Belmont: Closer Looks for October 11, 2013

Race 1

Take Down Two

He can be closer to the pace than he found himself in his most recent start, when he was bumped early; one start prior, he contested the pace; like that he has been a popular claim, and that he's a 16-time winner whose dam was a Grade 3 winner of $419K; he also can be closer to the pace than a number of these, a few of which are turning back in distance; coupled with win candidate Kingsford Drive.

Frazil

He's one of a few in here turning back in distance, and note he is a stakes winner at this six-furlong trip; looking for him to be bidding from off the pace on account of the distance move; a drawback is that he must again face four who finished in front of him Sept. 21.

Haverhill

His comeback from a two-month freshening was a useful one, as he pushed the pace on a muddy track before regressing; can move forward in his second race back, and suspect he might also benefit if the strip is fast as his dirt win came on such a surface last March; can share.

Tummel

He's shown improved speed of late and in his last start was second to Kingsford Drive, who appears to be the one to beat in this spot; in that race, he finished in front of a few of these; has tactical speed, and might get a nice trip behind Kingsford Drive and Take Down Two; leading contender.

Point Taken

He's cutting back in distance and as such looking for him to be making his case from off the pace; was third to probable favorite Kingsford Drive two starts ago, and in that race he was also turning back in distance; owns a competitive series of Beyer Figures and a nice record at Belmont; leading contender.

Quick Money

He caught a wet track in his most recent start and might benefit if the strip is fast as his last two wins on form came on dry tracks; was part of a quick turf sprint in August and might be sitting on a peak race here in his third race back from the break; dam was a Grade 3-placed winner of $156K; can share.

Kingsford Drive

He defeated a handful of these in his last start, when he wired his rivals at this level at Bel; the race was his first in close to two months, and for the effort he popped a career-high Beyer Figure; the number stands out in this spot, as does his speed as he looks like a candidate to again take these gate to wire; choice.

Race 2

Return Abroad

She showed a little something in her career debut when finishing third but it would have been nice to have seen her show more than she did at second asking when getting Lasix for the first time; prefer to look toward others.

Dramatize

Her form routing over turf looks solid when compared to that of her rivals in here and it's worth noting that she's making her first start for a barn that does well with new acquisitions; she has a live look to her in this spot.

Race and Shine

She was ignored in the wagering for her career debut and she was basically outrun at every point of call before beating only three rivals to the finish; on a positive note, her dam won 3 of 12 turf starts for 90k, and now she gets a rider switch to Castellano.

Fancy 'n Flight

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his first-time starters and with approximately 9% of his turf starters, and multiple G1 stakes placed dam won 4 of 27 starts for 350k, including 2 of 10 turf starts for 127k; this filly is a full to Mr. Enrico (4-22, 141k over turf).

Al's Gal

She's by a top turf sire and she might appreciate the drop in class for her second career start; third place finisher from debut won next out here on 10/3 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 70 Beyer.

Miss Lilian Taylor

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and dam won once from six starts for 24k, and she didn't make a turf start; connections will hope for better with a move to turf and the addition of blinkers.

Looksgoodfromhere

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 10 starts for 53k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Durer (4-32, 61k, including 2 of 17 turf starts for 24k); 3rd place finisher from latest won next out at Lrl on 10/3 going 6f vs. 25-20k MCL's with a 38 Beyer.

Theresas Candyrose

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and dam won 2 of 13 starst for 59k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 19k; this barn can be live with a firster and Maragh has won with 6 of 19 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Race 4

Invading Humor

Tries better off the brief freshening after wiring her rivals first time going long upstate; there is some other speed in here, but the inside draw should help her secure a good spot going down the backside and she has shown improvement since switched to the green in early summer so maybe she'll have more to offer today; consider.

Roses for Romney

First part off the coupling lost her best shot at the break in her Saratoga finale and after attempting to recover this front runner faltered at odds on; she did run big in defeat 2 back at the level and one of her more impressive scores did come over the local course where she's been in the money in each of her 3 spins; if she breaks alertly and the gal drawn to her inside isn't as keyed up early this time today's result could be much different; contender.

Adriatic Dream

Late running sophomore exits the stakes ranks in which she wasn't much of a threat last out; she should at least get an honest pace to chase here and maybe her blowout last weekend has her a little closer to the top, but the shorter trip may not help her much in this spot; prefer others on the win end.

Love Stanza Chance

She's another dropping out of the stakes ranks where she wasn't any type of threat in either of her last 2 starts; her local sod spin against weaker in July earned her best number in some time and she likes a course with some give in it so award her some extra points if the rains come.

