Belmont: Closer Looks for October 3, 2013

Race 1

Sunset Ride

Coupled with Chief Dante; debut wasn't pretty at all but hey, it was just her debut so you can be forgiving; also had a far outside draw and then a miserable start; worked nicely since and goes outside to inside, with no panicky drop; daddy was a turf monster (won G1 BC Mile) and this gal is kin to Gaviola (8 wins, all on turf, $589K, multiple GSW including the G1 Garden City).

Status

Sire Big Brown is 10 for first 37 (27%) with debuting 2yos, 6 for first 40 (15%) first time turf, over 15% overall turf, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 7 of 8 for $3.6 million, won only turf start, won G1 Ky. Derby, G1 Preakness, G1 Florida Derby, G1 Haskell, was champion 3yo; dam's 1st foal; dam won 5 of 20 for $842K, all 5 wins on turf including G1 Garden City, a G2, also 2nd in G1 Queen Elizabeth, 3rd in G1 BC Juvenile Fillies; solid works for Brown (13% first out).

Fingers Crossed

Coupled with Aldara; sire Elusive Quality gets over 8% first time turf winners, over 13% overall turf winners; sire won 9 of 20 for $413K, was 2 for 4 on turf, winning 2 G3s; dam's 1st foal; dam won 1 of 12 for $61K, off board only turf try; some speed shown in her dirt sprint debut and she took lots of money (9-5) so somebody saw something they liked.

Touch the Star

Sire Tapit gets over 12% 2yo debut winners, over 8% first time turf winners, over 11% overall turf winners; sire won 3 of 6 for $557K, won G1 Wood, never tried turf; dam has 5 winners from 11 foals including Etoile Montante (7 wins, $659K, all on turf, G1 SW/SP in France, G2/G3 SW and G1 SP in U.S.); dam won 1 of 4 for $20K, never tried turf; plenty of works.

Crown Queen

Debut was encouraging; $1.6 million daughter of Smart Strike was slow into stride in her turf route bow at SAR Aug. 25 but finished nicely for 3rd; sire produced turf champ English Channel and 2-time HOY Curlin (who was 2nd in a G1 in his only turf try); oh, and this gal is kin to a mare you may know - Royal Delta (12 wins, $4.6 million, 2-time champion).

Monserrat

Sire Street Sense gets about 12% 2yo debut winners, over 15% first time turf winners, over 14% overall turf winners; sire won 6 of 13 for $4.3 million, won G1 BC Juvenile, was champion 2yo, won G1 Ky. Derby, G1 Travers, 2nd in G1 Preakness, never tried turf; unraced dam's only foal is Mr. Beauregard (0 for 8 for $10K, off board only turf try); plenty of works so she looks fit.

Aldara

Coupled with Fingers Crossed; sire Street Cry gets over 11% first time turf winners, over 15% overall turf winners; sire won 5 of 12 for $5.1 million, won G1 Foster, G1 Dubai World Cup, twice G1 SP, never tried turf; dam's 1st foal to race; dam won 4 of 18 for $202K, was SP, 3-0-0-1 on turf; some speed shown in first 2 starts though she hit the brakes pretty hard in each; can turf and a route provide the wake-up call?

Knacque

Sire More Than Ready gets about 14% first time turf winners and overall turf winners; sire won 7 of 17 for $1 million, was G1/G2 SW, never tried turf; dam has 2 winenrs from 5 foals including Whirling Thunder (6 wins, 4 on turf, $168K); dam had 1 3rd from 4 starts for $2K, never tried turf; some promise shown first time out; ran 2nd in debut to Sweet Whiskey, who's now a GSW.

Zloty

Encouraging debut routing on turf at SAR Aug. 18; had a tough outside post and banged the gate leaving, but she bided her time midpack, moved closer to threaten and while unable to sustain her bid kept on well for 3rd; worked plenty since and that race experience could be key.

Holabird

Sluggish start in turf sprint debut here a few weeks ago didn't help, but you had to like the way she kept to her task, passing a number of rivals for 3rd, even if she wasn't able to threaten the big winners; that was still an encouraging first outing; now gets more ground and surely a better start will help; Violette Jr. a strong 21% 2nd time out and filly's lone sib is Ampersand (3 wins, all on turf, $208K).

