Belmont: Closer Looks for October 13, 2013

Race 1

Stage Name

Offspring of Bellamy Road, who won the G1 Wood Memorial and 811K, have scored in 16 out of 144 debuts; the dam went 1 for 10 earning 28K; among the winning siblings is 66K earner Hurry Home Clover; latest gate breeze was fair.

Miss Melinda

Note very fine workout on the morning of 9/23; this filly's successful sire won 1 of 2 and 33K (progeny of Malibu Moon have won 100 out of 706 initial starts); the dam won 4 of 15 and 148K; sib to 73K earner Black Snowflake.

Hey Kiddo

Excellent drill from the gate a week ago; her sire won his only 25 and 25K; descendants of Stonesider are 4 for 53 in the first time victory department; the dam won her only start; sib to sprinter Jake N Elwood who earned 273K.

Sustainable

Sharp debut run which involved a heated duel; her sire won a G1 and 591K while the dam was without a tally in 9 attempts; among the winning siblings is 134K earner Culotte; dangerous if not challenged early.

Golden Maria

She turned in a fine blowout only 4 days ago; her sire twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 6.42 million (offspring of Tiznow have scored in 44 out of 583 debuts); the dam was a G2 winner who banked 278K; there are no winning sibs to report.

Camryn's Gem

Made a fair middle move in her maiden voyage before tiring; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 1.31 million; the dam won 2 of 9 and 76K; sib to 146K earner Me Love; yet another runner in this field who has been training very well.

Flatbow

Newcomer was sired by G2 type Broken Vow who captured 725K and whose descendants have won 11 percent of their first races; the dam went zero for 6; winning siblings include 461K earner Lime Rickey, a turf specialist.

Race 2

Mini Muffin

Mare didn't do much in either of her Spa spins and she'll make her first start since then at this slightly reduced trip; she does have some positional foot and maybe that helps her sit a decent spot early with the move inside and there's not a whole bunch in against her today; winless outfit calls upon another low percentage pilot but if this gal is set to return with her best she's capable of getting in the mix here.

Carole Lee

Thought she'd run a lot better than she did when dropped back to this level last week, but she really had little to offer when called upon; maybe the cut back to this trip helps and her better numbers stack up rather well with what the rest of this bunch has to offer; she's found the right bunch if she's ready to run.

Candy's Luck

Had some trouble while coming up short in her debut across town in the spring and she'll make her first start since then in this spot; barn isn't have much luck at the stand and they don't boast any recent success with second out runners; limited sprint winning dam's 2 other foals to race were each 0 for 1 on the track.

Vaid

Fresh filly makes her first start for this new outfit after being given time off an effort in which she failed to finish the course; she's worked ok of late for her return at this level and her efforts earlier in the year were certainly good enough to get involved in the outcome today; couldn't have caught a much softer field; consider.

Silent No More

Gets Lasix for the initial time while stepping on the main track after 4 turf spins to begin her career; filly tries a sfoter bunch there than she faced at Saratoga this summer and she has speed which is often rather key in cheap heats; dam was a 5 time main track winner so don't think she'll have much trouble with the footing; they'll have to run her down to win.

Princessbellaoncal

Gets back in with restricted runners after tiring from her pace efforts on the local lawn; maybe she's better with that one behind her but she hasn't had much to offer on the dirt, either, and will have to take a good step forward to contend, even with these.

Madison V.

She's only run twice and is the only one in here who has yet to be in either with statebreds or for a tag; fresh sophomore goes for a barn that excels with its runners off this type of break and she did show a little bit of run in her debut in Florida earlier in the year; can't be overlooked.

Absolute Paradise

Hood comes off after showing solid early interest from the inside draw, but she didn't save much for the drive in that one; her dirt start prior to that last one wasn't bad, but she's certainly had plenty of chances and this low percentage outfit reaches out for another new pilot who is winless at the current stand; looking at others for the top spot.

Race 3

Danceteria

He brings some early speed with him but he's going to need to produce a much improved performance if he's to have a say in the outcome against these; although routing, his one turf start was not an encoraging performance; respect the fact that this barn has been live lately, but looking toward others.

Five Shadwell

He has some respectable form sprinting over turf on his card to consider, and it's interesting to see that this will be his first run against New York-bred competition, but he seems to be better off at distances shorter than today's six furlong assignment; 3rd place finisher from latest won next out at Lrl on 10/3 going 5 1/2f over turf vs. 25-20k N2L claimers with a 74 Beyer.

