Belmont: Closer Looks for May 9, 2014

Race 1

Magsamelia

Class relief and switch to the rail can make her one of the prime contenders today; she should be on or near a much softer pace as well; her sire won multiple G1 stakes and 2.28 million; the dam won 1 of 5 and 28K; winning siblings include 48K earner Scatter Joy.

Rosemarie

Ran a sharp second the last time she was in the claiming ranks; exits the same swift race as the rail runner and the two should improve substantially against this caliber; this mare should offer a generous price once again despite the descent.

Bird Rockette

Did not find a race at Keeneland despite some strong workouts at that oval; she has lost to blowout winners in 3 of her 4 career starts and is another runner in this line-up making the powerful drop from the special weight class; can awaken.

Live Love Laugh

Newcomer was sired by G3 type Got the Last Laugh who banked 249K and whose offspring have won 4 of 18 debuts; the dam won 1 of 7 attempts and 9K; among the winning siblings is 69K earner Tale of the Forest.

Cajun Wedding

Takes a giant leap up the hierarchy today yet did begin her career against special weight stock; has important experience at this tricky distance and although she will be encountering much swifter splits today, she may be able to land a share on best performance.

Will Do

Just missed the place when pursuing a lengthy winner last month; also ran into a powerful group 2 back at Philadelphia; looks like a comfortable fit against this lot if taking to the Belmont surface; consider.

Quality Legend

Beginner hails from multiple G3 victor Elusive Quality whose progeny have won 95 out of 626 initial starts; the dam won 8 of 31 en route to earning 288K; winning siblings include 149K earner Smokin' Legend. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Real Estate Rich

There's some respectable dirt form signed on in here but his form has taken a noticeable turn for the better since being claimed by these connections three starts back and Rice has won with 17 of 65 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Dighton

He hasn't run a bad race since moving into this barn, a span of six starts, and he sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here; versatile gelding owns the ability to adapt to any early pace scenario and it doesn't hurt to see that he's run well over the main track here in the past.

Bluegrass Springs

If he runs the way that he did in his previous two starts over this course at today's distance, he can have a say in the outcome, but he might need to see some racing luck fall his way after breaking from a tricky rail post; regardless, he merits contender status.

Glowing Ember

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from six starts, including four turf starts; runner up from latest won next out at Aqu on 4/3 going 1m vs. 30k OPC's with a 76 Beyer; Saez has won with 3 of 8 (38%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Partly Mocha

Of the horses in the main body of this race, he's the only one who can boast of having four wins next to his name, and his best effort is clearly fast enough to make him a player in this spot; he has run well when fresh in the past and like to see John V. get the call.

Gombey Dancer

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and multiple stakes placed dam won 3 of 12 starts for 128k, and she didn't make a turf start; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Aqu on 3/28 going 7f vs. 50k claimers with an 88 Beyer.

Carolinian

He's meeting older rivals for the first time in his 3-year-old racing debut and his connections might feel that he's ready to return to action running to call upon Castellano for this; his best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over dirt, but he's run well in just about all of his sprint attempts, and looks like a top contender in his first start in a true turf dash.

Kodiak Kody

Kodiak Kowboy is off to a poor start as a turf sire, but this gelding is out of a multiple graded stakes placed dam who won 7 of 38 starts for 457k, including 3 of 12 turf starts for 199k, and he does figure to appreciate being turned back to a sprint distance.

Monster Mash

He has some respectable turf form on his card to consider, and when looking at the improvement he's shown in his two starts since moving into this barn, it's probably a good idea to recognize him as a top contender while getting back over turf for this; winner from latest won next out at Aqu on 4/12 going 7f vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 94 Beyer.

Sandy'z Slew

He hasn't run a bad race from four starts over turf, and he might be looking forward to turning back to a sprint distance for this; the last time he hit the finish first C.V. was aboard and he gets the call for this; must respect.

