Belmont: Closer Looks for October 18, 2013

Race 2

Pure Sensation

Turned in a pair of strikingly similar efforts at Saratoga and is an obvious true contender today; the grey's sire, a pure sprinter, won multiple G1s and 669K; the dam won 9 of 29 and 496K; this is her only foal to compete.

Dynamic Chime

Newcomer was sired by G1 turf type Red Giant who amassed 1.09 million and whose progeny have won 3 of 23 debuts; the dam involved was unraced; winning siblings include 175K earner Cola de Pino.

Tony B

Sheds the blinkers after a bumpy journey when stretching out for the first time; his sire won the G2 Remsen and 583K overall; the dam won 1 of 4 and 22K; sib to 311K earner Safe Trip; very fine training track breeze 6 days ago.

Mendocino Joe

Beginner hails from excellent sire Malibu Moon who won 1 of 2 and 33K (his offspring have scored in 101 out of 708 initial starts); the dam won 1 of 5 and 45K; sib to 11K bankroller Right Charlie.

Flat Jack

Moved wide into swift fractions first time out, an effort that will be misinterpreted; his sire won 4 of 6 and 148K; the dam won 1 of 14 and 17K; among the winning siblings is 181K earner Ready and Tough; the value play and the selection.

Flying Joe

Flashed good early speed in all 3 starts; must avoid an immediate confrontation with Pure Sensation and his latest blowout over the training track was superior; interesting item who should offer a much better price today than in the last run.

Niche

Quit early in his only performance but the sloppy track could have been the primary reason; the sire won a G1 and 570K; the dam won 2 of 14 and 107K; among the winning siblings is 118K earner Brampton; strong half-mile breeze on 10/13.

Race 3

Mister Pippit

He hasn't run a bad race since being claimed by these connections and this has to be considered a favorable spot for his first start since the end of August; runner-up from latest returned to win next out at Lrl on 10/5 going 1m over turf vs. 32k OPC's with an 84 Beyer; Castellano has won with 12 of 37 (32%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Yellow Mountain (IRE)

In a race where the winner figures to earn a Beyer Speed Figure in the mid-to-upper 80's, his top figure is a 78, and that alone might be a reason to look in another direction; late running type appears to be in a tough spot.

Unitarian

He beat today's rival Mr. Jenney two starts back when breaking his maiden and it might be worth noting that he was making his first start wearing blinkers that day; he looks like he's going to appreciate getting back over turf today and top connections help add appeal.

Finn's Quest

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 17 starts for 98k, and she didn't make a turf start; winner from latest won next out at PrM on 6/1 going 1m in a 60k stakes with a 96 Beyer; this looks like a pretty tough spot for his first turf start.

Selection Sunday

Have to respect his consistent approach to the game but he does appear to be much more likely to settle for a minor award than to go after the top prize; Lezcano has won with 4 of 10 mounts for this barn in 2013.

Ampersand

His late running style makes him vulnerable to a slow early pace and there's a chance that the early tempo in this event won't heat up all that much; that said, he usually shows up and runs his race and his best effort is strong enough to prove to be a threat in this spot.

Best Actor

He's only making his second start for this barn and this is an outfit that can be live with a fresh horse; he does need to step it up over what he's been doing lately to get the better of the top contenders in here, but he's a little interesting now that this barn has had more time to work with him.

Indy Sea

From the standpoint of race shape, he has a little bit of appeal; it looks like he might be able to grab the early advantage and set a comfortable early pace; he was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his latest outing, but perhaps a tactical advantage can help him turn the tables on those foes in this one.

Lure of the South

He's been in good form since being returned from a layoff three races back at Saratoga, and even though he hasn't gotten the job done in any of those races, it's safe to say that he's been outrunning his odds; at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Formulaforsuccess

He made his debut for this barn a winning one in his latest outing, and even though it might be worth noting the presence of Castellano aboard another in here, he appears to be well meant with Rosario getting the call; feel that he deserves top contender status.

Mr. Jenney

Relatively lightly raced 3-year-old put together a nice run to break his maiden in his latest outing and maybe this half-brother to multiple G1 winner Mrs. Lindsay (4-10, $1.2 million, including 1-for-1 over turf in North America for 621k) is ready to take his game to another level.

Race 5

Chrisandlorisposse

One of his better performances was at at the straightaway mile and that was via the turf-to-dirt method; may show much more early speed with this surface switch but must not get involved in a duel with Privatize, one of the few in this field with a decent first gear.

Awesome Heart

Tries blinkers for the first time after showing little firepower on the grass; maintains a top-notch rider and in his last main track effort, the gelding ran into a quality group at Monmouth; should offer good betting value.

