Belmont: Closer Looks for October 20, 2013

Race 1

Gone Country

He attracted some wagering support for his career debut, so there's reason to believe that we didn't see the best of him, and this is an outfit that can have one ready for better the second time around; third-place finisher from latest won next out here on 10/14 going 7f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 61 Beyer; interesting to see Maragh land here.

Dream Theory

Full brother to stakes winner In Te Domine (3-12, 135k over turf) showed up with an improved performance in his turf debut at second asking and this is an outfit that can jump up with one on turf when least expected.

Balderdash

He's looked good in back-to-back starts to begin his career and it's interesting to see the addition of Lasix for this; he's out of a dam who was a multiple stakes winner while winning 5 of 18 turf starts for 238k; 4th finisher from latest, Gridley Here, won next out here on 10/6 going 1m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 71 Beyer.

Ausable River

Sire is 0-for-8 with his first-time starters and he's 0-for-6 with his turf starters, and dam won 2 of 11 starts for 42k, including 2 of 9 turf starts for 41k; 30k purchase makes his career debut at a demanding distance.

Dowse's Beach

Generazio-homebred is eligible to be ready for better at second asking with the addition of Lasix, and he's a full to multiple stakes winner At The Disco (10-65, 545k, including 3 of 32 turf starts for 192k); Ortiz has won with 5 of 20 (25%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Sam the Man I Am

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; he earned a minor stakes placing in a five-horse field in his career debut but he'll have to improve in his turf debut in order to get the better of the top contenders in here.

Sugar Gold

He's been outrun at every point-of-call in his first two career starts, and that includes a start over turf at second asking; maybe the addition of blinkers can help, but prefer to look in another direction.

Harbor King

He beat today's rival Gone Country in his latest start and the third-place finisher from that race won next out here on 10/14 going 7f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 61 Beyer; feel that it's more likely that Gone Country shows up with an improved run rather than this one.

Forever Utopia

He showed up with an improved performance at second asking and he beat one of today's key rivals in Balderdash in that race; he has the look of a top contender, and with only two starts behind him, the potential for better exists.

Tapidor

450k purchase is a 1/2 to Marieval (3-9, 55k over turf) and stakes winner Our Golden Dream (3-16, 143k over turf) but he's been beaten by a few of today's rivals in his first three starts; he has demonstrated steady improvement and it is interesting to see John V. get the call for this.

Deceived

There isn't much dirt form in the main body of this race and this colt has shown some late life in his first two starts; he's a 1/2 to G3 winner Naughty New Yorker (12-67, $1 million, including 11 route wins); winner from latest won next out here on 9/26 going 6f vs. 75k OPC's with a 72 Beyer.

Groupthink

Half-brother to minor stakes winner La Cancerto (8-18, 248k) and stakes placed Game Token (7-62, 297k) has finished second as an odds-on favorite in his first two starts; regardless, those starts have been strong enough to suggest that he'll be tough to deal with in this spot if he gets to go.

Race 2

Likeuasafriend

Ran 3rd in her debut here Sept. 26, which is nice, though it's not like she was a real factor (beaten 11 lengths); at least kept to her task after a troubled start and she can benefit from that run; is asked to step up in class, though; all 4 sibs are winners including Forest Passage (4 wins, $64K).

Sky Crew

3 solid outings in spots like this to start her career (3rd, 2 2nds); even so, it's not like she was a real player in the lane in those 3 (beaten 9 3/4, 6 1/4, 6 1/4 lengths); has shown good speed and that 2nd to Sweet Reason at SAR Aug. 9 looks better as that gal is among the 2yo filly elite.

Summertime Friend

Sire Medaglia d'Oro gets over 12% 2yo debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 8 of 17 for $5.7 million, was multiple G1 SW/SP), sired HOY Rachel Alexandra; dam's only foal is Indyniable (1 win, $38K); dam won 4 of 7 for $158K, 2 SWs; cost a pretty penny ($350K) and has plenty of works for this first run.

