Belmont: Closer Looks for October 17, 2013

Race 1

Prize Taker

She came up empty when she tried this distance in her first start for Baker who claiemd her for $20K in her previous race; at least she showed decent speed for the first time in her career and it wouldn't be surprising to see her improve here; there are 3 route-winnings sibs in the family so the distance should be within her range; others look more attractive, however.

Taramislew

Adds Lasix for her third start and she is going to need to improve quite a bit to contend here; dam lost her only start; lone sibling won a single race from 15 starts and it came sprinting; she should get some stamina from her Grade 3 winning sire who finished second in the Belmont; passing.

La Java

She chased Prize Taker but couldn't keep up when it mattered in her latest but it was just her second start this year so she could take a big step forward here; it was also her first try at a middle distance; dam didn't win in 8 starts; lone sib to win is a route winner and he finished second in the Grade 1 Champagne and Hopeful; consider for the bottom half of the exotics.

Brandini

She was coming off a four-month layoff when she finished second as the chalk in the same race most of these ran in Sept. 18 and is an obvious threat to win her second start back; it looks like a battle between her and Fujiana and it depends on which one moves forward the most in their second start back; the past five years Bond has a 21% strike rate with horses making thier second start following a layoff so it wouldn't be surprising if she's the winner.

Sky Lassie

She finished just a half-length behind Fujiana in the common race after spotting the field a few lengths when she was forced to steady coming out of the gate; she didn't fire when she came back a week later as the chalk in a slightly longer race that was washed off the turf but maybe it was just too soon for her; she's had time to recover and can see her rebounding with a better effort here.

Fujiana

That was a solid effort in her first start this year and while she was going 4-wide on the turn Brandini was getting through along the rail; easy to imagine her taking a big step forward with the race behind her and it encouraging to see Velazwquez retain the mount with the blinkers going on; the pick.

Race 2

Geisha Gal

She's making a notable distance move as barn is shortening her up from a mile and an eighth to six furlongs; she's been sharpened for the task with consecutive bullet works; she also makes a notable class move, as she's back in the overnight ranks after facing stakes foes; looking for her to bid in the later stages.

Ullapool

She's a tough read; she is the race's controlling speed, but she gives up recency to all of these as she has not seen action since September 2012; barn wins at an above average rate with its comebackers, while this one has been well-flattered since her win last out; the third-place finisher came back to take the $150K Iroquois at Bel with a Beyer Figure of 99; the fourth-place finisher, Los Ojitos, an N1X at Lrl, with a Beyer of 92; and the seventh-place finisher, Marvelous Margaret, a $30K claimer at Bel, with a Beyer of 79; one to preview in the paddock.

Ecstatic Miss

She returned from a freshening last out and stalked her way to a third-place finish against conditioned allowance foes; has reason to move forward in her second start back and note she is returning to dirt, a surface over which she put up one of her best career Beyer Figures.

Superior Sarah

She ran a big race off the bench last out, when second to a dominant winner in what was this one's first start since August 2012; the race went in good time, and it was the sort of effort this one can build upon in her second start back; might get a nice stalking trip behind Ullapool and Classic Point; can share.

Expression

She's a bit of a fresh face as this will be her first out since August; was favored at this level last time at Sar and finished fourth to a runner who was a highly impressive debut winner at Oaklawn in February; as for this one, she might not have cared for the wet track that afternoon; leading contender.

Classic Point

She's moving back to the overnight ranks following a graded stakes start over a wet track that might not have suited her as she has done her best work over fast strips; has more natural speed than most of these and from her outside post might get an ideal tracking trip off the fresh Ullapool; Grade 2-placed runner is also right at home on the main track at Bel, where she is 3-for-8; choice.

Race 3

Left Uppercut

If she can put together one of her better performances she can get herself into the mix against these but she's looking for her first career win in start number 18 and she hasn't been in good form since being returned from a layoff three races ago.

Bebes Passion

She actually sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here but she's tough to recommend when seeing that she hasn't finished in the top three in her first 18 starts; prefer to look toward others.

