Belmont: Closer Looks for May 7, 2014

Race 1

Sampson County

Dropped into a maiden claimer for the first time in his latest at Gulfstream in Feb. and after he broke poorly he was hard ridden but didn't really respond; nice works since he ran and his best race came over this surface going this distance; Velazquez is attracted and it is hard to ignore the impressive jockey-trainer numbers showing; none of his four sibs are winners but this guy looks like a major player in this spot.

Shelby Dean

Claimed out of his latest by Gonzalez who hasn't technically won with the five horses he's brought back the first time, but one of them was dq'd from first; toss his race at Laurel and he's been in the mix in all of his races this year; he also has tactical speed in a race they probably won't be going that fast; not out of the question.

Coffee and Donuts

Winner of his latest won by over 10 and the horse that finished second came back to win a $35K maiden claimer for state-breds with a 72 Beyer Speed Figure; it was an improved effort over his previous race and he could be coming up to a peak performance in the third start of his current form cycle; best of 5 sibs to race is $234K sprint stakes winner Coax Liberty; no route winning sibs, though, so the distance could be an issue.

Cuckoo House

This will be his fourth start in less than a month and he's coming back in just six days after not making much of an impact sprinting at this level; he faded the only time he tried a middle distance so he is a bit suspect going this far; at least he gets off the rail but he is going to have to pick things up to contend and we just don't see that happening; passing.

Uragano

5-year-old was part of the tri in his last two but he's stepping up in price and his Beyer Speed Figures were pretty light in both races; he has improved lately but except for his latest he's lost by double digits in all of his races and he'll need to take a big step forward to contend for the top spot here; maybe for the bottom half of the exotics.

Conflictedinterest

He didn't show a lot in a straight maiden race at Laurel but it was just his debut and it was a key race; the horse he beat won a MSW at Keeneland in his next start and the horse that finished fourth won his next two at Pimlico with 75 and 81 Beyer Speed Figures; this is obviously an easier spot; dam was a sprint stakes winner at Woodbine; lone sib placed once in two starts; mixed signals.

Tapulous

He took a long time to make it back to the races after just missing in a $50K maiden claimer here last year; nonetheless, he had a race over the turf at Gulfstream April 12 and may have tipped his hand when he worked a solid five furlongs here April; 28; if he breaks alertly he also looks like the one they will have to catch; the pick-Randy Goulding

Race 3

Granville's Way

Sent off at long odds in his debut and he didn't show much after getting off to a poor start, it was just his first start so there should be room for improvement; dam didn't hit the board in six starts and this is her first foal; moving from the outside post to the rail doesn't help his chances; passing.

Tony D

He's been part of the exotics every time he's been in for a tag and he's coming off a decent effort in his latest in a $25K maiden claimer April 24; horse that won his latest was dropping from a maiden special weight race; horse that won his previous race won a $25K n/w/2 with with a 69 Beyer Speed Figure here May 1; not our favorite to win the race but would certainly use him in the exotics.

In Speight Ofitall

Seemed a bit intimidated after breaking alertly from the rail and dropping back to last in his latest; he made a nice move in the stretch but he had to go wide and hung a bit; he ran a few decent races against straight maidens last year and he ran well in both of his races in $40K maiden claiming races this year; it's also possible he's ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current from cycle; consider for the exotics.

Pillar of Strength

Considering he had a legitimate excuse two back he's improved in each of his races following a decent debut; lightly-raced 3-year-old is out of a stakes winning mare and all of his sibs are winners the best being $146K stakes winner Landofopportunity; moving into open company but he might be the one the have to catch if he breaks alertly; contender.

Nicholson

Another one heading in the right direction and he is dropping to a new low after finishing a distant third in his first try with maiden claimers; would have liked to have seen him come back a little sooner but he may have signaled his readiness with a bullet three-furlong move last Saturday; the past five years Gyarmati has a 9 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 31-60 days; lone sib to race won 3 times and earned $25K; some things to like but prefer others.

Master Yank

He looks like the one to beat after narrowly missing in his second start which came following an 11-month absence; he easily owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and considering the strong jockey-trainer stats showing it is very encouraging to see Velazquez accept the call; the only thing missing is a work since he ran but he's in good hands so we'll assume he is going to take the expected move forward in his second start back; the pick.

Golden Doc

The Doc forced a slow pace and before tiring to finish third behind Tony D in a much-improved effort in his latest race which was his first start for a new trainer; the pace should be moderate again so he figures to be in the mix early; another one that figures to have a hard time beating Master Yank but he is eligible to improve in his second start for his new barn and should be considered for the exotics.-Randy Goulding

Race 4

Awesome Lute

Sire Midnight Lute gets over 8% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 6 of 13 for $2.6 million, won G1 BC Sprint (twice), G1 Forego, also G2 SP routing, was champion sprinter; dam had 3 winners from 4 foals including Awesome Weekend (2 wins, $70K) and Awesome Bull (2 wins, $71K); dam won 3 of 20 for $69K; plenty of works so there appears to be a foundation here, though Schosberg's runners tend to do better AFTER a race or 2.

