Belmont: Closer Looks for October 14, 2013

Race 1

I'm Wide Awake

First part of the coupling stretches out after failing to go on sprinting in his first start since Saratoga; maybe the drop to this level helps get him going, but he hasn't had much to offer since shipping to this circuit; new bug pilot named was leading rider at Arlington Park this summer.

River Boss

Got his nose down to score when dropped to this level at a slightly longer trip off this barn's claim; sophomore earned the field's highest last out number in that one and the top pilot sticks with him on the cut back; don't know that the pace will be so quick in front of him, but he should be coming hard late; one to beat.

Ale

Late runner has been consistent on the Beyer scale this season and now he'll drop a level; gelding loves the course and this barn has been going pretty well of late here; he'll need to be a little more alert early, but his regular effort makes him a huge threat with these.

Craving Carats

Goes first time for a new outfit after being given time off his second straight weak upstate effort; these are softer than he was facing there, though, and he will get a solid local pilot for this; lone local sod spin was solid, but don't know that he's good enough right now to step with some of these.

Smokey Brown

Took a big step forward in upsetting cheap maidens second time on the green; these winners are better than he's been facing, but he did pack a nice late kick in that score and with just a few starts under his belt he certainly has a right to move forward.

Prudent Investor

Fresh gelding makes his first start off the claim by an outfit that does nice work with this type right back; gelding ran big in his initial sod spin here a few months back and it looks as if he could be the controlling speed in this spot; looks to be the one to run down.

Horse Latitudes

Beat cheap maidens in his eighth career start but had little impact when tackling better winners for the first time last out; he's been able to find spots close to slow clips and without a lot of speed in here maybe he does find a tracking spot, but it's tough to have much faith he'll find enough to go on late with these; have to look elsewhere for the winner.

Kiss of Thunder

Tries a notch better after running them down while going a bit further last time; he'll get a weight break with the switch to this capable bug, but he moves to the outside slot for this; new outfit doesn't do particularly well with its claimed runners right back; prefer to limit his use to underneath from this draw.

Bemata

MTO makes his first start off the claim by a barn that boasts excellent numbers with this type; gelding did get a nice pace setup while scoring at the level 2 back, but he'll likely find himself closer early at this trip and he could have a little better run in him with the turf conditioning heat behind him; contender if the rains come.

Summer Sands

MTO hasn't set foot on a wet main track yet, but his pedigree certainly suggests he'll like such footing; he'll drop a notch after getting up for a minor award behind a quick clip at the local trip; given the likely pace scenario in here a minor share will likely be his ceiling on the quick return.

Barrister Jim

Barn's other half was an impressive 2 turn maiden winner over cheaper at the beginning of the Saratoga meeting and he's been idle since taken out of that heat from which the runner up returned to score; he ran big over a wet track second out in Kentucky and even though he'll be turning back here his speed figures to be prominent; big repeat threat if he gets to go.

Race 2

Frazil

Nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 20 of 33; 2 taxing races back to back and you don't really know how much it may have taken out of him; this is his venue as Rice tries to strike while the iron is hot coming back quickly; and that has been a good ploy for this barn; interesting.

Intensivist

Beat 5 when life and death for the lone win this year; nice try in last but they were all on the line together, sometimes a sign of just an ordinary race; note wraps were added for the return; try to get a good look at him on the track before teeing it up.

Writingonthewall

Pro has had a nice career and he looked good winning in last; place horse two back took a $25K claimer, was out of the money in an allowance sport; Jacobson winning off the claim---, what else is new?; repeat well within the realm.

He Can Run

Four solid efforts since being claimed in July including the shore score in August; the 9/2 place horse cashed next out in a $350K Laurel stakes with a gaudy 108 Beyer; note show horse in last was nearly 4 clear; this guy rates a long look in all the slots.

Cool Under Fire

Hung wide in last pair, note runners in the company line last time were clear; runner has a nice stalk and pounce style and at least he is fit enough to drill since the last victory; he has to do something today he never has done and that's put wins together.

Scotus

Proven locally, he handles any kind of going, and he doesn't seem to prefer grass; off the rail today, but with his style, he will need plenty of help up front; the 87/2 winner repeated in a $100K LAD stakes with a 95 Beyer; a hot pace really would benefit this runner.

