Belmont: Closer Looks for October 12, 2013

Race 1

Patty and Nooche

Middle moved into a duel in his debut at Saratoga, a respectable performance; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.63 million; the dam won 4 of 14 and 46K; winning siblings include 49K earner Indian Treatment.

Reach for Yield

Very fine gate breeze turned in 6 days ago; his sire is world-class Curlin who had lifetime earnings of 10.5 million (whose progeny have scored in 8 of 87 initial attempts); the dam won 1 of 6 and 9K; sib to 209K earner Lucky Pulpit.

Ackerman Road

Strong half-mile workouts on view for this son of Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Unbridled's Song (his descendants have scored in 113 out of 836 debuts); the dam won 1 of 7 and 23K; sib to 93K earner Stage Street.

First Bid

Worked the exact same as his mate on the morning of 10/6; this colt's sire won the Kentucky Derby and 4.38 million; offspring of Street Sense are 17 for 154 as far as winning their first venture; the dam won 1 of 8 and 44K; sib to 20K earner Etar.

Red Knot

Sired by Birdstone, winner of the Belmont and Travers, who amassed 1.57 million and whose progeny have scored in 9 percent of their first outing; the dam never competed; winning sibs include 310K earner Love to Tell; respect.

King Kongrats

Did not fire over a sloppy track first out but returns with several notable changes to consider; his sire won a G2 and 998K overall; the dam was without a victory in 5 tries; sib to 59K earner Thoroughly.

Who's Z Daddy

Much trouble in his unveiling of a month ago; his sire won a G2 and 517K; the dam won 3 of 16 and 88K; sib to G3 victor Mr. Bowling; a square price is assured despite the trainer's excellent record with second-time starters.

Smarty Burns

Identical workouts of late; the colt's sire won a G1 and 337K; offspring of the prolific Smart Strike have scored in 112 out of 778 initial attempts; the dam won her only race and 15K; sib to 162K earner Supreme; Hall of Fame trainer Mott has been red-hot of late. By Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Katmanstu

He brings some early speed with him but it's tough to back him with any confidence until he shows more through the stretch in his races; runner up from latest won next out at Sar on 7/28 going 1 1/8m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 72 Beyer; Maragh has won with 6 of 19 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Brass Pear

He hasn't finished better than seventh or within 16 lengths of the winner in his first six starts, and that includes a start over turf; he has the look of an outsider.

Mr. Masterpiece

He's another who hasn't made much of an impression to this point in his career and he's going to need to show up with a much improved performance in order to have a say in the outcome in this spot.

Sunnysider

He appears to be one of the more legitimate options to consider in here and he's being reunited with Ortiz who has been aboard for a couple of his better efforts; he's quick enough to get himself forwardly placed right from the bell and not going to be surprised if he's involved in the running throughout.

Polaris Dream

He's been in pretty good form since moving into this barn and being placed back over turf, and his connections will hope that the weight allowance with an apprentice can prove to be a key; at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Daddy Dont Preach

110k purchase is by a solid turf sire and he deserves another chance to see what he can do after basically being outrun every step of the way in his career debut; not going to count out the possibility of this one being ready for a sharper try at second asking.

Charity Reins

He merits respect against these based on what he's shown in his three turf starts and he exits a productive race; runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 5/18 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 75 Beyer and 3rd finisher won next out at Bel on 6/1 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 72 Beyer.

Here Comes Tommy

Obviously his latest effort wasn't one of his better performances, but maybe he needed the race after taking some time off, and his two turf starts prior to that look good when compared to what these have shown to be capable of; runner up from latest won next out at Bel 9/29 going 6f over turf MSW 74 Beyer.

Key Decision

He's going to need to find a way to show more in order to prove to be a player in this spot and he's been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his two turf attempts; he's another to list among the outsiders.

Elroi

He exits the same race as today's rival Here Comes Tommy and he recorded his best finish to date while sporting blinkers for the first time; runner up from latest won next out at Bel 9/29 going 6f over turf MSW 74 Beyer; must consider.

Cat Man Fu

The 0-for-36 career mark alone is a reason to look in another direction and his most recent race after a layoff wasn't one of his sharper performances; prefer to look toward others.

Privatize

He earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure in his latest outing and that race has produced a couple of next-out winners; winner from latest won next out here on 10/6 going 1 1/16m vs. 14k OPC's with an 85 Beyer, and 3rd finisher won next out here on 10/3 going 7f vs. MSW rivals with an 80 Beyer.