Chief Dante

Coupled with Sunset Ride; sire Indian Charlie gets about 11% first time turf winners, over 12% overall turf winners; sire won 4 of 5 for $616K, won G1 SA Derby, 3rd in G1 Ky. Derby, never tried turf; dam's only foal is Corinthian Leader (1 win, $9K, off board only turf try); dam off board only 2 starts; debut was very sluggish as she was never in the race; however, you can always forgive a debut run, she's been freshened, tries a new game, has worked nicely and there's no panicky drop, so it's far too early to give up on her. By Michael Hammersly

Race 2

Uncle Mitcho

He helped spice up the exotics when he rallied to finish second at this level in his latest and that makes two decent starts going seven furlongs so maybe this is his best distance; he also has some tactical speed so he should be able to stay withing striking range of what figures to be a moderate pace; contender.

Hooked Forever

It took him a while to break his maiden but he's only had two starts on the lawn and it appears he is a much-better horse on grass; his running style suggests the added distance will help but they won't be going as fast during the early stages as they were in his maiden win; it is never easy facing winners the first time and the horse he beat last time wasn't much of a factor in his next start; prefer others.

Slimshady

Nice win two back in Hooked Forever's first try on turf but he had a hard time keeping up in the same race Uncle Mitcho just missed in when he tried winners for the first time; he's another one that will need the speed to collapse and it just doesn't look like they'll be going all that fast up front; looking elsewhere.

Knock Quietly

5-year-old has had 40 kicks at the can and there is just a single win showing which took him quite a while to obtain; he's also just had one sprint in his career and he never really got involved going seven furlongs; even-paced runner will need to improve and it is hard to see that happening in this stage of his career; passing.

Mississippi Duel

4-year-old missed all of 2012 but after not being able to keep up with Amber Jack in a first-level allowance race for NY-breds in his first start back he won his next two going this distance on this course; Amber Jack came back to win two straight stakes races for Empire-breds; this guy looks like he should be able to set a moderate pace and could be gone if he breaks on top with Castellano aboard; the pick.

Breathaway

Not sure if he really wants to sprint but he has been showing decent speed going longer and he could get first crack at Mississppi Duel; like the fact that he has won from a stalking position so we'll assume Ortiz will try and get him to sit just off the lone speed; horse that beat him two back just missed in a $35K optional race here Sept. 14; contender.

Captain Gaughen

Not a bad effort in the NY Stallion Stakes and the horse that was moved up to first placed in the Grade 3 Gotham last year and has earned over $420K; he should find these easier and he ran well the only time he tried this distance in the Spectacular Bid; he's had a couple of sharp works since he ran and the only concern is that he was a vet scratch Sept. 21; nonetheless, he looks like a major player.

Professor Chaos

Lone win came in a $25K maiden claimer three back and he ran a pretty dull race when he jumped up to this level in his latest; he's another one that will need some help up front and unless Ortis gets carried away on Breathaway that isn't going to happen; passing. By Randy Goulding

Race 3

Princes On Thelake

So the question is, was that monster maiden win at MTH Sept. 21 a function of weak foes or is it, on the heels of a couple improved races at FL, a sign she's figured things out?; well, it's first time vs. winners so the water is a lot deeper; also, her previous work here wasn't very pretty, though in her defense, maybe she's a much better filly now than she was then...maybe.

Guyana Princess

Did some good work in 2012 (2 wins) but things haven't gone so well this year (12-0-1-3); did perk up some to be 3rd here Sept. 13 but heck, she wasn't really a threat at any point (beaten 7 3/4 lengths); lack of speed this year has been a real buggaboo as she's been leaving herself with a lot of work to do.

Sweet Maxine

After a so-so winter/early spring she's really picked it up in recent months; finished in the tri in her last 5, 2 of those being wins including a big tally over NY-breds here Sept. 8; must deal with open foes today but it's not like she's facing any monsters and with her speed she figures in the thick of it from the bell.

Bird House

Beat 'Maxine pretty darn easily at SAR Aug. 2 and then just missed in a fine try in mud there vs. open foes Sept. 2; 'Maxine came back to run 2 strogn races since so that flattered this gal; that being said, her prior work over this track wasn't any great shakes, but maybe the addition of blinkers (wore them for those last 2 good races at SAR) have made her a new filly; the Beyers would sure support that notion.