Ludo Bagman

He didn't face a late challenge in his lone career win, a race that saw him go to post as a heavy odds-on favorite, and even though his two most recent races over turf can be viewed in a positive light, he was beaten by a couple of these two back; others entice more.

River Tune

His recent form has consistently been in the neighborhood of what it will take to win this, but he doesn't exactly sport the winningest profile, and this barn has been quiet at this meeting; can't ignore the presence of Castellano, but leaning toward others.

Hooked Forever

Of the horses in the main body of this race, he sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, and this late running type appears to be going better than ever entering this event; he merits his share of respect based on what he's done in his two most recent races over this turf course.

Z Maitre D

Don't like to see that his 3-year-old form hasn't improved over what he showed in his two starts as a 2-year-old, and even though he's out of a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 4 of 20 turf starts for 368k, his pedigree doesn't appear to be sprint leaning.

Countknickerbocker

He's only two races removed from a sharp runner-up finish at Saratoga and that level of performance can play well against these; he has sharper early speed than what he's shown lately and Velazquez might be looking to sit a trip just off of the early speed of Five Shadwell.

Dark Roast

Stakes placed colt has run well in two of his five starts since being placed over turf, but he has been beaten by a few of these in recent starts; fourth-place finisher from latest, Iron Power, won next out here on 9/28 going 7f over turf vs. 20k OPC's with an 87 Beyer.

Lord of Love

This colt has a little bit of turf on the bottom of his pedigree and he's run well enough in his recent starts sprinting over turf to be taken seriously in this spot; he's been beaten by a few of these in his last two starts, but he fits right in and he should be able to manage a comfortable trip while racing in the clear throughout.

Leilani's Ticket

A couple of horses in the main body of this race have shown the ability to run their race over dirt, but this looks like it will be an ideal spot for this colt to land in if this race has to be moved to the main track; like to see that he's run well in back-to-back starts since being claimed by these connections.

Luxury Appeal

Multiple stakes placed gelding has a little quality to his pedigree and he's capable of showing up with a competitive performance against these on his best day; he owns sharp early speed and he's eligible to be ready to give a good account of himself while making his third start back from a layoff.

Race 4

Longfor the City

Connections thought enough of him try the stakes two back and he was far from disgraced; runner handles any kind of going, has a solid stalk and pounce style and proved last time he fits in his league; slight improvement and he'll be right there.

Warrior Up

Wonder if something happened in that June swoon?; he was coming off one of his better races, then they stop on him and he worked lightly for the August return; must prove he can win sprinting and he could be left with a ton of work to do turning for home.

Modern Child

Note he improved big time in the second off the layoff race in July of last year; he was inching toward the winner in last and has drilled solidly since; out of the money twice at this distance; will likely be rolling late if at all.

Papa Tom

The stablemate in last ran 5th; maybe he just needed the last race; the 6/20 winner repeated in a $100K stakes, then was 2nd beaten a length in a $100K stakes; even after the decent try in June, fans didn't exactly go to the well at 22-1 and they were right on the money; not seeing it.

Fiddlers Afleet

Freshened by new trainer, he has plenty of back class off the stakes win last year; note it did take her over 7 weeks to post the recorded drill after the last race; pro was nearly 5 clear in last and the race came back okay as the 5th finisher took a $25K seller next out and the 7th finisher took a $30K CD claimer; 6/1 winner repeated in a $95K starter, then ran out of the money; can't be dismissed.

Chapman

Consistency has been his calling card; pinballed against gate two back, and he was a bit more keen to drill to kick off the month; over 6 clear on a surface he may not have adored in last; major threat right back.

Litigate

Note that May 16 race came back triple live and the 6/28 show horse cashed next out in a $20K claimer, then won for $25K; runner did take the overland route in last and he's proven in this league in open company; trainer has spotted them just fine all year with limited starters.

Race 5

In the Dark

All kinds of trouble in his comeback race last month, only his second start of the year; must deal with breaking from the fence for the first time but scheduled blinker removal may allow him a chance to relax in the early going; difficult call.

Mr. O'Leary

Sharp maiden voyage in May was followed by a troubled turf debut 3 months later; his sire won the G2 King's Bishop and 360K; the dam went 1 for 6 earning 27K; among the winning siblings is 35K earner Springfield Alley.

Bakken

There is a strong work tab to consider for this newcomer, son of Distorted Humor who won 8 of 23 and 769K (his progeny have won 119 out of 725 debuts); the dam won 2 of 13 and 72K; sib to 449K earner Justwhistledixie.