Cinnamon Beach

Off a long time and note wraps re-added for the return; apparently not much of a work horse, and he only beat 6 in the 2012 closer; can't be thrilled with the local record either; has some things to prove.

Dawly

Three times as many slices as wins; he still has to be left in the exotic conversation but it's been a long time between drinks; last win came in August of 2011 in a $100K claimer; proven here and note he was over 6 clear two back; would think long and hard before taking too short a price and using on top only.

Itsagoodtendollars

Empire-bred is consistent; wide in the 2013 opener, but the rest of the races have been solid; best when sent along, but he can sit just off the pace and still perform; contention goes deep.

Awake At T Wire

Wraps re-added last time and note the place horse was nearly 5 clear; he has shown his versatility over the years winning on synthetic, grass and dirt so he has a shot to take to this surface; trainer has spotted them just fine all year; could need softer to shine.

Race 4

House On Toilsome

Two for 29 is a tough number to embrace; even after the decent second two back, fans didn't exactly go to the well at 17-1 and they were dead right; the 9/1 show horse cashed next out 11 days ago in a $16K optional with an 82 Beyer; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Wise Choice

She dances off the dances after 82 starts, but just slow ones; even when she was in the money in April, she didn't scare the winner by any means; can't endorse.

Giving Me Fitz

Miss seems to be pitched at tad too high; inner strip only this year and she really has not been close at this level; she just has flashed zero speed of late; needs a total reversal of fortune.

Score Boyera

Was thrown to the wolves in the Sunshine Millions Distaff and it may have just zapped her; mare seems to move up in the off going so keep one eye to the sky; hustling bug hired, this gal should be rolling very late if at all.

Quiet Sunshine

Hard to take a positive stance after she just beat one home in last; 8/29 race came back live as the 1st, 2nd and 5th finishers cashed next out; best when sent along and there doesn't appear to be that much zip in here; look for rider to send hard and hope for the best.

Thisizsparta

Wonder if Jerkens was less than thrilled when he got this gal back to the stall after the claim?; he had to freshen her and the return less than stellar; 6/21 place horse cashed next out in a $25K optional, then was out of the money twice; hard to boost.

Hundred Acre Wood

She has to prove she can win outside of Empire-bred land; game in the lone win this year but not in the money since; last race came back live and the 2nd and 5th finishers took $15K claimers next out and the winner repeated in a $16K optional; note it took him over a month to post the recorded drill after the last race; not seeing it.

Private Councel

Eased to kick off the year, had to hit the pine and the return was dismal; not the best of signs; no speed, no asset, and note she only beat 6 in the last win; going another way.

Race 5

Breakeven Analysis

He ran well in his career debut when finishing third of 10 and it doesn't hurt to see that he goes out for one of the strongest turf outfits in the country; that said, it might be worth noting the presence of Castellano aboard another in here.

Smooth Daddy

Like to see the effort that he showed up with when placed over turf at second asking and he might be ready to take a step forward while making his second start back from a layoff and his first start wearing blinkers; his dam was a multiple stakes winner who won 10 of 30 starts for 294k, including 4 of 11 turf starts for 125k.

Justin Nguyen

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 12 of 34 starts for 474k, including 0-for-1 over turf; turf is a question but it looks like he can prove to be an early pace player while making his first start routing and his first start wearing blinkers.

His Freedom Reigns

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and multiple graded stakes winning dam won 8 of 18 starts for 502k, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Saoirse Cat (4-25, 184k, including 3 of 15 turf starts for 109k); Alvarado has won with 7 of 23 (30%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Mr Speaker

He showed up with a much improved performance at second asking and have to respect his chances in this spot with Castellano hopping back aboard; he's plenty eligible to still have more to show us, and he only needs to repeat his latest performance to prove to be tough to deal with.

Gaining Ground

Saint Anddan has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this colt is obviously going to need to step it up over what he's shown in his first two starts to have a say in the outcome; he looks like more of an outsider.

Innovation Economy

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam won 2 of 4 starts for 43k, and all of her starts were over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to G3 winner Seaspeak (3-10, 270k over turf); one of three signed on in this spot for the Brown barn.

