Belmont: Closer Looks for October 19, 2013

Race 1

Sheriffa

Respectable debut run 3 weeks ago especially considering the extra-wide trip; her sire won a G2 and 662K while the dam won 1 of 3 and 40K; among the winning siblings is 158K earner Love Your Smile.

Front Cover Dream

Newcomer is among the first crop to race from Tippity Tap who was zero for 4 lifetime; the dam involved won 5 of 29 and 61K; among the winning siblings is 241K earner Marcianne; shows only a light breeze pattern.

Chicks and a Pig

Some upbeat workouts for this newcomer, daughter of G1 winner King's Bishop who netted 1.02 million (his progeny have scored in 85 out of 672 initial starts); the dam won 3 of 26 and 33K; sib to 110K earner Evan's Rocket.

Keen Katana

Fair a.m. moves for this beginner whose sire won the G1 Hopeful and 818K; descendants of City Zip are 80 for 520 as far as winning their first test; the dam never competed; there are no winning siblings to highlight.

Charming Eyes

Did not recover from a troubled start in her maiden voyage but returns with blinkers today; the sire won the G1 Forego and 616K; the dam won 7 of 22 and 77K; this is her sole foal to make it to the races.

The Lost Tigress

Note very fine breeze on the morning of 10/4; her sire won multiple G1s and 1.12 million; offspring of Henny Hughes have scored in 33 out of 211 debuts; the dam won 1 of 12 and 69K; sib to 22K earner Acadion Connection.

Aspree

Curious arrival from Finger lakes turned in a solid showing in an added money event last time out; returns to the original pilot and may prove dangerous if able to open up an early lead; likely to be overlooked in the wagering.

Cryptic Comet

Stayed on well behind a blowout winner last month; her sire won at the G2 level while banking 446K; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 57K earner Kash Kow Kaz; some strong half-mile drills earlier this month.

Mary's in Utopia

Although off the board each time, she has suffered through some troubled starts; equipment change can help her focus and the latest breeze over the training track reflected distinct improvement.

Lady Rhubarb

Vast improvement, pace-wise, in her Belmont debut and therefore is a playable item here; her sire won 3 of 20 and 1.04 million; the dam won 1 of 8 and 27K; among the winning siblings is 23K earner Goldenstatewarrior.

Lemme Rock

Pressed the issue when facing open company in her first attempt; her sire was undefeated, including score in the G1 Carter while notching 480K; the mom won 1 of 9 and 43K; sib to 62K earner Stoneridge.

Skye Saratoga

Made a strong middle move in her first run before tiring late; her sire won a G1 and 2.19 million while the dam was without a victory in 3 tries; among the winning siblings is 59K earner Brickhouse Baby.

Maybry's Fortune

Beaten favorite exits a claimer which featured soft middle fractions; her sire won a G3 and 322K while the dam won 5 of 17 and 116K; sib to 1.23 million earner and G2 winner Musket Man; difficult call because of this wide slot.

Lady Luciano

Her sire won a G1 and 454K in total; descendants of Frost Giant have scored in 4 of 29 initial starts; the dam won 6 of 28 and 93K; sib to 32K bankroller Solid Gold Victory; upgraed a bit in the latest training track breeze.

House Red

Progeny of Limehouse, who won 1.11 million including graded stakes success, have won 30 out of 214 debuts; the dam won 2 of 24 and 93K; among the winning siblings is 64K earner Offlee Crafty.

Sandy's Secret

See the second runner in this field for information about the same sire; the dam won 1 of 17 attempts and 32K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; shows an average work tab for the most part over the Big A surface.

Race 2

Daddy's Lil Saint

Came out firing to win her debut here Sept. 29; did it like a pro, too, biding her time and finishing well; that being said, the Beyer didn't come back all that hot (51); worked very nicely since at least; 1 of 2 sibs is Clear Pasaj (6 wins, $351K, 2 SWs, 3-time SP).

Canal Six

Maiden facing some winners, yes, but her 2 2nds at SAR to start her career show she's got abiliity; after all, she wasn't beaten all that far by Miss Narcissist (2 1/2 lengths), who she faces again here today; that being said, she does have to make up that ground on that gal; worked in solid steady fashion the past month, too; lone sib to race is Bella Muchacha (1 win, $19K).