House Rules

Sire Distorted Humor gets over 16% 2yo debut winners; sire won 8 of 23 for $769K, was multiple G3 SW, was G1 SP, sired G1 Ky. Derby winner Funny Cide; dam's 1st foal; dam won 7 of 19 for $!80K, was a mulltiple G2/G3 SW and G1 SP in Argentina; light worktab but that snappy :47B here Oct. 13 (2nd fastest of 62 that day) catches the eye.

Compass Rose

Sire Mr. Greeley gets 10% 2yo debut winners; sire won 5 of 16 for $474K, was multiple G3 SW, also G1 SP; dam's 3 foals to race are winners including Reel Victory (4 wins, $163K, SP) and Carsoncityrose (8 wins, $126K); dam won 2 of 12 for $58K; full tab hints she's fit, and there's some evidence of speed, too.

Dixie My Way

Sire Dixie Union gets over 11% 2yo debut winners; sire won 7 of 12 for $1.2 million, was G1 SW sprinting and routing; dam's only foal is Silverado Moon (2 2nds in 4 starts, $11K); dam was off the board in 3 starts; plenty of works so there appears to be a foundation here.

Sun and Moon

Sire El Corredor gets over 7% 2yo debut winners; sire won 7 of 10 for $727K, was G1, multiple G2 SW; dam's only foal is Malibu High (2 wins, $74K, SP); dam won 3 of 22 for $157K, twice SP; steady works for a trainer who clicks at 12% first out.

Race 3

Cry Holy

She will be giving up recency to all of these as this will be her first out since December 2012; tough to expect one to be on top of their game after some 10 months away, but do like the fact that the barn excels with comebackers; would seem to be one to preview in the paddock.

Madre Ditutticapi

The return to Belmont Park's main track could be meaningful for this one, as she is 2-for-2 over the local strip; she also might benefit if the track is fast after catching a wet surface last time out at Sar; is fresh and has natural speed, and with that comes concern as there is a fair amount of speed to her outside.

Laguna Girl

She's meeting winners for the first time and brings a good deal of speed to the table; she was prominent on the turnback in distance last time, when she won a maiden allowance on the front end at Sar; shows some forward works since the race, and has run well in the past at Bel; a concern is that she faces other speed, between Madre Ditutticapi, Talent N Passion, and perhaps Cry Holy.

Seasoned Warrior

Grade 2-placed runner was at a disadvantage from the start in her comeback last time, when she stumbled in a sprint; the out was her first since last fall and she would seem to have reason to move forward; she also could get an ideal pace setup behind a few of these; dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner of $502K, and she has produced a multiple Grade 3 winner in Hide and Chic ($442K), and a multiple stakes winner in Autobahn Girl ($237K); choice.

Trail Walker

She added blinkers last out and was a sharp winner at this distance, covering six furlongs in a quick 1:09.60; for the effort she earned what ranks as this field's best last-race Beyer Figure; might get a nice setup behind the speed, and like that she is one of the winningest members of the field with three career victories; she also lands in a field of straight 3-year-olds after plying her trade against older rivals; win candidate.

Talent N Passion

She's one of a handful in the field with good speed and draws what might prove to be the most tactical post, to the outside of her fellow front-runners; do like that she's been a popular claim, and the fact that she's won on the main track at Bel; she's also a five-time winner facing less experienced rivals; win candidate.

Race 5

Just Foolin Around

Runner up in his 2 Monmouth sod spins tries the local lawn for the initial time with a solid pilot named; gelding has done his running from off the pace and there doesn't appear to be a lot of early foot signed on for this one, but he does get an extra panel in which to make his run today and that could help to again get him in the exotics mix.

Secretive

Beaten chalk in his last 2 gives it another shot at the level while streching back out to the trip of his decent third place finish upstate; McGaughey colt draws inside for this so maybe he's able to secure a ground saving spot going into the turn and no one in here ran faster than he did on the green this summer; looks like they'll have him to beat again.

Boss Man

He's been idle since dumping his pilot from the outside slot in a productive Gulfstream heat last winter; gelding was pretty good first out over a heavy local course at this time last year and the barn does pretty nice work with its returnees; dam and one of her 2 other foals to race were surface winners; consider.