You So Smart

She figures to appreciate the drop in class and if she can remember the way that she ran in her first two turf attempts she can prove to be a legitimate threat; winner from latest returned to win next out here on 10/13 going 1m vs. 14k OPC's with a 68 Beyer.

Sheedbdawon

Anasheed has been a poor influence as a turf sire but this filly appears to be a solid fit with this group of 16k maiden claimers; runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 10/11 going 7f over turf vs. 16k MCL's with a 67 Beyer.

See See See

She's had 20 chances to clear the maiden hurdle before now and that alone is a reason to look in another direction; this is a soft group, so maybe a minor award is within reach, but going to look in another direction.

Ivanovna

She showed a decent level of consistency between April and July but she's going to have to improve over what she's done in her three most recent starts to get the job done; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 9/27 going 1m over turf vs. 20k claimers with a 71 Beyer.

Blue Z Gal

She was outrun at every point of call in her career debut after going to post at over 60-1 but this is a good spot for her to make her second career start, and maybe the addition of Lasix can help.

East Coast Express

She looks like one of the more legitimate options to consider in this spot, and even though she enters this race off of a performance that was below par for her, contesting a fast early pace had a lot to do with it.

Andromeda's Coming

Not wild about what she's shown us in her first three starts but this would certainly be a soft spot for her to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf; like to see that this barn has done well going sprint-to-route and second after a layoff.

Race 4

Jet Away

Looks like she's heading in the right direction and the horse that won her race at Parx two back came back to win a first-level allowance race there with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure; she's certainly improved since she was here in June and she is a half to Grade 2 winner Sightseeing and Grade 1 placed Sea Island so there could be plenty of upside potential; this came up pretty tough, though.

Flores Island

She is the only one with Beyer Speed Figures in the 80's and they came in her last two races at Saratoga; horse that beat her in her latest romped in a first-level allowance race at Laurel in her next start and earned an 87 Beyer; the only knock is she has been favored in five of her last six starts and hasn't gotten it done; today looks like the day she gets over the hump; the pick.

Malibu Queen

She equaled her career-berst Beyer Speed Figure in her latest but the bad news is a 48 just isn't going to cut it at this level; nice work Oct. 5 but this is just too steep of a jump in class for her; she should be involved early but it is hard to imagine her hanging around late; passing.

Lunar Surge

It looks like the race is between her and Flores Island and with only three starts behind her she has every right to improve enough to win this; she has finished behind the top pick in her last two starts but she is adding blinkers and running on Lasix for the first time; nice set of works since she ran and Weaver has solid stats with horses coming back in this time period; contender.

Quintile

Another one heading in the right direction but she will need to take a big step forward in her first try on dirt to threaten the top two; one of her siblings won the Swedish Derby on dirt but her two best siblings, $800K Grade 3 winners Solvig and Lady Carlock did their best work on the lawn.

Race 5

Zivo

A beaten favorite last time when returning to the mile, he was likely hurt by the soft opening quarter-mile fraction in that affair; may receive a stronger set-up here and rally in time to be a major player; does not warrant such a short price in a field of this nature, however.

Itsagoodtendollars

He is one of the toughest statebreds at this level and tries hard every time; was compromised by a lengthy speed duel in the last assignment and must try to get away free and clear or elect to take back a length or 2 in the early going; ultimate respect.

Street Swagg

Improving grey was holding all the aces last month: the rail, an unpressured lead, and the controlling of moderate fractions; doubt he can work out such an ideal journey here and therefore a repeat victory will not be easy to achieve; likely needs some key late scratches.

Purge Bird

Although he is in the hands of an expert trainer, there are some glaring drawbacks to this runner's chances; he has never been successful at Belmont but more importantly, the bulk of his success has been in 2-turn routes; he is facing several one-turn specialists today.

Ultimate Empire

This sophomore has established a perfect exacta record since May and can handle various types of footing; faces near certain battle for the early lead though but is versatile enough to change tactics in this spot; maintains top-notch rider and is an obvious true contender.