Green Gratto

Has displayed only brief speed up to now and despite the latest respectable gate breeze, seems an unlikely hero today; has to deal with several firsters and will likely wilt in the stretch.

Tiz for Tat

Stuck in second gear and will be vastly overbet once again; cuts back to a more favorable distance today and has shown an exceptionally steady set of Beyers; obvious true contender but still does not warrant odds-on status.

Moonluck

Game to maintain the place in his only start; his sire won 1 of 2 and 33K; the mom won 5 of 20 and 315K; sib to 103K earner Malibu Tide; draws right outside of the known speeds, a tactical advantage; the selection.

War Glory

Descendants of War Pass, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 1.58 million, have scored in 6 of 43 debuts; the dam won 4 of 15 and 256K; sib to multiple G3 type Endorsement who amassed 650K.

Solly's Mischief

His sire won 3 of 6 attempts and 597K; offspring of Into Mischief are 6 for 46 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 5 of 23 and 155K; sib to 213K earner Format V; the trainer/jockey team has scored with several longshots.

Race 6

Scribbling Sarah

Lone win was when rallying from far back over a less-than-firm SAR-turf course; her style seems to change with each race even racing on the lead 3-back; was troubled in last vs. the show finisher who posted a 79 Beyer speed figure in a next-out BEL alw. win; the 3-back winner repeated in a SAR-allowance with an 82 Beyer; projects to rally from mid-pack after saving all the ground from post 1.

Ideal Place

Best races occurred on BEL Inner Turf but has not performed nearly as well on today's Widener green; late run was too late in last but a good sign posting a new-Beyer Top 1st off the claim; defeated the 3-back show runner a next-out 72 speed figure BEL-20K-claiming winner.

White Sangria

The September, 2012, blowout graduation victory occurred sitting just off the pace and represents a field-best Beyer at today's distance on BEL Widener Turf; exits the 2nd-highest speed figure of her career 1st-time racing with blinkers in last when narrowly beaten by Atlantic's Smile at 1F longer than this; view as a major presence from bell-to-finish.

Your Time Is Up

Best game has been racing on fast dirt racing on the lead but have not seen that good gate speed since April; recent-turf losses were not very memorable fading in last but needed the race off an 86-layoff; did not fare well for this jockey in last but I Ortiz Jr yields 25% winners for the trainer since 2012.

Lumineuse

Her 1st start on BEL-Widener turf produced her worst finish ever in last when badly outrun by several of these; scored 1st time away from a high-percentage trainer in $46 upset fashion but off latest have her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Hidalgo Legacy

Sire is a dismal 1-for-97 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 1-for-3 grass dam (26K); is the only runner in the body of the field who has never raced on grass during career; 45 days since dueled into defeat on dirt vs the runner-up finisher who Beyered 62 in a next-out PRX-25K-claiming win.

Lady Nitro

Has not raced this short of a distance since July; graduated going long when sitting just off the pace when heavily backed at the betting widows; class in question with 4 of 5 races in maiden claimers now leaps up to face-NY alw. type.

Julesco

Claimed off a high-win percentage trainer by a high-win-percentage barn; has never raced this short of a distance during career middle moving in last when troubled; career-best Beyer was on the lead at much longer; lone win on a wet-main track and moving this one off turf would clearly move her up.

Atlantic's Smile

Just one race at 6F during career was a superb effort in a nose defeat; comes off back-to-back career-best Beyers the latest over today's turf course at longer; best game is breaking well to play catch me if you can; the workout for this does not overly entice and the barn is 2-for the last-28 with grass sprinters.

Courageous Karen

All 4 BEL turf races were contested on the Inner Turf racing on the Widener for the 1st time; speedster sat 2nd in the graduation victory; taking on winners for the 1st time is often any runner's toughest-class assignment; figures to press the pace wide then hopes to hang on for a share.

Therapy

Another who has competed on BEL Inner Turf only but gets the chance to compete on the Widener green today; just missed in last drilling a new-career-best Beyer as the win rider remains; have to go back to April to see a bad race on her form; hopes to overcome the wide-ground losing draw to sit just off the inside speed before trying to wear them down in deep stretch.

Eyes of Midas

Main Track Only entry exits a career-low Beyer 2nd off the claim and 1st time ever racing with front wraps on; the 2-back stakes loss saw the winner repeat next out in an AQU-optional claimer with a 61 speed figure; she is in with her lightest-weight assignment ever trying to bounce back to best form which we haven't seen since the November purchase.