Inchcape

Colt was given some time off the second straight near miss and now he'll step back up to the MSW ranks for his first start off this sharp outfit's claim; he got good once they stretched him out and put him on the lawn, but note that each of his solid efforts did come upstate; still, if the outfit is able to move him up just a touch he looms a serious danger.

Alysaro

Last out runner up on the main track stretches out for his surface debut; his sire is just 7 for 120 with his initial turf starters and the route winning dam lost her lone grass try prior to dropping one foal who tried the footing and was 0 for 6 over it.

Viva Lad

Gelding has solid positional foot which should help him sit a good spot in his first crack over the course; routing has tested his stamina so don't know that today's added panel will be right up his alley, but the heat's pace dynamics figure to suit him and he'll switch back to a top pilot who was aboard for the upstate marathon try a couple of months back; can't overlook.

Master Jordan

Beaten last out chalk ships in to try the local sod for the initial time; his lone surface spin wasn't terrible and he is in decent form right now, but the low percentage outfit names a pilot who has yet to win at the local stand; these may be too much for him right now.

Waynesborough

Showed some late run over a wet Penn National main track in his first start for this barn and now he'll stretch out a bit for his return to the green in his local debut; gelding is out of a SP dam whose 4 wins came on the lawn and she dropped a few surface winners including G3 SW turfer and 356K earner Philly Ace, and local turf winner Slambino who banked 309K; starts from the outside slot and may need some help up top but he's one to keep and eye on in the lane.

Tony D

MTO earned a career best number in his return from the freshening last out but still wasn't much of a threat after breaking from the fence in that one; barn boasts weak numbers with its runners second back from the break and none of his wet track spins was much.

King of Broadway

MTO earned a big number when third at the level while going a bit shorter last time; he's handy enough to secure a spot close to the top early and that could give him a big advantage over a wet track that he's bred to love; they'll have him to beat if he goes.

Race 6

Forever for Always

Exits a co-field-best Beyer speed figure more than 6 months ago for an 0-for-9 long-layoff trainer since 2012; the runner-up finisher from her debut posted a 71 Beyer in a next-out AQU-MSW win; figures to race midpack while saving ground from the hedge; 1-for-24 jockey-trainer combo since '12 does not add to the appeal.

Today Not Tommorow

Improved slightly since switched to grass but latest was another far-back finish at triple-digit odds leaving her as an an outsider for this; the debut runner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with a 68 Beyer; would be a complete shocker if she made any impact here.

Quiet Kiss

Turf has provided a wakeup call but remains at 1 Mile after a belated rally vs. Uman Candy who follows her here; career-best Beyer at longer than this and late runner it appears needs more yardage to see very-best form; the debut winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with a 69 Beyer.

Transplendid

Saved best Beyer for last racing at today's distance on BEL-Widener green; has been an improved runner showing better-gate speed since blinkers were added for last pair; the 2-back winner posted a 71 Beyer in a next-out AQU-MSW win.

Hillbilly Hula Gal

Sire is 1-for-11 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 3-0-0-0 grass dam (2K); 3 foals to race on turf are 0-for-7 combined (8K); also eligible Saturday in BELs 5th race 50-1 morning-line odds in a 7F-MSW event; exits a career-best Beyer when screaming out fore more distance and gets it here.

Uman Candy

Exits a co-field-best Beyer speed figure when stretched out to 1 Mile for the 1st time for the appretntice rider who is also back for this; worked smartly on dirt pre-rest and would probably not mind this moved to the main track; the one they all must hold off in deep stretch.

Spritely Mambo

Sire is 10-for-100 with 1st-turf starters; 9-139 with debut runners; is the 1st foal to race out of an 0-for-1 dam who did not race on grass; best workout was her last but for an 0-for-27 rider at the current meet for an 0-for-5 debut trainer since 2012.

