Belmont: Closer Looks for October 4, 2013

Race 1

Street Prince

Tough to figure; in 5 starts he's run 2 real nice races; trouble is, the other 3 weren't pretty at all; at least comes off a good run over this track recently; certainly bred for this longer trip being by Street Sense (won G1 BC Juvenile, G1 Ky. Derby, G1 Travers); lone sib to race is Induce (3 wins, 2 routing, $90K).

Tiz Chris

Figures plenty scary; in his debut last Nov. 2 he ran 2nd to big winner and G1 SP Normandy Invasion; wasn't seen again until Aug. 24 at SAR when he came back with a strong 2nd - not only did he get a big Beyer (85) but he was well clear of 3rd (5 1/4 lengths) and 2 he beat that day came right back to win; cost $525K so there are expectations here; Pletcher adds blinks (16%) and colt is kin to Admiral Rocket (4 wins, $123K).

Dyker Beach

5 2nds in 10 tries shows you there's some talent here; he's also already proven he can route; son of 2-time HOY Curlin cost $200K at auction; been freshened since a nice 2nd at SAR Aug. 15 and he's proven on dry land and wet; worked nicely of late but his lack of speed in his past few starts has sorta put him behind the 8-ball tactically as he's left himself with some work to do turning for home; 3 of 5 sibs are winners including Featherbred (4 wins, $227K, SW, G1 SP) and Little Cliff (3 wins, $202K, G3 SP).

Sampson County

Added blinkers, returned to dirt at DEL Sept. 11 and voila!; up he jumped with a big effort to finish 2nd; have to love a bullet work since at FAI, too, as it shows he holds his edge; all that being said, his top Beyer, from that last race (67) leaves him a ways behind the major players here; then again, he showed much more speed with blinkers and could be he's ready to take a leap forward; 3 sibs to race have yet to win.

Speechmaker

Been knocking on the door for a while; toss that July 5 try (on turf) and you're left with 4 solid dirt routes; that being said, today's foe Dyker Beach beat him in 2 of those; does have some tactical speed and there are 2 very nice works since his 3rd as the 1-1 fave at MTH Sept. 2; nice to see Mr. Mott isn't giving up on him and this guy's best finish (2nd, beaten a neck), did come here in May.

Supreme Commander

Lack of speed has been an issue in first 2 starts, both in July; no reason to think turf was an issue last time - after all, his mommy was a wonderful multiple G1 SW on turf and surely dad gets plenty of turfers, too; freshened since and it's nice to see no drop by Shirreffs, with some good works in tow; Shirreffs has shown out West for years he's good off a freshening and maybe that helps here, but we still don't really know if that colt has the requisite talent, do we?; all 4 sibs are winners including Smart Sting (4 wins, $413K, G3 SW/SP in Canada).

Race 2

Revealing Moment

She looked good winning her race over $25K conditional claimers two back but she was claimed out of the race and she didn't run a jump in her first start for her new connections; hard to support her off what she showed us last time and she is going to have to deal with Talent N Passion again; passing.

Little Rocket

Half-sister to Grade 2 winnerLovely Lil is a head away from being perfect in non stakes races and she looked good winning a $35K optional race for state-breds in her latest; all of her wins have come in state-bred races but this doesn't appear to be that tough of a field for this level and she is right on top of her game; plus, she's verstatile and has enough speed to stay in range of Talent N Passion; the pick.

Talent N Passion

Makes her first start after being claimed by a trainer that is having a strong meet and has had recent success running back claimed horses the first time; looks like the one they'll have to catch and it is encouraing to see Castallano keep the faith; like the fact that she's been first or second in six of her nine starts at the distance; big shot.

Cape Cod Carol

Toss her race on the lawn and she's been pretty consistent; she is coming off another solid effort in her latest at this level and the horse that won the Union Ave. came back to win another Empire-bred stakes with an 81 Beyer Speed Figure; she got the best of Little Rocket when they met July 3 but Rocket didn't have the best trip and was coming off a layoff; a contender but she looks better underneath than on top.