Nutmeg

So was that romp at PRX a function of the slop she caught that day, softer foes or having a race under her belt?; well, maybe a bit of each; after all, she's got talent as she dueled and ran 4th in her SAR debut, and that came on dry land so she doesn't look like a mudlark; worked very nicely since and you have to like that Velazquez takes the call, too.

Champagne Ruby

Has something of which no one else in here can boast -a win over winners; while she broke her maiden on PID's synthetic track May 22 she just won an NY-bred stakes on dirt at FL a few weeks ago, so she's by no means just a synthetic specialist; this spot may not be significantly tougher and now she's shown versatility to boot; kin to City in the Clouds (7 wins, $262K, twice NY-bred SP).

Star Grazing

Maiden vs. winners, though she's flashed ability - ran into Artemis Agrotera in her debut at SAR Aug. 16 (2nd, beaten 11 3/4 lengths), and that gal came back to be 2nd in the G1 Frizette; then tried turf ot no avail here Sept. 11; back to dirt with 2 nice works in tow, though she's still got some questions to answer; 4 of 5 sibs are winners including Friend Or Foe (5 wins, $359K, 3 SWs) and Stolen Star (3 wins, $210K, 4-time SP).

Court Dancer

Probably the one to beat; looked super blasting NY-bred maidens in her bow at SAR Aug. 21 and that was enough to earn her a shot at the G2 Matron here Sept. 29; only ran 4th that day but was in no way disgraced as she was beaten just 2 3/4 lengths; takes a big drop today and that may be all it takes to get her back on track; 4 of 6 sibs are winners including City Spirit (7 wins, $207K).

Miss Narcissist

Debut at SAR wasn't much, but start No. 2 was awfully sweet; experience of that debut probably helped, as did the addition of blinkers as she showed much more speed; love that she since posted a bullet :59.80B here Oct. 12, too, so could be the light has gone on for her; 1 of 2 sibs is Ludo Bagman (1 win, $99K).

Race 3

Carolinian

Held on to beat some of these at a shorter trip in his return to dirt last time; colt draws inside again so expect his speed will be on display here as well and he did break his maiden at this distance over the local lawn last month; presence of other early interest means he's going to have to work hard from the bell here and that could make him weary late.

Fox Rox

Failed twice as the chalk at Saratoga but new shades looked to make all the difference in his huge Finger Lakes' Aspirant score third time out; guy who crushed him subsequently returns in this spot at well and he does seem to want to be forwardly placed which could be a crowded spot today.

Sing the Dream

Took plenty of money and showed good speed before backing out of it and finishing behind one of these first out at Saratoga; colt went on to crush weaker foes in 2 tries out of town so maybe he deserves another shot on this circuit, but his game is speed so he's going to have to work pretty hard from the bell in this spot.

So Lonesome

Got going too late in his first with winners here but was running on pretty well to finish between a couple of the guys he'll catch again in this spot; gelding should love the added ground and he will get plenty of pace to set up his kick today; looks like he could be set to take a big step forward in his stakes debut.

Sol the Freud

He's another speedster and he'll return from the freshening with a couple of solid local main track breezes in tow; colt gets a top pilot for the stretchout to 7 panels but his regular rider opts to get on the outside drawn chalk in this one; given the pace scenario have to question how much he'll have left late in the lane.

Empire Dreams

Displayed a rating gear after encountering trouble in his local debut score a few weeks back and now he'll get Lasix for his first crack with winners; he'll move towards the outsde for this one so maybe that allows him to relax even more early and though the waters get much deeper here his pedigree says that he'll handle the added real estate.

Captain Toews

Broke his maiden in the claiming ranks before getting caught in a wide spot over an inside favoring local course and finishing well off some of these in his first with winners; added ground can't hurt this off the pace type and maybe a more fair racetrack helps him get closer, but it still appears as if he's got a handful of lengths to improve in order to factor in the outcome.