Officer Mahaffy

Speed shown on occasion; trouble is, he's shown his brakes pretty much each time; what's worse is now, after fading badly for $16K here April 4, he's moved well up in price; 2 of 3 sibs to race are winners; but the stamina aspect better improve a bunch if he's to have a say.

Speed Read

Took the most important drop in the game last time (straight maiden to maiden claiming) but it did not produce the desired turnaround as he was nowhere (9th, last, beaten 19 lengths) that was Jan. 27 - he hasn't been seen since; at least returns with no further drop and he's been working steadily for a trainer who can fire fresh; has shown speed on more than 1 occasion; still, severity of those last 2 fade jobs gives cause for pause; kin to Cribnote (2-time G1 SP).

Unforced

Looks headed the right way; debut was ugly but you can always forgive a debut, and it came vs. straight maidens; showed speed before weakening for $25K on the inner March 24, showed speed and held better for 3rd for $25K on this track April 18; now moved up in value, which encourages.

Spango

Dueled and was a fine 2nd in his $16K debut on the inner March 9; then moved up to the $35 level here April 11, dueled again and stayed on well for 3rd (just a neck behind today's foe You You in 2nd); speed to be in it from the bell and Rosario sees fit to ride, and he and Jacobson have been pretty darn good together the past 17 months or so (35%); all 6 sibs are winners including Spanish Luck (7 wins, $179K).

Little T. Louie

A bit of speed shown in first 2 starts but he hit the brakes pretty hard in each; those were in the fall and he hasn't been seen since, so this marks his first run of the year; at least nice to see no drop and there are a couple decent recent drills as Quartarolo adds blinkers; 5 of 8 sibs are winners including Oedipus O'Neal (8 wins, $367K, SP).

Bad to the Roan

Somebody saw something they liked as he was favored (2-1) in his March 16 debut on the inner; alas, he got bumped at the start and never got involved; it also came vs. straight maidens; then dueled vs. straight maidens here April 18 and finished a decent 4th; now comes a most significant layoff and he's got the speed to be prominent from the bell.

You You

First 2 starts, in April 2013, were a mixed bag but the bigger concern is after start No. 2 he wasn't seen for nearly a year; good news, though, is he came back here April 11, at about this level ($35K) and was a nice 2nd; so, it appears he's come back doing well; there's no layoff since and in fact he gets a slight bump in value, which is a good sign; 2 sibs are winners including Oodles of Fun (6 wins, $52K).-Michael Hammersly

Race 6

Three Cents

They not only saw fit to plunk down $25K to claim him on the inner Jan. 10 but they brought him back in his next 3 starts in spots where they COULDN'T lose him via another claim, so they wanted to keep him; first 2 starts weren't much but on went Lasix and blinkers March 29 and he moved to this trip and flourished, winning nicely; they may have found the key to him and there's a big work since; all that being said, he's up in class again so he'll need another move forward to beat these.

Maximus Decimus

Showed promise in the fall with a nice maiden win here and 2 decent starts on the inner; alas, then came 2 months off and his 2 return outings haven't been very pretty; at least nice to see no panicky drop by Nevin so she's not giving up, and it's also nice to see Castellano take the call; it may be noteworthy, too, that they wheel him back so quickly, particularly as Nevin has had success with this move (2 for last 8, 25%, coming back in 7 days or less).

Divine Energy

Showed promise last summer/fall but you had to be a tad worried when he was then gone for nearly 6 months; when he returned he was hammered at the windows (1-1 favorite) but he validated that judgement with a smart win over this track; cost $390K at auction so they're hoping for more than a maiden winner here; it's first time vs. winners, though, so the water's a lot deeper but he gets to face peers only that last could be a sign he's back and ready to show what the fuss was all about;

Pin and Win

OK, so the G2 Jerome was simply biting off too much too soon; well, ever since then he's been solid with 4 straight decent outings vs. starter allowance foes, including elders in his last 2; back with 3yos only today but it's an N1X so it may still be a tougher spot, particularly as it includes Three Cents who beat him easily (7 1/4 lengths) here March 29.

Bay of Plenty

May have turned the corner; flashed talent in first couple (that 4th at GP Feb. 8 looks even better since the horse he chased, Ring Weekend, won the G3 Tampa Bay Derby); then came a smashing maiden win on the inner track here March 22; freshened since but the works are smart for a trainer who does well off a freshening; no surprise he has talent as he's kin to Fortify (2 wins, $323K, G1 and G2 SP).