Quiet Sunshine

Set the pace routing for $20K here Sept. 13 and while unable to stay with big winner Sense of Woman (beaten 5 lengths) she stayed on decently for 2nd; Antonucci saw fit to claim her and it's nice to see she's brought back in a spot where they can't lose her via a claim; back to sprinting and it's a game she's handled before.

My Sparky

Continues her good form this year (3 for 7); toss that 6th on turf here May 2 and you're left with 6 other good-to-solid outings this year; has speed and versatility and it's most encouraging that off that last race she's come back with 2 nice works since including a bullet move at AQU Saturday. By Michael Hammersly

Race 5

Hummingbird Hill

Didn't get much pace in front of her when unveiled going long on the lawn first time out and this 575K yearling buy did return to work well for the move to footing over which she's bred to run well; dam was a 2 time main track sprint winner and she's dropped 4 foals who have also won at one turn including G2 SP, SW and 110K earner Fifth Avenue; with Castellano taking the call for an outfit that moves them forward with racing she figures to have a lot more to offer today.

Ultimate Shopper

Sharp debut outfit unveils this recently quick working gray whose sire gets 14% winners from his firsters; dam was winless from 6 spins prior to dropping one foal who won twice sprinting; with a top pilot getting aboard she figures to come out running from this inside slot and if she's as quick as she's appeared to be in the mornings could prove to be the pacesetter.

Sylvia T

Ran well against the grain of the local main track to get second money in her first start in 5 months and now she'll get an extra half panel; she should be better with the return try behind her and the barn has done well at the level stand, but don't know that she's going to get a lot of pace in front of her; consider.

Minx

Adds the hood for the cut back in her return from the summer off after earning a career best number when last seen here; boasts some solid drills for a barn that's had some recent luck with its returnees and there's not a lot of early lick in here so expect she'll be able to find a spot up top today; one to beat.

Forever Road

Tries dirt for the first time after tiring from the outside slot in her Saratoga turf finale; filly has shown a little bit of run on the green and she will lure a top pilot for this one; one of her 3 sibs to race is a main track sprint winner and the barn boasts some recent luck on the surface switch.

Winning Scoop

Barn's second runner in here has their first call pilot aboard for her return to the local main track over which she ran ok in the slop last fall; she has shown a little bit of early interest going long so maybe she's able to stay in tough with these early and her dam was a G3 SW main track router and 337K earner who dropped a couple of dirt winners including G3 SP, SW and 283K earner Coolwind, so maybe this is the footing over which she gets good; giving her the upset nod.

Wundahowigothere

Sire gets 20% winners with his debut runners and the dam was a local G1 SW and 459K earner who dropped a limited overseas winner from 2 foals to race; barn has had some luck at the stand and this gal's drills have been more steady of late.

Bettina Brugge

Outside drawn filly took a good step forward second out on upstate lawn but she was facing cheap claimers in that one and she'll tackle a better bunch in her initial main track spin; low percentage outfit adds Lasix to the package and she did breeze well on dirt last week for this; filly is kin to 3 main track winners including 2 who each banked 6 figures. By Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Leroy Jr.

4-year-old took a lot of support in both of his races on the lawn but didn't make much of an impact; dam was a stakes-winner on grass and her two best foals were multiple turf winners so it is interesting to see him try the main track; at least he's coming back with a recent race behind him and anything coming out of this barn deserves respect; Castellano also sticks with him over a very live-looking Native Singer; contender.

Animal Wrights

He figures to move forward with a race behind him this year but so far he hasn't been much of a threat in any of his races; the past five years Shuman has a 16 percent strike rate with horses going from turf to dirt but his only sibs to win won on the lawn and not on the main track; he has had excuses in a couple of races but others look more attractive.

Brass Pear

Not much happening here so far as he's been either waxed by double digits or eased; he is coming out of key race, does add Lasix, gets in light and goes for a new trainer; nonetheless, it is hard to make a case for him so we're going to move on.

Shot to Win

Have a feeling there is more here than what he showed when he took a lot of support but didn't fire in his debut in a key race; blinkers go on and he is out of a mare that won 10 sprints so there could be plenty of upside to him; barn having a solid meet and the past five years Schettino has an 11 percent strike rate with second-time starters; playable.

Native Singer

He hasn't been able to get it done as the chalk in his last three but this appears to be an easier spot then his latest where he tired in the same race Shot to Win exits; he ran a big race the last time he was here and anything close to the same type of performance puts him right there; his new trainer is having a solid meet and nobody is going to complain with Velazaquez taking over for Castellano; the pick.