Brandy's Big Guy

Yet to earn an exacta finish after all this time, it is doubtful that this is his breakthrough race; the 5-year-old has shown only modest rallying kick and has tried the special weight class only once before; cannot recommend for the top spot.

Saltine Warrior

Game to maintain the place in his last run over the lawn and he should be within striking range against this caliber; improved in his latest workout over the deep training track at Saratoga and has legitimate money chances.

Privatize

Looks like a serious candidate today, rain or shine (although he probably would prefer the former); exits a key affair and is rounding to his top performance level; dangerous if clearing the inside speed and if the middle fractions are commonplace.

Jesses Giant Dunk

Beaten favorite moves to a wider slot for the first time and that could be a strong catalyst; he actually finished in front of Bernardo 2 back and would likely move up over a fast track for this assignment; respect.

Onecats Chance

After a promising first run at Finger Lakes, he came up empty when trying the green for the first time; his sire won 4 of 28 starts and 163K; the dam won 1 of 15 and 13K; among the winning siblings is 23K earner Betty's Chance; generous odds are assured.

Cat Man Fu

His comeback race did not show much firepower and he has been granted far too many chances; best lifetime effort was over the Big A inner dirt and he cannot be endorsed until racing returns there; pass until further notice.

Race 6

My Bella Beauty

Declining-Beyer speed figure pattern since the 3-back stalking win at a longer distance which occurred following a 65-day layoff which why latest with 59 days off was disappointing at today's distance on BEL Inner Turf; troubled vs. the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 76 in her next-out SAR-optional-claiming win.

Karakorum Elektra

Won 1st off-the-claim in July but not much run since then; her field-best Beyer was June, 2009, gate-to-wire at today's distance on BEL-Inner Turf; latest win was from off the pace and in latest did not offer any gate speed; June, '10, was the last time she made the lead which has been her best game throughout career.

Bullet Baby

Exits her best Beyer since the trainer change setting the pace at longer; she likes to be forwardly placed sitting just off the speed in 2nd in her latest win; would have to avenge the SAR loss to Revenue who follows her here; view as a pace presence.

Matching Skies

Only grass win was January, 2012, in a GP-5F-MSW event rallying from 9th; her last win saw her close from 5th so needs a pace metldown to score; scored on fast dirt 1st off the claim so would not mind this moved to a fast-main track; has been way off best form in recent races; the 2-back winner made it 5 in a row in a MTH-optional claimer with a 95 Beyer.

Revenue

9 weeks since claimed for the 2nd straight start off high-win percentage trainers which is not a good win angle; 2-back winner rallied from 8th at shorter with a career-best Beyer noting that win was 2nd time back off a similar layoff so expecting her to need today's start off the bench.

Lady Gracenote

Last turf start was July, 2011, a 5th-place finish on SAR sod at 1M and 1-16th; AQU-MSW turf win was April, '10, at 1M and 16th; more than 7 months idle for a high-percentage long-layoff barn; the show runner from last Beyered 90 in her next-out AQU-73K stakes win; she defeated the 5th-place finisher a next-out 78 speed figure CT-handicap winner.

Decennial

Has not raced this short of a distance since her AQU-Inner Dirt Feb. 2011 career debut a 6th-place finish; deep closer raced too close to the pace in last noting her last win was a rally from 10th; entered Thursday in BEL 6th as a 15-1 morning-line entry at 1M and 1-8th on turf; the 2-back winner repeated in a SAR-optional claimer with an 85 Beyer.

Rain Forest

Has never attempted this short of a distance during career; stalked to win latest when claimed by a 26%-winning 1st-off-the-buy barn; scored off a 52-day layoff now back in just 19 days later which is a concern; exits a career-best Beyer while the workout for this was not very enticing; the 2-back show runner Beyered 76 in her next-out SAR-optional-claiming win.

Baal Perazim

18th attempt was the charm sitting just off the pace to graduate while meeting winners for the 1st time is often any runner's toughest assignment; latest looks better since the runner-up finisher from last earned her diploma next out in a 16K-maiden claimer with a 67 Beyer.

American Kitty

Have to go back to July to see a bad race on her form; fires on any surface; last looks better on dirt as the winner repeated in a PRX-optional claimer with an 86 Beyer; just missed on dirt the last time sent 6F; last win was rallying from 5th and if runs back to that career-best Beyer will be tough to hold off late here.

Natalie Victoria

January was the last time sent 6F; Main Track Only entry was also entered Oct. 17 BEL 6 as an MTO at even-money on the morning line at 1M and 1-16th; this event is much shorter; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 76 in her next-out BEL-optional claiming win.