Roman Approval

Invades from Puerto Rico where many times he chased their champion Tonito M and more than held his own; hey, you don't finish 1-2 in 9 of 10 by accident so this guy has ability; that being said, the works don't exactly get the pulse racing, we're not in Puerto Rico any longer and he hasn't run in nearly 3 months so the hurdles are not insignificant.

Los Borrachos

Mott isn't in the Hall of Fame because he puts his horses in the wrong spots so it's most interesting that off this guy's nice maiden win on the inner March 8 he was pitched right into the deep end of the pool, the G1 Wood; OK, so that didn't go so well but it's nice to see no layoff since and he drops back to a much more realistic level; certainly showed talent prior to the Wood and a return to that type of form could make him scary; but you always worry how a horse will respond after getting his head jerked off as he had happen to him in the Wood; at least there are 2 nice works since to encourage that there will be no ill effects.-Michael Hammersly

Race 7

Dee Dee's Comet

Took last summer off following a poor effor against open company and she hasn't had a bad start since she returned in Nov.; she got off to a poor start, had to steady going down the backstretch and not surprisingly hung late after making a strong move while going wide around the turn in Rub a Dubb Dubb's win March 21; not sure what kind of trip she'll get from this post; consider for the exotics.

Jitney

The presence of Castellano is encouraing but it's been quite a while since she won a race and this will be her first start since Jan 18 where she didn't make much of an impact; the barn hasn't won with the last 12 they have brought back from a layoff of 61-180 days; looking in other directions.

She's Stones Sis

She ran an improved race after getting drubbed by Run a Dubb Dubb and she should appreciate to move to Belmont where she has has been right there in all three of her starts; she does want to be involved early and she could end up being the inside horse in a possible three-horse duel; nonetheless, she could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle and should be considered for the exotics.

Bird House

She hasn't been worse than third in her last seven starts and she just about won her latest behind Run a Dubb Dubb March 21; she figures to get a nice trip behind what should be a contested pace and the only concern is that she was a vet scratch when she was entered back April 11; it just may have been too soon for her and she has worked decently since; the addition of Rosario adds to her appeal and Gullo has decent numbers with horses coming back in this time period; contender.

Your Time Is Up

She flopped as the chalk and had her three-race winning streak snapped in Run a Dubb Dubb's win March 21, but she's been freshened for this and the past five years Violette has a 19 percent strike rate when he brings them back in this time period; she likes to be involved early but she can stalk and she looks like a serious player in a wide-open event.

Discreet Force

Second from Gullo is the wild card in the race; she hasn't been seen since she finished last as the heavy chalk last Sept. and she will be making her first start for Gullo who the past five years is 2/20 with horses coming back from a break of 180 days or more; she exits a key race and the horse that won her race at Saratoga Aug 8 won two of her next four including a $75K restricted stakes at Delaware with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure; works are okay and while we're just going to watch and see how she comes back we won't be shocked if she comes back running.

Run a Dubb Dubb

Makes her first start for Rice who the past five years has a 17 percent strike rate running back newly claimed horses; horse that won her latest was the chalk and she had things all to herself on a track that clearly favored speed; this gal beat most of these in her previous race and it is easy to see her rebounding in her first start for Rice; the pick.

Sacred Success

It has been almost a year since she finished second and was claimed by Gyramati out of $14K optional claimer for NY-breds; the long layoff is an obvious concern and the last two horses the barn has brought back from similar layoffs ran okay, finishing third and fourth; this gal peaked with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure here two years ago but lost her next four as the heavy chalk and hasn't won since; she could be the one they have to catch but we're just going to watch and see how she comes back.-Randy Goulding

Race 8

Auld Alliance (IRE)

Scary new face; invades from England where she did some good work - that's a real nice Juddmonte horse she ran 2nd to at Newmarket last May (Riposte); hasn't run in nearly 10 months and it's her first time in the U.S. so there are hurdles to be sure but she's worked well, her trainer can fire off the bench and she's bred to have talent as she's kin to Golan (G1 SW, multiple G1 SP in Europe) and Tartan Bearer (G2/G3 SW, multiple G1 SP in England).

Glorious Chant

Looked on her way when she gamely beat maidens on the KEE sod just over a year ago but things haven't gone well since; not only have the results not been there (6th, 6th, 7th, 7th) but there are a couple gaps in her schedule; there's no gap this time but her 2 April outings at KEE, a course you know she likes, weren't very pretty; at least there's no panicky drop and Rosario takes the call; kin to Campanologist (multiple G1 SW in Germany, G1 SW in Italy, G1 sP in England, G3 SW in Dubai).