Escapist

He dominated seven rivals sprinting over turf at Gulfstream Park back in February, and even though he's getting over an entirely different turf course today, he has to be respected as a major player with that performance behind him; he's out of a multiple stakes placed dam who won 3 of 18 turf starts for 137k, and he's a 1/2 to Salvar (3-14, 53k, including 2 of 3 turf starts for 22k). - Brian Pochman

Race 3

Don Tito

MTO will start from the fence if yesterday's forecasted rains force this one off the green; 7 year old has been back on his game of late and he'll be seeking his third straight score here; he beat cheaper from a tracking spot at the local trip last fall and he's handy enough to secure a similar journey from this draw; he's yet to tackle wet footing, but looks to be a contender from close range today.

Super Chunky

Ships back in to try a course over which he ran well in his lone try; 8 year old was ok sprinting in the fall but don't know that he's good enough to step with some of these on the lawn; have to pass on him in this one.

Slim Shadey (GB)

First part of the barn's entry is a G2 SW turf router who set the pace before fading at that level in his last start for his old barn out West; he'll tackle one turn while returning from 3 months on the shelf and that isn't his best game; new outfit does terrific work with this type and the class edge is significant, but have to think he'll be better on the stretchout with this effort behind him.

The Brothers War

Ran ok against fellow sophomores in the Saratoga stake while making his stateside debut last summer but his first start of the season in Florida wasn't much; though he ran ok sprinting in France last year, he wasn't facing tough company and his barn has had a rough start to this racing season; just watching today.

Royal Currier

MTO understandably tired late at the trip across town while making his first start back from 4 months on the bench; gelding has done his better running on the front end and with a good push he could control this heat from the outset; may prove to be the one to catch.

Big Screen

MTO makes his first start back from better than half a year on the shelf for a barn that's been profitable with its returnees; he took advantage of a local 7 panel stake being rained off last year to post a big Beyer before having his number taken down and he did score fresh over the turf course 2 back; certainly capable on his best.

Bio Pro

He's another who has done his recent running in California but he's been training on the East coast for a while now and he'll get a top pilot for his first crack for this outfit; he broke his maiden on dirt the last time he tried one turn but his turf tries out West suggest he'll be able to secure a spot within striking range of the leaders early and he should have some more to offer late at this trip; consider.

Saturday's Charm

MTO drops out of the G1 Carter in which the winner controlled things through soft early splits, but his prior sprint try over the inner track wasn't bad; though it's been a while since he's seen the winner's circle he should find this field more to his liking and he does like the trip; contender.

Salutos Amigos

Other half of the coupling is entered MTO while tackling his toughest task of the year in this spot; he's looked pretty good across town since taken over by this barn and his prior outfit did have high hopes for him on this circuit last year; in his current form he looms a big threat.

Nine O Wonderful

Late runner was given time off following his first start of the season in which he wasn't beaten all that much from a wide spot in the Gulfstream turf course; 6 year old just missed at the local trip in the fall, earning a number that would make him a big player if repeated here and he is working quite well of late for this; one to fear late, but he may well be up against it from a tactical standpoint.

Upgrade

Missed just a half length when making his first start for a barn that has gotten off to a great start here; 7 year old will tackle a better bunch today, but he gets a top pilot for his return to a course over which he's won and his better efforts would put him right in the thick of this one. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

It's Your Dime

Deceptively fine try only 6 days ago when setting all the pace until the final yards (she had to deal with a tiring course when doing so); the mare will have to overcome a swifter early pace on this turnback and may be pestered from the opening bell; tough call.

Noon Time Shower

Major disappointment while odds-on at Finger Lakes recently; her sire won a G3 and 354K while the dam won 6 of 34 and 204K (progeny of Noonmark have scored in 1 of 8 grass debuts); among the winning siblings is 419K earner Perfect Shower.

Laurenmychanelgirl

Broke slowest of all and did not recover in her maiden voyage; her sire won multiple G1s and 2.76 million; descendants of Afleet Alex are 11 for 187 in their first grass attempt); the dam won 1 of 4 and 11K; sib to 86K earner Mr. Again.

Sweethots

Although off the board in her last assignment, she was chasing a strong pace that day before tiring; her sole grass attempt involved breaking slowest and widest thereby eliminating any realistic chance; can rebound in this situation.

