Belmont: Closer Looks for October 2, 2013

Race 1

Radiant Cut

Half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Mr Gruff (7-10, 339k over turf in North America) is a little interesting in this spot while making her first start as a 3-year-old; winner from latest won next out at Aqu on 12/12 going 6f vs. 75k OPC's with a 65 Beyer.

Villanella

She got back on top of her game while making her third start back from a layoff in her latest outing and like to see that she's three-for-four over the Belmont Park turf course; however, she is going to need to show up with an effort that earns her a career best Beyer Speed Figure to beat these.

Sunrise Kitty

Like to see her making back-to-back starts for the first time in her career and she owns the early speed to take it right at this field from the bell; can't ignore the presence of Castellano and he's won with 7 of 22 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

So Blessed

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 27 starts for 3k, including 0-for-2 over turf; multiple stakes placed filly has run pretty well since being claimed by her current connections and this isn't a bad spot to see what she can do over turf.

Nice Stuff

She's been on top of her game since moving into the Serpe barn, and if she can maintain her current level of form, she figures to be tough to deal with; not going to argue with anyone who feels that this miss is the one to deny, but she is light on recent winning form.

Insolvent

Respect Big Brown as a turf sire, and even though this filly didn't run all that well in her one turf try, she deserves another chance to see what she can do on grass, and perhaps she didn't care for the one mile distance in her first turf attempt.

My Bella Beauty

Her form has clearly improved since being placed over turf two starts ago and the runner up from her latest race returned to win next out at Sar on 9/2 going 5 1/2f vs. 25k OPC's with a 76 Beyer; she has a live look to her in this spot.

Strategic Missile

She's plenty capable of showing up with a performance that makes her competitive against competition of this caliber, but it's not exactly encouraging to see that she has just a single victory in her last 19 starts going back through 2012.

Mama Zee

There are a few horses signed on in this spot with respectable dirt form and this filly is going to need to improve over what she's shown us in her first three starts in order to see her number posted on top after this one.

Trail Walker

Don't want to ignore that she's making her first start away from the Asmussen barn, but if this race has to be taken off the turf, this looks like it will be a favorable spot for this filly to get to make her first start for new connections. By Brian Pochman

Race 2

Uptown Joe

They paid a lot for this guy in training earlier in the year and he's breezed rather well for this unveiling for an outfit that gets them ready to roll first time out; sire gets 10% debut winners and 14% first time surface winners from his offspring and the dam was a limited route winner who hit the board without winning in 3 of her 4 turf spins; his other foal to race was winless from 2 main track starts.

Little Boss

Took a good step forward at the trip in his second career start here after taking plenty of money and coming up empty late in his Spa debut; gray is out of a SW dam whose 9 wins all came on the green and both of his sibs to race are surface winners; he's the one they'll have to beat.

Gabriel's Flame

Caught mud first out at Parx and didn't do much running; barn is profitable of late on the surface switch and the sire gets an ok 9% winners from his initial turf starters, but there doesn't look to be much turf pedigree on the dam's side; just watching him here.

Cabo Cat

Sire gets about 17% winners with both his overall newcomers and those trying the green for the initial time and this guy is the first foal to race out of a dam whose 3 wins all came on the green; barn's recent run with firsters has been pretty poor.

Giant Fox

Sire gets 10% first out winners and 9% initial surface winners from his offspring and the multiple SP dam banked 102K while winning first out and finishing off the board in her lone turf spin; he's kin to 7 winners including 2 who won on the lawn and G1 SP main track sprinter and 166K earner Glorified; barn has gone well of late and boasts some recent luck with debut runners.

Enthrone

Wasn't beaten much after taking the long way home in his turf debut here last month and one of the guys who beat him to the wire returns here as well; he's got a right to improve second time over the footing but he'll need to show a little more early interest in order to have a shot of turning the tables on the last out runner up; contender.

Ferlin Husky

Ran into a hyped juvenile in that quick upstate debut heat and didn't do much running; runner up from that one returned to break his maiden at Churchill with just a 63 Beyer; barn does well moving them to the green and the dam's 2 wins came going long on the main track so maybe today's added trip helps him show more; sire gets 9% first surface winners from his offspring.

Summer Cove

This guy went for 35 times his sire's stud fee at auction as a juvenile and has barn has had some luck of late with its newcomers; sire gets 20% winners from his first out runners and is 9 for 40 with his initial surface runners; limited route winning dam's lone foal to race was winless from 2 cracks overseas.