Satisfaction

Return run at KEE wasn't too hot but not only was she dealing with a layoff but she ended up on the lead; sure, the splits were slow but she may be better pressing the pace as opposed to making it; Shug adds blinkers and there are 2 very snappy works since to encourage; run just 3 times so there's still plenty of upside here; also reunited with Castellano who was up for her first 2 smart outings at GP; kin to Dancing Forever (G1 SW, 2-time G1 SP on turf).

Precarious

Hasn't been seen in a whlie (Sept. 14) but when last seen she was a respectable 6th (beaten just 3 lengths) in the G1 Garden City here; that was a super heat, too (produced 4 next-out winners); previous 2 starts off the bench weren't her best so she's a bit of a question mark off the layoff but she's got talent and the versatility to give her rider options - and she ain't facing G1 gals this time, either.

Adriatic Dream

Posted 2 sharp efforts (3rd, 1st) vs. NY-bred optional claimers last fall but then tried open foes Dec. 1 and was no factor; hasn't been seen since but it's encouraging Donk wants to give her another shot at open foes, that he's not giving up on that notion; that being said, the works don't exactly get the pulse racing and this spot came up awfully tough for the level.

Long Blooming Rose

Sire Congrats gets over 7% first time turf winners, over 8% overall turf winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 7 of 26 for $998K, G2 SW, multiple G1 SP, never tried turf; dam's 4 other foals are winners including Neverrguwithrichie (12 wins, 2 on turf, $157K) and Chelsea's Prime (1 turf win); dam won only start, a dirt sprint, earned over $11K; seems to be getting the hang of it but it's new footing and what appear to be tougher foes than she saw last time on dirt, a surface of which she's familiar.-Michael Hammersly

Race 9

Kate Is a Ten

Tenpins has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this filly will need to improve over what she's shown in her four turf starts to get the job done in this spot; add in some poor recent form over dirt, and she looks like more of an outsider.

Flamingo Lane

Consolidator has been a below average influence as a turf sire but this filly can be given the look of a contender when taking into account what she showed us in her one turf attempt prior to this; to be frank, this looks like a good spot to get this filly back on grass.

Off My Cloud

Minor stakes placed miss didn't run poorly in her only start over turf and this looks like a reasonable spot for her second turf attempt; feel that she's eligible to be ready for a sharp run while going sprint-sprint-route for her third start of 2014.

Mistie Royale

She's the only one in here with six wins next to her name and all of those wins have been earned racing over turf; she looks like a decent fit at this level of competition, and her form has been clouded a little bit by a couple of starts over the main track at Tampa.

Bebes Passion

Utopia is another below average turf sire being represented in here and this filly hasn't recorded a 1-2-3 finish over turf from nine starts; note that she's struggled in her five starts against winners since breaking her maiden with a 25k tag attached.

Bozique

Four of her six starts over turf have been in the neighborhood of what it is likely to take to get the job done in this spot and like to see her dropping in class for this; winner from latest won next out here on 5/3 going 1m vs. 40k OPC's with an 85 Beyer.

Precious Franca

She might actually appreciate getting back over turf, but have to wonder if today's one mile distance is more than what she's comfortable with; going to look for her to be involved in the running early on, but won't be surprised if others have more to offer late; Rice has won with 3 of 8 (38%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Cotton Pickin

Stakes placed filly ran well from off the pace to get the job done in her most recent start and she'll benefit from the services of a fine turf rider in Lezcano while making her first start over this turf course; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Tam on 4/30 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 32k OPC's with a 74 Beyer.

Lotsa Noodles

Five-time winner will find herself in a favorable spot if this race has to be moved to the main track, and not only has Arroyo been aboard for a few of her better efforts, but he's won with 3 of 6 mounts for this barn in 2014; runner-up from latest won next out at Med on 10/26 going 1m over turf vs. 20-18k N3L claimers with a 71 Beyer.

Manero

Multiple stakes placed veteran shows up for a barn that has hit at a 25% clip in 2014, and this mare goes out for owner/trainer Nevin; Mejias has won with 4 of 12 (33%) mounts for this outfit in 2014, and the runner-up from her latest race returned to win next out at Wo on 4/27 going 7f vs. 40k OPC's with a 73 Beyer.

Magma (GB)

Obviously it would have been nice to have seen her show more when getting back over turf in her latest outing, but she's capable of a better effort than that, and this will only be her third turf attempt since arriving in America; leaning toward others, but maybe there's still a little room for improvement here.

Implied

If she shows up with the level of performance that she did in her latest outing when surprising nine rivals at just under 26-1, she'll be tough to tackle, and viewing the presence of Rosario as a positive indicator as he's won with 6 of 10 mounts for this barn in 2014.-Brian Pochman