Street Gent

80k purchase is eligible to be ready for a much sharper try at second asking and he's a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Victoire Bataille (3-19, 202k over turf) and multiple stakes winner Beau Dare (4-19, 244k over turf); note the success that this barn has been having with 2-y-o starters.

Veya

He's by a top turf sire and he showed enough in his first start in America in his latest outing to merit some consideration in this spot; like to see Lezcano aboard again and perhaps the addition of Lasix can prove to be a key.

Big Daddy B

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam won 4 of 16 starts for 128k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to G3 winner Unbridled Essence (4-20, 287k over turf); it would have been nice to have seen him show more in his career debut, but he might be looking forward to moving to turf.

Patent

Half-brother to multiple graded stakes winner Tizaqueena (4-12, 462k over turf) finished right behind today's rival Breakeven Analysis in his lone turf attempt and it looks like he recorded a sharp four furlongs over turf on September 27 in preparation for this.

Cousin Stephen

Justin Nguyen can prove to be a legitimate threat in this spot if this race has to be moved to the main track, but this will be a favorable spot for this colt to land in if this race gets taken off the turf; runner up from debut won next out at Bel on 10/5 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 76 Beyer.

Race 6

Your Time Is Up

Switches surfaces after being beaten less than 2 lengths on the local lawn last month; filly was solid on dirt earlier in the year and she's a quick enough breaker to secure a good spot early from this inside draw; one to consider.

Sweet Hot Toddy

Goes first off this low percentage barn's claim while returning at the same level of her last out fade; she's got some speed and figures to be close early in a heat without a lot of lick signed on, but off that recent return try it's tough to imagine she has enough to go on late; prefer others.

Kitty Panda

Sophomore has only run a handful of times and her last at the level wasn't bad considering how far into the track she found herself; she's returned to work well for a barn that boasts nice numbers with its runners scond off the break; has a right to go much better over a more fair racetrack; contender.

Gabrilicious

She's another who had little to offer in her return from Finger Lakes; filly does have some positional foot and the barn deos nice work second off the freshening, but a minor award looks to be her ceiling in this spot.

Eyes of Midas

Should be tighter for her second start of the year while returning to dirt and she did offer some promise sprinting late year; low percentage outfit again calls upon this top pilot and though they don't boast any recent luck on the surface switch it wouldn't be a surprise if she were to go better at a decent price in here.

Sharon Spagetti

Hood comes off for her first off this low profile outfit's claim; filly was ok in the Spa slop 2 starts back and she was ok over a fast local strip earlier in the year, but off what she showed last time it's tough to get too excited about her chances in this spot.

Maxana

Cuts back to sprint after a troubled route spin in which she didn't bring much to the table first time for this outfit; filly doesn't have much early lick so she figures to be far out of this from the bell and that doesn't bode well for her chances of getting in the mix here; passing on this longshot.

Fiftyfour Forever

Set the pace before fading in the last out stake and should appreciate the cut back here; field's lone multiple local winner is back in for the optional tag and she may not be as good as she once was, but she could prove to be the one to beat while in with this softer set.

Run a Dubb Dubb

Filly was freshened off another weak upstate effort and the barn hits at a pretty weak clip first time back; maybe the time off served her well, but she'll have to prove that she's back on her game before we could take interest in using her.

Soul Opposition

Tired after forcing the pace in her first crack with winners while also stepping over the local main track for the initial time; Castellano sticks with a filly who was ok in breaking her maiden from a tracking spot in the Spa mud 2 starts back and though her numbers are light maybe she's able to offer more late at this shortened trip for an outfit that boasts solid numbers with the move; price will be right.

Typhoon Teri

Moves back in with statebreds after again failing to factor against winners; she beat a weak bunch of maidens with a decent number at Saratoga but given what she's done since, don't think it was a fair indication of her capabilities; have to look elsewhere.

Race 8

Teen Pauline

Grade 1 stakes placed filly has run well in back-to-back starts since being introduced to turf racing but she is going to need to be ready to deliver her sharpest performance to date if she's to prove to be the one in this spot; respect connections, but prefer to lean toward others.

