Belmont: Closer Looks for October 10, 2013

Race 2

Ravalo

Old pro is the class of the field as a multiple stakes winner of $1.3M; he also owns it's best last-race Beyer Figure; makes the move to seven furlongs, and the distance is a bit of a concern as he has done his bet work of late over six panels; however, he has a useful off-the-pace style and is 2-for-2 on the main track at Bel; win candidate.

Talk Therapy

He became a stakes winner at 7, a few races back when he captured a statebred stakes at Finger Lakes; he was sharp on the cutback from a mile and an eighth to one-turn in his most recent out, and as such looking for him to again be prominent; can share.

Cease

He's a class runner as a stakes winner of more than $500K; is racing at a distance that feels less than optimum for him, but aspects of his pedigree are agreeable and barn has been gradually moving him in this direction, as he cut back to a one-turn mile last out at Bel; one to fear in the late stages.

Tiz Yankee

He's making a couple of key moves; for starters he's returning to the main track following a rare start on turf last out at Mth; he's also cutting back to one turn and both of his wins have come at such a configuration; a drawback is that he gives up win experience to all of these.

Rein King

He gives up recency to these as he has not seen action since May, but note barn is one that wins at an above average rate with its comebackers; further, the race this one exits has produced two next-out winners: the third-place finisher returned in his next start to take a $62.5K optional claimer at Bel with a Beyer Figure of 96, and the sixth-place finisher, Groomed for Victory, a $25K optional claimer, also at Bel, with a Beyer of 95; can share.

Congressional Page

Barn would seem to be expressing confidence with this one, as he starts for a $62.5K claiming price one start after being haltered for $35K; the claim was made in August; has tactical speed, a useful post and as one of just two in the field not turning back in distance, looking for him to be somewhat prominent; forms tough entry with Ravalo. By Mary Rampellini

Race 3

Cheer the Chick

Sire Salute the Sarge is 3 for first 44 (over 6%) with firsters, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 4 of 12 for $346K, was G2/G3 SW and G1 SP in SoCal; dam's only foal to race is Jaw Crusher (0 for 4 but SP, $45K); dam was 1 for 2 for $11K; been working along steadily.

Accomplish First

Flashed talent when 3rd vs. straight maidens here just over a year ago; trouble is, then came almost 11 months off and 2 not-so-hot outings this summer; in her defense, obviously something sent her to the sidelined for that long spell and her 2 returns tries both came vs. NY-bred straight maidens, came in slop and on turf; well, today she's in for a tag and Dilger adds blinkers (2 for last 3, 67%, doing so); 4 sibs to race are winners including Sarah Accomplished (2 wins, $97K, SW) and Celebrating Sarah (7 wins, $68K).

Patriot's Jewel

Tough to be too enthused; yet to make a dent in 4 starts; in fact, she's yet to register a positive number on the Beyer scale; freshened since a dull mud run vs. tougher here June 8 and she does drop in for a tag for her return but heck, her first 3 starts came vs. cheaper tags than this; and her works don't exactly get the pulse racing either.

Light Weight

May be getting the hang of it; first 3 starts weren't much but then perked up at SAR Setp. 2 and was then a very nice 2nd here Sept. 15; of course, that came for $20K so she's facing more expensive today but these aren't monsters and actually that increase in value is encouraging;

Bileaps and Bounds

Difficult to build much of a case; has been no factor in the lane in 5 starts; did at least show some speed at SAR July 20 and Aug. 2 but both of those were on turf, and she still hit the brakes pretty hard; the one thing that could help is she takes the most important drop in the game but does she have the requisite talent to take advantage of this placement, hmmmm?

Raven Rise

Was knocking on the door from last November to early August but then came a dull turf route at SAR Aug. 24 and Kimmel has opted to regroup and drop her; those are both probably good moves, and she ran decently off the bench here in June; also back to a sprint and back to dirt, a situation she's handled well before, too; nice :48.80B here Oct. 2 encourages. By Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Defiant

Thrice beaten chalk drops to his lowest level in his return to the course over which he twice was runner up while earning his career best numbers; barn excels with its turn backs but there doesn't look to be much pace in front of him so he'll need to be hustled from here; on his best he's the one they'll have to hold off.