Queen Nine

Won a key race with a new career-best speed figure defeating the runner-up, 4th and 6th-place finishers from last who Beyered 76-64-43 in next-out BEL-20K and 16K claimers along with a LRL-5K claimer; MTO's last win was right on the lead and expect her as the one to catch if in.

Lion D N A

Claimed off a career-best Beyer 2-back then ran well in defeat when expected to win as the heavy-betting choice; wanted no parts of a wet-main track 3-back when testing the winner who repeated in a MNR-100K event with an 81 Beyer; MTO figures to sit just off Queen Nine then hopes to wear that one down in deep stretch.

Wildcat Thunder

MTO defeated 2 runners combined in 3 races off the May claim; her lone BEL dirt start was dismal and is an outsider here off that loss; the 2-back winner repeated in a MTH-7K claimer with a 61 Beyer; sheds weight in with her lowest assignment since November.

Race 7

Isn'tlovejustgrand

Wasn't beaten much behind a couple of these when stretched out to this trip and raised to the level for his first off this barn's claim; 5 year old hasn't won in a while and he does settle for quite a few minor awards which looks to be his ceiling today.

Tug of War

Cuts back to sprunt while moving back in with statebreds; he crushed his foes the last time he stepped at the level on the inner, but have to question whether he really wants to run over this footing; working well and Castellano takes the call for an outfit that knows how to get the most out of its surface runners.

Ziptronic

Held on to score at the level when stretched out to this trip a few weeks back; 7 year old is a 4 time local course winner and he has fired a good shot in all but one of his starts this season but there is other speed in here so he'll either need to work hard from the bell or change those last out tactics that were key to each of his 2 recent wins; contender.

Bug Juice

First part of the entry has been idle since holding on to wire his rivals at the level over the Saratoga main track; each of his turf tries was ok and he's shown he doesn't need the lead to fire which is a big plus with other lick signed on; dangerous repeat threat first time off the claim by a sharp outfit that's going well in here.

Towering Moon

Took well to the lawn while running down a quick clip in his return from 5 months on the shelf and he did have some early trouble on the stretchout to 2 turns at the level upstate; maybe the return to one turn racing helps as the barn does nice work with the move and there is some pace in here; encouraging to see Lezcano take the call.

Hyman Roth

Drew the Spa fence in his first crack at the level and after encountering trouble did show some late interest; like the way he was abe to track and score at the trip over a heavy local course earlier in the year and he draws in the middle of plenty of lick; if he's able to rate again he could outrun his price in this spot.

Thunder Harbor

Gelding has a lot of early foot and he'll return to the local sod after failing to offer much resistance at odds on at Finger Lakes; he draws outside some of the speed in here and maybe he's able to relax a bit early, but it looks as if he just wants to go and that wouldn't benefit him from here.

Karakorum Legend

Barn's second part cuts back after tiring from his pace efforts while holding third money at the level last week; most recent score did come at today's trip and he should have a little more to offer in the lane here, but he settles for a lot of minor awards; consider.

Sandy'z Slew

Just missed getting there when headed by one of today's foes on the stretchout to this trip, first time at the level; he's certainly taken to the green and showed solid tracking foot last time which are tactics he can employ from this outside draw; giving him the nod to beat them home.

Special Selection

Outside drawn gelding makes his first start since Saratoga where he had little to offer behind a next out winner on the turn back to sprint; ran ok fresh earlier in the year but hasn't been a threat at the trip and would need to take a big step forward to threaten in here; passing.

Zetterholm

MTO offered plenty of promise last year, but was sent to the bench off the G2 Dwyer fade and didn't fare so well in his upstate return, first time for this outfit; maybe the return to one turning will help and he hasn't missed a training beat of late; with a solid wet track pedigree in him he's a threat if the rains come.

Socialsaul

MTO makes his first start off the claim by a barn that hasn't had any recent luck with this type right back; he did wear them down going longer in his return to this level last time and the good amount of lick in the main body of the heat suggests the pace in front of him may still be honest if the rains come; one to fear late if this gets moved to the dirt.

Groomedforvictory

He's the third member of the barn's entry and he'll make his first start off their claim in this spot; he wasn't as good upstare as he was at the trip here back in June, but he's another who should benefit from the return to sprinting and his wet track spins were ok; consider.

Race 8

Sinistra

Steady moves for this including the improved drill on the 9th; soph was out of the money in both the sprint efforts and although he has some semblance of speed, there are others in here with designs on the top; would lean toward watching a race here.

Seeker

Clever win two back and note the place horse was clear for run; gelding could have just been overmatched in last when hung wide from post 10; he has much more speed than he just showed and would expect rider to put him into the race from the sound of the bell; expect much better result today.