Jade Run

He has tailed off dramatically since that excellent try at Saratoga in late July; there is nothing to suggest a sudden turnaround is in the cards today and he cannot be recommended until he recaptures some of his old rallying firepower.

Seventy Six

Confirmed closer needs a red-hot pace in order to have any realistic chance for a large share today; overall Beyers come up way short of the mark and another wide trip seems probable; could be used in the bottom portions of your exotic wagering approach.

Smokin Candy

The gelding lands into yet another different barn and was clearly beaten by Seventy Six in their match-up 3 starts back; has run fairly well in the past via the turf-to-dirt methodology but that was against much weaker stock than this.

Sound of Drums

Earned a personal best Beyer in that last tally at Finger Lakes but was aided in that race when 3 longshots vied for the early advantage; just like his entrymate, however, he has never scored at this oval, a major knock; a wet track could end that drought.

Warrior Up

If an ordinary pace unfolds today, he seems destined for a futile, wide trip; best local effort this year was on 6/27 when a swift tempo enhanced his rally (just missing at a healthy price); generous odds are certain.

Papa Tom

Ran in Sunday's fourth race here, finishing far back in an extremely fast sprint affair; the trainer involved has scored in the past with a wheel back such as this but this colt is still eligible for the far weaker n3l condition.

Bake Shop

One very intriguing item whose career best race was at the straightaway mile; note the effort 2 back where he had a nightmare trip yet still lost by a small margin; in his last encounter at Delaware, he had little chance in a 2-speed number type of race; dangerous stalker now.

Race 6

Deanaallen'skitten

Mare may have just been overmatched last time; proven on the course, never out of the money on the local grass and she got a boost when the place horse in last cashed next out in a $100K stakes with a 94 Beyer; reoeatedly proven fresh, love the spacing of the return drills; all systems go.

Charmingmegan

Life and death to close out 2012 with the win but only several slices since; that Philly finale did come back live; the 6th finisher took a $15K optional next out at Delaware by 11 with a 66 Beyer; show horse won next out in a $50K Charles Town stakes and the winner repeated in a $20K claimer at KD, then ran out of the money; what a difference a year makes; she won half her starts last year, can't by a victory in 2013; not sold on chances.

Rock On Baby

Hung wide the last time she was claimed, miss was inching toward the winner in last; she doesn't have to be seventh early on today and like the fact the trainer went into his own pocket to buy this gal; last angle top think about: this rider was up for the win last year.

Mlle Margaux

All out for the win three back and she is basically out to prove that win was no fluke; what she was doing in the stakes two back is anybody's guess and she never raised a gallop at this level last time; could need Empire-breds to show top talent.

Decennial

At least she has the 2 races to draw from now; she may prefer a little give in the ground as the last win came on the yielding course; the 8/5 winner clicked right back in a $35K optional, then ran out of the money; even if you figure she didn't like the rail in last, it's been over a year since she has won; would tread lightly here.

Jean's Surprise

Lone win vs. winners came against Jersey-breds; troubled at the break two back and a bit wide in last but she has put 3 dull efforts together; winner 9/18 repeated here in a $50K optional with an 87 Beyer; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Malibu Yankee

Miss was entered Wednesday at Keeneland in an N2X fray and was tabbled at 8-1 on the morning line; return was solid but she was left with too much to do in the stakes last time; at least she has the 2 races to draw from now; would look for her in the final stages if at all.

Indian Starlight

Not the easiest spot for just a double winner and she is facing a few that have been around the block and back; fully extended in the last win when losing ground late, now has to go another 16th; could see her pushing the issue, not sure she'll be around at the end.

Another Please

Mare upset the conditioned claiming crew for the last win and she was all out in the process; the 7/12 winner won twice since, the last in a $25K optional with an 87 Beyer; she likes to cut it close even when she does win as she broke her maiden by a slight nose; has some things to iron out.

Edie

Mirror races since leaving Bush barn; she got away with a pretty sluggish half mile in last and still gave up the ghost; miss doesn't need the lead to win though and Ortiz should have a handle on her by now; in good hands, another slice?