Chrisandlorisposse

He has a couple of respectable performances over dirt on his card to look at and he ran well the last time he moved turf-to-dirt; this looks like it can be a decent spot for him to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf. By Brian Pochman

Race 4

Omos Journey

Hood goes on for the surface switch and cut back to sprint after again failing to threaten late on the local sod; maybe he's got a little more to offer here and his pedigree does suggest he'd be better on the main track but his lone dirt start wasn't much.

Giulio Cesari

Sire gets about 8% first out winners from his offspring and the SP dam's 4 wins came on the green prior to dropping 3 main track sprint winners from 5 foals to race; barn doesn't win a lot of races and the drills aren't anything special.

St. Sincere

Five year old has had his share of chances on other surfaces and now he'll give dirt a try; he drew outside in each of those last 2 turf spins and maybe the move closer to the fence helps him as he does have early lick; kin to 5 main track winners, he's got a right to be a big threat in this lackluster field; contender.

Silver Shot

Wasn't quick enough to force the pace when moved to the lawn last time, but his prior tries on dirt saw him flaunting his early lick before backing out of it; low percentage outfit will call upon another new pilot today and they don't do so well on the surface switch; don't think he'll prove a threat in the lane.

No Nukes

Statebred tries open company in his return to the local main track for just his third start of the year; his comebacker at the trip earned him a number that looks to fit well in here and maybe he's got a little more to offer late with the last out turf route behind him; one to consider.

Perfect Coconut

Failed to lift a hoof when unveiled for this price last month and he boasts just one slow interim breeze for this one; 5 year old is kin to a couple of sprint winners and maybe he's better with the initial experience behind him, but this barn doesn't win too often and the new pilot has been blanked at the stand; looms a long price.

Woburn

Field's most experienced runner made a mid-race run at the leaders in his local return but had little left for the drive and now he'll move in to face open company foes; maybe a better timed ride helps as he does switch to a new pilot, but the barn doesn't win often and his normal effort doesn't appear fast enough to legitimately factor on the win end here; maybe for a minor award.

Commanding Officer

He's another statebred trying open company in this spot and he'll also be making his first start in over half a year for a new barn that does ok with this type; he did run on ok late despite plenty of trouble when last sighted across town and he figures to be a nice price in here, but he'll certainly need to improve from a figure standpoint. By Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Aesthetique

Has been screaming out for more yardage in 1st pair and gets it here; slight 2nd-time out improvement however see the rider from first pair siding with Kelly's Prize today; the trainer is 1-for the last-87 with turf starters; saves ground then makes one run.

Backstretch Lady

Adds blinkers after being outfinished at longer; the hood on angle was not very effective in the career debut; moves all the way inside after wide trips in last pair including latest from post 10; seeks the correct distance; is another who wants to save ground then make one-sustained run.

Manner of Speaking

Some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out and goes for a trainer not known to win with 1sters which makes the show finish that more impressive; the worktab for this does not bowl you over but see tons of upside today off the 31-day freshening.

Kelly's Prize

Reunites with the 2-back rider who seemingly had other options here; he is 0-for the last-14 piloting for the trainer at BEL; needed last start off the 50-day layoff when bobbling at the break but enters with a positive-Beyer pattern; good dirt workouts for this and posted her best finish on the main track.

Longride to Wisdom

Sire is 36-for-279 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a stakes-winning dam (4-for-17, 136K) who finished off the board in her only grass start; stalked the pace in the debut then had no run when the real running began; trainer is 1-for the last-23 with 2YO starters.

Aviendra

Ran to the 44-1 debut odds when breaking last then passing a few; adds Lasix for start 2 both improvement angles; obviously off the lone attempt it appears more distance than 7F will be needed to see very-best form; 0-for-15 jockey-trainer combo since 2012 does not add to the appeal.

Freud's Sunset

Try to catch me; posted a 29-point 2nd-time out Beyer speed figure improvement when adding blinkers which produced a field-best number; keeps the wakeup rider who yields 22% winners for the trainer at BEL since 2012; cutting back 1F adds to the appeal.

G Note

Sire is 24-for-266 with 1st-turf starters; 23-for-187 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a Grade 2-stakes-winning dam (5-for-16, 392K) who finished off the board in her only grass start; she produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race including SW-Mineralogist (5-for-15, 270K); the 2 foals are 3-0-0-0 combined on turf.

