Belmont: Closer Looks for October 24, 2013
Race 1
| Keep in Mind |
| She quit early in both attempts but can upgrade via inside path; her sire won 4 of 10 and 202K while the dam scored in 2 of 21 appearances earning 111K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate. |
| Lucky Seven |
| Did not have a smooth beginning in her debut and failed to make an impact; her sire won multiple G1s and 7.61 million; the dam won 5 of 48 and 161K; sib to 90K bankroller Rebel Raider. |
| Hangingwithsonny |
| Needs a straight and true break for a change; she descends to this modest level for the first time but recent workout activity is only modest; despite the class change, suggest a wait and see betting approach. |
| Check the Credit |
| Nowhere in that first run over the turf; her sire won the G2 Remsen and 450K; the mom won 2 of 25 and 133K; there are no winning siblings to mention; upstate workout pattern has shown some progression. |
| Gallant Lady |
| Newcomer was sired by G2 type Unbridled Energy who netted 282K and whose offspring have won 5 of 123 initial starts; the dam did not compete; among the winning siblings is 84K earner Lady Contender; average work tab on view. |
| Samurai's Honor |
| She held on fairly well in her last showing, her sole try for a tag; there were some soft early fractions in that contest and she may have to deal with a swifter tempo here; not a ton of known pace opposition helps her prospects. |
| Ginablu |
| Flashed brief early speed in her unveiling of a month ago; her sire won a G1 and 1.76 million; the dam won 3 of 15 and 98K; sib to 643K earner Logic Way; can upgrade suddenly with surface switch for a Hall of Fame trainer. |
| Kellyslittlesecret |
| Beginner was sired by 255K earner Unbridled Jet whose progeny have won 7 percent of their first attempts; the dam won 2 of 29 and 118K; sib to 38K earner Jazzbo; steady breeze pattern at the shore in preparation for this. |
| Livininthefastlane |
| Respectable comeback race turned in earlier this month; her undefeated sire won the G1 Carter and 480K; the dam was without a victory in 7 tries; there are no winning siblings to mention; worth some follow-up. |
| Michonne |
| Several angles in her favor today make her the lukewarm selection; her sire won multiple G1s and 915K while the dam won 13 of 48 and 236K; sib to 296K earner Halfway to Heaven; latest a.m. move was a vast improvement. |
| Pari Nath |
| Sheds the blinkers after coming up empty in her local debut; she tries fourth different rider in as many starts and outside of the workout on the morning of 10/10, there is not much to highlight; generous odds are assured. |
| Stormin Mary |
| Perhaps the addition of blinkers will help her focus as she has yet to show much enthusiasm; visits the claiming realm for the first time but still cannot be endorsed as the one to key on top; latest training track breeze was mild. |
| Bridget Moloney |
| Sired by G2 winner Pollard's Vision who captured 1.43 million (his descendants have won 14 out of 166 debuts); the dam won 1 of 10 attempts and 17K; this is her only foal to make it to the races. By Jim Kachulis |
Race 2
| Greek God |
| Half-brother to multiple stakes winner Hard Enough (4-16, 162k, including 3 of 10 turf starts for 132k) ran well when stretched out in distance for the first time at second asking, and it's not unreasonable to look for him to be ready for a sharper try while making his second start back from a layoff. |
| I'm the Lucky One |
| Like what he's done in his first two starts at today's distance and this colt is a 1/2 to stakes placed Blazen (8-45, 243k over turf); also, he's shown some versatility by running well from both on and off the early pace; contender. |
| Branded Hand |
| Not only does he merit respect based on the way that he performed in his first two starts routing over turf at Saratoga, but he goes out for a barn that usually improves them with age and experience, and note the addition of Lasix. |
| Sir J. J. |
| This colt has turf on both sides of his pedigree and his dam was a multiple stakes winner while winning 14 of 27 starts for 644k, including 3 of 8 turf starts for 136k; it would have been nice to have seen him show more in his debut, but not going to put it past this barn to have him ready for better this time around. |
| Pisco Bliss |
| Sire wins with approximately 17% of his first-time starters and with approximately 16% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from five starts, and all five of her starts were over turf; this barn can have one ready to go long over turf at first asking; one of two in here for the Brown barn. |
| Palace Gate |
| Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and stakes winning dam won 6 of 18 starts for 246k, including 3 of 12 turf starts for 150k; this colt is a full to G3 winner Excited (3-9, 242k over turf); the price tag is a question, but this one has pedigree and connections. |