D J's Hope

He just hasn't come close to repeating the big effort in his debut where he just missed at a huge price; he broke on top in his latest, was outrun early and was pretty much done when the winner brushed with him at the top of the stretch; second foal out of a stakes-winning mare could move forward in his second start back but others look more attractive.

Hidden Warrior

He has shown decent speed in both of his starts but not much stamina; he had been off for over 11 months in his latest, though, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him take a big step forward for Rice who has solid stats in the second after a layoff category; both younger sibs have stakes credentials and have won 15 races between them; contender.

Between the Lines

Debuts for Lostritto who since 2009 is 0/12 with first timers but is pretty hot at the current meet; sire is roughly 11 percent with first-time starters; 2 winning sibs from 4 to start and they both can run - $140K stakes-placed Imperial Zip and 2-year-old Finger Lakes stakes winner Vintage Tough; looks pretty live.

Jack's R Wild

He is the most experienced horse in the field with 18 starts but just a couple of times has he been able to work his way into the triactor; his lack of speed is an obvious concern and this will be the first time he's actually been in a sprint; he did run a better race in the mud in his latest but we're going to pass. By Randy Goulding

Race 8

Mr. William

Return to turf at SAR Aug. 30 did the trick as he prompted the pace and finished strongly to win going away; note Lewis claimed him July 22, risked him for a tag Aug. 30 but takes no such risk with him today; it's first time vs. winners but he's appareantly found his niche and there's a nice work Sept. 27 to encourage.

Slamarama

Remember, a year ago they trhought enough of him that off his debut win on turf at SAR they pitched himinto the G3 Bourbon at KEE; OK, so that didn't go so well and his form to this summer wasn't too inspiring, but then came a drop for $20K at SAR Aug. 24 and he ran much better when 2nd...and then did even better when an easy winner for $20K here Sept. 20; Toscano Jr. saw fit to claim him and you have to love that he more than doubles him in value; that speaks of confidence...though it also means facing tougher.

Spiral Stair

Came back fro a layoff to beat maidens nicely here May 17 but things haven't gone so well in 4 start since vs. winners; they even tried blinkers last time to see if that could turn him around but it didn't do much; at least that Aug. 29 try at SAR at this level wasn't bad, but it still means he needs to find a few lengths if he's to be in the thick of this.

Bluegrass Springs

Seemed to have things going along well when he won here June 30 and was then a nice 3rd at SAR Aug. 10; however, his last 2 didn't show the same spark; at least it's nice to see no panicky drop by Rice and this guy is reunited with Ortiz who was up for those aforemented 2 smart outings.

Velvet Cap

First turf try was in a super heat at SAR Aug. 17, a race which produced 4 next-out winners; trouble is, this guy faded to 9th that day so he may not deserve too many bonus points for exiting such a key heat; freshened since and it's nice to see no drop and that's he's not risked for a tag, particularly as Schosberg claimed him for $20K at SAR July 20; also nice to see J.R. take the call, but it's worth noting that after this faded in that Aug. 17 race he didn't post his next work until Sept. 21.

I'm Wide Awake

Flashed talent out West but his first 2 starts here in the East, both on the SAR sod, weren't much; in his defense, the July 25 run came vs. tougher and then on Aug. 11 he got away slowly and was wide; Jacobson saw fit to plunk down $50K to claim and as you well know he's strong off the claim, and it's nice he does not risk losing this guy to another claim; maybe the freshening and change of venue can get him back on track...maybe.

Bernie the Jet

Had things going along well this spring including a 2nd in a stakes here June 28; however, he show the same pizzazz in his last 2; in his defense, his July 25 run came in a stakes and his Aug. 26 outing also came vs. tougher so now he gets a drop in class; also reunited with Saez who was up for his 2 best races this year, his win here May 1 and that aforemented stakes 2nd here June 28.

Abra

Like Velvet Cap comes out of a very strong Aug. 17 race (produced 4 next-out winners); trouble is, like 'Cap, this guy was no factor in the lane, fading to 10th so he may not deserve all those bonus points; on the other hand, that was his first route - go back to his sprints and you see much better form including a big 2nd to the talented Palace on the big course here July 14; speed is his main weapon and while he couldn't carry it routing last time the distance cutback and freshening may be just what he needs to get back on track.