Wired Bryan

G2 SW sprinter has dominated each of the statebred events in which he has competed, most recently crushing one of his main foes from the Finger Lakes fence; gray's lone poor effort came over a wet track in the G1 Hopeful upstate and he showed solid early foot before backing up in that one; his last number lays over the field so no one's gonna get rich backing him, but he draws a solid stalking post and the pilot aboard for his maiden score returns today; figures tough to down.

Race 4

Miss Valentine

Late runner gets in with a positive 3-pound weight swing off the half-length loss vs. Willet; last win at longer; her best Beyer of the year occurred at today's distance when just missing to Willet when giving that one 3 pounds and gets 3 pounds here; BEL dirt is her favorite oval and should be flying strongly in deep stretch after saving every inch of ground from the rail draw.

Galiana

Midpack runner's lone race at today's distance or longer was on turf and a career-low Beyer speed figure; latest-DEL-career best speed figure looks better since the show runner Beyered 73 in a next-out LRL alw. win; off the 2-back outrun line vs. WIllet have her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Shesabronxbomber

August, 2011, a 5th-place finish on SAR dirt in a MSW event was the last time she ran this short of a distance; late runner rallied from next-to-last in most recent showing an improvement off the 1st-off-the-claim fade 2-back; seems up against it to get up in time at 7F.

Kimmies Lucky Star

Deep closer figures to be last early then hopes the speed falls apart late; the 2-back win looks better now since the show runner Beyered 71 in her next-out BEL-MSW win; the 3-back runner-up graduated next out in a SAR-MSW race with a 74 speed figure.

Cluster of Stars

Perfect filly projects to be loose on an easy lead like she has in each of her last 4 starts; exits a co-field best Beyer on a wet-main track but she fires on anything; the February win looks better since the show runner Beyered 77 in a next-out AQU-73K stakes win; try to catch me.

Willet

Doing the rain dance noting her career-best Beyer when winning this race last year by more than 9 lengths in the mud; last BEL-fast start was a last-place finish; win rider from that career-Top speed figure race lands on Vicki's Dancer here; negative 3-pound weight swing off the half-length decision defeating Miss Valetnine..

Here's Zealicious

Just 1 other race during career racing at least today's distance was an exacta finish; 66 days since one of the few wet-main track defeats of her career; was defeated by the runner-up finisher in last who Beyered 77 in a next-out LRL-optional-claiming win; the 2-back winner Beyered 88 in a next-out AQU-73K stakes victory; also entered Sunday in a PRX 48K allowance at shorter 6.5F; on the lead in 5 of 9 career races but last win was from off the pace and likely chases Cluster of Stars from the gate if in.

Vicki's Dancer

Last dirt start was not very enticing; was claimed off a good-turf effort but was outfinished at today's distance; projects to stalk the speed from the ground-losing widest draw; has been at her best at shorter than 7F which is the primary concern today.

Race 5

Pie's First Lady

She's been beaten by a few of today's rivals in her two most recent starts and she's probably going to need to show up with a career best effort to see her number posted on top after this one is run; she's a possible early pace factor, and she's going out for a barn having a strong meeting, but prefer to look toward others.

Stock Fund

Have to respect the fact that this stakes placed miss is plenty fast enough to be competitive at this level of competition, but when considering her for the top spot, it's tough to ignore her 22-0-11-4 race record; she figures to be a tough one to keep out of the mix, but it might be best to limit her to a spot underneath in the exotics.

Lloyd Harbor

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 12% of his turf starters, and G3 stakes placed dam won 2 of 18 starts for 87k, including 2 of 17 turf starts for 86k; it looks like they've stepped up her training in the month of October.

Cake N Cookies

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 10% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to Mynavigator (11-68, 241k, including 3 of 20 turf starts for 138k); she's making her career debut for a capable first-out barn.

Gloria Victoria

Sire wins with approximately 17% of his turf starters and minor stakes placed dam won 7 of 15 starts for 107k, and she didn't make a turf start; runner up from latest won next out at Sar on 8/31 going 5 1/2f vs. MSW rivals with a 76 Beyer; speedy filly has appeal in her turf debut while going out for top connections.