| Meuser |
| Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam won 3 of 20 starts for 136k, including 2 of 11 turf starts for 83k; one of three signed on in here for Pletcher and Castellano sees fit to take the call. |
| Johnny Star |
| Sire wins with approximately 2% of his first-time starters and with approximately 6% of his turf starters, and dam won 3 of 15 starts for 61k, including 1 of 7 turf starts for 20k; tough to give this one the nod over some of the other firsters in here. |
| Billypaysthebills |
| Sire is 0-for-4 with his turf starters and dam was unraced; winner from debut won next out at Del on 10/5 going 6f vs. MSW rivals with a 59 Beyer; interesting to see this 75k purchase make his turf debut with Rosario aboard. |
| Pacemakestherace |
| Sire wins with approximately 15% of turf starters, but he's 1-for-16 (6%) with his starters trying turf for the first time, and dam won 2 of 14 starts for 14k, including 0-for-3 over turf; obviously a much improved performance is required in his turf debut if he's to threaten these. |
| Village Warrior |
| It's fair to question the dirt form that is lined up in the main body of this race, so if this event has to be moved to the main track, this runner will have to be viewed as being the one to deny; note the success Pletcher has with the MSW-to-MCL move. By Brian Pochman |
Race 4
| Howaboutwe |
| February foal was meant for turf earlier in his career but race came off the grass; sire gets 12 percent winners from his first-time turfers from a limited sample, and 13 percent winners overall on the grass; this one is a half-brother to the Grade 2-placed Manchurian High, a five-time winner on turf; must again face Carolinian. |
| A P Johnson |
| Filly facing colts got it right in her debut, when she stalked then overtook her competition for a clear win; now makes the move to a mile and her style might serve her well as she attempts to conquer more ground; this will be her first start against the boys. |
| Blue Shark |
| He's a maiden facing winners, but he's interesting on a couple of counts; for starters, he's the lone horse in the field with experience at a mile on turf; he also owns the field's best turf Beyer Figure; has natural speed and a sharp work since his bow; can share. |
| May Shares |
| Filly facing colts delivered as the favorite last time, when she was up for a nose win in a six-furlong race; might make good use of the added ground she picks up in this spot, which will be her first race against male rivals; also owns competitive Beyer Figures. |
| I Got Id |
| He was a sharp debut winner, when he overcame traffic and found a way to hit the wire first; closed from off the pace and given his running style he might like the added real estate he gets to work with in this spot; one of several who can share. |
| Sidearm |
| He exits a quick statebred stakes in which he finished fifth, one start after a maiden special weight win at Sar; moves to turf for the first time following a nice work over the local lawn; sire shows no turf winners from a very limited sample of starters on the grass; turf work makes him interesting. |
| Carolinian |
| February foal looks like the one these will have to catch; he has used his good speed to wire his rivals in each of his last two starts, with one of those wins coming on turf, at a distance similar to this one; he's a half-brother to stakes winner Smuggler's Hold ($114K); choice. |
| Deceived |
| He's a maiden facing winners, and is entered for the main track only; was second to a quality winner last out in Carolinian, who after their meeting won a first-level allowance for statebreds and looks like the one to beat in this spot; this one is a half-brother to multiple stakes winner and millionaire Naughty New Yorker. By Mary Rampellini |
Race 5
| Aliana |
| Debut was most encouraging; got away slowly to be well back early, made a wide run turning for home and finished up nicely to be 2nd; that being said, she was no match for a runaway winner (beaten 6 3/4 lengths) but it was still a very nice first run for Mr. Mott whose inexperienced runners seem to do better after they've had a race; 2 sibs are Toro Grande (7 wins, $137K) and American Darling (2 wins, $33K). |
| Fly Solo |
| 5 in-the-money finishes in 10 starts so she's shown some talent; that being said, she raced for a tag in her last 2, on turf as well, and is now asked to move up to face straight maidens and move to dirt; at least ran well on dirt at CT and RP so the surface isn't the issue - the class level seems more a question mark; 1 of 2 sibs to race is winner Sam Sharp (2 wins, $71K, in England). |
| Masasi |
| Bred for turf to be sure, but she didn't really punch it in on the sod here Oct. 4; in her defense, that was also her first start in over 6 months; may well benefit from that, has worked well since and she showed before dirt is no problem at all; 5 of 6 sibs are winners including sizzler Custom for Carlos (6 wins, $483K, 3-time G3 SW, G2/G3 SP), Cat in the Tree (5 wins, $113K) and Mimi's Bling (3 wins, $121K, SW, SP). |