Josie's Prospect

Sire is 10-for-110 with 1st-turf starters; dam went 4-0-1-0 on grass; 2 of 5 foals to race on turf are green winners including 255K-turfer Good Prospect (7-for-41); the workouts off the 50-day absence were not eye catching but is here for a 31%-winning jockey-trainer combo and 24%-winning 2nd-start barn.

Peggy Virginia

Also entered Saturday in a 7F-MSW turf event; set the pace 2nd-time out needing that race off nearly 4 months away and has every right to carry her speed a lot longer 2nd time off the bench; the winner and runner-up from the debut Beyered 72-67 in next-out BEL-optional-claiming and 35K-maiden-claiming wins.

Canela Rose

Main Track Only entry leaps up in class off 2 maiden-claiming losses which is not a good win angle; adding distance off recent sprint rallies adds to the appeal noting the dam's sire was a Ky Derby winner; worked smartly on dirt for the class hike.

Race 7

Medea (IRE)

Have to respect what she's done in her first two starts in America, especially when considering the time off between races, and she appears to still have more to show us; she is meeting up with winners for the first time, so an improved performance is a must, but that possibility certainly exists.

Win for Kitten

Perhaps an improved looking recent workout is a sign that she's going to be ready for an improved performance, but she is going to need to step it up over what she's been doing in order to contend; prefer to look in another direction.

Clearbrook

Pompa-owned filly is two-for-two in the quality start department to begin her career, and not only is she by a strong turf sire, but her dam was a stakes winner while winning 4 of 12 turf starts for 158k; this is a top turf barn that usually improves them with age and experience, and Alvarado has won with 8 of 25 (32%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Little Often Anni

Multiple stakes placed mare hasn't been in bad form lately, but this does appear to be a tough spot for her to lane in; note that this late running type is winless in her last 18 starts going back through 2012; looking toward others.

Industrial Policy

She was sharp in breaking her maiden two starts ago and she stepped it up nicely along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in a near-miss performance while meeting up with winners for the first time in her latest outing; one of two signed on in here for the Brown barn.

Christmas Angel

Respect the fact that this is a barn and rider that win their share of races together, but this mare has just a single victory after 19 career starts, and she's never run a race that is fast enough to suggest that she can be competitive in a spot like this.

Sandcastle

Not going to be surprised if she's a part of the early pace picture but she's another in here who will need to produce career best performance in order to have a say in the outcome; she looks like more of an outsider.

Sally's Dream

She commands her share of respect in this spot when seeing that she's won 7 of 19 over turf, including three 3 of 9 over the Belmont Park turf, and her best effort can get her into the mix against these; she might find herself sitting a comfortable trip behind the early speed of Sandcastle.

Miracle Maid (GB)

This outfit scores big in all of the race specific categories, and even through she beat a small field when last seen as a favorite, it looks like she put together a pretty nice run; she's a very interesting player in here while getting Lasix for this first time, and the presence of John V. helps add appeal.

And Why Not

Multiple G1 stakes placed miss will find herself in an ideal spot if this race has to be taken off the turf; just about all of her dirt starts have been stronger than anything anyone in the main body of this race has done racing over dirt; maybe there's some to be said for her lack of winning form after 16 starts, but she'll be tough to look past.

Race 8

Guard the Empire

First foal out of a mare that won a Grade 1 in Argentina will get a serious test in her first start in this circuit; her Beyer Speed Figure came back a bit light for her latest win but she went right down to her knees at the start and was still able to win; she's better than she looks on paper and she shouldn't mind the slightly longer distance; consider for the exotics.

I'mclassyandsassy

She had a rough trip in a key race the last time she ran and she also overcame a poor start to win her previous race; she won her debut so she can fire fresh but this didn't exactly come up easy and she'll need to be at her very best to contend here; the past five years Hobby has a 20 percent strike rate with horses returning between 61-180 days but we're still going to pass.

Uno Duo

Won like a 1-2 favorite should and the Beyer Speed Figure is the best in the field; she's a half-sister to $659K Grade 1 winner Etoile Montante so she could have plenty of upside potential; lone concern is the gap in her works between Aug. 4 and Sept. 20 but she's in very good hands and Rosario keeps the faith; big shot.