Thats Our Princess

Another one that has done well running in conditional races but she couldn't keep up when she tried stakes company; this will be her first time racing on dirt but she has worked well over the dirt training track at Woodbine; best of 6 younger sibs is $248K stakes winner Vibank who won on dirt; tough call, but she could make some noise if she handles the surface switch.

Thicker Than Water

Second from Hushion has been away since she had a rough trip in a stakes race at Laurel last Nov. 24 and there is a good chance she'll need a race to be at her best; first start for Hushion and the past five years he has a respectable 15 percent strike rate with new shooters returning from a layoff of 180 days or more; her chances imporve if it comes up wet but her stablemate looks a lot more appealing.

Sandcastle

She took more than a year off after breaking her maiden in her only start last year and she showed good speed before not surprisingly tiring late when she came back in a $16K optional race at Delaware; goes from one good trainer to another after fading in a one-mile race on the turf at Monmout and it is possible she's ready for a peak effort in the third start of her comeback; nonetheless, there are too many concerns with a 5-year-old that has had a hard time making it to the races so we're going to pass.

Race 4

Pass the Tap

Toss that May 1 outing (7th, on turf, vs. tougher) and you're left with 3 nice dirt efforts; that Sept. 13 outing, in a spot like this, was encouraging as he set the pace and stayed on for 3rd, and that was his first start in over 4 months; worked well since; 9 of 12 sibs to race are winners including Swagger Jack (5 wins, $460K, won G1 Carter, G2/G3 SP) and Tap Dance (5 wins, $378K, G2 SW, G2/G3 SP).

Pegasus Tiger

Sire Read the Footnotes gets over 10% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 5 of 8 for $450K, had 2 G2 SWs, also a G3 SW; dam's only foal is Pegasus Diamond (3 wins, $168K); dam was off board in 4 starts; works don't exactly get the pulse racing but Englehart is strong first out (21%), real strong first out with maiden claimers (25%) and strong this meet (27%).

Snifter

It's pretty scary they paid $875K for this guy and off one so-so race and a subsequent 11-month hiatus they're now willing to part with him for $35K, less than 5% of what they paid for him; debut came in a real strong race at AQU last Nov. 2 but he hasn't been seen since; works of late are steady and of course Pletcher is strong off the bench but hey, they don't give anything away out here, do they?; 5 of 7 sibs to race are winners including Sweet Symphony (4 wins, $646K, won G1 Alabama, also G2 SP).

Catholic Cowboy

Dismiss the 4 tries vs. straight maidens and his 2 remaining starts, both for a tag, weren't bad at all; comes off a decent 4th for $50K at SAR Aug. 26 and now Zito drops him further, with a bullet work in tow no less and maybe the drop and change of venue is just what the Dr. ordered; all 5 sibs are winners including Threetimesawonder (13 wins, $299K) and Ode to Sami (5 wins, $224K, SP).

Monarch Maker

Tough to be too enthused over those first 2 outings; son of multiple G1 SW Empire Maker cost $170K at auction but after those 2 dull efforts they're now willing to part with him for $35K; in his defense, not only did both outings come vs. straight maidens, but they also sandwich a 8-month layoff; well, at least there's no layoff this time to go with the drop so maybe that will translate into an improved effort...maybe.

Distorted Dream

Has felt something no one else in here has - the feeling of being first under the wire; he actually 'won' here 13 months ago but was later DQ'd from purse money; next 2 races were quite sharp, too, including a big run here April 27, but then came 5 months off and a dull try here Sept. 13; at least there's not another layoff and he posted a bullet since, but now after that layoff and dull Sept. 13 run comes a class drop, which is a tad worrisome; at least reunited with Maragh who was up for his best outings; lone sib to race is Clarke Lane (1 wins, $33K, SP).

Rap d'Oro

Thought he might be getting things figured out last winter when 3rd at FG and then 2nd on AQU's inner; however, then came a couple months off and his 3 races since weren't very pretty; in his defense, those last 3 did come vs. straight maidens, 1 came on turf, 1 in the mud and all 3 were routes; well, now he drops and returns to a sprint, a move with which Hushion has had much success (24%) - though this guy's lone sprint, his debut, was pretty ugly; 5 of 6 sibs are winners including Quite Acceptable (6 wins, $104K, SW).

