Belmont: Closer Looks for October 23, 2013

Race 1

Strike Accord

The 73 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for her latest effort is the best last race figure in this field, but this miss is a stone-cold closer and she's settled for more than her share of minor awards along the way; it's tough to trust her with the win dollar, but she does have to be viewed in light of a contender.

Hope for Tomorrow

Lightly raced filly is a pretty interesting player in this spot when considering that she showed up with a pretty nice performance in her only start over turf as a 2-year-old; obviously there are some concerns with the long layoff, but going to respect her chances in her 3-year-old racing debut; winner from latest won next out at Aqu on 2/15 going 1m vs. 75k OPC's with a 61 Beyer.

Flirtatious Spring

She's another in here with just a single victory after many starts, but like the idea of this mare getting back over turf, and she has a number of turf starts on her card that suggest that she can be competitive in this spot; Ortiz is a go-to rider for this outfit.

Chloe Bear

She's probably going to need to show up with a performance that earns her a career best Beyer Speed Figure to prove to be the one in this spot, but she does appear to be well meant while making just her second start for this barn and getting a rider switch to Castellano.

Golden Cheetah

Her two most recent races have been right in line with what it might take to get the job done in this spot and she's eligible to be ready to give a good account of herself while making her second start back from a layoff; one of two signed on in here for the Schettino barn.

Take It Inside

This race really doesn't appear to have much early speed in it, and as long as a horse like Hope for Tomorrow isn't overly aggressive from the break, this filly might find herself setting a sensible early pace; don't like to see that she's winless in her last 18 starts, but race shape does appear to be in her favor.

Miz Owell

Late running type has been in fine form since moving into this barn and being placed back over turf, and even though the early pace in this race might not be closer friendly, it's probably a good idea to respect her chances as a top contender; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 10/9 going 7f over turf vs. 50k OPC's with an 87 Beyer.

Kate Is a Ten

She deserves credit for the way that she was able to get the job done the last time she was seen racing over turf, but she is going to need her best performance to date in order to come out on top in this spot; maybe the barn change can help her along, but prefer to side with others.

Always Home

She's the only one in here with more than a single victory next to her name and this doesn't look like a bad spot for her to step up out of the claiming ranks and take a shot at N1X allowance competition; Maragh seems to know the right buttons to push aboard this miss. By Brian Pochman

Race 2

Samraat

By a Grade 1-placed winner of $360K who is getting 2 percent juvenile debut winners and 9 percent 2-year-old winners overall; dam was a winner of $22K and has produced three stakes-placed winners including Screen Legend, who was Grade 3-placed at 2; shows some bullet works.

Eye Luv Lulu

By a Grade 2 winner of $1.4mm who is getting 8 percent juvenile debut winners and 18 percent 2-year-old winners overall; dam was a winner of $42K and this is her first foal to race; has speed influences on both sides of his pedigree.

Native Hero

By a Grade 3 winner of $836K who shows no juvenile debut winners from a limited sample and 9 percent 2-year-old winners overall; this one's the second foal to race from a mare who was a winner of 12 of 33 starts and $118K.

Metropolitan Storm

February foal is attempting to reverse a string of double-digit defeats; do like that his dam ran out $203K, and that he has worked a bullet five furlongs since his last start, on Oct. 2; breeze suggests he could fire an improved race.

Campion Lane

He has a couple of reasons to move forward; for starters, this will be just the second start of his career; he also exits a race that went in good time; dam was a stakes winner of $169K and produced a multiple stakes winner in Big Brownie ($269K); leading contender.

Bluegrass Flash

He's been favored in both of his starts and while the races have been turf routes, he shows a sharp work for the turn back to six furlongs; he's also fresh as this will be his first start since August; owns the field's best Beyer Figures and is from a multiple stakes-winning mare who has produced a Grade 1 winner in Discreet Marq ($705K); choice.