Echluath

Her best finish to date was earned in an off-the-turf event two starts back at Saratoga, something to keep in mind if this race has to be moved to the main track, and she's shown a little something in her three turf attempts; perhaps the addition of blinkers can help sharpen her up.

Rosalie's Pleasure

She's run well in back-to-back starts since moving into this barn and she's finished close behind today's rival Stock Fund in those races; lightly raced 3-year-old might be ready for her best effort to date while making only her third start of the year.

Rock N Cozy

She's another in here who is capable of getting herself into the mix on her best day, but like Stock Fund, she's a tough one to trust with the win dollar; it's tough to recommend her for something more than a minor award.

Threecrackerchile

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and minor stakes winning dam won 3 of 12 starts for 100k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Kinesiology (1-8, 43k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 42k); this barn isn't best known for first-out success but that October 2 workout hints at ability.

Jennys Creek

She's yet another in here who has had many chances and who seems to be quite content to settle for a minor award; it looks like Luzzi might have opted to pilot another in here, but Maragh has been aboard for a couple of her better efforts.

Royal Jest

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; a few of her workouts appear to be solid and it looks like they tightened the screws in her latest move.

Live Life Fast

Bernardini has been a poor influence as a turf sire but this filly has run well enough in her first three starts to be taken seriously in this spot; like to see her making back-to-back starts for the first time in her career and Lezcano does get his share of live calls from this barn.

Peggy Virginia

She needs to see a scratch from the main body of the race in order to draw in but she has some early speed to employ and she goes out for a sharp barn; lightly raced filly is plenty eligible to have more to show us.

Hillbilly Hula Gal

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 10 of 57 starts for 158k, including 0-for-3 over turf; she'll need to show up with an improved performance in her turf debut in order to contend.

Race 6

Sir Maurice

Inside again off an improved race but seldom adore runners in this league after they have missed for a tag; dam was unraced; 2 of 4 siblings won and top earner Breathaway was a triple grass winner and banked over $100K; a slice may be the ceiling here.

Gentle Jim

Plenty of lick, very little stick at this point; he's lost ground in the lane in 10 of 11; no grass success in the family but kin Cluster of Stars took multiple Grade 2s, banked over $450K; far too speedy not to take seriously.

Bottleofredorwhite

Freud Freud about 13% with first-time turfers in a 231-runner sample; was 2nd a half in debut at 2 at The Curragh at 6 furlongs on a yielding course, graduated there at 3 at about a mile on turf; educated when just a brief threat to kick it off but the race came back okay as the show horse took a MSW next out, 6th finisher took a maiden $20K claimer and the winner was 2nd beaten over 4 in a $14K optional; 4 for 23 dam won at 2, earned nearly $90K, never turfed; both sibs won, the one that tried grass was third in best turf result; has a right to run better.

Raglin River

Three solid efforts since being claimed but he may be best when up for sale; 2 siblings tried grass to no avail; caught in traffic last time, a clear trip and it could be lights out.

One Red Cat

One Nice Cat one for 23 with first-time turfers; sire took a stakes, won 4 of 28, banked almost $165K, didn t run at 2; 2 for 10 dam never turfed; lone full bro to race won once, lost only turf out; best races came when offered for sale.

Magical Salute

Performing Magic 3 for 34 with first-time turfers; Grade 2 winning sire did not race at 2, won in 5th start at about 5 furlongs on grass, earned over $700K; dam was unraced; one of 3 siblings won and that one cashed twice in the minors and not on grass; not sold on chances.

River Knight

Sunriver 2 for 73 with debuters, 0 for 46 with first-time turfers; Grade 1 winning sire cashed at 2, won thrice on grass, banked over $800K; 2 for 26 dam was out of the money in only turf out; lone kin one for 17 and 0 for 4 on grass; no moves beyond 4 furlongs.

Seljuk

Gelding has had his chances and has missed a number of times for a tag; backers can point to the fact there is a double turf winners in the tree that banked over $100K; long overdue to hit paydirt.

Chang's Secret

A non-factor in the only sprint try; connections would like to see him start acting like top kin Mrs. M, who won twice on turf, banked over $180K; look for him late if at all.

