Belmont: Closer Looks for October 25, 2013

Race 1

North Ocean

Some big-time pedigrees in this race; this guy is a son of top-class multiple G1 SW Street Cry out of champion mare Beautiful Pleasure, and this guy is kin to Dr. Pleasure (G1 SP); seemed on his way earlier this summer with 2 big wins and then a sharp '2nd' (DQ'd to 3rd); favored in a spot like this here Oct. 5 but ran evenly and while unable to threaten; longer trip may suit and Rudy adds blinkers, too (17%).

Mail

Cost $470K, is a son of top-class multiple G1 SW Medaglia d'Oro (sire of HOY Rachel Alexandra) out of Tap Dance (G2 SW/SP); looked super blasting maidens at MTH Aug. 16 when blinkers on fro the first time; hasn't been seen since, which is a bit disconcerting; after all, the light seemed to have gone on so why no action since?; good news is he's worked well of late for a trainer who's strong off the bench and this colt showed last time he can fire off this type of layoff; it is first time vs. winners, though, a huge step up in class,

Long River

By a HOY out of a champion older mare; looked like a potential Derby horse last fall/this winter; things didn't pan out but after nearly 8 months off he came back in a spot like this to be an excellent 2nd; not only was he beaten only narrowly (a neck) but he finished 5 1/2 lengths clear of the rest; looks back on track and there are 2 nice works since.

Street Thug

By champion 2yo and G1 Ky. Derby winner Street Sense and is kin to G3 SW Richwoman; came back after over 6 months to duel and run 3rd here Sept. 22; that wasn't a bad run at all considering the layoff and duel; that being said, today's foe Long River ran 2nd some 5-plus lengths ahead of him so he's got some work to do to cut into, negate or overcome that gap, particularly as 'River could improve 2nd time off the bench, too; does have speed and his career-top Beyer (87), which would put him in the mix, did come here, albeit in May 2012.

Indy's Illusion

By HOY A. P. Indy; off a game 2nd in an optional claimer at GP March 2 he got a shot at the G1 Florida Derby; OK, so those waters were far too deep; the worst part is that he not only ran poorly but was then gone 4 months and his 3 starts since, all in NY at about this level, haven't been too hot either; lack of speed recently also means he'll be giving some nice guys a headstart and first run.

Sliver and Onions

Son of G2 SW Tiz Wonderful looked good whipping maidens at SAR July 26; that sent him into a race like this there Aug. 17 as the favorite but after pressing the pace he gave way; freshened since and Hushion's been strong with this type of layoff (29%); he also adds blinkers, another strong move for him (27%); nice to see no panicky drop, too.

Scam

Son of Euro champ Giant's Causeway and 2-time G1 SW Smuggler may have turned the corner; 2 3rds to starts his career weren't bad, but then Shug added blinkers and wham!; he blasted maidens here and got a heady Beyer (90); even so, it's first time vs. winners today so it's a big step up; also, Castellano was up for his first 3 starts but ends up on Mail today instead (though he frequently rides first call for Mail's trainer Brown) so read into that what you will; snappy :47.60 work here Sunday is most encouraging.

Race 2

Woke Up Tired

Latest gate breeze is one of his best; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.06 million (offspring of Bernardini have won 11 percent of their debuts); the dam scored in 3 of 9 starts earning 209K; among the winning siblings is 58K earner Kettle River.

Sideways Vision

Both sprint efforts were respectable and he is bred to handle this extension; his sire won a G2 and 1.43 million overall; the dam won 1 of 12 and 31K; among the winning siblings is 12K earner August Gala.

Blue Chips Only

Tries blinkers after that ineffective first run; his sire won a G1 and 1.76 million while the dam won 3 of 25 and 136K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; strong workout pattern during the last six weeks to consider.

Deceived

Near identical performances thus far despite the different distance and surface; his sire won a G2 and 725K while the dam was without a tally in 7 attempts; winning siblings include G3 victor Naughty New Yorker, winner of 1.08 million.