Elusive Rumour

Barn's other half also has Castellano named so only one part of the entry will go; it's been a while since this gal has seen the winner's circle and she has had her stamina issues this year; they've given her some time since the Spa sprint prep and the barn's numbers on the stretchout are excellent; worth a look if she goes.

Funny Money

Wide trip did her in first time at the level upstate when unable to get to the money finishers; gray should get an honest clip to run at in this one and she did unleash a nice run into solid fractions off the freshening 2 back; rider aboard for each of her 2 wins returns today for a barn whose runners can't be overlooked.

Simplistic

Took a big step forward at a long price second time on the lawn at Saratoga, but she did set soft early splits over a speed favoring course in that one; lone local sod try wasn't much and the presence of other speed drawn inside will make the task tougher for her from here.

Mah Jong Maddnes

Tries better off the confidence building, career best Beyer score against cheaper at the trip today; filly wasn't abe to get to a couple of these 2 back upstate, but that one came at 2 turns and her lack of speed may have played against her in that one.

Caribean Beat

Outside drawn filly returns to the scene of 2 of her 3 career scores after failing to factor off a wide Spa trip last time out; wasn't beaten much for second money by one of today's foes 2 back at the level up there and she should get some pace to run at in this spot; giving her the nod to get back on track and run these down.

Royal Suspicion

MTO has hit the board in all but one of her last 7 starts since returning from the early spring freshening; lone local spin wasn't very encouraging and she's settled for quite a few minor awards but she does own a wet track score and she won't be catching all that much if this gets rained off.

Mlle Margaux

MTO steps up off another weak effort on the local sod; she did upset cheaper in the Saratoga slop 3 starts back but don't think she's good enough to contend for the top spot with these right now; maybe for a share.

Race 5

Skinny Margarita

Devu vu for this filly as she breaks from the same post, races at the same distance; her sire won the Kentucky Derby and 4.38 million while the dam lost her only race; among the winning siblings is 465K earner Lismore Knight; rode strong rail in that debut.

You Take the Cake

Although her 13th maiden start did not prove lucky, she gets the flow today and should offer much better odds than in previous efforts; latest blowout was one of her best and she warrants inclusion in the trifecta approach at the very least.

Lovely Bella

Still learning the game and was clearly trounced by Skinny Margarita 2 weeks ago; despite the fact that she was in definite need of the race, it is unlikely she can be a sudden factor today; pass until more enthusiasm is shown.

Simplie Sinister

Has beaten one horse in 3 starts and has failed at various distances; the last pair of a.m. drills are fair but it still seems inconceivable she can land a major share today no matter how the pace unfolds.

Transit Express

After a fine first run at Saratoga, she was caught wide in her second venture here only 9 days ago; her sire won a G2 and a G3 en route to banking 450K; the dam was without victory in 4 attempts; there are no winning sibs to report; worth some follow-up.

Flamingo Lane

Rode the favorable rail on 9/18 but made no impact; it was a much needed tightener, however; her sire won a G1 and 661K overall; the dam went zero for 2 lifetime; there are no winning siblings to highlight; difficult call.

Make Me a Prophet

Adds blinkers and free falls down the ladder today; twice a beaten chalk, she could not have found a much softer field locally and should be within striking range with a clean getaway; bound to be an underlay once again; very tricky.

Myperfectvalentine

Wheels right back and drops below the purchase price for the first time; those facts, combined with the return of Castellano in the irons, makes her the right value play in our book; set a very pressured pace in her sole attempt at seven-eighths; consider.

Race 6

Status of Forces

He's been beaten by a number of these in his recent races and he's going to need to find a way to produce a sharper performance if he's planning on turning the tables on those rivals in this one; perhaps a spot underneath in the exotics is within reach, but looking in another direction for the top spot.

Minnie Punt

Multiple stakes winner has run well in back-to-back starts prior to this and he fits in against competition of this caliber; maybe there's something to be said for both Castellano and Velasquez riding elsewhere in here, but Cohen gets plenty of live calls from Jacobson.

Sneaky Kitten

Stakes placed colt goes out for Ramsey and Maker, and he has to be viewed as being a top contender in this spot; however, there is some cause for pause when considering him for the top spot when seeing that he doesn't have any issue with settling for a minor award.

Karakorum Legend

One of two signed on in here for the Rice barn, and not only does Rice own this one, but she sees fit to ride Velasquez here; multiple stakes placed gelding has run a number of nice races over the Belmont Park turf; obvious player.

Front

His form has been solid since being placed back over turf in April and he's going to appreciate the class relief after facing G3 competition at Saratoga in his latest outing; Maragh has been aboard for a few of his better efforts.