Loveisheartandsoul

He's offered for a fraction of what they paid for him at auction as a yearling and will debut off a series of easy breezes; his sire does get 16% first out winners from his offspring and 9% of his initial surface runners win; dam was a G3 SW router and 217K earner who was 0 for 2 on the green and this is her first foal to make it to the races; barn has had a pretty nice meeting and is profitable with its debut runners.

Boardwalk Baron

Circuit's top pilot sticks as this one drops to a career low level in his return to the local sod; sophomore may fit better with these and the outfit does boasts solid numbers on the turn back; dam was a SW turfer and 247K earner so maybe this guy improves enough to contend here with those first few tries under his belt; consider.

Lion Keen

Didn't take much tote support first out at Saratoga and now he'll drop in for a tag for a top outfit that excels with both its second out runners and those moving to this level; number he earned in his debut run does suggest he'll be able to contend for this price and he can get better with the initial experience behind him but this barn's runners rarely get lost on the board.

Gridiron Great

Took a good step forward on the drop when shades were added for the turn back to this trip; 3 year old has been runner up in each of his 3 local spins and his improved early interest could benefit him in this one; giving him the nod to break through and beat these home.

Captain Keon

Led early through soft splits while going long against MSWs but didn't have much to offer thereafter in his first local sod try; maybe the drop and turn back help this guy move forward, but he hasn't don't much since that sharp debut placing in Florida last winter and even at a career low level has something to prove.

Copper Beeches

He's been away 15 months since offering little in his MSW debut over this footing last year; sophomore will tackle older claimers in his return for a barn that boasts excellent numbers with this type and they have also had some recent success with both shades and Lasix added; kin to multiple G2 SW turfer and 746K earner Middlesex Drive as well as 2 other surface winners deserves another shot on this footing as a top pilot returns on him.

Brother Brendan

He was beaten less than 2 lengths over the course when last in for a tag first out here a few months back; subsquent turf routes weren't much but they did come against better and his dam was a surface winner; maybe he finds this bunch more to his liking at a price that figures to again be right.

Fifth Gear

Outside drawn gelding adds the hood for his first crack under the care of an outfit that's winless on the year; neither of his juvenile sprint tries on Tapeta footing at Presque Isle Downs was much and he's the first foal to race out of a dam who was 0 for 1 on the green; sire does get an excellent 20% winners from his initial surface starters, though.

Alysaro

MTO was runner up at this trip and level off 3 months on the shelf; he handles footing with some moisture in it and getting off the fence for this one should help him; with a profitable second off the break barn in his corner he looks to be the one to beat if the rains come. By Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Cielo Soleggiato

Raced on the lead in last pair; he projects as the frontrunner here again today; career-best Beyer speed figure was posted at 1.5F shorter than this and clearly getting today's distance is a huge hurdle off latest fade down the lane when rallying past many of these; he is the one to catch.

Moravitz

Career-best Beyer 2-back on turf when stalking Cielo Soleggiato but could not hold off Plausibly or Fiddlers Chico and both are back for this; the 3-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a SUF-MSW event; 5 straight trouble lines with a 3F-bullet workout for this suggesting we will see better gate speed than latest; others appeal more,

Shortcoming

Latest came out of nowhere yielding a field-best Beyer when stalking the pace then hanging on well at today's distance on BEL Inner Turf; figures to sit just off the inside speed then hopes to get 1st run on the closers; obviously if can just repeat last would be a logical contender for win honors.

Sunnyinseabrook

64-day absence for a 4%-winning fresh trainer who only wins 4% with turf runners since 2012; career-best Beyer was a 2-back defeat by Shortcoming with 3 lengths to make up on that one; ranked a notch below the top contenders and off the bench will be taking a wait and see approach.

Fastinov

Brought blinkers back to the mix in last flashing better gate speed but lacked stamina; in another race without the hood he also flashed some gate speed so may go after Cielo Soleggiato for the lead today; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 72 in his next-out MNR-MSW victory.

Plausibly

Has simply been a different runner since blinkers were added in 2013; great sign that the rider from both exacta finishes stays right here; beat a bunch of these in last while 3-back was troubled on dirt vs. the runner-up finisher who Beyered 70 in his next-out SAR-25K-maiden-claiming win; figures to sit just off the speed then get 1st run on the closers.

Fiddlers Chico

Was on the wrong end of a 3-horse win photo in last; the rider from his career-best Beyer continues to side with Plausbily here; late runner hopes the speed falls apart late to turn the tables; finished 2nd best to the 4-back winner who repeated in a SAR-20K-claimer with an 81 speed figure.