Alyish

Eltish 12 for 111 with first-time turfers and about 14% debuters in a 223-runner grid; sire won in second start, was a Group 2 winner, handled grass; 3 for 10 dam never turfed; 2 of 4 sibs won, one cashed once on grass, the other banked nearly $150K; she debuts vs. boys.

Harsh

Songandaprayer about 7% with first-time grass runners in a 329-runner study; sire was unbeaten in 2 starts at 2, earned almost $400K, never turfed; 2 for 8 dam was dirt route only; 2 of 3 sibs won including 4-time grass winner and near $190K earner Subtle; could be on the muscle considering layoff and the hood.

Sayaprayerforme

Can never dismiss sub :22 speed but there are obvious stamina concerns; there are others in here with designs on the top; not sure the race sets up all that great for him.

Chasintheblues

No kick in the dirt race but the Beyers are going in the right direction; barn used to do it with volume but they have been solid this year with limited starters; half of dam's 4 wins came on grass; 5 of 6 siblings won including Dirge, a 6 for 15 grass only near $175K player; major threat if he suits up.

Brass Pear

Boxcars every time and is looking at the same fate; at least there is a grass winner in the family; needs a total reversal of fortune.

Escape to the Moon

Over 5 clear when just a tad short to kick it off; stakes placed 5 for 20 dam banked nearly $185K; lone full bro to race Towering Moon took 2 of 6, earned almost $180K; the top ticket if race comes off the grass.

Race 7

Irish Jade

1st race at 7F was the graduation on less-than-firm green and twice on that type of soft-grass oval landed him exacta finishes; career-best Beyer speed figure was following a 57-day layoff but is back in just 28 days for this; declining-Beyer pattern since the career-Top Beyer at much longer than this.

Uncle Mitcho

Lone win at a longer distance when racing midpack which is his best style; in latest did not sustain his run vs. Slimshady while 2-back posted a career-best Beyer when flying late; the rider from last pair his 2-best Beyers sides with Sun Worshipper for this.

Lord of Love

Lone win racing on a wet-main track so he is doing the rain dance for this to be washed off the weeds; today marks the longest race of 2013 while he was screaming out for more yardage at SAR over the summer; in last he raced wide and evenly from post 9 but should be able to save a lot more ground breaking from this inside slot today.

Knockher Off

Been a new runner since blinkers were added including the 2-back co-field best Beyer; latest marked his longest-stamina test ever which produced a middle move before faltering; he comes right back at 7F and obviously off last start appears to be at a very-questionable distance; the workout on dirt for this was not very inspiring.

Slimshady

Troubled-show finish in this same spot and distance 16 days ago posting a career-best Beyer; a last-to-1st winner 3-back he needs the speed to falter in deep stretch to score; trainer began this BEL-fall meet on an 0-for-8 and wins just 3% on turf since 2012.

Professor Chaos

Late runner was screaming out for more yardage in last but remains at 7F; lone win at 1.5 longer than this but exits a career-best Beyer so some hope he can pass tired rivals and land a major share; is in with his lightest-weight assignment since January for a 4%-winning turf trainer since 2012.

Soul House

Lone grass race saw him race on the lead at today's distance on BEL-Widener turf; his lone win was the debut score from well off the pace but exits a career-low Beyer where he stalked the pace then folded; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 92 in a next-out SAR-optional-claiming victory.

Sun Worshipper

Midpack graduate at shorter was outfinished by Campogiovanni at today's 7F distance 2-back; simply been a new runner since Lasix was added however the workout for this was mild and the 1-for-14 repeat trainer suggests we take a wait and see approach for a win wager.

Madam I'm Adam

Lone win was from right off the pace hoping not to bounce here off a career-best Beyer following a 52-day absence; comes back in just 21 days for this; another wide draw for him and a ground-losing trip in store; good sign the rider of all 3 in-the-money finishes and the win stays here.

Campogiovanni

Late rush 34 days ago a co-field-best Beyer graduating in a key race at today's distance on the BEL-Widener grass; the runner-up and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 79-74 in next-out BEL-MSW wins; barn only wins 13% with similar-layoff runners while a major class test to face winners for the 1st time.

