Belmont: Closer Looks for May 4, 2014

Race 1

Aliana

Draws the fence for the cut back to sprint while giving this level another shot; though she wasn't beaten much in either of her inner track sprint tries this season, she hasn't been the same filly who ran well in the maiden ranks back in the fall; pace up top may not be to her liking but the new pilot does well for this barn and the way this gal worked last week shows that she's on her toes for this shorter trip; contender.

Superior Sarah

Statebred has been stuck in this condition for more than 2 years; she owns some recent numbers that fit well in this spot and maybe with the regression behind her she's set to take a good step forward here; several of these have beaten her of late, though, and she hasn't shown up with that knockout punch in some time; prefer to limit her use to underneath in exotics.

Lady Liana

Filly tackles older for the initial time after again finishing off the board against winners; her lone competitive effort came when dropped in to face maiden claimers in Florida this winter and there's not a lot suggesting she'll get back on track in here; have to side with others.

Kara's Match Point

Cuts back a bit after running out of racetrack in a heat that didn't get off too smoothly for her; filly has hit the board in 4 straight at the level so she may be one to include in the minor slots of exotics, but given her lack of sprint lick she could find herself with a lot to do late in here.

Momentary Magic

Four year old hasn't been sighted since Saratoga where she ran her race before the gates even opened and subsequently backed out of it when the real running began; she broke her maiden fresh with a career best number before being fed to the wolves here last Memorial Day and her last Palm Meadows move for this says she's returned ready to run; consider.

Jonata

Barn moves them up second back from the break and this gal was beaten just a couple of lengths for the place when in against one of these last time; filly is another without a lot of early lick and she's been in this condition for a while as well, but with a move forward off her last she could find herself right in the thick of this heat. - Steve Grabowski

Race 2

Irish Jade

He had every right to need his most recent race after taking the winter off and not going to be at all surprised if he shows more with that race behind him; however, it does look like a career best effort is needed to beat this field, so maybe a minor award is the ceiling.

Elroi

He's shown ability from his first start and this son of solid turf influence Leroidesanimaux was a sharp winner in breaking his maiden in his first start as a 4-year-old after a layoff in his latest outing; this really doesn't look like a bad spot for him to meet up with winners for the first time.

Mister Dooley

Lightly raced 5-year-old looks like he's stepped it up in training lately in preparation for his first start of 2014, and in a race that appears to be light on early speed, he's shown the ability to run well when he can grab the early advantage; maybe there's something to be said for Saez piloting the other Bond-trained runner in here, but it's tough to count him out of it when considering the tactical advantage the might have.

Charity Reins

His form improved with the addition of blinkers four starts back, and in the races where he hasn't run well in blinkers, he's had excuses; he closed out his 3-year-old season in style, and feel that there's a chance that he might still have more to show us.

Tapitation

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and G3 winning dam won 4 of 14 starts for 192k, including 2 of 7 turf starts for 129k; 330k purchase is meeting up with older rivals for the first time, but he hasn't run a bad race to date, and there's enough turf in his pedigree to suggest that he might be looking forward to the surface switch.

Balderdash

It would have been nice to have seen him show more in his first start as a 3-year-old in his latest outing, but keep in mind that was after a layoff against open company; his form racing over turf against NY-bred competition as a 2-year-old was solid, and he's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 5 of 18 turf starts for 238k.

Mobridge

He did some nice things racing over turf in the first half of his 3-year-old year before being sidelined, and this is an outfit that can have one ready to fire after a long layoff like this; Alvarado gets more than his share of live calls from Mott.

I Got Id

He proved that he has a good deal of natural ability in his two starts as a 2-year-old and the assignment of Castellano for this might be an indication that his connections are looking for him to be ready to fire in his first start as a 3-year-old; must respect.

Campogiovanni

One of two signed on in here for the Bond barn and it might be worth noting the presence of Saez aboard this one; he showed steady improvement through his 3-year-old season, and if he's ready to pick up where he left off, he'll be a tough one to keep out of the mix.

Noosh's Tale

Of the horses in the main body of this race, he's the only one to touch 80 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, and he's done it a few times; don't like to see that he hasn't posted a win in his last 11 starts going back through 2013, but he has a fitness edge over many of his rivals in here, and a repeat of his latest effort places him squarely in the mix.

