it from the start.

Darling Bridezilla

Didn't run badly here Sept. 18 when 4th; in fact, that run looks better when you note it was her first start in 2 months and she stumbled early; very much like the fact there's no layoff since, that she shows up WITHOUT a tag attached and there's a big :47B bullet here Oct. 2 to indicate she's feeling pretty darn good; still, bulk of her work and success has come routing - we're sprinting today.

Currency Union

You can forgive that Sept. 1 outing as it came in the slop and she was off the board in her only other wet-track start so that may not be her favorite footing; proven on dry land including a nice win Aug. 14 at SAR; speed to be in it from the start and so long as that slop try vs. tougher didn't take something out of her she can be a player. By Michael Hammersly

Race 7

Manatee Bay

Barn hasn't had a lot of luck at the current stand or with its recent newcomers and this guy's easy worktab does contain a late summer gap in moves; filly is by a sire who gets 10% debut winners and about 9% first surface winners from his offspring and the unraced dam's lone foal to race was a turf winner.

Gentle Cat

Took some money first out on the local main track but after a troubled start she didn't do much running; sire gets just 6% winners from his first turfers and though both sibs are multiple sprint winners, the one to try the lawn was 0 for 1 over it; barn is going well here, but haven't had much recent success first over the footing or with second out runners.

Lemon Point

Drops in for a tag after backing out of it from a wide spot over the main track second time out; filly goes for an outfit that boasts excellent numbers with this type of class relief; sire gets 11% winners from his first time turfers and the SW dam did win first over this footing; both sibs are multiple sprint winners who never tried the green including 267K earner Star Harbour.

Holly's Sister

Statebred tries open company in her unveiling for an outfit that's winless with both its recent newcomers and those trying the lawn for the initial time; sire gets 10% winners from his overall firsters and is a 6% proposition with his initial turf starters; winless dam tried the green once before dropping a limited surface winner from 3 foals to race.

Asserted

Florida shipper makes her local debut for a tag while returning from this brief freshening for this new outfit; she's breezed well up here for her turf debut and her sire does get nearly 12% winners from his first time surface runners; limited sprint winning dam was off the board in her lone turf start and she dropped a multiple route winner as well as foals who were a combined 0 for 5 on the lawn.

Wonderfully Wild

Ran well when beaten chalk first out for a tag at Monmouth and hung in here until late in her longer local surface debut against MSWs; return to claimers should help as should the shorter trip and she's the only one in here with turf experience; one to beat.

Brown Mellisa

Sire has gotten off to a great start at stud and is 12 for 61 with his debut runners and 6 for 41 with his first turfers, but this gal went for a fraction of his fee at auction and the steady worktab doesn't offer a lot of clues; dam was winless from 5 main track sprint tries and though she dropped a few winners her foals were a combined 0 for 5 on the green; barn has been on a poor run with its newcomers.

L'S Escalator

Drew the fence first out in the Spa slop and did show a little bit of early interest before backing out of it against cheap claimers; she's been given some time off the try and she will get a top pilot for her surface debut; all 4 of her sibs to race are winners including SP, 114K earner Shirley Temper, but that gal was 0 for 2 on the green; barn does boast a recent big priced first time surface winner.

Lady Luciano

MTO looks to make her debut for an outfit that has done ok from its limited recent first out runners and she does boast a sharp local breeze earlier last month; sire is 4 for 29 with his newcomers and the dam was a 6 time sprint winner and 93K earner who dropped 2 sprint winners from 3 foals to race including one whose 2 wins both came over wet tracks.

Hangingwithsonny

MTO gets a new pilot after proving little match for the top 3 when dropped to this level in his local debut run; maybe last week's blowout drill helps improve this statebred's early interest, but this gal comes from a turf family and may be better the next time she steps over that footing.

Likeuasafriend

MTO was no match for the top 2 when in for a higher price first out here; Castellano takes the call on a filly who is bred to handle a wet track as 2 of her 3 sibs to try the off going won over it; expecting significant improvement if she gets to go here.

Gallant Lady

MTO boasts a slow but steady worktab for her unveiling for a low profile outfit that hasn't had any recent luck right out of the box; sire gets just 4% first out winners from his offspring and the unraced dam dropped 5 winners including minor SW and 84K earner Lady Contender who won 4 times sprinting. By Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Saint Vigeur

He has a solid set of works leading up to his first start since he finished second to Grade 1 Travers runner-up Moreno July 6 and we all know Brown can have them ready to roll coming off this kind of layoff - 28% the past five years with horses returning between 61-180 days; he has good tactical speed and should get a nice trip from just off what figures to be an honest and contested pace; the rail has also been a good place to be at the current meet; the pick.

Escapefromreality

He looked good winning his last two but he set slow and uncontested fractions in his win over state-breds in the $150K Albany at Saratoga and he isn't going to have that luxury here; he almost won the Grade 3 Withers from a stalking position so it would seem Ortiz has more than on option, though; no surprise that Castellano sticks with Saint Vigeur but this guy looks pretty live.