Woke Up Tired

By a multiple Grade 1 winner of $3mm who is getting 12 percent juvenile debut winners and 13 percent 2-year-old winners overall; dam was a stakes winner of $209K and she has produced two winners from three foals to race; nice five furlong work in final prep for debut; leading contender. By Mary Rampellini

Race 5

Rohver Girl

Broken Vow about 11% with juvenile debuters in a 336-runner survey; about 10% with first-time turfers in a 384-runner sample; sire took a G2, banked over $700K, never turfed; dam 0 for 1; lone half sis to race lost thrice in the minor leagues on dirt; rider is 8 for 25 for this barn in the last year or so.

Cocoa

Cosmonaut 0 for 6 with debuting juveniles, 1 for 5 with first-time turfers; Grade 3 winning sire earned over $1.2 million on turf, lost only start at 2; dam lost 4 times; lone half bro was 0 for 15; could need experience.

Crashing Conclave

The drop is logical after several dull efforts; turf only stakes winning dam earned nearly $300K; this is her first to race; needs a wake up call.

Unspoken Rule

Homebred was an ice cube on the board and never raised a gallop; dam took 2 sprints, lost only turf out; 2 if 3 siblings won; top kin Schoolyard Dreams won at 2, was 2nd twice in best grass moments, earned nearly $350K; more experienced rider hired.

Camden Jane

Debut very solid especially considering she just cost $4500; 2 for 28 dam was dirt route only; 2 of 3 siblings won but neither at 2 or on grass; look for rider to send and try to steal it.

Reckless Move

She walked out of the gate to kick it off and got a little education on grass last time; one for 3 dam earned about $45K and did win on turf; this is her first to race; Dutrow awesome going MSW to maiden claiming.

Kava

After Market 7 for 65 with juvenile debuters, 5 for 58 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won two Grade 1s, banked over $900K on grass; Grade 3 placed 3 for 14 dam earned over $100K, all on turf; 4 of 5 sibs won; 2 won at 2 and 2 won on grass; lean toward watching one.

Rock Me Mama

Wide twice but she is starting to approach her proper level; 3 for 13 dam lost twice on grass; 2 of 3 siblings won, one took debut at 2, neither tried turf; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this runner.

Gondole

Fresh Lasix and note Ortiz is 24% for this barn in the last year of so; dam was unraced; 2 of 4 sibs won; 1 cashed on grass, neither won at 2; this miss looks live.

Al's Gal

It's possible she disliked the inside in the debut as she was just a brief threat; in for $25K more than purchase price but the debut came back live; the 3rd and 9th finishers won in MSW land next out, the 7th finished was 2nd beaten a neck in an MSW and the place horse took a Grade 3 next out with a 78 Beyer; dam was unraced; several multiple race winners in the tree; one took debut at 2, another won umpteen times on grass in S. America; has some things to iron out.

Tapitbythesea

She just never got untracked when in a little tough last time; dam was unraced; lone half bro won once on dirt as older horse; if she has any kind of talent, she figures to show it here.

Princess Tumi

You win at 28% but putting them where they belong, hence the drop; dam was unraced; family is solid, all 6 siblings won; 3 won at 2, SW top kin Whatsitgonnatake won 9 times, banked nearly $250K; expect much better effort.

My Surfer Girl

Considering the stretch out and the blinks, she has a shot to be more involved early; SW 5 for 24 dam earned $185K; 2 if 3 sibs won but neither at 2; trainer has spotted them just fine this year with limited starters.

Las Olas Azur

Miss took overland route when beating 3 home; SW 3 for 16 dam earned over $150K; lone half bro to race lost 4 times; capable barn overdue to get rolling. By Brian Mulligan

Race 6

Union Square

Sire gets 11% first out winners and 8% first time surface winners from his offspring; dam was a limited turf winner whose lone foal to race won first out and was a 4 time surface winner and 59K earner; barn knows what it is doing with this type but she's going to take tote support and is in for a pretty cheap tag right off the bat.

Nickerdoodle

Shipper catches a pretty moderate bunch while making her local debut off another solid breeze at her base for a barn that does great work second off the break; she flashed some improvement when moved back to the lawn with shades added at Delaware for this price a few weeks back and the move inside should help in a field with little early foot; giving her the nod to get there on top today.