Dauphine Russe (FR)

This looks like a favorable spot for her to make her first start in America and this barn has won with 10 of 23 (43%) foreign shippers the past four years; looking at company lines, Peace Burg is a multiple group stakes winner who has won 4 of 8 for 215k, Flotilla is a multiple G1 winner who was super impressive in winning the BC Juv. Fil. Turf last year, Tasaday is a multiple group stakes winner who has won 5 of 10 for 579k, and Alterite shipped to America to win a G1 here for Brown.

Mariel N Kathy

Stakes winning filly has been a consistent performer and she's been at her best racing over the Belmont Park turf; however, she's probably going to need to see a slow early pace develop to have her best chance, and it looks like the early pace in here will be lively.

With Sugar On Top

She was sharp when upset minded two races ago but it would've been nice to have seen her show more in her latest outing and it's probably worth noting the presence of Ortiz aboard Discreet Marq; strong connections help give her some appeal, but going to look in another direction.

Frege

Maybe she won't prove to be up to the level of the top contenders in here, but she's been very good in her two most recent races, and she deserves extra credit for her latest outing when considering the long layoff; perhaps she can land a spot underneath in the exotics at a price.

Tapicat

Grade 3 winner really hasn't run a bad race to date, and although she's more of an early speed type, she did show the ability to tap the breaks a little bit through the opening stages two starts ago; feel that she commands plenty of respect while turning back to a distance that just might be her best.

Summer of Fun

Outside of a start over a yielding turf course as a 2-year-old, her turf form has been very strong, and if Dauphine Russe doesn't prove to he the one in this spot, this might be the miss to look out for; this barn has been quiet at this meeting, but there's plenty to like about this G1 stakes placed filly.

Discreet Marq

She's done very little wrong in her 10 turf starts while winning half of them and she might find herself sitting a very similar trip to the one that led to a G1 score at Del Mar two starts back; Generazio-homebred deserves to be listed among the contenders.

Flash Forward

With the exception of Teen Pauline, it's fair to question the dirt form in the main body of this race, and if this stakes winning filly shows up with an effort like the one she did at Saratoga two back, she can leave these behind to fight it out over the minor awards.

Toasting

She earned a G1 stakes palcing as a 2-year-old, even if it was in a four-horse field, and her form this year has been solid; however, it's difficult to give her the nod over Flash Forward who has soundly defeated her in her two most recent races; first call for Saez.

Galloping Giraffe

She can help form a decent little 1-2 punch in here for the Pletcher barn as Teen Pauline will likely be involved with the early pace and this filly will be looking to make one late run; interesting to see her being equipped with blinkers for this.

Race 9

Don Dulce

Coupled with Praetereo; Jacobson saw fit to plunk down $100K for this guy a month ago, heady stuff; for that kind of price they're not hoping to pick up an allowance horse; 5yo didn't run so well that day but his prior work was very nice; worked 4 times since; that being said, his career-top Beyers (93, 92) mean he still likely needs to find a few lengths if he's to beat these.

Norman Asbjornson

Only local start wasn't much (ran 5th) but remember that was a G3...and in fact the 1-2 finishers were G1 horses who came back to run 3rd and 2nd, respectively, in the G1 Met Mile, so don't be too hard on this guy for that; toss that race and the rest of his form this spring/summer isn't bad at all, and that 103 Beyer earned at LRL in March shows he's got the oomph to be a player.

Praetereo

Coupled with Don Dulce; 2 of his 4 wins have come here, and he comes off an excellent rallying 2nd in the Duck Dance here Oct. 6; the horse who beat him, Caixa Eletronica, who only has 23 wins to his credit including numerous GSWs; he ended up further back early because the splits were so quick; that doesn't figure to happen here so that likely means he can stalk and not be left with too much to do.

Blingo

At one point in late 2011/early 2012 he looked like a potential Derby horse; then, he looked like a potential big shot turf horse; well, things haven't quite panned out for this guy and now Shirreffs tries a different tact - off the freshening he moves this guy back to dirt; only prior dirt try wasn't much (6th) but that came in a G2, was just his 3rd start and came after 3 months off; working along nicely but he's a question mark on the footing and Beyerwise he has yet to crack the 90 mark - it's probably going to take something in the high-90s to win this.