Suilleabhain

Sunriver has been a poor influence as a turf sire, and even though this gelding deserves credit for the winning performance he produced in his first start for this barn in his latest outing, he's going to need to step it up over that effort to get the job done against these.

Lemon Peel

He's never run a race that is fast enough to suggest that he can keep up with the top contenders in this spot and he was beaten by a few of these in his latest outing while gving turf another try, a race that saw him go to post at over 50-1.

Alarmed Ndangerous

Like the idea of this gelding getting a rider switch as he's had his share of excuses lately, but it is worth noting that C.V. is aboard the other Rice-trained starter in here; he has a live look to him in this spot and Ortiz has won with 21 of 67 (31%) mounts for this barn in 2013, including 5 of 11 (45%) at the current meeting.

Sky Blue Pink

His best effort is strong enough to get him into the mix against these but you have to go back more than year to find the last time he showed up with one of his better races; wouldn't consider him a total surprise, but others entice more.

Smokin Candy

This looks like it will be an ideal spot for this stakes placed gelding to make his first start for new connections if this race has to be moved to the main track; he has a number of solid performances over dirt to look at and he won't mind if there's a little moisture in the surface.

Race 7

Hillhouse High

Cuts back after just missing at odds on while breaking from the outside slot in her second career start upstate; filly has the speed to be prominent from the outset with the move inside and the meet's top pilot returns for a barn that excels with its runners off this type of freshening; interesting to note that this gal's dam and her other sibs to race failed hit the board on the green in 6 combined tries over the stuff, but she can clearly handle it; field's lone runner with surface experience figures to again get hammered at the windows, but they'll have her to beat.

Chief Dante

Gets a new pilot and shades for her return from the freshening for a barn that doesn't have a lot of luck with its first time turfers; they did pay 220K for her at auction and she did run into a pretty good field first out; sire does get 10% first time surface winners from his offspring but both the dam and her lone foal to try the green failed to hit the board over it.

Lexi Morgan

Proved little match for the top 2 in her local sprint debut and the winner of that heat did go on to finish unplaced in the G1 Frizette here last weekend; barn hits at a terrific rate with its second time starters and they do a pretty nice job with both their first turfers and those switching surfaces as well; sire gets 10% winners from his first time turfers and the dam dropped 4 grass winners including G2 SW turfer and 513K earner Hudson Steele.

Truly Mizzed

Boasts some solid recent breezes for her debut for an outfit that has done ok of late right out of the box and a top pilot takes the call; sire gets 8% overall first out winners and 11% first time surface winners from his offspring and she's the first foal to race out of a limited sprint winning dam who never tried the green.

Hardly

Sire gets 10% winners from both his overall debut runners and those trying the green for the first time; she's the first foal to race out of a first out juvenile winning dam who was off the board in her lone turf spin; nice to see Lezcano take the call for a barn that did break the long dry run with newcomers a couple of weeks back.

Madaket Millie

Sire gets 10% first out winners and 9% first time surface winners from his offspring; dam who her juvenile debut run before failing to hit the board in one try on the grass; her 2 sibs to race are a combined 0 for 14 lifetime with half of those losses coming on the footing; sharp barn doesn't reach out for this pilot often, but when they do collaborate they fare rather well.

Julia Tutwiler

Chased a subsequent repeater in the solid first out Saratoga sprint but after a rough break offered very little on the stretchout here last month; pilot aboard for the initial experience shows up for the turf debut and the bar ndoes hit at a decent clip on the surface switch; sire gets 10% first time turf winners from his offspring and the G3 SP dam never tried the footing prior to dropping a main track route winner from 2 other foals to race.

Race 8

Newbie

Winless in her last 12 races since an AQU-dirt Miler March, 2012, when scoring right on the lead; has been outpunched in the lane by many of these in recent races; best hope would be to make the lead then keep on going but with Sentimental Lass here the frontend should be hot.

Hundred Acre Wood

20-1 morning-line odds as an MTO Wednesday; figures to save ground from mid-pack then hopes to rally past the gate speed; exits her lowest Beyer speed figure since April then idle 43 days for a 4%-winning fresh trainer; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Kelli Got Frosty

2 of her 3 wins were accomplished on wet-race tracks; 99 days away since chasing the winner from last who captured a Del Mar Grade 1 next out with an 89 Beyer; likes to be forwardly placed and hopes to sit just off Sentimental Lass early before getting 1st run on the closers.