Under Scrutiny

The addition of blinkers produced a career-low Beyer when outrun throughout on dirt; removes the hood and is back on grass for this seeking a lot better effort; middle moved at longer 2-back; have her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Lucky Nancy E.

Adds blinkers and we were hoping to see an improved worktab for this but do not view anything in the morning drills which would suggest a huge-wakeup call; the debut runner-up finisher Beyered 64 in her next-out BEL-MSW win.

Possetivevibration

Sire is 13-for-165 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 6-for-30 dam (79K) who finished off the board in her only grass start; 3 foals to race on grass are 0-for-5 combined; hopes for better stamina 2nd-time out but the added distance is a huge concern.

Fire Ship

Main Track Only entry's sire is 3-for-16 with 2-year-old 1st-time starters; is out of a 3-for-13 dam (100K) who produced 3 winners from 4 other foals to race including 35K-earner Nettie Hughes (3-for-22); was not overwhelmed by the worktab for the unveiling.

Fee and Sugar

MTO sat midpack in latest then showed nothing at shorter when a lot more was expected bet down to 4-1 debut odds; wish the worktab stood out more for the 1st start in 52 days; the 22%-winning 2YO trainer adds to the appeal for improvement.

Peach Lake

MTO wokeup when switched to dirt; she was screaming out for more distance and gets it here; obviously the debut experience then adding Lasix for last lifted her 18 Beyer points; may ultimately need even more than 7F to see very-best form.

Star Grazing

MTO competed in a debut-key race as the winner repeated to make it 2-for-2 capturing a BEL Grade 1 with an 88 Beyer; defeated the show runner who Beyered 60 in her next-out FL-121K stakes victory; ran well enough on turf in last and wish the worktab stood out more for a 6%-winning 2YO trainer since 2012. By Art Gropper

Race 6

M P Joe

It took gelding awhile to get there and the efforts vs. winners leave much to be desired; at least he is back with state-breds; apparently not much of a work horse, he was beaten 11 in the last return effort and with his style will need tons of help on the front end; passing.

Half Nelson

Training forwardly for the return, note his sire commands only a $4K fee but this guy brought $100K at auction; no real help from lone sibling who is just one for 12, would expect him to be on the muscle fresh but there are others with designs on the top; lean toward watching a comeback before getting overly involved.

Fiona's Hero

At least he broke his maiden here; not thrilled with the eased line two back and he gave up the ghost pretty easily in last; at least he has been fit enough to drill several times since the last effort; try to get a good look at him on the track before taking a swing.

Roaring Conquest

One for 28 is a near impossible number to bet into with any degree of confidence; he's been value in the gimmicks in this league a couple of times and that is where his strength may again lie; the route could have dulled him a bit in last; could find himself behind the 8 ball turning for the wire.

Read the Proposal

The fact he won the debut gives him a right to fire fresh; both of the races vs. winners were dismal though and one has to figure if he is just a mud lark the way he freaked to kick off the career; one angle to think about: Solis was aboard for the career top Beyer.

Crafty Dreamer

Colt had to be off a year for a pretty serious reason; hung wide in the return, but he showed signs of life in last and returned to drill sharply on Monday; could see him sitting a nice stalk and kick trip; interesting.

Soul House

Colt showed career speed in last and now has the three races to draw from; place horse two back won at this very level next out with a 92 Beyer; 4th finisher in last took a $20K optional next out and the 5th finisher beat N1X rivals with an 80 Beyer; major player.

Ambassador Bridge

Even after the decent third in last fans did not exactly go to the well at 9-1 and they were right on the money; the 7/4 winner took the $150K Albany next out; needs a rebound run after last effort.

Stone Rocks

Switch to Lezcano worked for the diploma but runner is out to prove that 25-1 score was no fluke; third and 4th finishers in last won in this league next out with 85 and 84 Beyers respectively; not seeing it. By Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Mr. Commons

Five year old has yet to get back to the form he showed earlier in his career, though he did chase Wise Dan in 2 of his 4 starts this season; he's capable of firing fresh when right and maybe this bunch will be more to this miler's liking, but he'll be tackling 9 panels while making his course debut today and it has been quite a while since he's seen the winner's circle; limiting his use to underneath in exotics.