Distant Thoughts

Sire gets 9% first out winners and 11% first time surface winners from his runners; SW dam won twice on the green and banked 179K prior to dropping a limited sprint winner; maybe the outside slot helps keep him out of trouble, but the barn's had a rough stand and doesn't boast much recent luck right out of the box.

First Bid

MTO gets 11% winners from his debut runners and the limited route winning dam's lone foal to race was himself a limited route winner; colt has been back on a steady worktab of late and the barn is certainly capable of firing with newcomers. By Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Tizarocket

Nothing wrong with that debut in the SAR mud Sept. 2 - a bit slow into stride but kept to her task decently; can surely benfit from that outing and you have to love 2 big works since including a bullet 1:01.20B here Sept. 26; 3 of 7 sibs are winners including Adonis DNA (3 wins, $25K).

Miss Besilu

Sire Medaglia d'Oro gets over 12% 2yo debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 8 of 17 for $5.7 million, won G1 Travers, G1 Whitney, G1 Donn, won multiple G2s, 2nd in G1 BC Classic (twice), G1 Belmont, G1 Wood, G1 Pacific Classic, G1 Dubai World Cup; dam's 9 foals to race are all winners including Saint Liam (9 wins, $4.4 million, won G1 BC Classic, G1 Donn, G1 Woodward, G1 Foster, twice G1 SP; dam won 6 of 23 for $224K, was a SW, G2 SP; plenty of works and she cost a pretty penny ($2.6 million) so they didn't buy her hoping for an allowance horse, of that you can be sure.

Indy's Million

Sire A. P. Indy gets over 11% 2yo debut winners; sire won 8 of 11 for $2.9 million, won G1 Hollywood Futurity, G1 SA Derby, G1 Belmont, G1 BC Classic, 2 G2s, 3rd in G2 JC Gold Cup, was HOY; unraced dam has 1 winner from 3 foals to race, this gal's full-sis Million Seller (4 wins, $164K, SW); plenty of solid works and she brought a hefty price at auction ($725K).

Glacken's Gift

Sire Medaglia d'Oro gets over 12% 2yo debut winners; sire won 8 of 17 for $5.7 million, won G1 Travers, G1 Whitney, G1 Donn, won multiple G2s, 2nd in G1 BC Classic (twice), G1 Belmont, G1 Wood, G1 Pacific Classic, G1 Dubai World Cup; dam has 1 winner from 2 foals, this gal's full-sis Live Lively (3 wins, $280K, G2 SW/SP); dam won only 2 starts, including a SW, for $90K; some crisp works for a trainer who fires first out (22%).

Domino Derval

Did everything right in her debut - just wasn't good enough to beat the smart-looking Ocean Boulevard, stalking the pace, opening up going to the far turn and still holding a big lead in midstretch before succumbing; that was a most encouraging first run and there are 3 works since.

Garzoni

Debut wasn't bad - had enough speed to stalk and while she never made a run she can certainly benefit from that outings; certainly bred to run on being by top-class runner and sire Bernardini; worked in solid fashion since; can improve, though she surely has to if she's to handle the gal to her left and a couple promising firsters. By Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Thundering Gale

Showed minor speed in both tries at Saratoga yet each race involved trouble; her sire won 3 of 7 and 388K; the dam was a G2 stakes winner who banked 261K; among the winning siblings is 252K earner Knight's Cross.

Lucky Seven

Modest work tab at the Big A is on display; her sire won multiple G1s and 7.61 million (offspring of Smarty Jones have scored in 30 out of 22 debuts); the dam won 5 of 48 and 161K; sib to 90K earner Rebel Raider.

My Jimmy Chew Girl

Perhaps she was uncomfortable breaking from the rail in her maiden voyage; her sire won the Kentucky Derby and the Travers en route to notching 2.91 million; the dam won 1 of 22 and 41K; this is her only foal to compete.

Miss Lilian Taylor

Progeny of U S Ranger, who won 5 of 19 and 481K, are zero for 15 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 1 of 6 and 24K; there are no winning siblings to mention; workout regimen is on the slow side.

Recovered

She hails from G2 victor Posse who captured 662K and whose descendants have won 10 percent of their initial starts; the dam won 1 of 3 and 10K; winning siblings include 90K earner Catalonia.

Livininthefastlane

Did not fare well first time out upstate but makes the important drop from special weights and the latest breeze was upbeat; her sire was undefeated including tally in the G1 Carter while earning 480K; the dam was zero for 7; there are no winning sibs to report.