Sentimental Lass

All 4 wins right on the lead; little doubt what the strategy is for this; 86 days since latest stakes loss; her last time on BEL dirt following a sizeable layoff was a dull performance; showed some heart in latest missing the break then beaten under 3 lengths for all the money; the 4-back winner repeated in a BEL-98K stakes with an 86 Beyer; new trainer pops just 10% winners 1st-time out with newly-acquired runners; know her early but unsure about late.

La Bella Valeria

Late runner posted a new Beyer speed figure Top in her return to BEL-fast dirt; best game is stalking the speed and has some frontrunners signed on here likely to fly early with stamina issues; the 0-for-11 jockey-trainer combo does not help the cause for placing a win bet but hard to deny this one's closing chances of landing in the exotics.

Fiftyfour Forever

Doing the rain dance her field-best Beyer occurred over a BEL less-than-fast racing oval; the 10 minor awards during career leaps off the form at you; Sentimental Lass among others also want a piece of the action on the lead; view as a pace presence for part.

Keep Bustin

2-1 odds as an MTO Wednesday; figures to work out an ideal trip stalking a slew of frontrunners; toss her stakes loss and consistent sort just never seems to run a bad race; career-best Beyer was posted at today's distance; rematch with Haldane who ran her down at longer in June which represents her last BEL-dirt attempt.

Haldane

Reunites with the 2-time win rider who also rode to her career-best Beyer on BEL-fast dirt at longer; exits her lowest Beyer since October when fading; 6-1 odds in Wednesday's 4th as an MTO; cuts back in yardage; July, 2012, was her last race attempting this short of a distance.

Miss Da Point

Former pure-speed frontrunner has turned into a stalker type in recent races and that style figures to pay dividends with a lot of suspect-gate speed signed on for this; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 77 taking a BEL-35K-claimer next out; main knock is that she was defeated by some of these 2 and 3 starts ago.

Make the Moment

Late runner gets a super-pace flow to rally into for this while the extra half furlong added from last can only help the cause; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 69 in her next-out BEL-optional-claiming win; finished 3rd three-back finishing behind the winner and runner-up who Beyered 75-63 in next-out SAR-optional-claiming wins.

Race 9

Tricky Tiffany

Okay, she had the two races under the girth but not sure how you can spin this form in the right direction; there is turf success in the family and a couple of 6 figure earners; still can't boost.

Joda's Ten

There are some obvious red flags here; she has yet to raise a gallop, had to take the extended vacation and now shows for sale; probably not the best of signs; dam was 0 for 7; 3 of 4 siblings won; several tried grass to no avail; top kin Titletown Tiger earned nearly $125K in a long career; not seeing it.

Hidden Music

Two excuses in last, the rail and the sealed muddy strip; miss has drilled fast coming to this race and she does have natural speed; last angle to think about: rider is 30% the last year or so when getting a leg up from Rice.

Miss McKeown

Sizzling sevens so far but they sure have not paid off at any slots; 2 for 9 dam was turf only; this is her first to race; she has only beaten 3 horses in her career; enough said.

Locks of Gold

The fact she flashed career speed in last is at least a positive; could see her pushing the issue, just not convinced she'll be around when the smoke clears.

Going Going Gone

Miss appears to have found her friends but she is due to hit out out of the park; backers can point to the fact that the top kin banked nearly $200K and won on grass once; it's almost getting to be the point where it is a now or never situation; long overdue.

J Rose Gal

She tried the short game in last vs. tougher and it didn't work out all that well; miss does have a shot to show more speed with the blinks today and note show horse 2 back graduated next out and the winner repeated in a $35K claimer with a 74 Beyer; hustling bug figures to send her out of there; will at least muddle the pace.

Shewreckstheplace

Once they put up 19 beats, the upside is just about impossible to find; she does drop, and she was 2nd the last time for this price but she didn't scare the winner that day; miss failed to beat half the field home in the last return effort; passing.

Rufus Ruth

Toss the MSW efforts and the form brightens; a half sis did win on grass but was only one for 20; over 4 clear in last, off a career Beyer, one more leap forward and she'll be right there.

Estrange

Back at the claimed level, but it can't be easy moving a horse up from a 27% barn like Brown's; connections hoping she starts to act like top kin Alienation, a grass winner and over $160K earner; can't boost after the last pair.

Ivanovna

Beaten over 13 the last time going short; not thrilled with the defeat vs. softer; new bug takes reins, hard to see that as the cure all.

Love Is Key Kaz

Mare walked out of the gate the day she was claimed but she does have the finishing first experience to draw from here; right there at the top of the lane in last but could not thwart Going Going Gone; looking at a stalk and pounce trip; legit player today.