Captain Gaughen

Winner with a late run in May fresh but flashed speed off a similar layoff in last a last-place finish and posting his lowest Beyer of the year at today's distance on BEL-Widener green; was edged by the 3-back show finisher who won next out in a BEL allowance with an 85 Beyer; would be a surprise off latest.

Race 8

Effie Trinket

She looked pretty good beating a bunch of these going a bit further in the local statebred stake last month; sophomore draws inside and has at times shown that she's handy enough to put this inside draw to good use; she's won 3 straight over the course and looms a big threat to make in 4 in a row here today; one to beat.

Sally's Dream

She'll make her fourth start at the current stand here after getting in her best gear too late behind a slow clip at the trip a couple of weeks back; filly is another who owns 3 local sod scores and her positional foot should help her sit a good spot from this inside draw as well; wasn't beaten that much after finding herself on the front end in her lone stakes try upstate, though she did finish behind some of the gals she'll see again here in that one; minor award.

Inimitable Romanee

Gets a switch to Velazquez after just missing as the chalk behind a couple of these in the slow paced Hettinger last month; gray fires a good shot every time and has hit the board in each of her 6 local sod spins, but just doesn't seem to like to win; capable on her best, but prefer to beat her on the win end.

Lady's Lunar Luck

Finshed less than 3 lengths behind the rail filly here when off the board in the Hettinger; she was returning less than 3 weeks off a career best Beyer score in that one, though, and maybe the slight cut back could play to her benefit in a field that looks to feature a similar pace setup; price should be right.

Shakeira

Took all the money while just missing as the chalk in her local return to a filly who returns in this heat as well; mare had some pace and trip issues upstate and her top pilot will stick with her here, but given her style it looks as if she'll again be running against the pace dynamics of the heat; consider.

Harbor Mist

Made the lead through slow splits it the Hettinger and was still worn down late at that 9 panel trip; there doesn't look to be anyone to go with her in this spot, either, if she wants the top and maybe the shorter trip helps, but there are several pressers in here who figure to be ready to attack turning for home; one to catch.

Dreaming of Cara

Four year old gets back to the lawn after proving little threat to the top 2 in the main track stake a few weeks back; nice to see Rosario take interest, but it's been a long time since this gal has seen the winner's circle; have to side with others on the win end.

Mystic City

Moves back to the lawn after facing open company stakes runners in her last 2 starts at Presque Isle Downs; mare showed some speed on the lawn early in the Saratoga meeting, but she wasn't able to prove a threat after setting soft splits in that one; maybe she finds herself a little closer early in a field without a lot of speed and she is a 3 time course winner.

Frosty Bay

Sophomore was freshened after her second straight stakes score over her peers; she'll tackle older runners in this spot while stretching back out to a trip at which she's scored in the past; while pace may be a question and she hasn't run as fast as some of these, she is an improving 3 year old and her drill last week suggests she's on her toes for the comebacker.

Wholelottashakin

Failed to last after making the lead in the lane in the Hettinger and now she'll move to the extreme outside slot; she's a .500 career hitter over the local sod, is certainly a solid fit at this level and she does possess some positional foot that could help her ovecome the draw while cutting back to a trip that should benefit her; contender.

Mischief Maker

MTO hasn't won in 9 months but she's been keeping pretty solid company on the mian track this year; she's got the early interest to stay involved from the bell and did earn a nice number when third at this one turn trip 4 starts back; against a turf meant bunch, she looks to be the one to beat if this gets rained off.

Race 9

Palace

Moved into stakes company for the first time and he finished full of run to beat Grade 1 winner and Breeders' Cup Sprint runnerup The Lumber Guy; barn is having a strong meet and Rice has solid stats with horse returing in this time period; should be an honest-enough pace for him to work with and he doesn't mind the rail; hard not to like a horse that's won half of his starts; big shot.