Apex

Sire Dynaformer, one of the great turf sires of the last decade or so, gets over 13% first time turf winners, over 14% overall turf winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 7 of 30 for $671K, was multiple G2 SW, 2 for 7 on turf and G3 SP on turf; dam's only other foal is Round (3rd in only start, $8K, no turf starts); dam won 1 of 4 for $30K, never tried turf; not only trying turf for the first time but facing winners for the first time, though he graduated nicely on dirt at SAR Aug. 21 and Brown saw fit to claim him for $40K and brings him back without a tag attached here.

Deadicated Deal

MTO may have turned the corner; after some mixed results he powered home to whip maidens Aug. 26; that being said, today's foe Apex, in the body of the race, beat him fairly easily in the mud Aug. 1 so even if this is played his way he's facing others who won't mind it wet.

Chapman

MTO is 2 for 3 on wet going and comes off a very nice 3rd in the slop at SAR Aug. 31; in fact, he pretty much runs on anything type of dirt and he's fired every time (in top-3 in all 7 starts, including being SP twice); ample tactical speed to be in a good spot from the start.

Thinking of Girls

MTO has won on wet going but you have to be a bit worried that he ran so poorly in the mud here Sept. 21; then again, not all mud is the same, and surely a sluggish start did not help him in that Sept. 21 as speed is his primary weapon; had worked very nicely the week prior to that; at least nice that Stoklosa claimed him for $20K Aug. 7, did not risk him for a tag in that aforementioned mud race here Sept. 21 and again does not risk him for a tag today. By Michael Hammersly

Race 9

Go Zone

Heatseeker has been a fine influence as a turf sire but this gelding is obviously going to need to be ready for a much sharper try at second asking with the addition of blinkers in order to contend; prefer to keep looking around in here.

I'm the Lucky One

Half-brother to stakes placed Blazen (8-45, 243k over turf) ran well in his career debut at Delaware Park to finish third and his connections are showing a good deal of confidence in him to ship him here for this; can't ignore.

That's a Kitten

Sire wins with approximately 17% of his first-time starters and with approximately 16% of his turf starters, and dam won once from 14 starts for 83k, including 0-for-2 over turf; this colt is a full to Gentleman's Kitten (3-5, 121k over turf); one of two Ramsey-owned colt's signed on in here as part of a wagering entry with Velazquez named to ride.

Scoria

Like to see the wagering support he's attracted in his first two starts and not going to put it past this barn to have him ready for better in his second turf attempt; runner up from latest won next out at Sar on 8/28 going 1 1/8m vs. MSW rivals with a 78 Beyer.

All Tied Up

Half-brother to stakes winner Probation Ready (3-12, 72k over turf) was much improved at second asking with the addition of blinkers and that level of performance looks like it can play well against these; one of two interesting looking options to consider in here for Pletcher.

Breakeven Analysis

This barn is one of the top turf outfits in the country, and looking at the trainer statistic line, this colt scores well in all of the race specific categories; he commands respect as a top contender and Castellano has won with 50 of 165 (30%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Sycamore Lane

This is an outfit that isn't usually geared up to win with a first-time starter, so it wouldn't be any surprise to see an improved performance out of this one today; that said, it would have been nice to have seen this one show a little bit more in his career debut, and he didn't attract much wagering support.

Nauset Beach

He finished behind one of today's key rivals in All Tied Up in his latest start, but that was a solid turf debut, and he has an experience edge over today's opponents; this colt is a 1/2 to Outstanding Henny (4-22, 93k over turf).

Cadaques

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his first-time starters and with approximately 10% of his turf starters, and dam won 4 of 15 starts for 79k, including 3 of 9 turf starts for 71k; this colt is a 1/2 to Cuaba (4-16, 208k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 42k).

Maybe My Way

Sire is 1-for-1 with his turf starters and he was a G3 winner while winning 11 of 25 starts for 586k, and he didn't make a turf start; dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; runner up from debut won next out at Mth on 9/15 going 1m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 68 Beyer.

Aunt Ruby's Kitten

Sire wins with approximately 17% of his first-time starters and with approximately 16% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from six starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this barn can have one ready to go long over turf at first asking and Velazquez has won with 78 of 273 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013. By Brian Pochman