Belmont: Closer Looks for May 30, 2014

Race 1

Jack's Lion

Poor record since day one except for that bewildering try on the Belmont turf just about a year ago when setting the tempo until the stretch; perhaps wait until he returns to that course and distance before believing he can pull off a shocker.

Cool Cat Tale

Raced evenly in his maiden voyage 5 weeks ago when seeing the heels of Political Farce; his prolific sire won at the G2 level while earning 360K; the dam won 1 of 15 attempts and 38K; among the winning siblings is 150K earner Brite Betty.

Metropolitan Storm

Hard to recommend as he has yet to finish in the money and did not do any running in 2 prior attempts at this oval (although both of those efforts were against better stock); nothing special about the latest a.m. breeze and a sudden turnaround is unlikely.

Safari Samba

If he can transfer his Big A form to here, he should prove a tough customer; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.26 million while the mom won 3 of 8 and 229K; sib to 339K bankroller Agave Kiss; obvious true contender.

Sand Paper

Dismal efforts last season while high odds each time; on the plus side of the ledger are some strikingly improved workouts during the last month or so; tries fourth different rider in as many starts though and cannot be given much recommendation.

Island Therapy

In his Belmont debut, he turned in an even performance earning a personal best Beyer in the process; would benefit today if Political Farce is challenged in the early stages or if that key rival sets too fast a tempo alone; seems worth trifecta inclusion.

Political Farce

The clear speed once again and perhaps this is the day he can steal away; that presumption is based on the latest training track breeze, a vast improvement over the previous one a week before; long overdue for the score.

Freud's Fetish

Newcomer was sired by Freud who won 1 of 12 and 44K and whose offspring have won nearly 12 percent of their initial starts; the dam was without victory in 8 tries; winning siblings include 90K earner Nikkis Nut.

Wild Skye

Some upbeat a.m. moves for this beginner; his sire won a G1 and 570K in total; progeny of D'wildcat have won 34 out of 266 debuts; the dam won 2 of 7 and 36K; among the winning siblings is 187K earner Mr. Green. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Roman Approval

A 3-time winner in Puerto Rico he was no match for the heavily-favored Bay of Plenty in his local debut but it was a decent effort in his first start here; horse that beat him in his last three in Puerto Rico finished second in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera in the US at Santa Anita May 10; easy to imagine him moving forward in his second start back for Hushion who has solid stats in the category; consider for the exotics.

Charge Now

Nice win in a key race in his latest at Gulfstream and the horse that finished second earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in a MSW race her May 14; this guy may have tipped his hand when he worked a bullet five furlongs in :59.60 over this surface May 19 and being a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver that could be a considerable hand; the pick.

Steve Came Thru

This seems like a tough spot for a horse that just broke his maiden for $20K and received a 55 Beyer Speed Figure; he's the first foal out of a mare that won six races and earned $202K but four of her wins came on grass so maybe he'll be better running on turf; hard to support him here, though.

Lieutenant Seany O

First start on the east coast for Jacobson was a good one and the horse he beat came back to win a $40K starter here with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure; this guy couldn't get it done in his latest as the chalk at Monmouth but he had some traffic trouble and he probably wants a bit more distance,which he gets here; contender.

Howl

Carried his speed the whole way to win a $50K maiden claimer May 17 and that was a huge improvement over what he's shown us before; a much tougher assignment here, though, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Roman Approval use his good speed from the rail; first foal out of a 1/4 mare that earned $19K should be heard from early but will probably have a hard time makng an impact late.

Long Water

Like the way his Beyer Speed Figures are heading and he had to alter his course midstretch in order to break his maiden in his latest; Darley-bred is the second foal out of $2 million multiple Grade 1 winner Round Pond and his only sibling won a couple of $100K stakes and placed in the Grade 3 Excelsior; he has substantially improved wearing blinkers in his last two and with his breeding there could be plenty of upside potential; contender. - Randy Goulding

Race 4

Enchanted Dreams

Late running mare has a nice pedigree for turf and this looks like a favorable spot for her to land in while making her second start back from a layoff; not wild about the rail post for her at this trip, but still feel that she merits respect as a contender.

It's Your Dime

She has turf in her pedigree as well, and even though she's struggled to maintain a forward gear late in her races, she's shown that she's fast enough to run with these; Ortiz has won with 4 of 7 (57%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Golden Maria

Tough to build a favorable case in this direction based on what she's done in her first four starts, and that includes a couple of turf starts; maybe she can get involved in the running early on, but others figure to have more to offer late.