Coralita

Failed to finish when sluggish in her first crack off this outfit's claim; fact she returns in 3 weeks with a solid breeze in tow suggests she may be over whatever was ailing her and she did run well on the green upstate this summer, but still have to be wary of her; prefer to back others on the win end.

Bargaining Table

Enters this off a career best number for a barn that's come alive at the local stand; filly has had plenty of chances, however, and she did get a pretty solid clip in front of her in that last one; capable on her best but she'll need to be more alert from the bell today; consider.

Elissa Town

Had some trouble early before offering little in her first out sprint debut behind a runner who returned to break her maiden a couple of weeks back; maybe the stretchout helps and the initial experience certainly can't hurt; she's kin to several winners including a 2 time surface winner and main track G3 SW router Golden Sonata who banked 288K so maybe she goes better here.

Jilted Tiara

Tried MSWs first out and didn't do much running in a heat she failed to finish; maybe the class relief and new Lasix help and she does get a big rider switch for this one; dam dropped 2 surface winners.

Love That Kelly

Beaten odds on chalk ships back here after getting on track too late in the last out sprint across the river; she's been solid going long in the past and her lick should be sharpened enough to get her involved from the bell in this one; thinking they'll have to run her down in the lane to win.

Patriot's Jewel

Statebred hasn't been close to the winner in any of her 5 career starts and now she'll try the lawn and open company each for the first time; gray goes for an outfit that doesn't win too often and her sire is just 1 for 20 with first time turfers; dam's lone foal to try the green was 0 for 1 over it; longshot again.

Shewreckstheplace

It's been a long while since this gal has hit the board and her recent spin over the local sod wasn't much; maybe the added trip helps and she could be tighter second back from the break, but she's certainly had her share of chances; price should be big so maybe she's worth trying to get in the exotics, but it's tough to get excited about her chances of winning this.

Notional Girl

She's been freshened since an improved try on the drop to this level at Saratoga; filly draws a tough starting slot for a runner without much early foot and the barn hasn't had a very good meeting, but her late interest in that last one was enough to warrant her at least a look in this field.

Lady C Note

MTO tries open company again after failing to get out of the gate cleanly against restricted runners second time out; both of her sibs were main track winners and one of them won twice over wet surfaces so if the rains come she could well benefit. By Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Awakino Cat

Was screaming out for more distance in last and gets it here; field-best Beyer was posted August, 2009, in a SAR-5.5F turf stakes when sitting just off the pace to score; have mixed reviews for the new barn; his 2-back 1st-off-the-claim speed figure was his best since September, 2010, but then showed nothing in last; is aggressively spotted right back in a race where he can be claimed from.

Renzo Bertoni

Exits his best Beyer since August, 2012, when rallying well on today's turf course at the 7F distance; today is the heaviest weight assignment since April, '12; clearly has shown up with some strong efforts since blinkers were added 4 starts ago.

Momma's Happy

Today will mark his shortest-distance test ever off the co-career-best Beyer; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 71 in his next-out PRX-5K-claiming win; was edged by the 3-back runner-up who Beyered 79 in his next-out MTH alw. victory.

Bluegrass Springs

Last 2 sprint starts were both win pictures including latest with a career-best Beyer attached; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL alw. with an 88 Beyer; 2-time win rider yields 30%-BEL winners for the barn; late runner scored in latest despite hitting the gate in an impressive effort; would be hard to handle if can only repeat latest effort.

Thomas Hill

2-for-4 off the claim with 2 very-sharp wins and 2 dull efforts; consistetncy is not his best asset; the 3-back winner and show finishers Beyered 86-72 in next-out KEE alw. wins; reunites with the 2-back win rider who is a super 4-for-11 for the trainer since 2012.

Where's Danny (IRE)

Exits a career-low Beyer on dirt noting his co-best USA speed figure was at the 7F distance on the turf course of today's event; worked well on dirt for this; off latest dull 2nd off the claim he seems way off his best game for a 1-for-30 jockey-trainer combo since 2012.