Samurai's Honor

Flashed decent early speed over different surfaces before retiring; her sire won multiple G1s and 915K while the mom was a multiple G3 winner who earned 888K: winning siblings include 279K earner Passport.

Keep in Mind

Scheduled to add blinkers after tiring on a wide path first time out; her sire won 4 of 120 and 202K; the dam won 2 of 21 attempts and 111K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Maybry's Fortune

Could be the speed of the speed in a race that is difficult to unravel; her sire won a G3 and 322K while the dam won 5 of 17 and 116K; sib to Musket Man, a G2 winner who amassed 1.23 million.

Crystal Rocket

Blinker addition in August did not seem to help matters; she was all-out to capture the place in the previous run but the pace and final time of that event were not strong; destined for yet another wide trip, she will have to upgrade in a hurry.

Bridget Moloney

Sired by Pollard's Vision, a G2 winner who notched 1.43 million (his descendants have won first out at a rate of 9 percent); the dam won 1 of 10 tries and 17K; this is her sole foal to make it to the races. By Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Idle American

He's one of two in here with three turf wins next to his name, and even though he's meeting up with a strong group, his best effort is eligible to get her into the mix; feel that he's a threat to land a spot underneath in the exotics whether this race is run over turf or the main track.

Valid

Outside of his career debut and a G3 start where he lost all chance out of the gate, his form has been quite good, and that includes a couple of turf starts most recently; his latest effort was one of his sharper performances and that was also his first start wearing blinkers; Saez has won with 9 of 34 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Vinny Goodtimes

He hasn't run a bad race to date and he's looking like a very sharp 25k claim for his current connections; he was a sharp winner in his latest outing and it looks like he might have responded well to sitting out the early running and gearing up for a late move; can't ignore.

Red Vine

Like Vinny Goodtimes, he's four-for-four in the quality start department to begin his career, and if you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, he has it; he's a very interesting option to consider while getting a rider switch to Castellano.

Jonrah

It looks like the addition of blinkers has helped this gelding improve his game and like to see Lezcano aboard as he was up for a couple of his sharper performances two and three starts back; third place finisher from latest returned to win next out here on 9/15 going 1 1/8m over turf in a 150k stakes with a 95 Beyer.

Royal Blessing

Five of his seven starts have been good ones, and not only is he three-for-seven over turf, but he's three-for-four over the Belmont Park turf; not willing to ignore his chances in this very competitve N1X event.

Rapscallion

The move to turf agreed with this colt two races ago and he's seen drastic improvement along the Beyer Speed Figure scale; there's a chance that the early pace in here won't heat up all that much, and that would be just fine with this colt; he's another to add to the long list of contenders.

Peace and Justice

This colt is by a strong turf sire and he's a 1/2 to G2 winner Hudson Steele (7-15, 513k, including 6 of 12 turf starts for 486k); he was a sharp winner going a mile in his career debut and prefer to rate his chances based on that performance rather than the effort he showed up with at Saratoga in his latest outing.

Go Appeal

As can often be the case with this barn, this colt showed up with a much stronger performance at second asking, and if this race has to be moved to the main track, he'll merit respect as a top contender.

North Ocean

This gelding has a good deal of quality to his pedigree and his recent form has been strong enough to give him a competitive look in this spot; like to see that he's gotten the job done in two of his three starts over the main track here; he's an obvious threat if he gets to go.By Brian Pochman

Race 6

Lady C Note

Wasn't much of a threat to the top 2 when third going a bit longer first out here a couple of weeks back; barn has done ok at the stand, but they boast weak numbers with their second out runners; winless dam's other 2 foals to race are multiple winners, however, and now this gal will face statebreds.

Mononoke

Switches surfaces after showing some early interest from a tough outside draw in her turf debut; filly was quick enough to sit with the pacesetters in her main track tries upstate and maybe with the move inside she's able to control things from the bell as she gets another new pilot in here; final panel could be a concern, but they may have to come and get her to win.

Isn'tshewonderfull

Drops out of MSWs after showing little in her handful of starts this year; her narrow first out placing did come over the local main track and maybe the softer company helps get her going, but she'll need to be a lot better than she's shown of late in order to have a say in the outcome, even with these.

My Lucky Lieu

Five month break served her well as she returned to earn a career best number in that last out local sprint; filly showed improved lick in that one and maybe she's again close to the top early as she tackles and added panel in this spot; consider.

Shoptillclosing

Failed to finish in her Spa closing day return from nearly a year on the shelf; she ran big here at this time last year and she blew out the other day is if she's set to take a good step forward; maybe the return to a dry strip would help get her going.