Saucon Valley

New face was sired by G1 sprinter City Zip who captured 818K and whose offspring have won 46 out of 333 initial turf attempts; the mom won 1 of 10 and 45K; this is her sole foal to make it to the races.

Lakeview Lady

Pressed the issue until the last furlong in that September getaway race; ran a solid third at the beginning of her career at the course and distance; may be able to shake off the rust today and be a forward factor.

Samuels Blond Lady

First time sprinting but she has flashed some fair prompting speed when negotiating routes; despite being on the shelf for nearly a year, her prior experience over the course should enhance her chances today; mixed signals.

Keep Right

Her sire won multiple G1s and 5.15 million; descendants of Street Cry have won approximately 11 percent of their initial turf races; the dam involved won 2 of 7 and 93K; sib to 39K bankroller Keep Right.

Countess Twice

Rested since losing by inches in her inner dirt finale; her sire won 9 of 34 and 4.91 million; progeny of Utopia have scored in 3 of 66 turf debuts; the dam won 10 of 24 appearances and 378K; sib to 14K earner Magical Blend.

Colloquial

A steady set of half-mile breezes to consider; her sire won the Derby and 3.61 million; descendants of Big Brown are 9 for 66 as far as winning their first grass race; the dam won 8 of 35 and 244K; this is her only foal to start.

Annie Walker

She turned in a commendable effort in her Big A debut recently when encountering much trouble; the blinker addition seemed to help and if she can maintain her composure, she should be more of a threat here; worth serious follow-up.

Camie's Dancer

The connections tried to get on the turf early in her career but that race was washed away; her sire won a G3 and 321K while the dam was unraced; offspring of Uncle Camie are 1 for 5 in grass debuts; there are no winning sibs to report. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Ear D' Rhythm

Had to take the biggest drop in the game to graduate; and she had to take 2013 off for a pretty serious reason; would not be shocked if she is on the muscle since she is fresh but would lean toward watching one.

Miss Melinda

Could have sulked after the slow start but she put her head down and tried hard; miss was 3 clear in the process; back to the original pilot; legit player if she gets a shot to suit up.

Balashkova (FR)

Carefully placed and like the spacing of the return drills;who was she facing across the pond?; the winner of last returned to run 6th and is one for 4 career; must respect everything from this barn.

Swakopmund

Mare has a shot to show more speed on the stretch out; if you figure she needed the last, you can build a case for a move forward; a slice may be the ceiling.

Wholelottashakin

This is her venue; 8th finisher in last took a $58.5K NC allowance at GP and the winner repeated in a $75K stakes there; far from disgraced last time and she was inching toward the leader late; she has a shot to have an even better career as kin to Dewars Rocks, who won a number of stakes, banked over $300K, lost only turf out; respect.

Fingers Crossed

Grinder will need things to break right; she did win here and the last race came back okay as the show horse took a $75K optional next out at GP and the 4th finisher took an N1X at KEE; value should be there.

La Madrina

Barn is on the patient side so far she freaked in the debut speaks volumes; how bright is her future?; Shug is wearing shades as this miss is kin to multiple Grade 1 winner and near $1.7 million earner Verrazano; could be any kind.

Tokyo Time

Green in the debut but the rest of the races have been solid; the blood is there for her to thrive as kin to multiple G2 winner Hungry Island, who earned over $750K and was turf only; she has much more speed than she just flashed; another threat.

Walk With An Angel (GB)

Limited data on Myboycharlie; Grade 1 winning sire won debut at 2, took first 3 starts, banked over $425K; dam lost only start; one of 2 siblings won; that runner, Easy Road, took debut in Norway for only win beating 6 at a mile on a soft turf course; could need a race.

Fizzy Pink (GB)

Bet like a good thing and she sure didn't disappoint; she overcame the slow start and note the show horse was 5 clear; barn continues to fire at will. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Piquant

He took on a bit more than he could chew when he tried Grade 3 company at Keeneland and he'll appreciate the easier group he's meeting here; prior to his latest he was a pretty sharp horse at Parx; the horse he beat March 1 is a former turf stakes winner here and he finished third in a $75K stakes at Parx in his next start; looks like the one they'll have to catch and his trainer won the Golf Fever here last Sat. with Favorite Tale who took them the whole way; contender.