Daddy's Big Girl

Lightly raced 6-year-old has the early speed to play a role in the way that this race shapes up, but she's obviously going to need to produce a much improved overall performance to have a say in the outcome; winner from latest won next out at FL on 5/24 going 6f vs. N2L alw. rivals with a 59 Beyer.

Bonfire Heart

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; she's another in here who is going to need to find a way to show noticeable improvement in order to prove to be a threat.

Naughty Matilda

Can't ignore the early speed that she brings with her but she hasn't shown enough in her first three starts to help give her a competitive look, and that includes a start over turf in her latest outing; the turn back in distance doesn't hurt, but going to look in another direction.

Saratoga Karaoke

Her three starts racing over the Belmont Park turf have been three of her better efforts, but it does look like she's going to need to show up with her sharpest performance to date to have a chance at the top spot; note that she was beaten by today's rival It's Your Dime in her latest outing.

Acrostic

If you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, she has it, but she earned that figure in May of last year; however, with the assignment of Castellano, there's reason to believe the Lerman barn feels that she's ready for her return to action; winner from debut won next out at Bel on 6/11 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 65k OPC with an 80 Beyer.

Coralita

Three of her five turf starts have been respectable performances and her two performances that weren't respectable were in her career debut and in a race where she was eased; if she feels up to one of her better efforts, she can make some noise against these.

Today Not Tommorow

She hasn't made much of an impression through her first 11 starts, and she's even made four starts over turf; she earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure in her latest start and she has to really step it up over that performance to have a say in the outcome.

Kushmee Kat

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam won once from eight starts for 6k, including 0-for-4 over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Inkster (4-21, 36k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 8k); she can add some more fuel to the early pace fire, but she' recorded back-to-back -0 Beyer Speed Figures to begin her career.

Benny's Bullet

If you can excuse her latest performance after a layoff, she has every bit the look of a top contender, and the drop to the 40k maiden claiming level might be just what she needs; this barn has put a lot of live horses on the track at this meeting, and going to look for this miss to bounce back with a sharper start.

Las Olas Azur

She's run well in two of her first four starts and she responded well in her most recent race when dropped in with maiden claiming competition for the first time; if this race has to be moved to the main track, she'll command top contender status. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Ruby's Rocketman

Moves back to dirt while dropping in for a tag in his first start for this new barn; he'll get a weight break with the bug named and he has a few local works under his belt for the return from the short break; speed he showed first out in Florida last fall would help him from this inside slot and the number he earned in that slightly shorter heat is better than any of these have run; if he can get to the top he may prove tough to run down.

Gentrify

Newcomer is bred to like it wet and his sire gets about 15% first out winners from his offspring; minor SW dam was a 2 time sprint winner who has dropped 7 sprint winners including 158K earner Big Flirt who won 12 times and SW Paint Me Red who banked 114K; works don't offer many clues and the crafty outfit has been on a poor run with its debut runners.

Eight Cents

Didn't have enough to threaten the top 2 when third for a higher price on the cut back to sprint a couple of weeks back; gelding did show some tracking foot in that one and he'll get a switch to a solid journeyman pilot for the drop to a more suitable level; he's the most experienced runner in here so there may not be a lot of room for upside, but he's one to consider.

Peanutsnpopcorn

Sire gets 6% first out winners from his offspring and the G2 SW dam banked 150K prior to dropping 4 route winners including SP, 114K earner Batter Up who was better going long on the green; there's a full worktab showing for a barn that doesn't do so well with its newcomers and they do offer him for sale here; may be better when stretched out.

Reach for Yield

Hood goes on for his return to dirt following a break off the turf route fade in Florida; main track debut run here last fall wasn't much but this outfit does do well off the break and they name Castellano for his return; he's kin to 7 winners including G2 SP, SW and 209K earner Lucky Pulpit, so maybe he'll have some more to offer in the comebacker for the hot barn.

Indian Rain Dance

Sire gets 10% winners from his debut runners and the unraced dam dropped 2 sprint winners including 217K earner Bravo Romeo who himself won first out; works aren't much but the are steady of late and this outfit can get one ready to fire.

Perfect American

Showed sharp early foot before tiring to finish behind one of today's foes last out; maybe it doesn't take as much for him to get to the top in this one, but he does again draw outside and he'll have another half panel to deal with today; barn hasn't won a race all year.