Night Maneuver

Back to a sprint after just his second try going a middle distance and the past five years Contessa has a 13% strike rate with horses shortening up; he may have bounced in Palace's win after posting a 105 Beyer Speed Figure in his previous race; sharp work Oct. 10 adds to his appeal; looks like a serious player.

Mine Over Matter

Homebred won this race last year coming off a shorter layoff and his sharp set of works suggest he is ready for another big effort this year; Hushion has strong stats with horses coming back in this time period and this guy rarely runs a bad race; horse that beat him in his latest was eased in his next start but he went into the race with four straight wins and is just shy of earning $1 million; the pick.

B Shanny

Second from Hushion probably gained some coinfidence in his easy win at Finger Lakes in his latest but he is going to have to step it up to win here; horse he beat earned a 78 Beyer when he finished second in a $20K optional starter race at FL in his next start; other speed makes his task difficult and he is gong to have to deal with his stablemate who beat him both times they met; looking elsewhere.

Cay to Pomeroy

Nice win in his latest but this is a substantially tougher spot and in all of his wins he was able to clear early; can't see that happening with speed drawn directly inside and outside of him; the 85 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in his latest win is his career best and it is going to take something a lot higher to win this; prefer others.

Moonlight Song

6-year-old homebred has only started 10 times in his career but all three of his races this year have been solid; horse he beat in his latest came back to beat open company in a first-level allowance race in his next start with a 94 Beyer; he's versatile and could get a nice trip from a stalking position; back with NY-breds but this is a pretty salty group of proven stakes winners; exotics possibility.

Readytodefer

His second to Saginaw in the Hollie Hughes would put him in the mix but he came back with a dull effort as the heavy chalk in his next start and then went on the shelf; hard to like him off what he showed in his first start back but the blinkers are going on and it is encouraging to see Velazquez accept the call; nonetheless, he could be up against it with other speed in the field.

Race 10

Hear the Footsteps

He's finished second in back-to-back stakes races prior to this and he chased a couple of today's key rivals through the stretch in his latest outing; he hasn't run a bad race all year and he merits respect as a contender against these.

Compliance Officer

Maybe this multiple stakes winner has lost his best step but he's still capable of giving a good account of himself against competition of this caliber and it is interesting to see blinkers going on again for this; look for him to sit a comfortable trip after breaking from an inside post and be in good position to strike turning for home; note that he won this event in 2011.

Idle American

His best race appears to be a cut or two below the level of the top contenders in here and he was beaten by a number of today's rivals just two starts ago; late running type figures to have a difficult time trying to reel these in through the lane.

Mission Approved

Grade 1 winner is making his 9-year-old racing debut and he hasn't made a start since November 2011; maybe he can get himself involved in the running early on, but it's tough to expect him to stay in the hunt through the lane while making his first start in nearly two years against a tough bunch.

Barrel of Love

Respect the fact that a number of his better races have been run over the Belmont Park turf but he's never produced a performance that is strong enough to suggest that he can jump up on the top contenders on his best day; he looks like more of an outsider.

Lubash

Grade 3 winner can be tough to deal with facing New York-bred stakes competition and he's looking to reverse the decision on a number of rivals that have gotten the better of him in recent starts; have to view him in the light of a top contender.

Majestic Raffy

He hasn't run poorly in his attempts facing statebred stakes competition, but he will have to be ready to run the race of his life to prove to be the one in this spot; perhaps a minor award is within reach, but looking in another direction for the top spot.

King Kreesa

Grade 3 winner was in raging form between June and August, and even though his latest race off of a layoff might be a concern, that was in a G1 going 1 1/2m; prefer to just ignore his latest outing and respect his chances based on what he was doing prior to that.

Fox Rules

His turf form hasn't been strong enough to help give him a competitive look against these and he might be signed on with the hope that this race has to be moved to the main track, and in that case, his chances can be upgraded.

Kharafa

You have to go back many starts to find the last time that he failed to fire and he's proven that he can keep up with company like this in his stakes attempts prior to this; he owns the ability to adapt to any early pace scenario and Castellano is looking to go three-for-three aboard this runner.

Notacatbutallama

He carries multiple graded stakes winning credentials with him and it will be interesting to see how he handles facing older rivals for the first time after a steady diet of open 3-year-old stakes competition; not willing to count him out of it, but others entice more.