Cease

First from Jacobson has some tactical speed and we'll assume he will be aggressively ridden by Castellano or Piquant could be gone; he wasn't much of a threat in the washed off Elusive Quality but he fits nicely here and could be ready for a big effort in his second start back following a short layoff; looks like a major player, especially if it comes up wet.

Don Dulce

He hasn't fired in his two starts since being claimed but he was facing touger in the Grade 3 Excelsior and in his latest Aussi Austin received a 104 Beyer for his front-running romp; he fits better with this group and if he can regain the sharp form he had across town he could be the winner of what appears to be a wide-open event; that is a big if, though.

Start Jumping

Second from Jacobson has improved dramatically, winning two of his last three while posting Beyer Speed Figures of 98 and 99 in his wins; he also ran well over this surface last fall and note the strong recent numbers Jacobson has with horses coming back between 31-60 days; this is a tougher assignment but he appears to be right on top of his game; the pick.

Irsaal

Another one coming into this with sharp form but he's been off since Feb. 22 and he'll also be tacking tougher; horse that finished third in his latest won his next two at Laurel with 88 and 85 Beyer Speed Figures; this guy won two of three here last year and finished third in a stakes race in his only other start over this surface; the layoff following a win is a concern and it is interesting to see him offered for a price for the first time. - Randy Goulding

Race 9

Loomin' Lori Lou

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 11 starts for 41k, including 0-for-1 over turf; her dirt form has been respectable and now she moves to turf for a top turf outfit; Castellano has won with 12 of 38 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Beautiful Me

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 9 of 49 starts for 175k, and she didn't make a turf start; obviously she's going to need to show up with a much improved performance in her turf debut in order to contend.

Bonfire Heart

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; she's another who will have to show a lot more in her first turf test in order to prove to be a player.

Sanfiera

Sire wins with approximately 3% of his first-time starters and with approximately 9% of his turf starters, and dam won 2 of 7 starts for 26k, including 0-for-2 over turf; this is a sharp first-out operation and Sanchez has won with 7 of 18 (39%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Rice and Beans

Tough to give this mare a favorable push in this spot when seeing that she's 0-for-10 without a top-three finish, and she's an early speed type in a race that figures to have a fast and contested early pace, she looks like more of an outsider.

Aspree

She's meeting up with older rivals for the first time, but this stakes placed miss saw her form improve during the latter half of her 2-year-old season, and she does deserve another chance to see what she can do racing over turf.

Gu Gu Beans

She wasn't able to get much going in her first two starts as a 2-year-old and that was after going to post at long odds; third-place finisher from latest won next out at GP on 12/13 going 1m over turf vs. 75-65k MCL's with a 69 Beyer.

Honeychild

She ran well in her first start over turf at second asking and it's interesting to see her making her 3-year-old racing debut for a new barn that does well with young/lightly raced turf horses, especially with Rosario getting the call; must consider.

Bella Kateri

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 16 starts for 102k, including 2 of 11 turf starts for 85k; this filly is a 1/2 to Rocky F (2-7, 54k over turf) and El Arquero (1-2, 37k over turf); she has appeal in her first turf start after a promising career debut.

Luna Brava

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 11 of 39 starts for 115k, and she didn't make a turf start; she'll have to show more in order to get the job done against these in her turf debut, but her form has improved since moving into this barn and adding blinkers.

Lutheran Miss

Sire is 0-for-24 with his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from two starts, and one of her starts was over turf; her career debut against 10 rivals can be viewed in a positive light and she shows up for a solid win-early barn.

Funky Munky Fever

Like the improvement she showed with a move to turf at second asking, but that was routing, and it will be interesting to see how she responds in her first start in a turf dash; she's a contender, but the turn back in distance is a question.

Isabelle

She's by a fine win-early sire and she's out of a stakes placed mare who won 4 of 20 starts for 150k, and based on the improvement she showed in her second career start, she'll have to be considered a top candidate to walk away with the top prize if this race gets moved to the main track. - Brian Pochman