Canela Rose

Lightly raced filly was beaten a length by one of these on the surface switch when dropped to the level last time; she returned to work a solid half mile and maybe the added panel helps her continue to move forward; price should be right to give her a look.

Transit Express

First out runner up didn't make much if an impact against the winner in that heat, but the pace was slow and that filly did return to beat winners with a 70 Beyer a couple of weeks back; interim breezes aren't much and the barn boasts weak numbers with its second out runners but if this gal does offer normal improvement she can't be overlooked.

Carole Lee

She ran well in each of her starts against claimers here a few months back and now she'll again drop in for a tag; cut back to this trip should help and she appears quick enough to secure a spot within striking range of the pacesetters; thinking she'll prove to be the one to hold off.

Jupiter Moon

Outside drawn fily was beaten chalk in her second crack for this price when cut back a panel last out; should find herself in a nice tracking spot from this slot and the number she earned 2 back at this trip upstate is probably good enough to win this; contender. By Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Ave's Halo

Can't fault those that give this gal one more chance today; she is sharp and is due to hit paydirt; tough beat the last time on this course and note she ran well from the rail upstate three back; miss figures to appreciate the shorter distance today; far too sharp not to take seriously.

Rebellious Chic

The 4 Kings Racing Stable was named as owner last year; runner graduated on the stretch out but did tease a few times in this league last year; one concern is that she had to take 2010 off and now has been gone for about 18 months; miss probably needs more real estate to boot.

Fantastic Eyes

Out of the money the other times at this level; show horse in last beat the rail runner next out and the 8/17 show horse took a $20K claimer next out on this course with a 72 Beyer; she may have not cared for the rail last time and will need help up front; look for her late if at all.

Ideal Place

Connections thought enough of her to try the stakes in the second start; pace was a lot slower than the August race and she was just left with too much to do; the fact she has been handled by a number of different rivals here must be addressed.

Therapy

Two decent efforts vs. winners; miss had a brief lead inside the 16th pole in last; the 6/23 winner repeated at this very level by a nose with a 71 Beyer; back with favorite pilot; should be right on the wire when the smoke clears.

My Uptown Gal

The light went on as soon as she was put on grass; one of her better assets is her tactical speed and she did get a boost when the winner 7/19 took a state-bred $50K optional, and then won again in a $200K stakes in Philly with a 93 Beyer; she has a chance to have a nice career as kin to double stakes winner and over $200K earner Go Tiger Jack.

Flying Sappho

Ten and still trying but wonder if she has lost the zest for the game?; last win came in September of 2011 in a $25K claimer; can't be thrilled with the beat in the cheap claimer three back; hard to by this ticket.

Eurokay by Me

The lone win came routing on a good turf course at 13-1; she did everything but get unsaddled in last as bug takes the reins; she got the last furlong in :12.61; the challenge today is putting two big races together.

Hlao Roo

Did that stakes try knock the starch out of her?; she came back in about 3 weeks after that neck beat, took about 7 weeks off after, then was put on the bench; mirror races in last pair; hard to adore.

Concealed

Game in victory and you really don't know how much the all-out effort may have taken out of her; she did take the overland route and has more speed than she just flashed; basically out to prove the 62-1 shocker in last was no fluke.

Take It Inside

A press and fade 8th the last time in this league; Delaware interloper lost heartbreaker in last but note she was 7 clear; the 9/4 place horse took a $25K N2L claimer at Laurel last Friday with a 76 Beyer; only beaten a half the last time she raced in a race under a mile; can't fault those that are a bit gun shy after 3 chalk flops in last 5. By Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Lighthouse Bay

She's a G1 winner (won the Prioress) and her G1 Test run wasn't bad at all; hey, those were some nice, nice gals who beat her; gets a significant drop for this and note her only prior local run resulted in a victory.

Maracuya

Dueled and fizzled in the G2 Delaware Oaks July 13 but maybe at this stage of the game routing isn't her forte; Nicks freshened her, brought her back at SAR Aug. 30 SPRINTING, with blinkers, and the result was a nice win; she beat some elders that day, too; looks like she's back on track and certainly that Beyer (93) makes her plenty scary.