Chisholm

This 400K in training buy last spring took plenty of money in his Saratoga debut but ran into a pretty good one and didn't have much to offer in the lane; idle since, they'll offer him for a fraction of his auction price but the barn does well with all of the applicable angles here and this guy is kin to a handful of winners including multiple SW and 353K earner Snow Cone; he'll again take attention at the windows and wouldn't be a surprise against these. - Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Familyofroses

Hung wide last time after the tough beat in the off going; apparently not much of a work horse but he ran well in defeat in the last sprint when this rider was up; show horse in that stakes returned to win a $35K N3L optional; must flee the rail, look for her late if at all.

Bileaps and Bounds

Style no secret, she's best when sent along; filly has more speed than she just flashed and note show horse two back was nearly 5 clear; improved move last Friday is a positive; don't sell too short.

Humorus Dilemma

Miss came back running in a professional manner; note three exited the debut to graduate next out; would have liked to have seen some local activity but she has done nothing wrong and has a right to have a solid career as kin to Grade 1 winner and near $750K earner Willy Beamin; don't discount.

Run a Dubb Dubb

Proven locally and she was getting to the winner last time; filly has been sound enough to race 32 times and she is still just 4; she has shown she can be placed anywhere and still perform; must at least be left in the exotic conversation.

She's Stones Sis

Even when she brings her A game, she tends to get late when the real racing begins; she has the 3 races to draw from now but has been handled by a number of today's foes; needs very best.

Lumineuse

Wraps taken off for the sloppy attempt and it worked to perfection last time; mare may have disliked the yielding course two back and has never been out of the exacta locally; show horse in last was nearly 7 clear and that one returned to win next out in an N1X but with only a 53 Beyer; fit enough to drill a couple of times since last including the solid blowout on Sunday; too sharp not to take seriously.

Your Time Is Up

She could be a bit fragile as the races are spaced; can't be thrilled with the local slate either; she has natural speed but doesn't need the lead to succeed; she has rebounded from poor efforts before, check out the maiden breaker; must find a way to turn the tables on the Rice charge among others. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Divine Luck

Won 12 races ago December, 2012, on GP green at 1 Mile with rider Castellano who is listed on It's My Time for this; posted a 3-0-0-2 with Johnny V who reunites for this and V does very well for McGaughey (27% BEL winners since '13); the 2-back runner-up finisher posted a 72 Beyer speed figure in a next-out PIM-optional-claiming win; the 3-back winner repeated in an SA-OPC with an 88.

Holiday's Jewel

Back on turf for the 1st time since October noting her victory last summer at longer on the SAR sod; 3 of her last 4 defeats were by double-digit margins so isn't coming into this anywhere near top form; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU starter allowance with a 95 Beyer then made it 3 in a row in a BEL-OPC with an 87.

Ubiquitous Mantle (IRE)

Projects as the one to catch as Roses for Romney is the only other runner with any gate speed; tired late in latest at GP while cutting back 1F for this can help the cause; the BEL Widener turf at 1 Mile this meet has favored closers; through May 26 only 1 of 15 winners went gate-to-wire at today's distance.

Sheza Heartbreaker

Won on AQU 'good' turf at 1 Mile but stamina is the concern off latest fade when getting the less-than-firm green she desires but faltering; gets her 4th different rider in as many races which is not a good-win angle; projects to press the pace then hopes to hang on late for a share.

Frege

Defeated the 6th and 10th-place finishers from last; they Beyered 66-56 in next-out PIM starter alw. and CRC-25K-claiming wins; September's near-miss finish on BEL-Widener Turf at 1 Mile represents a field-best Beyer speed figure when rallying strongly; this turf course at 1 Mile has favored late runners all meet which fits her profile; 27 last-out GP runners have won this spring at BEL; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 75 in a next-out AQU-OPC win .

Premium (GB)

Her trainer is superb with fresh runners scoring all 4 BEL wins this meet with runners coming off 30 day or longer layoffs; the barn is 2-for-4 with 1st-time Imports since 2013 but we haven't seen one win yet at the current meet; pre-rest form saw her stalk the speed but enters off 2 starts where she beat only 2 rivals combined.

Claiming Victory

Blinkers on for the 1st time trying to shake up the form off her flat-sprint effort; flashed speed in her only Mile grass start where fading; projects to chase Ubiquitous Mantle from the gate then hopes to show the passing gear missing from last pair; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 74 in a next-out GP-OPC win.