| Katie's Garden |
| Sire Elusive Quality gets over 15% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 9 of 20 for $413K, had 2 G3 SWs, 2-time G2 SP, sired G1 Ky. Derby/G1 Preakness winner and champion 3yo Smarty Jones; dam's only foal to race is Honey Ride (3rd in only start, $9K); dam won 4 of 10 for $439K, won G1 Santa Margarita, was G2 SW, 2-time G2 SP in SoCal; plenty of solid, steady works for a trainer who can fire first out. |
| Gold D' Medaglia |
| Sire Medaglia d'Oro gets about 10% debut winners; sire won 8 of 17 for $5.7 million, won G1 Travers, G1 Whitney, G1 Donn, mutliple G2s, 2nd in G1 BC Classic (twice), G1 Belmont, G1 Wood, G1 Pacific Classic, G1 Dubai World Cup; sired HOY Rachel Alexandra; dam has 2 winners from 3 foals to race, Close to the Edge (7 wins, $295K, 2 SWs, SP) and Jess N Nat (5 wins, $48K); dam won 1 of 5 for $14K; been working along well for Brown (13% first out). |
| Iratinelexburance |
| Flashed talent over a year ago with 2 3rds to start her career but things haven't gone well since in 3 starts; not only hasn't threatened but there were gaps between all 3; no gap today, which is nice, but she's also up in class after failing against maiden claimers in her last 2. By Michael Hammersly |
Race 6
| Noon Time Shower |
| Nicely spotted here if breaking cleanly from the rail; she has earned decent checks in added money events and the latest workout is her best yet; dangerous if establishing a daylight advantage in opening strides. |
| Willow U |
| Commendable maiden voyage at Calder considering the trouble involved; her sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million; the dam was zero for 8; winning siblings include 146K earner Russian Sage; must make transition to the 1-turn setting. |
| Shades of Indygo |
| Far back in that first run when breaking slowest of all; her sire won a G3 and 444K while the dam won 1 of 10 and 75K; among the winning sibs is 175K earner Lenders Way; moving off the fence now can help. |
| Please No Emails |
| Stayed within range for a while in her grass debut; her sire won multiple G2s on the main oval earning 920K; the dam was zero for 4; sib to 35K earner Atlantic Beauty; nice blowout only 4 days ago. |
| Sheepish |
| Beginner hails from multiple G2 victor Repent who notched 1.25 million and whose progeny have won 21 out of 327 debuts; the dam was 8 for 42 earning 397K; sib to 29K earner Zeddemore. |
| Fire Ship |
| Steady breeze regimen for this daughter of Colonel John who won a G1 and 1.77 million (his descendants have scored in 3 of 21 debuts); the dam involved won 3 of 13 and 100K; sib to 122K earner Do I Amuse You. |
| Fee and Sugar |
| Exits an above average race where she could not threaten; her sire won multiple G2s and 626K while the dam never competed; this is her sole foal to make it to the races; has breezed moderately since that first run. |
| Margaret Ownzit |
| See Willow U, above, for information about the same sire; the dam won 2 of 6 and 72K; winning sibs include 26K earner Havana Sunrise; exacta recommendation as she should be on or near a softer pace today than in the last venture. |
| Mlle. Minuit |
| Took a while to get into gear in both attempts over the green; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and 2.69 million; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 77K earner Mlle Margaux; can upgrade on surface switch. |
| Talk to Me |
| Mild rallier draws a cozy post here and the trainer has established a fine record with the turf-to-dirt angle; the filly should be able to middle move against this crew and switches to a top-notch rider; respect her money chances. |
| Holly's Sister |
| Came up empty in her unveiling over the turf; her sire won a G1 and 2.19 million; the dam went zero for 9 in her career; among the winning siblings is 63K earner Holly Holly; most recent a.m. breeze was ordinary. By Randy Goulding |
Race 7
| Noon Time Shower |
| Nicely spotted here if breaking cleanly from the rail; she has earned decent checks in added money events and the latest workout is her best yet; dangerous if establishing a daylight advantage in opening strides. |
| Willow U |
| Commendable maiden voyage at Calder considering the trouble involved; her sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million; the dam was zero for 8; winning siblings include 146K earner Russian Sage; must make transition to the 1-turn setting. |
| Shades of Indygo |
| Far back in that first run when breaking slowest of all; her sire won a G3 and 444K while the dam won 1 of 10 and 75K; among the winning sibs is 175K earner Lenders Way; moving off the fence now can help. |
| Please No Emails |