Race 5

Bebes Passion

From 17 starts, her best finish to date is a fifth, and she's yet to run a race that is fast enough to suggest that she can keep up with the top contenders in here; winner from latest won next out here on 9/27 going 1m over turf vs. 20k claimers with a 71 Beyer.

Bargaining Table

She split a couple of today's rivals in her latest outing and the winner from that race won next out here on 9/27 going 1m over turf vs. 20k claimers with a 71 Beyer; she looks like another who is going to need to find a way to show more in order to contend.

Myperfectvalentine

She didn't run poorly against 50k claimers routing over turf when sporting blinkers for the first time a few starts back, but she's hasn't posted a 1-2 finish through her first seven starts, and she's going to need her best performance to date to have a chance at the top spot.

Blue Z Gal

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his first-time starters and with approximately 8% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from 18 starts, and she didn't make a turf start; works appear to be on the slow side and this is a tough distance for a firster.

Despite Her Form

Obviously the long layoff is a concern, but like what this miss did in her first three starts, especially her turf debut when last seen; that was a much stronger field she faced in her latest start and this is a realistic assignment for her return to action.

East Coast Express

She looks like she's heading in the right direction and she beat a couple of these in her latest outing; however, she is going to need to be ready for better to get over on the top contenders in here; winner from latest won next out here on 9/27 going 1m over turf vs. 20k claimers with a 71 Beyer.

Tricky Game

She might be able to get herself involved in the running early on while wearing blinkers for the first time but she's going to need to be ready to produce a much sharper overall performance in order to contend.

Sapphire Blue

She lacks early speed and she might have a lot of ground to cover whes she turns for home, but she has every bit the look of a top contender while going out for a sharp turf barn and dropping to her lowest level yet; winner from latest won next out at Sar on 9/1 going 7f vs. 35k claimers with a 69 Beyer; Castellano has won with 7 of 22 (32%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Coralita

She disappointed as a pretty solid favorite in her latest outing and she was claimed away from the Anthony Dutrow barn that day; like the effort she showed up with two back, but still going to lean in another direction for the top spot.

Race 6

Wee Freudian

Back to dirt where most of his wins have come and he'll be making his first start after being claimed by Levine who the past five years has a 25 percent strike rate running back newly claimed horses; horse that won his last start on the main track came back to win a $62.5K optional race with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure at Saratoga July 20; looks like a major player.

Don Tito

Drops to a new low after not firing in his first start in almost a year; he did have a big excuse, though, as he was taken out of his game when he got bumped at the start and found himself last; he obviously has the talent to win this and he should move forward with a race behind him; Jacobson off to a slow start at the meet but that's probably going to change soon; the pick.

Flying Bird

He seems like a pretty dull horse right now and he didn't make a big impact when he dropped into a conditional claimer for this price in his latest; both of his wins came on the lawn and his career-best Beyer Speed figure on dirt isn't going to cut it if the logical contenders show up with close to their best stuff; passing.

Sokitumi Samurai

He shipped to Delaware after being claimed for $25K to run in a $32K claimer for nonwinners since April 26 and it isn't very encouraging that he never got involved and trailed the whole way; he ran a few decent races across town last spring but he really hasn't been a factor in his last five starts so we're going to pass.

Photon

He's been away since he finished third in a key $12.5 optional claimer at Finger Lakes June 25 and the past five years Englehart has a 30 percent strike rate with horses returning between 61-180 days; this guy hasn't fired coming off this type of layoff, though; he did run a big race the last time he was here and it is encouraging to see Castallano accept the call; consider for the exotics.

Sam Sparkle

He has been putting up decent numbers while running in optional claiming races and this is the first time he's been eligible to be claimed since he finished second in a $100K claimer in 2011; it has been quite a while since he's won a race, though, and that was a pretty dull race in his latest at Parx; he fits better here but considering how poorly he ran last time it may have taken them too long to take the plunge; prefer others.

Cactus City Road

Looks like the one they will be chasing and the last time he ran over this track he took them most of the way in a key race; the horse that beat him came back to win a $35K conditional claimer with an 83 Beyer Speed Figure; this guy packed it in pretty early in his latest at Parx and Ground Force appears to have enough speed to keep him honest; looking elsewhere.