Percussion

Speed to be in the thick of it from the start; only dull outings this year came in a pair of G2s and he doesn't face that quality here; knocked heads with Fast Falcon a few times before and more than held his own; freshened since his Aug. 22 3rd at SAR and the works are most encouraging.

Farhaan

Kinda interesting; it's first time dirt, yes, but daddy won the G1 Belmont and you have Danzig on the bottom side so the pedigree is cause for optimism; colt showed quallity in England, came to the U.S. and won his first Stateside start on turf at THIS distance; then found the G2 Bowling Green waters too tough but there's no layoff since and no huge panicky drop, while the works (on dirt no less) since hint he handles the dirt and is doing well; food for thought.

Fast Falcon

May be winless in 7 starts this year but he's run some good races - 2nd beaten a nose by Percussion in the Albert the Great, 3rd to top-class Calidoscopio in the G2 Brooklyn, then a big 3rd in the G2 Suburban to top-class Flat Out; that was enough to earn him a shot at the G1 Whitney; however, he was no factor there at any point, then came back to be dull in the slop at SAR Sept. 1; could it be that big Suburban run and then the Whitney have taken some of the run out of him?; it's possible; at least there's no panicky drop and maybe returning to this place can get him back on track...maybe.

Race 10

East Bay Lodge

The grey's sire won a G1 stakes and 2.53 million overall (progeny of Flower Alley have scored in 12 out of 171 debuts); the dam won 2 of 16 and 47K; among the winning siblings is 279K earner Wicked Tune; shows only a modest work tab.

Mark My Way

Descendants of Noonmark, a G2 type who banked 354K, are zero for 7 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 1 of 4 and 32K; among the winning siblings is 57K earner Belushi; expert turf sprint trainer at the helm.

Social Rebellion

He closed with a rush in the latest run but was aided by a swift pace; extra furlong may not prove the answer, however; will have to get into gear sooner in order to run down Junger who should prove a major pace player here.

Justice Dept

Although losing by a scant length last month, he could offer very favorable betting value here especially if the early fractions are more commonplace; could prove to be the right value play in wide-open affair.

Sounds of Saratoga

Raced evenly at Saratoga when losing to a blowout, and repeat, winner; his sire won a G2 sprint and 388K while the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 21K earner Uncle Pat; should upgrade if avoiding extra-wide path.

Something's Coming

Nothing doing first time out but he returns with the Lasix addition; his sire won a Group 3 and 173K while the mom scored in 4 of 25 appearances earning 351K; sib to 48K earner Junoon; most recent training track breeze does not inspire.

Giant Jo

Very fine breeze from the gate on 9/27; his sire won a G1 and 454K (offspring of Frost Giant have won 4 of 29 initial starts); the dam was without a victory in 11 attempts; sib to 190K earner My Jopia.

Junger

Turned in a game try last time out and ran into encore winners in his first 2 attempts; if he is fortunate enough to be chasing or setting a softer tempo here, he can prove a major contender; worth some following up.

Tell It to the Man

Lost to several of these same foes in his maiden voyage; his sire won a G1 and 754K while the dam won 2 of 11 and 44K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; much room for improvement.

Luv Dakota Skye

Newcomer was sired by Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Corinthian who captured 1.26 million (his descendants have won 8 percent of their initial starts); the dam won 2 of 15 and 24K; winning siblings include G2 Twice as Bad who earned 276K.

Cool It

A curious item despite this demanding slot; the trainer excels with the turnback angle and this gelding raced within striking distance until the half-way point of his last route; bred to handle an off track should this race be washed away.

Woke Up Tired

Sired by top-notch runner Bernardini, a multiple G1 victor Bernardini who garnered 3.06 million; his progeny have won 11 percent of their debuts; the dam won 3 of 9 and 209K; sib to 58K earner Kettle River.

Campion Lane

Like many firsters, he broke to the outside when drawing widest; his sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million; the dam won 8 of 36 attempts and 169K; among the winning siblings is 269K earner Big Brownie.

Bluegrass Flash

Unlucky colt was off slowest in his debut yet still turned in a fine performance; the grey's sire won a G1 and 1.76 million; the dam won 5 of 20 and 198K; sib to G1 Discreet Marq who earned a total of 585K; playable if somehow drawing in.