Profetiza

Thought she was a real comer earlier this year; even Mott noted before the Broom Dance that a good effort there could earn her a shot at the G1 Alabama, so he had some lofty visions for her, too; well, things haven't quite worked now; now this expensive daugher of HOY A. P. Indy ($775K) looks to get back on track and Mott cuts her back to a sprint to see if that can snap her back to life; surely worked well since and at least she ran big (won) in her only local start and that was also the last time Lezcano was aboard, and he gets the call today; still, there are more questions than answers attached to this gal right now, aren't there?

Bridgehampton

Debut on BHP synthetic wasn't much, but then moved here, moved to dirt and viola!; she's a new gal; maiden win was nice but it was her 2nd in the G3 Victory Ride (just behind today's foe Baby J) that caught the eye; obvioulsy has tactical speed but can pass horses, too; that could come in handy here but she'll likely need another forward move if she's to win this - but hey, that ain't outta reach for a fairly inexperienced filly.

Baby J

Dueled and paid the price in the G1 Test at SAR Aug. 24; in her defense, that was a brutally tough spot and was also her first start in 2 months; prior run, a win in the G3 Victory Ride shows her a good fit with these, and it's nice to see a sharp :47.80B here Sept. 23 (2nd fastest 4f work of 55 that day); a return to top form makes her scary, but would also seem mandatory if she's to topple these. By Michael Hammersly

Race 9

Done Smoking

60 days since being outfinished by Eddy's Time at longer; seems that a well-timed ride will be needed to turn the tables to graduate; strong-human connections; the 29%-winning BEL-jockey-trainer combo since 2012 for a high-percentage turf barn; moves all the way inside so should be able to save ground then make 1 run.

Amber Morning

52 days since posting a field-best Beyer speed figure showing a massive 24-point 2nd-time out improvement; mild worktab for this and gets Johnny V back to ride who is just 1-for the last-18 for the trainer; clearly if can repeat latest would be hard to handle here.

Left Uppercut

Definitely expected more gate speed out of this one in last but did not fire from the gate then finished far back; has been very best on wet-racing conditions whether it be on turf or dirt; exits her lowest Beyer since March; is doing the rain dance for this.

Field Star

Long absence off the loss vs. the runner-up finisher who Beyered 46 in a next-out AQU-$12,500-maiden claiming graduation; trainer is 0-for the last-10 with runners 1st time in the barn; never finished better than 5th while racing at 30-1 odds or higher in every start; a tough call.

Chow Fun

Improving-Beyer pattern with her best race at longer than this; in the last attempt at today's distance on BEL WIdener Turf finishing a mild-rallying 4th; was defeated by some of these in recent starts so have her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Pie's First Lady

Her good gate speed displayed when finishing 2nd best to the 4-back winner who repeated in a SAR allowance with a 71 Beyer has been missing in recent races; stretches out beyond 7F for the 1st time today; did show a big late spark in latest when traveling the previous-longest distance of her career.

Uman Candy

Worked smartly on dirt for this but remains on grass with a massive-distance test off latest middle-moving fade; 0-for-6 sprint-to-route trainer since 2012 does not help the cause; off the recent a.m. drill on the main track may not mind this switched to dirt; still has to answer the stamina concerns.

Music Maid

Ran to the 27-1 debut odds when defeating 1 runner home; sheds weight while is very much in need of a massive-2nd-time wakeup call; the workout for this was not very enticing for an 0-for-14 route-to-sprint trainer since 2012.

Eddy's Time

60 days since latest big try and has been a new runner since stretched out; cutting back to 1 Mile adds to the appeal; faced good ones in the career debut; the winner and show finishers Beyered 84-49 in next-out GP-55K stakes and MTH-40K-maiden claiming wins.

Blue Z Gal

Sire is 12-for-165 with 1st-time starters; 0-for-53 with 1st-turf runners; is out of an 0-for-18 dam (38K) who did not race on grass; she produced 6 winners from 8 other foals to race with top earner 204K-Zukinikiki (5-for-23); 2 foals to race on grass are winless.

Quiet Kiss

Style change in latest but whether it's on the pace or rallying she will need a strong improvement off recent form to score here; the debut winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with a 69 Beyer; the trainer is just 2-for the last-120 with MSW starters.

As Well

Late runner could possibly need more yardage to see best form but owns her Beyer Top at 1 Mile; she was defeated by Pie's First Lady and also the 3-back winner who repeated in a SAR allowance with a 71 Beyer; must overcome today's ground-losing draw.

Destinys Mystery

Sire is 2-for-22 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an 0-for-17 grass dam (47K turf) who's only other foal to race on turf is 0-for-3 Prince Dylan; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 54 graduating in an FL-MSW event next out. By Art Gropper