Sioux

Gained much education from his maiden voyage and scheduled blinker addition can help him move forward; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 4.37 million; the dam went zero for 2; this is her only foal to compete.

Blue Shark

Deceptively good first outing when staying on well until the final yards; his sire won multiple G1s and 1.77 million; the dam did not score in 7 attempts; winning siblings include 64K earner Rock Elle Ten; playable.

Margin of Victory

Gained a bit of ground in his initial try at Finger Lakes; the sire won multiple G1s and 3.26 million while the dam was zero for 16 in her career; winning siblings include 174K earner Reversible Error; moderate local work regimen on view.

Groupthink

Odds-on both times when lacking racing luck; his sire won a G1 and 239K while the dam won 3 of 16 and 98K; among the winning siblings is 297K earner Game Token; obvious true contender but bound to be overbet once again.

Race 3

Corsage

She's run well in back-to-back starts since arriving in America, but she was beaten by today's rival Baffle Me in her latest start, and she's going to need to see that one take a step backward to have a chance at the top spot in here; on a positive note, she benefits from the services of Rosario again.

Anna Sophia

Her most recent start can be viewed as being one of her sharper performances and it is worth noting that was her first start for the Pletcher barn; however, she needs to show more to beat these and she was entered in a 62k OPC here on Thursday, and that does appear to be a much more comfortable spot for her.

Baffle Me

Multiple stakes winner certainly made it look easy in her latest start and that was with a rider switch to Castellano and a turn back in distance; she might be a little bit vulnerable to a fast and contested early pace, but she has to be regarded as a top contender; Castellano has won with 5 of 9 (56%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

My Jopia

Stakes winning miss appears to be on top of her game entering this race, but she was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in her latest start; she's going to need to find a way to dial up a career best effort to get the better of this field.

Assateague

She has a stakes win to her credit, and if she feels up to one of her better performances, she can make noise in this spot; she prefers to grab the early edge and take them as far as she can, but she's also shown the ability to tap the brakes a little bit early on if required.

Unhedged

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a stakes placed dam who won 3 of 36 starts for 105k, including 0-for-4 over turf; interesting to see her new connections go right to turf with her, but this isn't a soft spot for her first turf start, and this barn has been quiet in 2013.

Shush Up

Have to respect the impact her early speed can have on the way that this race shapes up but she's going to need to produce a performance that earns her a Beyer Speed Figure that is approximately 20 points higher than her previous best to have a shot in this spot.

Munnings Sister

She obviously needs to bounce back from a sub par performance, but she looks like a solid fit at this level of competition, and perhaps a sharp looking recent workout is a sign that she's ready for better this time around; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 10/19 going 7f in a 150k stakes with a 101 Beyer.

Royal Lahaina

Riccio-owned mare makes her first start for the barn of Todd Pletcher, and if she's geared up for a top try right off the bench, there isn't any reason why she can't have a say in the outcome; late running type should see enough early speed in front of her to give her an honest chance.

Roman Invader

Versatile mare has shown the ability to adapt to any early pace scenario, and if she can reproduce the effort she showed up with just two starts ago, she can prove to be a player in this spot; she'll be relieved to see that Princess of Sylmar and Royal Delta aren't waiting for her today.

Welcome Guest

Grade 3 stakes placed filly finished second of three in her latest start and she'll probably be ready for a sharper performance while making her third start back from a layoff and shipping back to a surface that she's run well over in the past.

Race 4

Locks of Gold

New rider is her 4th different jockey in as many races which is not a good-win angle but sheds weight to compete with her-lightest weight assignment ever; raced on the lead 2-back then broke mid-pack in latest but rallied well with a career-best Beyer; patient ride needed as she will be able to save every inch of ground for this; if fires back to last is an exotics possibility.

Estrange

Has been unable to fire back to her best Beyers which were posted in the first-2 career starts; she defeated only 4 runners combined in 3 races since the claim leaving her as an outsider today; the dirt workout for this was not enticing.