Tenango

His last two wins came over wet tracks so his chances would improve dramatically if it does rain; he's never gone this far before so you get the impression Jacobson thinks he's better going shorter distances; he did romp going one-mile in the mud here last May, however; he wasn't much of a threat to last year's 2-year-old champ in his latest so unless it comes up wet we're going to look in other directions.

Vegas No Show

He was all out to win his latest at Delaware and Smash and Grab came back to lose by a neck in a $50K stakes on the turf there in his next start; you could have claimed Smash and Grab a few starts ago so this would have to be a sterner test; he's also a bounce candidate after earning his career-best Beyer Speed Figure; he comes out of a live barn but others look more attractive.

Smooth Bert

He didn't want any part of being rated when he was stuck on the rail behind Escapefromreality in the Albany and Luzzi let him roll when he came back to win a $25K optional race for state-breds in his latest; the 96 Beyer Speed figure he earned is easily the best last-race figure in the field but he is going to have to deal with other speed drawn inside of him here and that could cost him late.

Midnight Taboo

He's had plenty of time to recover after posting his career-best Beyer Speed Figure in his latest and if you toss his race when he was overmatched in the Belmont and when he stumbled at the start two back he's been pretty reliable; he should get a nice trip from a stalking position and being lightly raced there could be some upside to him; No Velazquez today but Maragh has made the most of his limited opportunities riding for Pletcher; contention runs deep.

Favor Factor

Second from Brown will be trying dirt for the first time since he ran okay when he debuted in his only sprint at Saratoga last year; his dam's lone win came on dirt and the past five years Brown has a 30 percent strike rate with horses going from turf to dirt; he had an excuse in the Grade 3 Saranac in his latest and the only real knock is that Castellano opts to ride his stablemate. By Randy Goulding

Race 9

Princess Mara

Since claimed off the Ness barn her gate speed has been missing but in this field projects to make the lead then hopes to gain enough courage late to keep on going in deep stretch; both 2013 wins were right on the lead including a turf win at today's distance; is the one to catch.

Necessary Luxury

Winless in 12 races since June, 2012, taking a BEL-1M dirt allowance stalking the speed from 3rd; 3 of her 4 wins on BEL dirt; the lone turf win on FG 'good' turf at 1M in a 20K claimer; was no match for Satin Sheeks in her last turf attempt so have her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Satin Sheeks

32%-winning fresh trainer suggests the 66-day layoff following posting a career-best Beyer will be a plus; the 3-back show runner Beyered 75 in her next-out BEL alw. win; working forwardly for this and hopes to break a little sharper noting her lone win was a stalking trip from 3rd; she handled dirt well also.

Pure Amour

Projects to stalk the inside speed while trying to save as much ground as possible; she defeated the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 77 capturing a BEL-optional-claimer next out; since removing blinkers and switching to the Weaver barn her form has turned around in the right way.

The Lady Says Yes

Deep closer beat the 3-back show runner who Beyered 65 in her next-out AQU-MSW graduation; 31%-winning fresh trainer since 2012 adds to the appeal off the 75-day absence; she has always taken time off between starts but a good sign the win rider returns for this.

Sophie's Turn

Won a key race defeating the 5th and 8th-place finishers from last who Beyered 73-72 in next-out BEL-MSW wins; the debut winner and show finishers Beyered 82-71 in next-out SAR-MSW and allowance wins; wokeup with blinkers on now idle 55 days for the 1st start vs. winners here which is often any runner's toughest assignment.

Schillerette

Late runner leaves a high-percentage win trainer which is not a good angle; the show and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 77-74 in next-out BEL-optional-claiming wins; lone 2013 win occurred on dirt; will be taking a wait and see approach off the 105-day absence.

Beautiful Risk

Exits her lowest Beyer since February; is winless in 12 races scoring last rallying from 6th-11 lengths back February, 2012, in an AQU-10K dirt claimer at 1M and 70 yards; graduated on BEL 'good' Inner turf at today's distance April, 2011.

Strike Accord

Earned her diploma at shorter but owns her career-best Beyer at today's distance; 51 days off since rallying well noting however her lone win was sitting just off the speed in 3rd; posted a mild worktab off the bench so will be backing others; expect better form with a race under her belt off the bench.

Golden Cheetah

Graduated sitting just off the early speed but in her race with winners broke slowly then could not get to Satin Sheeks 66 days ago; her BEL-Inner Turf graduation was at today's distance but shocked the world that day at $64 and would be a major surprise again if she showed up with a huge effort today.

Centrina

Deep closer exits her lowest Beyer since September, 2012, racing at today's distance on the BEL Inner Turf; 0-for-16 jockey-trainer combo since 2012 does not help the cause while breaking outside is sure to lose a lot of ground; a tough call.

Let Me Be Nuts

Main Track Only entry; the 3-back runner-up finisher graduated in a SAR-MSW event next out with a 70 Beyer; 1st blinkers did the trick to graduate in latest off a 46-day absence but today is back in to face winners off just a 3-week break.

Chloe Bear

MTO produced a good-show finish 1st off the claim on dirt but it yielded her lowest Beyer since June; late runner graduated on AQU grass at today's distance and is winless on the main track so some concern if she is in fact better on dirt or turf; Princess Mara and Satin Sheeks appear to be the major players if this moved onto BEL dirt. By Art Gropper