Trainingforsuccess

He deserves credit for drawing away from 10 rivals in his first start of 2014 in his latest outing, but that was against a field of 25k N2L claimers, and he was favored to get the job done that day; it is interesting to see Rosario named, but a tough outside post awaits in the event that he draws in, and prefer to lean toward others.

Mr Algebra

Outside of a solid winning performance against a field of 12.5k claimers at Aqueduct two starts ago, his form really hasn't been up to the level of the top contenders in here, and he hasn't finished 1-2 from 10 starts over this turf course; Ortiz has won with 18 of 54 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Sam's Buck

He's capable of producing a pretty decent stretch bid on his best day, but it doesn't look like the early pace in this race is going to heat up all that much, and he's eligible to need a race while making his first start since October. - Brian Pochman

Race 3

The Admiral

One of 2 runners in the field coming out of the high-quality G3 Bay Shore, this colt has rapidly matured since the re-introduction of blinkers; can be ideally set-up here if the outside pair today engage in an immediate pace battle; properly timed moved by the rider makes this colt very tough.

Meadowood

Perfect thus far but he lands into an exceptionally strong overnight stakes today; breeze pattern during the last month is only modest and it will may difficult handling this major class escalation; cannot endorse for the top spot despite the flawless record..

Eye Luv Lulu

Drew away nicely for the score a month ago but came home in average time; his stalking style does fit the race but it seems a certainty he will be forced to rally from much further back here (if all runners go) because of the pace nature of the field; latest training track breeze was respectable; note his debut race was against top-notch statebred Samraat.

Havana

Won the Champagne Stakes last autumn in game fashion and was impressive in defeat in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile when caught in the final yards; talented grey spots the recency edge to the field yet has shown enough ability over 3 different racetracks to overcome; obvious true contender under Hall of Fame rider.

Favorite Tale

Doubly compromised last month when trying seven furlongs for the first time and getting involved in a pace war right out of the gate; unfortunately, he now draws right inside Pure Sensation who might put him to the test in opening strides; excellent a.m. move at his Philly headquarters on 4/19 should help his cause.

Pure Sensation

He broke maiden over the course in style last season and reeled off a pair of solid efforts thereafter over different types of footing; riding strategy here is extremely important as he must avoid slugging it out with Favorite Tale; may use that one as a target pacesetter and stalk from close range; shows a nice breeze pattern over the deep Payson strip. - Jim Kachulis

Race 4

Momma's Mark

Makes his first start of the year while tackling older rivals for the initial time in this spot; he ran ok on the local sod last year and doesn't look to face a lot of confirmed surface form in this spot; doesn't have much speed and that could be a concern from the inside draw in a big field, but with a top pilot getting aboard he warrants a look.

Stalagmite

Showed solid early foot when unveiled on the local lawn last summer but didn't have much to offer late in that one and his subsequent try upstate got rained off; didn't threaten in his first start of the year across town, but that came on dirt and though he doesn't have much pedigree for it, maybe he'll like the return to this footing; can go better with his last behind him.

Adams Note

Debuted in a key heat at this meeting last year and proved little match for a couple of good ones on the main track; idle since, he'll remove the hood for this one and the barn does boast some recent luck with its second out runners; outfit hasn't done so well fresh or with first time turfers, though; sire gets 11% first surface winners and the dam did win sprinting prior to dropping 2 winners who never tried the green; nice to see Velazquez take the call and this colt should find this bunch easier than what he encountered in his lone try, but don't know that he'll like this footing.

Mineral Water

Gets a switch to the top local pilot for his first try on the green after a pretty good try off the brief freshening on the Aqueduct main track; he ran ok sprinting over the inner and this barn boasts excellent numbers with its turf sprinters; dam was winless from 5 surface tries and her lone foal to try the green was 0 for 2 on it; sire is 4 for 35 with his first time turfers.

Scare City

Cuts back after setting the pace in the slop and fading last out and now he'll give the lawn a shot for a barn that boasts some recent success with the applicable angles; sire gets about 15% winners with his first time surface runners and the dam never tried the green nor did any of her foals win over it.