Beeliner

Speedster gets in light off the career-best dirt Beyer and clearly would not mind this moved to a fast-dirt oval a surface which he has been best over during career; defeated 2 runners combined in last 2 turf races so would be a surprise on the green.

Hamnet

Lightly-raced so still has plenty of upside; the maiden victory 53 days ago looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 74 in his next-out BEL-MSW win; latest SAR-dirt workout suggests he will be ready to fire today for a high-percentage fresh barn and jockey-trainer combo.

Jess Not Jesse

Thomas Hill rematch with a positive 2-pound weight swing off the favored loss where he tired on less-than-firm footing; wet grass has been a surface he's loved in the past including the October, 2011, career-best Beyer on today's Widener green; would need a significant improvement from last to turn the tables with a ground-losing trip projected here. By Art Gropper

Race 8

Ruthless Alley

He has some early speed to employ from a favorable inside post position and he figures to appreciate the drop in class for this; runner up from latest won next out here on 6/23 going 1 1/16m vs. N2L alw. rivals with an 81 Beyer and 3rd finisher won next out here on 6/27 going 1 1/4m vs. 35k OPC's with an 87 Beyer.

Kiss of Thunder

Four-time winner faces mostly limited winners in this spot and like to see that he's gotten the job done in three of eight turf starts; he owns the ability to adapt to any early pace scenario and the inside post helps him avoid early ground loss.

Trusted Choice

Don't like to see that he had to be pulled up and vanned off from his latest start and he will have to be ready to take his game to another level to get the better of this field; respect the presence of Rosario, but going to look in another direction.

Ducks Dock

Half-brother to multiple G1 winner overseas, Elusive Kate (7-16, $1.3 million) was a sharp winner in his turf debut at second asking, and he commands a good deal of respect in his first start against winners based on that performance; top connections add appeal.

Yo Blue

Five-time winner has developed a nice level of consistency to his game and not only has he won half of his eight turf starts, but he's 3-for-5 over the Belmont Park turf; not going to argue with anyone for looking favorably in this direction.

Saved the Best

This gelding has a good deal of turf in his pedigree and he showed up with a much improved performance while making his first start for this barn after a 25k claim in his latest outing; the 84 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his most recent start is the best last race figure in this field.

Wind of Bosphorus

Don't like to see the clear late lead he gave up in his latest outing going a flat mile, but was still a fine performance, and it was on the level of what it will take to be competitive in this spot; he deserves to be listed among the contenders.

Odeon

It would have been nice to have seen him show more in his New York racing debut back in May, but he did beat today's rival Ruthless Alley in that race, and his connections see fit to take an aggressive drop in class with him for his first start in nearly five months; must consider.

I'm Wide Awake

He might be ready to give a good account of himself while making his third start back from a layoff, and his third start since being claimed by these connections, but he might be more comfortable at distances shorter than today's 1 1/16m assignment.

The Man Himself

He deserves another chance to see what he can do racing over turf and he's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 9 of 44 starts for 683k, including 7 of 31 turf starts for 587k; third finisher from latest won next out at Mth on 10/6 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 20-18k claimers with a 71 Beyer.

Hot Sand

Don't care to see that they've been willing to lose him since day one, but he is lightly raced and he's out of a G1 winning dam who won 9 of 26 turf starts for $1.2 million; leaning toward others if he draws in, but wouldn't consider him a total shocker.

Summit County

He looks like a solid fit at this level of competition and he might be ready to take a step forward while making his second start back from a layoff; his complete lack of early speed is a concern, but he can't be ignored if he gets to go in this spot.

Revelationist

Half-brother to G3 winner Sky Kingdom (4-13, 319k) beat today's rival The Man Himself in his latest outing and the third place finisher from that race returned to win next out at Mth on 10/6 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 20-18k N3L claimers with a 71 Beyer.