Ground Force

That was a big effort in his latest at Saratoga and the horse that finished fifth came back to win a $25K optional race for state-breds with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure here Sept. 18; he should get a perfect trip from just off speed that doesn't figure to last and he has a right to move forward in his second start back following a short layoff; live barn adds to his appeal; contender.

Race 7

Rock Me Mama

Took zero betting money for the career debut with Johnny V riding then finished last after a wide trip; is eligible to move forward for a 37%-winning 2nd-start trainer who also has Tres Hermanas a 1ster going here; wish the worktab was snappier for this.

Radiant

Sire is 27-for-219 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 2-for-8 Grade 3-placed dam (113K) who did not race on grass; 1st time in a maiden claimer is a 20% win move from the trainer; did not fire as well 2nd-time out which is often a strong-improvement race.

Shy Society

Outran the 61-1 debut odds when finishing 4th middle moving before flattening out; wish the workout for this was more eye-catching; obviously has a chance to improve 2nd-time out and showed some sign of life in the unveiling; see some upside so hard to leave out.

Tres Hermanas

Sire is 4-for-38 with 1st-turf runners and 5-for-61 with 2-year-old 1st-time starters; is out of a stakes-winning dam (8-for-25, 166K) who did race on grass; she produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race including 1-for-10 Resume (19K) but neither foal raced on North American turf.

Is She Hot

Sire is 20-for-113 with 1st-turf starters; 6-71 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an 0-for-6 dam (5K) who went 0-for-1 on grass; she produced 1 winner from 4 other foals to race including 8-for-15 Twenty Twenty (305K); 1 foal to race on turf is 0-for-2.

Francesca's Fancy

Sire is 0-for-3 with 1st-grass starters; is out of a SW dam (7-for-27, 276K) who went 0-for-4 on turf; she produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race including 203K-earner Barbara's Beauty (11-for-42) who went 0-for-3 on turf.

Great Cross

Sire is 44-for-268 with 1st-turf runners; 34-for-198 with 2-year-old 1st-time starters; is out of a 3-for-22 dam (105K) who went 1-for-9 on grass (44K); the barn is 2-for-69 with debut runners since 2012.

Centennial Success

Sire is 0-for-9 with 1st-turf runners and 1-for-11 with 2-year-old debut starters; she is the 1st foal out of a 2-for-26 dam (128K) who went 0-for-2 on the grass; the barn is winless with their last 6 debut runners but the 27%-winning jockey-trainer combo adds to the appeal.

Camden Jane

Field-best Beyer speed figure in the debut makes her the one to beat especially after latest bullet-dirt workout; the added distance is a concern as she tired in the debut but may be able to clear off early today to play catch me if you can; 29%-winning BEL jockey-trainer combo adds to the appeal.

Race 8

Braided

She had the legit excuse of the off surface in the debut but was only a brief threat in last; that May race came back ultra live though as the 2nd, 4th and 6th finishers took MSW races next out and the winner repeated in an $80K stakes; dam won twice across the pond; several winners in the family including a double grass winner and a near $400K earner; don't ignore.

Cool Flame

Miss has trained well since solid effort in last; 1 for 2 dam did cash on grass; this is her first to race; slight improvement and she should be in the thick of it.

Masasi

More Than Ready about 15% with first-timers in a 145-horse study, about 16% with first-time turfers in a 185-runner study; sire won debut at 2, earned over a million, never turfed; stakes placed dam earned over $130K, never was on grass; 2 siblings won on grass and top kin Custom for Carlos took multiple G3s, banked nearly $500K; due to punch it in.

Sweet Potato

The cut back is logical the way she stopped in last; she has not been able to match her hillside Beyer at Anita; like the way she did close two back; can't fault those that give her another shot.

Candy Drawer

Candy Ride about 12% with debuters in a 365-runner study, about 10% with first-time turfers in a 218-runner sample; sire didn't race at 2, was unbeaten in 6 outs, banked $750K, won thrice on grass; dam was unraced; the half sis to win Harmonious took multiple G1s on grass, banked $625K; the blood sure is there.