Winnitude

This guy has shown very little in his 5 starts on dirt and now he'll get a solid rider switch for the move to the infield for an outfit that hits at a low clip with this type; his sire is just 3 for 66 with first turfers and the unraced dam's foals to try the footing were a combined 0 for 7 over it.

Chang's Secret

Fresh gelding did little against cheaper on the inner this winter but now he'll get back to the green where he earned his career best number in a near miss placing in the fall; there does look to be some lick in here and that should certainly help as he catches a field without a lot of surface experience; price should be solid to consider using him.

Shinnecock Bay

Sire gets just 3% winners from his first time surface runners and the dam never tried the footing prior to dropping foals who were a combined 0 for 4 over it; gelding did show some speed before fading in his 2 starts on the inner and he doesn't face a very difficult bunch, but don't know that his best will come out over this stuff.

Stardom

Colt ran ok to get third money behind a couple of subsequent winners after taking some money first out across town; sire gets about 14% first time surface winners from his offspring and this guy is the first foal to race out of an unraced dam; he's breezed well since the debut run and the barn is profitable with both second out runners and those trying the green for the first time; contender.

All Over Me

Distant runner up in each of his last 2 on dirt cuts back to sprint in his turf debut; sire gets 13% winners with his first turfers and 6 of the dam's 9 wins came on the green prior to dropping a first time turf winner; don't like that they were willing to lose him for such a cheap tag just prior to turf season, but he does have a right to like this footing.

Saltine Warrior

Ran some of the field's best numbers on the local lawn last season and now he'll return from 4 1/2 months on the bench to give it another shot; new hood today looks to have helped him in his recent drills and this outfit knows how to bring them back ready; one to beat.

Thug Daddy

Ran well despite trouble first out at Saratoga before another tough trip did him in as the chalk in his subsequent try; idle since, he'll tackle the lawn in his comebacker and the barn boasts a sharp ROI with its returnees; sire gets 14% first surface winners and the dam was winless from 7 turf starts prior to dropping this guy.

Where's Elliot

AE showed some early foot in her dirt starts and now he'll return from 4 months on the shelf to try the green; sire gets 12% winners from his first turfers and this guy is the first foal to race out of a dam who never tried the lawn; will face older for the first time if he gets in and has quite a bit to prove.

Mighty Zealous

MTO was beaten chalk from the fence second time out over the inner but the effort was improved and now he'll move to an outside slot; he's had some time since and returned to breeze ok for a barn who wins off this brief type of freshening; contender if the rains come.

Freudex

MTO earned a solid number first out while being beaten less than a couple of lengths by an odds on winner; he was stuck in a wide spot in that heat but showed a solid late kick and he had to have gotten something out of that initial effort; if this gets moved to the main they'll have him to hold off.

Greg's Intuition

MTO will start from an outside slot if he gets to go here and he does boast a solid interim half mile drill at his Parx base; showed speed in his debut run there but had little to offer early on the cut back behind one of these in his local debut; prefer others on the win end. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Jack's R Wild

One for 29 is a tough number to bet into with any degree of confidence; only in the money twice since the 12-1 win; no speed, no asset; passing.

Irish Moon

Beat 6 in the lone win; he did improve in the other 3rd off the layoff run without running in the money; a bit more keen to run last time on the stretch out and even though he has the 2 races to draw from, it's hard to take a positive stance.

The Snickers Kid

Pro was getting to the winner in last but not sure he was beaten by anybody; the winner at ATL prior win was against $4K claimers; could see this one close up early but he has some things to iron out.

Do a Legger

Okay, last couple of wins have been in the condtioned claimers but the price was higher in last and runner comes to the party sharp; dueled into submission 3 back, note place horse in last was over 3 clear; runner has much more speed than he just flashed; can't fault those that are rooting for a hat trick.

Freddie G

Educated in the first two races but agile enough to overcome the eventful trip for the maiden breaker; colt was inching toward the winner in last and at least he got a couple of drills since the last effort; there is some class on the bottom side as dam took a Grade 1 and banked over $325K.

Onecats Chance

Two of the 3 efforts vs. winners have been decent; hung wide in last but he was still over 4 clear; gelding ran well locally the last time in town and the drill on the 25th was pretty snappy; rates long look in all the slots.