Pontus

This looks like it can prove to be an ideal spot for this gelding to make his first start since August, and if he's ready to deliver a top try right off the bench, he'll be very tough to tackle; obvious threat.

Candy Raider

His best effort appears to be a cut or two below what some of the top contenders in this race are capable of; tough to give this late running type a favorable push against these.

Barrister Jim

His most recent race was easily his sharpest performance to date and don't want to ignore the fact that he's making his first start for a barn that is capable of moving one forward; runner-up from latest returned to win next out at Sar on 8/17 going 1 1/16m over turf turf vs 25k MCL's with a 70 Beyer. By Brian Pochman

Race 9

Mr. Espresso

Makes his first local start after coming up with little late in his return from the freshening at Parx; effort 2 back going long at Monmouth earned a number that would put him in the picture here and he gets a solid pilot today, but his lack of speed won't help him from this inside draw in a bulky field.

Strike the Tiger

Ships in fron Arlington to make his local debut for a new outfit; he'll catch conditioned foes in this spot and he does pack a solid late kick when right, but he's another who is going to need to be more involved from the bell from this post.

Star of Sarava

Gelding was beaten at odds on over the Parx main track last time and now he'll get back to the green in his local course debut with a top pilot taking the call; he earned numbers in Florida that fit pretty well in here and though it's been a while since he's been on the green he certainly deserves some consideration over the stuff.

Fourseventeen

Last out runner up at the trip tries a notch better after failing to hold off the winner late; he hasn't won in a while and the barn has had a rough stand, but this guy does own some back efforts that are good enough and his last may be a sign that he's back in form.

Master Wesley

He's tried allowance runners most of the year and now he'll drop back in for a conditioned tag with a top pilot taking the call; cut back to 7 panels may suit him as the barn does well with the move to sprinting and this guy did work a sharp half mile the last time he stepped on the racetrack; can't count him out at this level.

Minnie Punt

First part of the coupling hasn't seen the winner's circle in ages but he's been on the improve since taken by this outfit here in the spring; his recent numbers do put this statebred right in the thick of this and he was right there in each of his last 2 at this level; dangerous, but given the recent slate it's tough to stand alone with him on the win end.

Tiger Willie

Hasn't hit the board in a long time and he's yet to find the winner's circle in 20 spins over the local sod; recent spin at this level doesn't suggest he's a very good fit with these right now; different day, same longshot.

Mythical Hero

Just missed in a protected spot at Parx last time and now he'll turn back to sprint in his return to a course over which he ran well in his lone try; drop to the conditioned claiming ranks looks to suit this 8 year old pretty well if he can stay in touch early at this shorter trip; contender.

Dual Citizen

Other half of the entry tracked a quick clip in his return to the lawn at the level and didn't have enough to go on late; winless this year, he hasn't been in very good form and hasn't run very fast since taken by this outfit; statebred sheds some weight with a capable bug named, but he has some improving to do.

Pasta Lover

Makes his first start off the claim by an outfit that's been on a poor run with this type; gelding should benefit from the return to the lawn as he was a solid surface router out of town last year, but he's been off his best game for a while now; prefer others.

Coach A. J.

Sprinter stretches out a bit after again failing to offer little in the lane while returning to the green; outside drawn sophomore does figure to offer lick, but there's not much to give the indication he'll have any more to offer late in this one; helps set the pace.

Equivocation

MTO enters this fresh while dropping below the price of the barn's claim after failing to fire on the stretchout over the Spa lawn; gelding did run big over a wet local main track this spring and maybe similar conditions help move this guy up some today; contender if the rains come.

Terminus

MTO offered little in his 2 recenty dirt tries but he'll drop in to face a cheaper bunch this time; gelding likes a wet track so if he gets to go he'll likely get to contest things over a surface he likes; worth a look for a barn that's found the winner's circle from limited starters here.

Curve Ball

MTO cuts back a panel after coming up empty late from a wide spot against cheaper here last time; he hasn't been very good since being taken by this barn and his sprint efforts this summer were't much but he's bred to move up over a wet track. By Steve Grabowski