Lovely Bella

Finished last in her only other grass attempt; raced on the lead for the 1st time ever in last but then faded to finish last; her closest finish was when she broke 8th then passed a few 3-back chasing the show runner who graduated next out in an AQU-25K-maiden claimer with a 62 Beyer.

Rufus Ruth

Simply been a new runner in the 4 starts since blinkers were added; Improving Beyers including latest which represents another new career-best speed figure when stalking the pace then outfinishing everyone but the winner; cutting back to 6F which represents her shortest-distance test ever does not add to the appeal but is the one they all must hold off late in deep stretch.

Candy's Luck

Troubled in both far-back losses; her sire is 14-for-224 with 1st-turf starters; dam did not race on grass (1-for-12, 23K); neither of her 2 raced foals (0-for-2) raced on turf; not a good sign that she regressed her Beyer 2nd-time out when beating one runner home when that is usually an improvement start.

Hidden Music

The one to catch; exits the best finish of career with today's rider who yields 30%-BEL winners for the trainer since 2012; she has been unable to race back to her field-best Beyer from the March career debut at 2.5F longer than this but clearly there is talent here; the show runner from that race posted an 81 speed figure in her next-out BEL-MSW win; brief speed in latest fading behind these at longer on Widener Turf but gets the Inner green for the 1st time here.

Mini Muffin

Sire is 0-for-0 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an unraced dam; best Beyer and finish was in a July-key race taken off BEL grass to dirt where the winner and runner-up finishers Beyered 71-52 in next-out SAR-20K-claiming and 20K-maiden claiming wins; races 2nd time back off the 8-week absence so is eligible to improve; the 2-back winner is now 2-for-2 repeating in a BEL alw. with a 70 speed figure.

Tricky Tiffany

Her 2 other races on BEL Inner Turf were combined losses of more than 35 lengths but her best finish was on today's green however her best Beyer was off a 67-day layoff and is back in just 14 days for this; just hasn't done enough to consider her a major-player here.

Princessbellaoncal

Career-best Beyer 1 year ago on BEL-Inner turf and returns to her preferred surface for the 1st time since; good-gate speed on her resume and today gets in with her lightest-weight assignment ever; showed up with front wraps on in last which is not a good-win angle then regressed 2nd time off the bench; view as a major-pace presence.

Joda's Ten

MSW-to-maiden claiming angle is considered the biggest-class drop in racing; long layoff with so-so workouts and removes the blinkers today seeking answers after beating 1 runner home in 2 losses; the debut runner repeated in a SAR alw. with a 76 Beyer.

Myperfectvalentine

Main Track Only entry's last 2 dirt starts were both in-the-money finishes while catching a field lacking superstars; career-best Beyer was posted on BEL dirt at 1Mile; tired in recent losses including latest posting a career-low speed figure; high-percentage turf-to-dirt trainer adds to the appeal; dangerous if in.

Race 5

Mlle Margaux

Lack of speed a valid concern and can't be thrilled with the local slate; life and death for the last win in the slop but she has been super dull since; needs a total reversal of fortune.

Ephyra

First time for sale, you got to figure it will be an all out go; blinks added to equation, that's a good ploy for Dutrow, and wonder if they were on for the best of 24 bullet drill on the 9th?; the winner of last repeated in a $25K optional with a 79 Beyer; don't sell too short.

Bozique

Quick thought enough of her to take her back and she proved she fits in this league with the tough beat two back; considering the winner was by herself last time, the race was not all that bad; nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 7 of 13 but she has yet to win on turf; legit threat in all the slots.

Elusive Design

She got a feel of the course and was inching toward the winner late; not sure she was beating anybody in the debut as the place horse that day has lost 3 times since; 10th finisher in last took a $20K claimer next out and the place horse won for this very price; she was losing a little ground late in the other miler; she also may have to find a way to deal with Lemon Song among others.