Swift Warrior

Beat a softer bunch at odds on at Parx last month and now he'll catch a sigificantly better field in his return to graded stakes company; he has won twice at today's distance and does enter this off a good looking trip score, but he pays the price for it with a heavier impost and may not be up to moving forward in this spot; prefer others.

Exclusive Strike

Useful gelding was quite good on the green earlier in the year before trying the G1 ranks in the local course and he ended up running well from out of it in that one,too; subsequent upstate marathon heat at that level proved too much for him, but he's been given some time to get over the effort and he certainly likes this sod; don't know that he'll get a contested clip to run into, but on his best he's capable of getting involved for a share.

Plainview

Speedster gets a new pilot for the stretchout after failing to last in the ungraded stake at a shorter trip over a good local course; there doesn't appear to be much to go with him early in this one and that could provide him with a tactical advantage as he takes on this tougher bunch; hasn't been able to take that next step in the stakes ranks, but expect they'll have to come and get him to win.

Howe Great

Ran a good one ofr second money behind a front running winner in the G3 Poker here in Independence Day and then ran into a Monmouth SW who went on to take both the G2 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga and the G1 Shadwell Mile at Keeneland over Wise Dan last weekend; maybe it was just the slow clip that hampered his run last time and he has had some time to get ready for this one.

Za Approval

Runner up in his last 2 G1 miles stretches out a panel in his local return; he's improved signficantly as a 5 year old and there's little shame in finishing second to Wise Dan like he did in Canada last out; while 9 panels is a different ballgame, on his best he does give the indication he'll take to the added trip and he did return to breeze ok after that tough effort in his return from the summer break; he's the one they'll have to beat.

London Lane

Shoud have some bottom for the cut back to this trip after competing in longer heats of late; wasn't very competitive in those last 2 and his G2 Colonial Turf Cup score was his lone effort showing that's probably good enough to win this; have to look elsewhere for the winner.

Paris Vegas

Just missed against a softer bunch here a few weeks back while earning his best number in some time; he's been a solid cheak earner this year and though he hasn't hit the board in either of his 9 panel tries he may not have much trouble with it in his current form and the price does figure to be right.

Tetradrachm

Expected better from him in the upstate Baruch last time, but he was chasing a loose leader and maybe the ground was a little too heavy for him to handle; he's been breezing ok of late for this and maybe the added trip benefits him, but he'll start from an outside slot and there does again figure to be some give in the ground.

Boisterous

Outside drawn 6 year old looked like he'd really turned the corner in taking the G1 Man O War here 3 months back, but his 2 subsequent spins ended in disappointment; maybe the return to this middle distance helps as he did take the 9 panel G2 Monmouth earlier in the year and he is this heat's defending champ; barn hasn't had much luck here, but with some bottom in him on the turn back and the meet's top pilot taking the call he could prove to be the main danger.

Percussion

Speedy MTO didn't have enough to go on late while tackling 2 turns at this trip upstate and now he'll return to the configuration of his lost recent score, albeit 5 months back; ran pretty well on the front end when sent 12 panels in the local slop in June so expect they'll let him roll from the bell in this one; they'll have him to catch and beat if the rains wash this off.

Praetereo

Ran out of ground when cut back to sprint in his third start of the meeting last week; MTO's early interest should be sharpened for the stretch back out and the barn does boast recent luck with its quick returnees; first part of the coupling should prove a big threat if he gets to go.

Don Dulce

Barn's other half makes his first start off their claim after offering little when finishing behind today's mate at a shorter trip last month; MTO's prior few efforts were shard and he did score over a wet track in Arkansas before being DQed back in the spring. By Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Ithastobegeorge

Lone win was right on the lead when claimed but have seen declining Beyer speed figures since racing so well 1st off the claim; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 94 in his next-out SAR alw. win; has been working well for this and expecting him to flash a lot better early foot today.

Freeride

Dominating wet-main track performance nearly 7 months ago 2nd-time out which looks even better since the runner-up and 6th-place finishers Beyered 78-55 in next-out PRX-PEN-MSW wins; high-percentage long-layoff trainer adds to the appeal that he will fire a biggie right off the bench.

Quinby Pete

Gate-to-wire in the maiden breaker but catches a field top heavy with other pacesetters; stretches out to the longest distance of his career while a bounce candidate drilling the career-best Beyer right off nearly a 1-year layoff; the 3-back winner repeated in a GP-optional claimer with an 88 speed figure; beat the show runner that day a next-out 62 Beyer OP-MSW winner.