| Stayed within range for a while in her grass debut; her sire won multiple G2s on the main oval earning 920K; the dam was zero for 4; sib to 35K earner Atlantic Beauty; nice blowout only 4 days ago. |
| Sheepish |
| Beginner hails from multiple G2 victor Repent who notched 1.25 million and whose progeny have won 21 out of 327 debuts; the dam was 8 for 42 earning 397K; sib to 29K earner Zeddemore. |
| Fire Ship |
| Steady breeze regimen for this daughter of Colonel John who won a G1 and 1.77 million (his descendants have scored in 3 of 21 debuts); the dam involved won 3 of 13 and 100K; sib to 122K earner Do I Amuse You. |
| Fee and Sugar |
| Exits an above average race where she could not threaten; her sire won multiple G2s and 626K while the dam never competed; this is her sole foal to make it to the races; has breezed moderately since that first run. |
| Margaret Ownzit |
| See Willow U, above, for information about the same sire; the dam won 2 of 6 and 72K; winning sibs include 26K earner Havana Sunrise; exacta recommendation as she should be on or near a softer pace today than in the last venture. |
| Mlle. Minuit |
| Took a while to get into gear in both attempts over the green; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and 2.69 million; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 77K earner Mlle Margaux; can upgrade on surface switch. |
| Talk to Me |
| Mild rallier draws a cozy post here and the trainer has established a fine record with the turf-to-dirt angle; the filly should be able to middle move against this crew and switches to a top-notch rider; respect her money chances. |
| Holly's Sister |
| Came up empty in her unveiling over the turf; her sire won a G1 and 2.19 million; the dam went zero for 9 in her career; among the winning siblings is 63K earner Holly Holly; most recent a.m. breeze was ordinary. By Jim Kachulis |
Race 8
| Lapantalones Fance |
| Suffolk shipper steps up while seeking her third straight sod score; filly has some positional foot and maybe the move to the fence allows her to work out a trip, but she's going to need to take a pretty big step forward on the figure scale to have a say in the outcome. |
| Scenario Analysis |
| Fresh gray has hit the board in each of her 4 local surface spins and was given a little time after running into a couple of next out winners as the chalk at Monmouth; just missed despite the negative pace scenario the last time she stepped on this course and things may be a little bit better for her in that regard today; with Lezcano getting back aboard and some solid fresh efforts under her belt she's a contender. |
| Magma (GB) |
| Import gets back in with her own sex after necking the boys in her last start in England this past spring; she did take a good step forward in shades and she'll get Lasix for the initial time in her return to the races, but note that each of her 2 wins came on synthetic footing and she's yet to as much as hit the board on the green. |
| Coarsegold |
| Sophomore tries older for the initial time after failing to factor against a stakes field of her peers at Saratoga; filly has yet to get back to the big figure 'score' on the Gulfstream lawn earlier in the year and though she lures a top pilot, may be limited to contending for a minor award in this spot. |
| Promise Me More |
| Filly was in over her head in Parx's G1 Cotillion last month but wasn't bad in her prior turf spin upstate; she will try older for the initial time in here but she did keep some good company earlier in the year and has shown an affinity for the green; price may warrant her a look. |
| P J's Superego |
| Main track sprinter brings plenty of speed to the table in her turf debut; sire gets 13% first surface winners from his offspring and though the female family in her pedigree is all sprint, the dam won on the green and dropped a 3 time turf winner so it wouldn't be a surprise if this Jersey bred were to take to the new surface; one to run down. |
| Native Bombshell |
| Wide trip did her in on a speed favoring upstate turf course when last sighted; she'll tackle older for the first time today but the barn does a nice job with its fresh runners and Castellano returns on a filly who was pretty sharp in breaking her maiden over yielding ground in her initial turf start; expecting this lightly raced gal will prove a legitimate threat today. |
| Anna Sophia |
| Just missed over the course in her return from 5 months on the shelf and has had more than a month to get over the effort; thought this trip might be a bit much for her, but she showed in that last one that she can handle it and the Pletcher barn boasts excellent numbers second bakc from the break; must consider. |
| Floral Romance |
| Hasn't been able to escape the N2X condition after coming out with 2 sod scores to begin her career last year; beaten chalk was caught in a wide spot last time and maybe she'd be better if they just took her back to make one run like they tried upstate 2 starts back; giving her the nod to run them down late. |