Secret Soul

Over a 1-year layoff for the trainer who is 1-for the last-13 with 180-day plus absentees; the MSW-to-maiden claiming angle is a 30%-win move from the barn since 2012; has been working steadily for this noting the slight 2nd-timeout Beyer improvement; figures to lay back early then make 1 run; would be a big factor if ready for very best right off the bench.

Ryan's Utopia

Sire is 3-for-55 with North American-1st-turf starters; is out of an 0-for-1 dam who did not race on grass; 2 foals to race on turf went 5-0-0-0 combined (1K); 49-1 debut loss when hitting the gate then eased; the winner and show finishers Beyered 85-80 in next-out BEL-MSW and optional-claiming wins.

A. M. Mayhem

Both in-the-money finishes occurred on dirt; did not fire 2-back in a turf loss to Fiddlers Chico as they chased an 81 Beyer repeat next-out winner; the blinkers added 2 starts ago have not produced the improvement expected; new rider is winless (0-for-10) for the trainer at BEL.

Got the Moves

Sire is 3-for-23 with 1st-turf starters but 1-for-30 with 1st-time runners; is the 1st foal out of a 9-for-67 dam (170K) who won 1-of-8 on turf (18K); 4-year-old unveils late in career but has worked well for a 24% win trainer when debuting one in a maiden claimer. By Art Gropper

Race 6

Swell

The rail can be a tricky place to start for a first-time starting juvenile; sire roughly 10% with debuting juveniles; 3 of 4 sibs to race are winners including $98K 2-year-old winner Brockly Rob; barn 0/6 with first time starting babies since 2009; not likely.

Lulu Rocks

Grade 1 winning sire didn't lose in 6 starts and is 3/20 with debuting 2-year-olds; dam didn't race; both sibs are winners including $348K stakes winner Mystic City; Levine can have them ready to roll first time and Ortiz has put up decent numbers riding for the barn; consider for the exotics.

Freddie G

Contessa not noted for having his babies fully cranked but this guy has bene firing bullets and could come out running with Castellano riding; sire 3/21 with first time starters; dam was a Grade 1 winning sprinter and both of her foals to race are winners; the pick.

Giant Jo

First from Schettino picked it up in his latest work and he is by a sire that is 3/18 with first timers; 5 winning sibs to report including 2-year-old winner My Jopia who won a NY-bred stakes at three; his stablemate looks more attractive, though.

Polecat

He raced greenly in his debut and he might have won the race if he didn't lug in at the 3/16th pole; he finished full of run once he straightened out, though, and he is certainly eligible to take a big step forward with the blinkers going on in his second start; half to 5-time sprint winner Feeling Fancy is an obvious threat to win this.

Freddie Freud

Freud roughly 13% with 2-year-old first timers; 3 of 4 sibs are winners the best being Conecuh who won 3 sprints and earned $56K; the last 2-year-old first time starter coming out of this barn, Captain Toews, paid a nice price when he won a $50K maiden claimer here Sept. 8; playable.

Slew's Brew

At least he showed more speed in his latest but once again he wasn't around at the finish; horse that finished second in his debut won the Grade 1 Breeders' at Keeneland last Sat.; this guy seems to have gone in a different direction, however, so we're going to pass. By Randy Goulding

Race 7

Social Affair

Nothing wrong with that debut 2nd - except that he ran into a buzzsaw in Shadow Banking; but hey, that was just his debut and it gave her a feel for this turf game; Shug a nice 13% 2nd time out and Saez stays with 2 works since; 2 of 4 sibs to race are winners including Dancing Forever (5 for 24, all 5 wins on turf, $915K, won G1 Manhattan, also G2 SW and 2nd in G1 GP Turf and 3rd in G1 BC Turf).

School Yard

Sire Congrats gets over 7% first time turf winners, about 9% overall turf winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 7 of 26 for $998K, was G2 SW, multiple G1 SP, never tried turf; dam's only foal is Hunting Ground (off board in 2 starts); dam was off board in 3 starts for $3K, no starts on turf; debut was downright ugly but hey, it was just his debut, he cost a pretty penny ($200K) and there's no panicky drop by a real sharp trainer (Mott).