Abilio

Multiple stakes placed gelding is seeking his first 1-2-3 finish of 2013 and he's been beaten by many of today's rivals in his seven starts this year; it's tough to give him a favorable push against competition of this caliber.

Jonrah

He looks like another in this spot who will need to find a way to step up with the race of his life in order to contend; it's probably going to take an effort that earns him a Beyer Speed Figure at least 10 points higher than his previous best.

Sandyinthesun

The winner of this race seems likely to earn a figure in the mid-upper 90's, and this gelding sports a career best figure of 81; he lacks early speed and he's eligible to be outrun throughout if he gets to go.

Hidden Vow

He's 1-for-19 lifetime and this has to be considered an extremely tough spot for him to be going after his second career win; respect the fact that his form has been much improved since being returned from a layoff four starts ago, but this is a difficult assignment for him; 2nd call for Alvarado.

Most Happy Fella

He'll command respect as a top contender if this race has to be moved to the main track and he owns enough early speed to get himself involved in the running right from the break; multiple stakes placed gelding is the 2nd call for Solis.

Race 11

Bigger Is Bettor

Ran poorly in this last year (6th, beaten 26 1/2 lengths) but he comes into this year's edition a sharper horse; that being said, he also comes here having chased a few of these in his last pair so could it this level is just a smidge too much for him unless he does, as he did in the July 22 Evan Shipman, reach back and come up with a biggie, hmmmmm?

Spa City Fever

No match for what-seems-to-be million time winner Caixa Eletronica in the Duck Dance here Oct. 6; back in vs. NY-breds and maybe that will help; trouble is, a few of these have handled him in recent months; good news is some of his best work has come here and he's got the versatility to give rider Cohen some options.

Moneyinyour Pocket

Not only looked good whipping rivals at FL Sept. 21 but that run was flattered (2 he beat that day came right back to win); now has won 3 of his last 4; that being said, all that came at FL and not only was his only prior local try not much but he's also asked to step up in class for the privilege; and geez, could he have worked much slower than he did at FL Oct. 7 (4fs in :52.80B, slowest of 5 that day), hmmmm?

Awesome Vision

Toss that 'Cole try last time (first time on turf and apparently that ain't his game) and you're left with a bunch of nice main-track outings including some good efforts vs. some of these; heck, he won an NY-bred stakes at SAR Aug. 16 at this trip over a few of these so he's got the oomph; return to dirt may be just what the Dr. ordered to get him back on track...so long as that 'Cole turf debacle didn't take something out of him.

Zetterholm

They thought enough of him in the spring of 2012 to try the G1 Preakness (4th) and G2 Dwyer (4th); however, he was then gone 14 months; came back to be a so-so 5th in an NY-bred stakes at SAR at this trip Aug. 16, well behind today's foes Awesome Vision and Bigger Is Bettor; at least you can say he needed the race and it's sure nice to see no panicky drop and some good works since.

Warrioroftheroses

Nice bounce back in the Governor Day at DEL Sept. 14 (2nd, beaten a head) after that dud at MTH Aug. 10; that shows the MTH race was more an abberation; ample speed to be in it from the start and note, too, his only prior local start resulted in a victory - though he likely needs a career-best if he's to deal with these.

Saratoga Snacks

9 starts, 9 top-3 finishes and today he doesn't have to deal with Saginaw and Lunar Victory, 2 of the 3 guys who have beaten him and likely the 2 best NY-breds of the past couple seasons; speed to be in it from the start and while the bulk of his work has been sprinting/miling note a fine 2nd in this last year when he handled the trip just fine, thank you.

Readtheprospectus

No way to knock a horse who's won all 5 starts this year and 7 straight ovberall; won at this trip, too, so the distance is no problem; ample tactical speed but he's no need-the-lead type, and that should serve him well as 'Snacks is almost surely quicker; figures to stalk that guy and will try and go and get him; he's yet to beat a horse as good as 'Snacks but he fires every time and the Beyers say that he continues to steadily trend north; huge threat.