Chickwalksintoabar

The shorter trip could be just what the good doctor ordered; only one poor effort and that came in the off going; miss was 5 clear and gets a more experieced pilot here; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Bricks and Clicks

Back to the original pilot but she must prove it on grass; she did graduate off the pine so she has that going for her; last race came back live as the show horse won at this level and the 6th and 7th finishers beat $20K claimers next out; should push the issue, not sure she will be around at the end.

Insolvent

Returns for the purchase price today; never like to see them give up clear leads like she did 3 back and she has burned the Benjamins in 2 of last 3; there is route success in the family, and would expect bug to be rolling out of there at the sound of the bell; you kind of get the feeling though if she is looked in the eye, she'll blink.

Flattermewithroses

Wonder if that yielding course win last year just knocked the starch out of her?; she just hasn't been the same since; crushed the last few times in this league, flattery has gotten her nowhere of late; passing.

Concealed

Two regressions now since the 62-1 shocker; she is basically out to prove that win was no fluke; not thrilled with the defeats vs. softer; apparently not much of a work horse, looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Wickapecko

These are her friends; like the fact she has natural speed but doesn't need the lead to win; she was protected 4 times for this barn but is offered for sale today; fit enough to drill a couple of times this month and this rider was up for the last win; look for huge effort today.

Lemon Song

The trip is well within her range; like the way she kept to the task and was getting to the winner in last; could see her sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip today; major player if the scratches are kind.

Assyria

At least she graduated off the vacation; another that shows for sale for the first time, the winner of the 2012 closer won three times since, the last in a $100K stakes here in June; she got away pushing the soft splits two back and still could not closet the deal; needs very best.

Race 8

Ol Donyo

She's a different horse since getting blinkers after that late-spring hiatus; looked good beating a nice bunch in the Zaftig here Sept. 20; this spot doesn't look that much tougher and while she moves to a longer trip she's certainly bred for it being by 2-time HOY Curlin; that big Zaftig win also says she likes it here.

Diva Spirit

They thought enough of her to try the G2 Delaware Oaks July 13 but things didn't go so well; was freshened and has come back strong, winning her next 2 there; Beyers weren't any great shakes so she'll need to improve on that front, and must do so in new surroundings; at least appears on the upswing so the necessary improvement on the Beyer scale is by no means out of reach; has some versatility, too.

Let Me Entertain U

They thought enough of her to try the G1 Acorn here in May; those waters proved too deep and it's worrisome now that after her SW on AQU's inner March 3 she's been no factor in 4 straight - that includes the Zaftig here Sept. 20 when she was 4th well behind a couple of today's foes; at least there's no panicky drop by Albertrani but a big turnaround is required if she's to have a say.

Sheer Drama

Looks as though the light has gone on; 2 nice outings to start her career and then a game maiden win at SAR and then a romping N1X win at LRL; J.R. takes the call and there are 2 solid FAI works since; ample tactical speed figures to have her in a good spot from the start and obviously the distance suits; still, her top Beyer (87) leaves her with some work to do, particularly when you glance to her right and see 'Toast just posted a 105 fig here last month; but hey, such a move forward ain't outta reach; after all, she's kin to champion sprinter Big Drama.

Wedding Toast

This 3yo filly class is already amazing and judging by that monster win here Sept. 11 this gal may be ready to take a swing at the big girls in her divison; maiden win at SAR was nice enough but that Sept. 11 win here was dazzling (105 Beyer); obviously handles this place and while her 2 wins came wire-to-wire note she showed passing ability in her debut, so don't assume she's a one-dimensional need-the-lead type; awfully scary again, though there is the worry that 105 Beyer was an aberration and if she goes back to her prior performance level then there's no margin for error.

Flash Forward

Kin to G1 SP Take the Ribbon showed ample ability with a romping win in the My Flag at SAR Aug. 28; came here for the Zaftig as the 7-10 favorite and ran on well for 2nd, though she couldn't handle Ol Donyo and must deal with her again; still, that makes for 3 straight good efforts and her Beyers have crept up, too; remember also she stumbled at the start of the Zaftig and that couldn't have helped.