Asiya

She had an easy time handling next-out winner Sweet Lulu when she came back from a lengthy layoff and we're willing to forgive her for not being able to keep up in the Grade 1 Cotillion in her latest; no disgrace to lose to the best 3-year-old filly in the country before she went on the shelf in the $100K Busanda; third start back could be a big one; the pick.

Saturday Nthe Park

She's been in part of the tri in 8 of her 9 starts but she's been facing a lot easier company than she'll be meeting here; she won't mind the cutback in distance after setting the pace in the $100K Zaftig but she is going to have to deal with Uno Duo early and could have a hard time keeping up late; hard to knock her consistency, though; consider for the exotics.

Miss Mischief

Seems like a tough spot for her after she couldn't win a $25K optional race at Laurel in her latest; she did go pretty wide on the turn and maybe she'll improve with the blinkers going on for the first time which has been a profitable move for Dutrow; first foal out of a stakes placed mare looks like she's in pretty tough, though.

Toasting

That was a nice effort in the My Flag, which has the same conditions as this race, and she may have bounced in the Zaftig; not sure if she really wants to sprint, though; her best races have been at 1 1/8 miles and she's never won a race shorter than a mile; looking elsewhere.

Merry Meadow

Another good effort in her latest and it's hard not to like a horse that has only been worse than third once in 13 starts; it took her a while to get over the top but she came right back to win her first try with winners and she just missed in her latest with older fillies and mares; she has good speed but can stalk and could make some noise if Lezcano can keep her from getting into a duel.

Race 10

Boardwalk Baron

Cozy slot now and he could show more speed on the stretch out; the place horse 7/22 graduated next out in a MSW with an 85 Beyer; bothered early on in last but with a clean start, it could be a whole new ballgame.

Fastinov

Was coming out when probably tiring and the stewards got involved; he has failed repeatedly for cheaper tags and there are others in here with designs on the top; not sure the race sets up all that great for him.

Inmyfathersimage

Double jumps off the claim, lack of speed can make him his own worst enemy; connections wouldn't mind if he starts acting like top kin, triple winner and over $100K earner Da Vinci; like the series of drills since being claimed; don't ignore.

Media Groupie

Brings :45 and change speed to the table but there are stamina issues; soph has the 3 races to draw from now and the 8/31 place horse took a maiden $25K Delaware seller; there are several 6-figure earners in the tree including Grade 3 winner and over $425K earner Cigar Man; look for bug to send and try to steal it.

Hudson Miracle

Can't fault those that are a bit gun shy after the double chalk flop; he has room to grow as kin to 4 for 7 over $100K earner Jet Set Citi; top Beyer came for this rider, first time under purchase price; he looks very well intentioned.

Bernie's Best

Trainer shakes things up with the blinks today; runner has a lot of work to do to match top kin, near $250K earner Haddie Be Good; key off his April effort and runner must be given a legit look.

Dendrite

Gelding has been knocking at the door but after 24 beats, it's hard to find the upside; the bullet on Thursday should have him on his toes; overdue to hit paydirt.

Plated

Like the way he was getting to the winner and he should have his sea legs under him by now; was cut out to run as a $500K purchase; with him style, things have to unfold just right; far too sharp not to take seriously.

Market Blaster

Was right there at the top of the lane, then went backward; it was the first time he ran in the money and the 6/2 place horse cashed next out in a maiden $25K claimer, then was 2nd beaten just under 3 in a $35K claimer; contender, far from a cinch.

Angel de Amour

Runner has more speed than he flashed in last and his tactical speed will give him first run on the deep closers; only one off effort this year and that was on the wet/fast strip; may like it here.

Doc Cebu

Hung wide in last and must be given legit look on the drop alone; in for $235K less than purchase price and the 8/23 place horse graduated next out in a MSW with an 81 Beyer; soph has a chance to grow into his skin as kin to G3 winner and millionaire Real Dandy; this rider up for the career Beyer; look for him late if at all.