Demon's Deputy

72 days since rallying at longer in a key race; trainer nails only 4% winners since 2012 with runners off similar freshenings; the 5th and 7th-place finishers from last Beyered 73-68 in next-out CD-30K and SAR-25K-claiming wins.

Odea

Doing the rain dance as all 3 wins and the career-best Beyer were accomplished on less-than-fast race tracks; his only fast start was in January testing the winner who repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 92 Beyer; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 90 in his next-out BEL allowance win.

Mewannarose

Just 1 other race during career tested at this long of a distance was a last-place finish; shocked the world in last 2nd off the claim and racing back on a fast track which is his best surface; late runner gets a hot pace to rally into for this; the 3-back winner repeated in a SAR-75K claimer with an 89 Beyer.

Truth Is

Did not live up the challenge of the wet track and the 9F distance for last; 29%-winning route-to-sprint trainer adds to the appeal; clearly is a major player if can just repeat that debut effort rallying from 5th which seems like could be a winning trip with so much gate speed signed on for this.

Confrontation

Debut represents the field's best Beyer when racing right on the lead defeating the runner-up finisher who Beyered 74 in his next-out SAR-40K-maiden claiming win; displayed versatility and rating ability to make it 2-for-2; done nothing wrong so far but ability on a fast race-track is still somewhat of mystery.

Whatabouthonor

Been working well for this but did not view the same type of gate speed in last as displayed in some of the other attempts; 126-day absence since posting his worst-career placement in a key race; the runner-up and 5th-place finishers from last Beyered 90-87 in next-out BEL allowance and $17,500-claiming wins.

Able Baker Charlie

Graduated in a race taken off the grass facing much lesser than this rallying from last; the 1st start facing winners is often any runner's toughest-class assignment while drawn on the far outside so sure to lose valauble ground; would be a surprise. By Art Gropper

Race 9

Embarr

She's been beaten by a number of today's rivals in her recent races and this stakes winning mare is going to need to show up with a career best effort if she has any thoughts on the top prize in this spot; going to look toward others.

My Perfect Ten

Like what she's done in her four starts this year and her latest performance over turf at Ellis Park was her sharpest performance to date; runner up from latest won next out at Sar on 8/1 going 1m over turf vs. 62k OPC's with an 88 Beyer.

Samitar (GB)

She's very capable of getting the better of a field like this on her best day and she was sharp in getting the job done in her latest outing, and the runner up from that race returned to win next out at Bel on 9/25 going 7f over turf in a 100k stakes with a 94 Beyer.

Abaco

Grade 3 stakes placed mare ran well in her latest outing, and if it wasn't for her having some trouble getting herself clear of traffic through the stretch, she would have gotten the job done; she looks like she's on top of her game right now and Rosario has won with 7 of 21 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Pianist

She's one of two live looking horses signed on in here for the Brown barn and she ran big when finishing right behind a G1 winner in Laughing in her latest outing; Laughing moved on to win her next start here on 9/28 going 1 1/4m over turf in a G1 with a 96 Beyer; look for her to sit a comfortable trip right off of the early speed of Assateague.

Ruthenia

She's clearly capable of a better effort than what she showed up with in her latest outing and she put in a solid late bid when finishing right behind today's rival Assateague just two starts ago; she's a G3 winner over turf and note the success that Lezcano has had riding for this barn.

Assateague

She might find herself setting a comfortable early pace, and even though Pianist won't be far behind, she doesn't figure to be overly aggressive in pressing this one through the opening stages; third place finisher from latest won next out at Kee on 10/5 going 1m over turf in a G1 with a 98 Beyer.

Royal Lahaina

She's looking to make her first start for the Pletcher barn and this will be a favorable spot for this stakes winner to land in if this race has to be moved to the main track; looks like Ortiz will have a live call regardless of the surface that this race is run over, and this is his first call.

Lady Cohiba

She carries multiple stakes winning credentials with her and she'll merit top contender status against these if this race gets taken off the turf; note the way her form has improved since adding blinkers a number of starts ago.

Moment in Dixie

Three of her four starts this year have been solid performances and she's run well in all three of her starts over the main track here; she ran well routing at Saratoga last year and she finished right behind today's rival Lady Cohiba. By Brian Pochman