Race 9

Iron Power

He has a strong turf pedigree and it was nice to see him show up with the level of performance that he did in his latest start after hinting at real ability the first time he raced over turf; this looks like a good spot to find out what he can do routing over turf; must consider.

Mia Poppy

Consistent performer has appeal in this spot after being reclaimed by Schettino from his latest start, and it's worth noting how well he ran when previously a member of this barn; third place finnisher from latest won next out here on 10/11 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with an 85 Beyer.

Gossip Column

Stone-cold closer ran well when surprising a field at nearly 50-1 two races back while making his first start back from a layoff, but he's going to need to see a number of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at something more than a minor award.

Dehere of the Cat

He wasn't involved in the running at any point of call in his turf debut in latest start and he's going to need to dial up a much sharper performance if he's planning on putting any pressure on the top contenders in this spot; willing to upgrade his chances if this race has to be moved to the main track.

Make a Decision

He shows up for a barn that has had a strong meeting and it looks like this relatively lightly raced colt is heading in the right direction as he gets ready to make his third start back from a layoff; note that he was favored when beaten by today's rival Gossip Column two races back.

Rocky F

When looking at what he did in his first few starts, it's tough to count him out of it in this spot, even if there is a long layoff in play; however, his two most recent races haven't been good performances, and those starts were after exiting the Bond barn; runner up from latest won next out at Aqu on 11/30 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with a 90 Beyer and has since become a stakes winner.

Powerful Instinct

He made it look easy while making his first start for this barn in his latest outing and this looks like a logical next step for him; this is one of the premier turf outfits in the country and Castellano has won with 13 of 39 (33%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Why Not Whiskey

Late running type usually shows up and gives it everything he has, and even though a case can be made for him being at his best racing over the Saratoga turf, it's still a good idea to respect him as a contender in this spot.

Westside Corral

Not sure what to make of the total lack of early speed he's shown since moving into this barn, but he's capable of showing up with a competitive performance against competition of this caliber on his best day; third place finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 10/11 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with an 85 Beyer.

Breathaway

Like what he's done in two of his last three starts while facing New York-bred competition, and even though the outside post can be tricky at this trip, he does have some early speed to help him clear some traffic soon after the start.

Status of Forces

He ran well against a solid field in his latest start, but if he draws in, he'll be moving from a favorable rail post to the outside; not counting him out of the mix, but prefer to limit him to a spot underneath in the exotics.

Karakorum Legend

Multiple stakes placed veteran has proven that he can be competitive in a spot like this and like to see that he has the ability to flash early speed as he'll need to employ it from a tough outside post if he draws in; he'll merit contender status if he gets to go; 2nd call for Saez.

East of Danzig

Although this barn hasn't been quite as hot at this meeting as they have been in the past, it's still a good idea to respect their ability to move one up after a claim, and this 5-year-old has basically been a model of consistency.

Gimme Credit

Multiple stakes winner has had a very nice 10-year-old season while recording three wins, and it's very interesting to see how often he's been claimed this year; obviously his best days are a thing of the past, but he loves this turf course, and not going to put it past him to show up with a competitive effort against these.

Ghostly Vision

There really isn't a lot of dirt form to consider in this race, so if this event has to be moved to the main track, this colt will have to be respected as a top contender; horses like Dehere of the Cat and Papa Tom figure to be his strongest challengers.

Papa Tom

Don't like to see what he's done in back-to-back starts since being returned from a layoff, but if he can find his way back to one of his better performances, he's perfectly capable of landing a solid share of the prize.

Race 10

Hummingbird Hill

Did't offer much first out on the local lawn and now she'll get back to the footing after sharpening her early lick sprinting on the main track behind a runaway winner; pricey yearling buy goes for an outfit that does move them up with racing and though none of her sibs won on the green she is kin to several multiple winners including G2 SP, SW and 110K earner Fifth Avenue so maybe she offers some improvement with another top pilot getting aboard.