Natalie Victoria

Two excuses in last; the sealed sloppy strip and the company; she's been in some good barns and the place horse in the last win cashed next out in a $25K optional, then ran out of the money; style now secret, rider will likely try to steal it if the mare gets a chance to suit up; could get brave with a lonely lead.

Race 8

Dannhauser

Broke 11th from the gate in last and clearly does his best running when breaking from mid-pack or a stalking position; 3 of his last 4 wins were posted on CNL turf while losing decisions to similar rivals in 2013 starts; exits his best Beyer speed figure of the year and hopes to bank on that effort for even better today; the 2-back loss a key race with 89-88 next-out Beyer winners while the 3-back winner repated in a BEL-Grade 2 with a 97; saves ground then makes 1 run.

Sky Blazer

53 days since checking in behind a few of these at Saratoga; offered only a mild rally in May at today's distance over today's BEL-Inner Turf; career-best Beyer May, 2012, was at shorter on today's grass course; is another who does his best running from a stalking-mid-pack spot but has not shown any gate speed in recent defeats.

Shkspeare Shaliyah

Winless in 17 races dating back to October, 2011, when capturing a Grade 3 on BEL Inner Turf at 1M and 1-16th racing on soft footing; lone race in career trying at least today's 10F distance was a more-than-20-length loss; the 3-back winner repeated in a SAR-optional claimer with a 96 Beyer.

London Lane

Deep rally in his 3-back Grade 3 win over the runner-up finisher who captured a 100K stakes next out at SAR with a 93 Beyer then took a BEL G2 with a 97 speed figure; raced too close to the pace in latest but brings the win rider in for this; simply has not brought that sharp-Virginia form to New York in recent defeats.

Harrods Creek

Exits his best Beyer since August, 2012, seeking his 1st-in-the-money finish of 2013; reunites with the latest-win rider and clearly his best game is to settle mid-pack then make 1 run; was pressed to hard to gain early position in the 3-back loss then was outfinished 2-back in a key race facing 89-88 next-out Beyer DEL-50K stakes and optional-claiming winners.

Quick Casablanca (CHI)

They clearly have had high hopes for this one going in 2 graded stakes in the USA in 4 races; set the pace in latest at today's distance on BEL Inner Turf where posting a career-best Beyer; figures to stalk Imagining then get 1st run on the closers; March, 2012, was his last victory on dirt but then showed little in his only USA-main track try; view as a pace presence.

Exclusive Strike

Exits his lowest Beyer since February when unable to show best form on firm turf; he prefers soft footing; 61 days since consecutive losses in Grade 1 races; reunites with the win rider for a high-percentage fresh trainer; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 82 in his next-out BEL-optional-claiming win.

Atigun

Career-best form has been on dirt; have to dismiss latest when checked at the gate break; his best races are when allowed to stalk the speed; rematch with Imagining receiving a positive 4-pound positive weight swing off the more-than-5-length loss to that one 2-back; new trainer is 0-for the last-9 first-time out with newly-acquired runners.

Royal Bench (IRE)

Exits his worst USA finish coming off the 2-back key-race victory when defeating the runner-up and show finishers who Beyered 89-88 in next-out DEL-50K stakes and optional-claiming wins; lost all chance at the gate break of last when checking as his best efforts have been allowed to stalk the speed which he hopes to do today chasing Imagining from the gate.

Imagining

New blinkers have helped his cause; he can rate from off the pace but 3 of his 5 wins were right on the lead and catches a field void of much other gate speed so expect him to be playing catch me if you can here; June, 2012, winner over today's BEL Inner turf at today's distance; main concern is returning in just 19 days when his career-best Beyer was following more-than a 3-month break.

Madris

Removed the blinkers for last 1st off the claim then delivered a career-best Beyer; has been at his very best on less-than-firm turf courses; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with a 90 speed figure; has never been this far yet while making the stakes debut in a tough spot.