Maxana

MTO is an outsider after being outrun at long odds going long; BEL graduation on dirt at 6F but was claimed off that June score and is 0-for-5 since with one show finish; the 3-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 80-69 in next-out BEL-optional-claiming wins.

Race 7

Benny's Bullet

Limited available data on sire with regard to his turf starters but he was a multiple G1 winner who won 9 of 20 starts for $2.3 million, and he didn't make a turf start; dam won once from five starts for 9k, and she didn't make a turf start.

Miss Loretta Lynn

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his first-time starters and with approximately 10% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from three turf starts, including 0-for-2 over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Daylasoul (1-4, 38k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 31k).

Touch the Star

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his first-time starters and with approximately 12% of his turf starters, and dam won once from four starts for 20k; this miss is a 1/2 to G1 winner Etoile Montante (7-16, 659k, including 2 of 7 North American turf starts for 340k); Rosario has won with 14 of 54 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Hide My Heart

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and G2 stakes placed dam won 2 of 13 starts for 107k, and she didn't make a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to minor stakes winner Byenne (4-11, 94k, including 2 of 3 turf starts for 43k) and Sky Victor (3-15, 98k, including 2 of 10 turf starts for 84k).

Pieces of Speight

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam won once from 14 starts for 42k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 20k; 200k purchase sports some good looking workouts and attracts Castellano.

Foxbeau

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to stakes winner Tiz Gianni (4-22, 201k, including 3 of 18 turf starts for 174k); Pompa-owned miss boasts an experience edge over her rivals in here.

Jamaica Bay

It would have been nice to have seen this 80k purchase show more in her career debut and her pedigree suggests that she'll be better off routing than sprinting; after a strong Saratoga meeting, this outfit has been quiet lately.

Anea

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and multiple stakes winning dam won 3 of 7 starts for 175k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to stakes winner Artest (3-14, 162k, including 2of 9 turf starts for 106k); Narlinger-owned miss goes out for a barn that can be live with a firster.

Alice and Trixie

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and minor stakes winning dam won 9 of 60 starts for 183k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Charco (1-12, 47k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 26k).

Likeuasafriend

This race doesn't have to fall apart if it has to be moved to the main track and he was basically ignored in the wagering in his career debut against maiden claiming competition; he's going to need to be ready for an improved performance if he's to see his number posted on top after this one is run.

Race 9

Bit Bustin

Cuts back a bit after tiring from her pace efforts in the local return run; filly moves to the fence for another crack at the level and doesn't look to face a lot of pace company if they decide to push her to the top; she's had her share of chances, but with a switch to a top pilot it looks as if they'll have to run her down to win.

Swift Taylor

Returns to the local circuit after trailing every step of the way in the Finger Lakes stake last month; she ran ok this trip and level back in June, but note that the pace in front of her was quite quick and she hasn't run anything close to that one before or since that day; have to side with others on the win end.

Let Me Be Nuts

Responded to the new shades in breaking her maiden on the surface switch here last month; filly earned a pretty competitive number in that score and she's likely to find herself a little closer to the top in a field without a lot of early foot; barn has had a great meeting from limited starters and they look to have a solid repeat threat in this improving sophomore.

Nonnie Connie

Goes turf to dirt for an outfit that hits at a big clip with the move of late; she's run well over the local main track in the past and maybe the recent sprints have her early foot sharpened enough to get her more involved in the pace today; with the circuit's top pilot taking the call she's another capable of grabbing a share.

Familyofroses

Field's highest last out Beyer earner exploded when the hood was removed for her first dirt try and ran away from a turf meant bunch; she'll get off the fence in her first with winners for a barn that keeps them going once they get them good; anything close to what she ran last time will make her awfully tough to handle from close range; one to beat.

Necessary Luxury

Mare hasn't hit the board in quite a long time and now she'll stretch out off a couple of sprint tries for this low profile outfit; she does catch a field without a lot of lick so maybe she can be more prominent early, but she hasn't been a serious threat since shipping here in the spring and is tough to get excited about, even in here.

My Unbridled Storm

Barn does a nice job with its stretchouts and this gal does enter this off a troubled sprint run; gray has been stuck in this condition for quite a long time, however, and there's not a lot to sugget she'll be set to finally break through in this spot; looking elsewhere for the winner.

Milkyyourway

Took a good step forward in her local return and now she'll shorten up a half panel which looks like it could be to her benefit; it has been over a year since this limited winner has won, but that maiden score did come over a wet local main track and maybe her last is a sign she's back on her best game; contender.