Wundahowigothere

Bested the rest when in against a 98 Beyer earning debut winner first out on the main track; filly is by a sire who is 6 for 43 with his first time turfers and though the dam never tried the green she was a G1 SW router who dropped an overseas winners from 2 other foals to race; one to consider.

Lemon Lashes

Drew outside in her Keeneland debut back in the spring and showed some early interest before packing it on off that wide trip; she's returned to work quite well of late on the local dirt for her surface debut and her sire gets nearly 12% winners from his first time turfers; dam was a 4 time turf winner and 189K earner who dropped 2 multiple main track winners who were a combined 0 for 4 on the lawn.

Cloture

Ran ok for third behind one of these while sitting a wide trip in her first start in nearly 9 months; filly returned to breeze well here and certainly has a right to be better for an outfit that has done well of late second back from the break; note that this pilot hasn't been aboard a recent winner for them, however.

The Blonde Peque

Made a nice late run to get within a length of the winner here late last month and now she'll cut back a half panel; lightly raced filly has shown that she likes the green and her dam did win 5 times over the stuff; nice to see a top pilot take interest and she should again be coming in the lane, but she'd probably appreciate some pace in front of her.

Giant's Jewel

Beaten last out chalk has certainly had her share of chances and she'll get yet another new pilot for this one; maybe she was too forwardly placed from the outside slot in her local return last out and the slight cut back could well play into her favor; contender.

Lyrical Diva

Took a big step forward when moved to the lawn off the break and was again given a little time; gray makes her local course debut for a sharp outfit that does great work off the freshening and the circuit's top pilot takes the call so have to think she's ready for a big move forward.

Glenwood Pines

She wasn't beaten much while stepping back up to this level for her first crack off this barn's claim; the outfit hasn't had much luck moving them forward second off the freshening of late, but with just 4 starts under her belt it wouldn't be a surprise to see her improve some and get in the mix for a share of this one.

Minx

Tries turf for the first time after finishing up the track in her return from the summer break; she showed some ability in one turn dirt routes earlier in the year; sire gets 8% first surface winners from his offspring, but the dam was a turf winner and she dropped 2 surface winners including SW amd 160K earner Colonel Rutledge, so maybe this gal takes well to the new footing.

Davanti (IRE)

Import gets Lasix for the initial time in her return from 4 months on the shelf while debuting for an outfit that doesn't show up with many of this type; nice to see Velazquez take interest, but she didn't do much going long overseas in the spring and isn't working very quickly for this one; just watching her here.

Bitty Kitty

Came up empty after tracking the pacesetter while making her second start back from 10 months on the shelf; filly did improve on the figure scale in that one and maybe the shorter trip helps, but she's in need of a good step forward to pose a threat in this spot.

Gold Empire

Barn's second runner in here returns from nearly 9 months on the shelf for a barn that boasts excellent numbers with its fresh runners; she ran into a couple of next out winners when last sighted at Gulfstream and her local course effort was pretty sharp; giving her the nod to come back running and beat these home.

Candy Drawer

AE adds the hood after losing her best shot at the break as part of the favored coupling first time out a few weeks back; she'll start from a tough draw if she gets to go, but the barn boasts solid numbers second out and this gal is kin to 2 time G1 SW turf router and 625K earner Harmonious so she has a right to improve.

Despite Her Form

AE steps up in her first off the claim by this outfit; she's hit the board in each of her starts this far, but returns just a few weeks after coming back from a long break and may be set to take a step back if she draws into this spot.

Atlantic Dream

AE gets Velazquez if she finds a way to get in from here and she ran pretty big over the course last time; filly has had her share of chances, but if she runs back to that last one she will likely prove a handful today.

Pleasant Cat

She's mired on the AE list and not likely to go, but she wasn't far off the gal drawn just inside her here; outside post won't help her and it doesn't look like she really wants to win, but she could get up for a share.