Sanctify

Colt showed talent from Day One; he may have just improved on the off surface in last but runner has more speed than he just showed; like the series of drills since the last effort; there is some class on the bottom side as although this is winning dam's first to race, the dam was kin to stakes winner and near $300K earner Gratiaen; interesting. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Ever Rider (ARG)

Respect this invader; runner has shown the ability to be close up or come from left field as he was getting to the winner in last; it was mud but at least he got a feel of the surface and the distance is well within his range; rates long look in all the slots.

Micromanage

Nothing wrong with hitting the exacta half the time; colt comes off his best race ever as the prior stakes score was at the shore when he reeled them all in; Grade 1 placed when well beaten, runner comes to this race relatively fresh and if he repeats last, he should be right there when the smoke clears.

Mr Palmer

Runner was on the Triple Crown trail last time briefly; he's been consistent this year but last ground in last late and now has to go farther; he does bring a solid stalk and pounce style to the table; his tacitical speed should give him first run on the deep closers; can't be counted out.

Jonesy Boy

He could have sulked after being bothered early last time; instead, he put his head down, tried hard and was getting to the winner late; racer gets some class from the bottom side as the winning dam is kin to BC Classic winner and over $3 million earner Volponi and dam dropped 3 others that banked over $200K; don't ignore.

Awesome Vision

Life and death for the last score; he has the 2 races under the girth now but he was losing ground at crunch time; can't be thrilled with the local slate; has some things to iron out.

Ground Transport

Pushed action at FG two back but had nothing left; nice ride in last; pilot coaxed him along on the lead and still had enough left when it counted; off a career effort, like the way he was extending late and he should be able to gain a great position early if not make the top; repeat well within the realm.

Quaesitor

Must prove he can win on dirt; the old turf to synthetic move worked to perfection three back and he just thrived after that; a true stayer, note runners in the company line were clear and would expect rider to take a little hole, hope there is a legit pace, try to find a seam in time and attempt to reel them all in. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Grand Strand

Very fine try in his Big A debut and he ran into an above average group when attempting a mile at Gulfstream; he has money chances here if not shuffled back from tricky post; the betting value should be there once again.

Mischieviously

No match for Grand Strand in last month's match-up but he lost significant ground in that effort which followed an extensive layoff; addition of blinkers can help towards turning the tables as should the latest improved half-mile breeze.

Tiz Dark

Very fine workout regimen for this son of Tiznow who twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 6.42 million (his offspring have scored in 44 out of 617 debuts); the dam lost her only attempt; among the winning siblings is 76K earner Light Your World.

Financial Modeling

Respectable showing in his maiden voyage considering the slow getaway; his sire won the Derby and 4.38 million while the dam was without victory in 5 attempts; winning siblings include 156K bankroller Town Flit.

All Included

Sired by Inclucde, a G1 winner who captured 1.65 million; his descendants have won nearly 11 percent of their initial starts; the dam won 3 of 10 races and 49K; among the winning sibs is 248K earner Sarach.

Kato

Nice finish in that second venture when just missing the place; his undefeated sire won multiple G1s and 749K while the mom won 13 of 36 and 479K; there are no winning siblings ot highlight; should be a major late presence again.

Sunset District

See how his barn mate, Meadowood, performed in today's third race and adjust your opinion of this firster who outworked him at Monmouth on 4/28; this colt's sire is multiple champ Curlin who netted 10.5 million and whose offspring have won first out 13 percent of the time; the dam won 4 of 27 and 403K; sib to 179K earner Bluegrass Princess.

Heyaarat

Big disappointment at 8 to 5 at Gulfstream especially in light of the price tag at sale; his sire won multiple G2s and 769K while the dam was a G1 winner who garnered 1.09 million; this is her only foal to compete; some upbeat workouts since the failed debut.

Hallowed

Held on well until the final furlong of his first route attempt and that could prove a good foundation for this cutback in distance; latest half-mile breeze was sharp and he should be prominently placed in the early stages this afternoon; looks like a comfortable fit.

Legend

Lost ground when chasing Hallowed last time out yet still was good enough to be a clear-cut second; this outermost post can actually work in his favor as Saez can overlook the flow of the race; logical contender but he may not offer much in the way of betting value. - Jim Kachulis