Tricky Slam

Gelding seems to have improved off the freshening; the 6/19 place horse took a $20K claimer next out, then was out of the money in an N1X fray; on the wrong surface two back, he was inching toward the winner in last and the extra furlong could be just what the good doctor ordered; can't fault those that project a peak performance.

Dighton

Agile enough to overcome being mauled in the last win three back, soph was hung wide in the last pair and he was still getting to the winner in last; trainer has spotted them just fine this year with limited starters; proven at this demanding distance, don't ignore this guy.

Summer Sands

Just a couple of slices vs. winners and he didn't scare the winner on either day; runner closed into the very moderate pace for the lone route win so he has to prove he can win sprinting; hustling bug got a chance to figure him out last time; look for him in the picture late if at all.

Start Jumping

Toss the inner strip efforts and the form brightens; like the series of drills since the last effort and the show horse in last cashed next out in a $25K optional, then was out of the money in a $20K optional; looms the one to deny.

Chasing Moonlight

Gelding has been pretty consistent this year; over 4 clear in last and the way he was getting to the winner suggests he should take to the added distance today; like the draw, he should sit a nice stalk and pounce trip; rates long look in all the slots.

Assured Victory

Just held together for the lone win in the mud but he's been out of the money since; he may not have cared for the rail at the shore two back; the hotter the pace the better for this guy.

Springcourt

Toss the grass races and the form looks better; this is the first time in his career he's been put in a sprint so he has something to prove; note runners in the company line were both over 3 clear in last; style demands a hot pace and a traffic-free trip.

Race 9

Missysmoonlitmagic

Not sure that his best effort is quite strong enough to get the job done in this spot and he was just beaten with a 7.5k tag attached at PID in his latest start; prefer to keep looking around in here.

Speedy's Gal

Stakes placed mare has been in pretty good form lately and she appears to fit right in at this 20k claiming level; she has excellent positional speed to employ from inside post and going to look for her to be involved in the running throughout.

Let the Kitten Run

Maybe she can have a say in the outcome if she can find her way back to one of her better performances, but it would've been nice to have seen her show more in her first start back from a layoff in her latest outing, and don't like to see her losing the services of Lezcano.

Correspondent

She's been in good form since June and really like to see what she's done in her two most recent races since being claimed by these connections; she's tough to ignore while dropping down in class.

Double Berg

She looks like another in here who is going to need a flashback if she's to prove to be a player and she enters this race off of one of the poorer starts of her career; third place finisher from latest returned to win next out at Mth on 9/29 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 12.5-10.5k claimers with a 74 Beyer.

Pauper's Queen

Mid-Atlantic shipper figures to find herself with a lot of ground to cover when they hit the top of the stretch and this looks like it can prove to be a tough assignment for her first start over the Belmont Park turf course.

Starship Gambler

This is only her second start for the Klesaris barn and her latest race after a layoff might have been designed as a steppingstone for this; she's not out of the question on her best day and she figures to make an aggressive bid for the early lead.

Fall Into Faith

All things considered, her most recent race after a layoff can be viewed in a positive light, but she's still going to need to be ready to produce a career best performance if she's planning on getting over on the top contenders in this spot.

Tantaliza

Her most recent race was one of her better performances and like to see Lezcano land here, but it does look like she's going to have to hope that a number of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at something more than a minor award.

Get Gorgeous

7-year-old mare is making her first start since June and she's never run a race that is fast enough to suggest that she can be competitive in this spot; winner from latest won next out here on 7/11 going 1m vs. 35k OPC's with an 85 Beyer.

Downtown Hottie

She's been a pretty consistent performer racing over turf in her career and she appears to be extremely well meant while being entered with a 20k tag attached and getting a rider switch to Rosario; don't like to see the 0-for-15 mark over the Belmont Park turf, but she has the look of a top contender.

Lily Lynn

It's fair to question the dirt form in the main body of this race, and there really isn't any recent dirt form worth mentioning, so this looks like it will be a nice spot for this mare to make her return to action if this race gets taken off the turf; winner from latest won next out here on 9/18 going 6 1/2f vs. 25k OPC's with an 82 Beyer and runner up won next out here on 9/22 going 6f vs. 50k OPC's with an 81 Beyer; Ortiz has won with 6 of 13 (46%) mounts for this barn in 2013, including 3 of 4 at the current meeting.

World Premier

Not sure that today's one mile distance is what she's looking for, but her form sprinting hasn't been all bad, and she wouldn't be facing the toughest bunch if this race has to be moved to the main track.

Lotsa Noodles

If you only focus on her dirt form since moving into this barn she has a competitive look against these; plus, she wouldn't mind if there was some moisture in the surface; she'll merit top contender status if she gets to go.