Abbey Street

Fresh last-out KEE runners dominated the winner's circle last week at BEL and have won 18 races this meet; right style being a deep closer on a WIdener turf; one winner last week here scored from 21 lengths back at the 1st call; it's been over one year since she's won and will have to get by Minx who beat her in Florida over the winter; the 4-back winner repeated in a GP-OPC with an 84 Beyer.

Quick as a Bunny

3-year-old vs. older rivals for the 1st time; sire went 0-for-2 as a runner on grass during career and at stud is 0-for-9 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 5-0-1-1 grass dam (4K); 2 foals to race on the lawn are 0-for-7 combined; she is the only starter without any green experience.

Roses for Romney

Good-gate speed but rated nicely in last to win; deep closers' were winning the Mile-Widener turf races last week here; New York bred gets tested by open company again not showing much in a stakes 2 back; switched from Pletcher to the Clement barn then drilled a new-career best Beyer speed figure and best-last-race number; hopes to avoid a bounce with 37 days away after drilling that new Top which occurred followng more than a 5-month layoff.

Fizzy Pink (GB)

Just 2 starts during career producing both exacta finishes with tons of upside for this; the Beyers need an improvement as she takes on winners for the 1st time a huge-class test; 6 of the 9 winners for the trainer won with this meet occurred with 30-day or longer fresh runners'; the runner-up finisher from last was 5th next out (66) in an BEL-MSW defeat while the show runner finished 2nd in her next loss a PIM MSW (68).

Minx

0-for-6 on dirt so willing to excuse latest defeat 44 days ago; her December maiden breaker on wet turf saw the runner-up and show finishers Beyer 78-68 in next-out KEE-GP-MSW wins; 1 of 3 trainer's winners this meet came with 30 day or longer absent runners while just 1-for-14 dirt-to-turf since 2013.

It's My Time (GB)

Will have to get over the 1-for-19 record to back but this 1st Import's trainer has already won with a fresh runner at the current-BEL meet; gets 1st Lasix and has worked nicely in the USA for this; the lone win was on wet turf at shorter; great sign that sizzling Castellano is listed to ride here when seemingly having other options. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Buddy's Tiz

The move to turf combined with the addition of blinkers has helped this colt improve his game, and he's favorably drawn in the rail post going 1 1/16m over the inner turf; at the very least, he appears to be well meant in his first start of the year with Velazquez getting the call.

Day Six

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; 1 1/16m is a demanding distance for a first-time starter, but a couple of his workouts suggest that he owns some ability.

Jimmy Fillpot

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and stakes placed dam won once from eight turf starts for 70k; runner up from debut won next out at Mth on 5/24 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 66 Beyer; Ortiz has won with 20 of 66 (30%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Social Affair

This colt has some quality to his pedigree and he's a 1/2 to G1 winner Dancing Forever (5-22, 901k over turf) and Puzzling (2-14, 112k over turf); maybe there's something to said for Saez being aboard another in this one, but Rosario gets plenty of live calls from this barn.

None Like Nolan

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and G2 stakes placed dam won 4 of 22 starts for 189k, including 2 of 10 turf starts for 102k; Bravo has won with 10 of 28 (36%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Mischieviously

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; he's another nicely bred runner in here for the McGaughey barn and the runner up from his latest race returned to win next out here on 5/25 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 95 Beyer.

Better Man

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and G3 winning dam won 3 of 14 starts for 191k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this gelding is a full to minor stakes winner La Mejor Fiesta (2-7, 79k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 43k); turf is a question, but he's shown us that he can run a little bit in his first two starts.

All My Trails

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and multiple stakes wiinning dam won 8 of 33 starts for 328k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 54k; this gelding is a 1/2 to Double Shotgun (6-30, 100k over turf); capable win-early barn was trying to get this one over turf at first asking.

Lord Trondor

Like the idea of this colt getting back over turf when seeing what he did at first asking and he finished right behind today's rivals Decisive Edge in that tough maiden event; Castellano has won with 47 of 133 (35%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Decisive Edge

Bernardini has been a poor influence as a turf sire, but this colt clearly commands a good deal of respect in this spot based on what he's done in his two turf starts; this barn is hitting at a 24% clip in 2014 and Solis seems to know the right buttons to push aboard this runner.

Kato

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 13 of 36 starts for 479k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 45k; he beat today's rival Mischievously in his latest start and the runner up from that race returned to win next out here on 5/25 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 95 Beyer.

Flat Jack

There's plenty of solid dirt form in this race to consider, so if this race has to be moved to the main track, it's likely to come up a competitive affair; this colt will deserve to be listed among the contenders, but he's going to have to earn it. - Brian Pochman