Hobbs

Worked sharply on dirt for this while removing blinkers; has never been this far but is 2-for-6 without the hood during career; the 3-back winner captured a SAR-G2 next out with a 98 Beyer then took a KEE G1 with a 108 speed figure; has done some of his best running over less-than-firm turf courses and that type of oval would move him up; must overcome today's ground-losing draw.

Lure of the South

Main Track Only entry was also entered tomorrow in BEL's 3rd a 1M and one eighth dirt optional claimer; broke his maiden in career-start 20 and seems to be shooting high after going 0-for-4 since claimed in May from a high-percentage win barn; would be a shocker.

Cease

1st race with blinkers on during career was a victory posting his best Beyer since October, 2012, when Grade 2-placed at today's distance; may be rounding back into his best form; posted the field's best Beyer over a less-than-fast race track and a wet-dirt oval would move him way up.

Race 9

Seriously Sharp

He's back in for a tag in his local return after backing out of it late as part of the favored coupling at Finger Lakes; gelding earned a decent number 2 back over the course at this trip and maybe he'll have a little more to offer late on the turn back to this trip; can get in the mix for a share.

Fiddlers Tango

He's been off the board in each of his 3 local sod spins including when turned back to a shorter trip last time; maybe the added panel helps him get going today, but off what he's shown thus far this statebred has got a lot to prove; looking elsewhere.

Metro

Last out runner up at the level cuts back to sprint here; barn boasts nice numbers with the move and this guy does own the highest last out Beyer of the bunch; tough to trust them to put good ones together at this cheap level, but this guy does look to be the one to down.

Media Kid

Sire gets 9% first out winners overall and 11% first surface winners from his offspring and the G3 SP dam won twice on the green in the states while banking 194K prior to dropping 5 surface winners including 2.9 million earner and G1 SW Go Between who won 5 times on the lawn; given the pedigree, have to wonder how much this guy can run to be in for such a cheap tag first out.

Tone of Triumph

Sire gets 11% debut winner and nearly 9% first turf winners from his runners and the 2 time route winning dam was 0 for 3 on the lawn; his sibs were a combined 0 for 3 on the grass; New York bred's works aren't much and the barn's been on a poor run with newcomers.

Moravitz

Had some trouble late when beaten a half length for all the money at a longer trip; cut back may suit this guy as he does figure to get a quicker clip in front of him than he saw last time and he'll have a little more ground in which to let his kick go than he did 2 back at the level; contender.

Easy Street

Statebred is offered for a tag for the initial time while making his second start back from a long break; barn hasn't had much recent success second off the layoff but this guy has had 5 full weeks to get past his last and he did run ok over a heavy local course as a juvenile; price should be right to try and get him in the exotics mix.

My Italian Ices

Speedy colt hasn't saved much for the drive in either of his 2 dirt starts and now he'll stretch out a bit and try the green for an outfit that fires fresh; sire gets 11% first surface winners from his offspring and the dam was a G1 SP, SW turfer and 280K earner who dropped a couple of multiple winners, but her foal to try the green was 0 for 2 over the stuff; wouldn't be surprised to see him take to this stuff and flaunt his lick a long way.

Muscles Marinara

Returns from his summer break to make his first start off this low profile outfit's claim; barn does do a nice job placing its newly acquired stock and this guy did run well into a solid clip over the course in the spring, but he'll need to show up with more than he had last time to have a say in the outcome here.

Fifth Gear

Trcked and backed out of it when in for more than twice this price in his turf debut last week; gelding may find this bunch a little more to his liking, but don't know that he'll have much more to offer while returning so quickly; can't back him.

Market Blaster

MTO ran ok for second money behind an easy winner in his return from time off; he's quick enough to sit a stalking spot from the bell, but note that he ran poorly in each of his 3 wet track spins and that will likely be the condition if he gets to go in this spot; consider.

The Culchie

MTO sat a nice trip in his return from the break when dropped to this level, but just couldn't go with the runaway winner in the lane and had to settle for third money; maybe the outside draw puts him in a tracking spot and the cut back could help, but the barn hasn't had a lot of recent success on the decrase in distance and this guy will need to improve on the figure scale to factor in this heat.