| Clarinda |
| Got caught in a tough spot and ran out of ground when returned to the local sod here last month; filly showed solid tactical foot on dirt at Saratoga 2 back as well as earlier in the year so maybe if she's hustled a bit early in this one she can secure a clean trip and offer much more at a price; consider. |
| Cosmic Energy |
| Outside drawn filly ships in off the near miss at Delaware a few weeks ago; local sod winner will have a tough time making the top from out here and that's usually what she needs to offer her best; prefer to look elsewhere for the winner. |
| Roman Invader |
| MTO was in a little too tough when finishing well behind the 2 best females in the country in the local G1 Beldame last month; mare does have speed and it should be on display if this gets rained off; she's run pretty well in each of her wet track spins and she'll be catching softer here than she did in the 2 back gate to wire score; they'll have her to run down if this gets moved to the dirt. |
| Sheer Drama |
| Lightly raced MTO takes the next step up the class ladder after running away from an overmatched bunch in the Laurel allowance score; note that each of her 2 scores did come at 2 turns and she'll face a new configuration here, but she's on the improve and certainly has a right to be much better than she was the last time she tried the local main track; dangerous sophomore if the rains come. By Steve Grabowski |
Race 9
| Tenango |
| Figures to be part of the pace mix likely chasing Dysprosium for the lead; his sire is 24-for-255 with 1st-turf starters; dam won 2-of-5 (55K) but did not race on grass; her only other foal to race 2-0-0-0 Islomania who did not race on turf; the wet-main track record is sensational including his 3-back field-best Beyer speed figure so would not mind this moved onto less-than-fast dirt. |
| Chamois |
| Stakes winner racing with 1st blinkers posting a co-career-best Beyer attached scoring on firm turf for the 1st time in career; was expected to win latest at 2-5 odds and narrowly did so; the 3-back loss to Joha is a big concern with a negative 3-pound weight swing for this; the winner and show finishers 3-back posted 89-76 Beyer speed figures in next-out SAR-Grade 3 and 100K stakes wins. |
| Calm Pacific |
| Perfect with a major-class test off the 46-day absence; he won 2nd-time out off a 35-day break when showing better gate speed but today the pace is likely to be a lot quicker with Dysprosium going here; wish the worktab stood out more for this but clearly there is plenty of talent here. |
| North Slope |
| Positive 2-pond weight swing off the 3-back key-race loss to Joha when last seen at today's distance; that race was on less-than-firm turf which has not been his best surface liking it firm including a May win on BEL-Widener grass over the runner-up and show finishers next-out 87-81 Beyer BEL-alw. and optional-claiming winners. |
| Chief Exchanger |
| Sire is 31-for-269 with 1st-turf starters; dam won 4-of-19 (71K) but did not race on grass; her only other foal to race is SW Rod's FIve Star (7-for-14, 323K) who did not race on turf; is also entered KEE 4 today a seemingly easier spot in a 7F-synthetic surface optional claimer. |
| Joha |
| Class relief off the graded losses; October, 2012, was his last win which occurred on a synthetic surface while today is in with his highest-weight assignement of 2013; exits a career-best Beyer when overmatched; was outfinished in a G1 while hasn't been able to get home a winner since the barn change. |
| West Hills Giant |
| 78 days since placed 1st as a heavy-betting choice; G3-placed at today's distance on fast dirt and graduated going this far on grass; serious issue is his only BEL-Inner Turf race represents a career-low Beyer and last-place finish showing zero run on wet grass. |
| Dysprosium |
| Switches to the Mott barn off the front-running stakes domination to remain perfect; benefits with not much other gate speed to test him from the gate; main issue is catching wet-turf courses for first pair and still has plenty to prove on firm; adds 4 pounds to race with his heaviest assignment ever; try to catch me. |
| Vinny Goodtimes |
| Graduated at today's distance and has improved since claimed off trainer Pletcher which does not often happen; the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with an 85 Beyer; deep closer was claimed in July but has moved forwardly sharply and is now is in a stakes event; bullet-dirt workout suggests he is ready to fire a good one on any surface. |
| Irsaal |
| Main Track Only entry chased the runner-up finisher from last who Beyered 91 in a next-out MTH-107K stakes win; he defeated the 4th-place finisher from last who Beyered 93 in a next-out SAR alw., score; can handle fast or wet footing equally well. By Art Gropper |
Race 10
|