Theros

Stalked the pace in his turf debut here Sept. 8 and loomed a threat on the far turn; however, from there things fell apart; still, considering it was his debut that wasn't too bad and he's certainly bred to be nice being by a multiple G2 SW and out of dam whose only turf start was a big win in the G1 American Oaks (also won the G1 Spinster, G2 Black-Eyed Susan); all 3 sibs are winners, 2 of them turf winners.

Gara Gattino

Sire Kitten's Joy gets over 17% 2yo debut winners, over 16% first time turf winners and over 15% overall turf winners; sire won 9 of 14 for $2 million, won G1 Joe Hirsch as a 3yo over elders, won G1 Secretariat, multiple G3 SW, 2nd in G1 BC Turf, was champion turf horse; dam's lone foal is full-bro Forest Elfe (1 for 7, $12K, off board 3 turf tries); dam won 3 of 11 for 66K, off board only 2 turf tries; some sharp works including 2 recent bullets to encourage.

Gibson's Bullet

Sire Montbrook gets over 10% 2yo debut winners, over 3% first time turf winners and over 8% overall turf winners; sire was 5 for 8 for $373K, had 2 G3 SWs; dam has 4 winners from 7 foals to race including Ghosttrapper (12 wins, 1 on turf, $243K); dam won 1 of 6 for $8K, no starts on turf; been working along in solid, steady fashion, and Tagg/Maragh are 3 for their last 9 (33%) together.

Danaus

Good speed shown in first grass try here Sept. 11, though he hit the brakes pretty hard to be a well-beaten 4th; still, that was just his 2nd start, it was his first on turf and first routing and it's nice to see no panicky drop; worked a couple times since, too; may well improve, though whether it's enough to make him a player is another matter (after all, today's foe Social Affair ran 2nd, beating him by over 10 lengths, in that Sept. 11 race).

Double Whammy

Sire Arch gets over 8% 2yo debut winners, over 10% first time turf winners and over 14% overall turf winners; sire won 5 of 7 for $480K, won G1 Super Derby, no turf starts; unraced dam's 3 foals are winners including Easy Gallop (7 wins, off board only turf try, SP, $160K); some strong works including a :59.60 bullet here Oct. 2. By Michael Hammersly

Race 9

Mr Algebra

His recent form is right in line with what it might take to get the job done in this spot, and after running well off of a wide trip in a paceless race in his latest outing, he figures to appreciate the drop in class for this; it doesn't hurt to see Castellano land here.

Life's a Roar

He put together a decent effort to break his maiden in his final start of 2012, but outside of that performance, his form hasn't been very encouraging; he's going to have to step it up in order to contend.

Hardrocker

He looks like a solid fit at this 20k claiming level, and he might find himself sitting a comfortable trip after breaking from a favorable inside post position; however, it is tough to place confidence in him for the top spot when seeing that he has just a single win after 24 career starts with a combined 11 second and third place finishes.

Kiss of Thunder

Have to be at least mildly concerned when seeing what he's done in his two most recent races since being claimed away from Ramsey and Maker, and it might also be worth noting the presence of Castellano elsewhere in here.

Bedouin Now

Harlington has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this colt hasn't made much of an impression in two of his three turf starts; note that three of his better races were run as a member of the Ness barn.

Flowing Mane

This looks like a sensible drop in class for this gelding and he's only two races removed from a performance that can get him into the mix against these; his ability to adapt to any early pace scenario helps give him added appeal.

Cashleigh

This is an outfit that does some of their better work with turf starters and perhaps they'll have this gelding ready to give a good account of himself while making his second start back from a layoff.

Sir Leslie

He looks like the lesser option to consider for Hilly Fields and Serpe as this New York-bred will need to be ready for the performance of his career in order to find himself involved in the running through the final furlong.

Shertzer

He goes out for a barn that has been at their best with starters at Belmont Park over the years, and maybe a minor award is within his grasp, but it's tough to ignore that he's 0-for-13 going back through 2012.

Seeking Harmony

Have to respect the improvement he's shown since being placed back over turf at Delaware Park three races ago and feel that this is a realistic spot for him to ship to New York and take on winners for the first time; runner up from latest won next out at Prx on 9/16 going 1m vs. MSW rivals with a 67 Beyer; Ortiz has won with 7 of 26 (27%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Kitchi Warrior

Feel that this can prove to be a tough spot for this gelding to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf and it looks like he benefited from an ideal early pace scenario in his latest outing at Suffolk; 3rd finisher from latest won next out at Suf on 9/21 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. N1X rivals with a 70 Beyer. By Brian Pochman