Delany Road

See Masasi for sire stats; G3 placed dam earned nearly $300K, lost twice on grass; both siblings won multiple times, one tried grass to no avail; a move forward off the debut in the effort today would put her in the hunt.

Severine

Speightstown about 12% with first-time grass runners in a 240-starter grid; sire was champion sprinter of 2004, earned over $1.2 million, was never on turf; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; needs to rebound.

Miss Lauren Ann

Sharp Humor about 16% with debuters in a 217-runner study, about 7% with first-time turfers in a 111-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, won a G2, banked nearly $500K, never turfed; dam out of the money in only try; this is her first to race; $20K purchase may need softer.

Rockabye Lady

Rock Hard Ten about 13% with first-time turfers in a 190-runner sample; sire didn't run at 2, took soph debut at SA with a 101 Beyer, won multiple G1s, never turfed; SW dam banked $140K, was sprint only, lost only turf out; all 5 siblings won; one cashed on grass once, one banked nearly $100K; brings Western speed, look for rider to try to steal it.

Ballerina Belle

First Defence 2 for 27 with first-time turfers; sire won at 2, took the Grade 1 Forego, won only try on grass, banked nearly $600K; dam 0 for 8; this is her first to race; troubled in half of her race; due to break out.

Zamquick

Pomeroy about 15% with debuters in a 132-runner study, 2 for 51 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won a couple of G1s, banked almost $850K, won only turf start; dam was unraced; 2 of 3 sibs won, 2 tried grass to no avail; she sure looks fit enough.

Race 9

Lisvernane

Equipment issues kept her from contending in her local return but she was pretty solid going longer at the level upstate prior to the freshening; don't know that she's going to get much pace in front of her on the cut back, though, and her rival drawn next door does look to hold a tactical edge; price figures to be right to give her a look for a share.

Sally's Dream

Got her nose down to score after tracking a slow clip on the drop last time and now this statebred will step back up to the level of her 2 back defeat; inside draw should help her sit her preferred trip throughout in this heat and that figures to give her an advantage over her main foes; 3 time local winner looks to be the one to beat.

Divine Luck

Hood goes back on off an improved effort in her Spa finale and she's been working well over the local sod of late; she's another who figures to find a spot within striking range of the pacesetters in here and as she showed last time she's a solid fit at the level; contender.

My Marigold

Eight year old shipper hasn't been beaten much in any of her last handful of starts on the lawn in Pennsylvania and new she'll try the local allowance ranks; outfit is no stranger to the circuit and has won a race here both at the spring meeting and at this stand last year, but in this spot it looks as if this gal's ceiling may be a minor award.

Celtic Arch

Recent graduate needed the move to Jersey to get the job done and now she'll move back to this circuit to tackle winners; hasn't improved much from a figure standpoint after a handful of surface cracks and that's unusual for this outfit which keeps them going once they get them good; prefer to side against the repeat.

D' Oratory

Hood comes off a mare making her first start in over 14 moths for this new outfit; she didn't do much in her last couple of starts before hitting the bench last summer and her pedigree doesn't suggest she's going to love this footing as her sire is just 3 for 51 with his initial surface starters and the dam was 0 for 1 on the green prior to dropping a filly who was 0 for 2 over the stuff; just watching the return run.

Samiam

Lightly raced filly had little to offer late at the level upstate after breaking her maiden there in career start number 2; maybe she prefers a little give in the ground and the barn does boast solid numbers with runners given a little extra time between races; one to consider.

Justoneatheguys

Beat a cheap field of her peers when allowed a soft top here a few months ago, but found things quite a bit tougher from a tracking spot when stepped up to try this level at Saratoga; she'll get a new pilot while moving outside and though she may be able to secure a stalking trip from out here she'll still have to prove she's good enough to go with this type.

Corporate Culture

Outside drawn filly was beaten chalk last out in her first with winners at Monmouth and the winner of that heat returned to runaway with an overnight stake their, earning an 86 Beyer; each of her efforts over the local sod was solid and the barn fires with its fresh stock; with Lezcano getting aboard have to think she's set to fire today; contender.