Belmont: Closer Looks for May 3, 2014

Race 1

Warrior's Crown

The good news is he's been in front at the 6F marker in both starts; the bad news is he has been on the bench since October; capable-long layoff trainer had him working in Florida but a good sign that he waited until BEL a track we know he loves; scary if ready.

Real Estate Rich

Uncoupled with barnmate Reserved Quality; great sign that his 1st race off the claim represents a career-best Beyer; went last-to-1st when normally he races midpack or closer; getting up at 6F is one issue as is making his 1st start at BEL Park; defeated the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 69 in a next-out AQU-16K-claiming win.

Chapman

Likes to be forwardly placed; projects to be chasing Mr O'Leary from the gate; not a good sign that he exits his lowest Beyer since May, 2013; has defeated open-company rivals before but has been at his very best vs. NY breds; if we could only forgive him for latest as 2-back he beat the runner-up finisher who Beyered 84 in a next-out AQU-starter alw. win; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU alw. with a 95 Beyer.

Reserved Quality

Huge effort when sprinting again exploding last to 1st to score; is uncoupled with barnmate Real Estate Rich; interesting that both runners have similar off-the-pace styles; the March 9 winner repeated in a 35K claimer with an 81 Beyer.

Mr. O'Leary

Best Beyer 2 back was right on the lead losing all chance in last when bumped at the break; seems like he will be all out to get the front then play catch me ig you can; beat the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 80 in a next-out GP-alw. win.

Pazolini

Exits a best-last-race Beyer when making a dramatic-2nd-time out 39 point improvement; today's freshening is just 48 days compared with nearly 8 months idle for latest-superb effort; the runner-up finisher from latest Beyered 16 in a next-out 10th-place finish.

Palm Island

Favored then delivered his 2nd lowest Beyer ever; cutting back to his shortest-distance test ever helps the cause but needs a well-timed ride; the 2-back runner-up finisher posted a 94 speed figure in a next-out GP-optional-claiming win; high-percentage route-to-sprint trainer adds to the appeal. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Penella

Showed more fighting speed and determination in the last try but the mile distance proved too much; she should be within range now and prior experience when breaking from the rail is a plus; strong numbers for this trainer/jockey combo.

Offlee Catty

This filly was sired by Offlee Wild who won the G1 Suburban and 976K overall; the dam won 3 of 10 and 24K; winning siblings include 246K earner Bourbon Street; she was involved in a duel in her first effort, a good educational run.

Mary's in Utopia

Raced evenly when visiting the claiming ranks for the first time; suffered through slow starts in prior attempts at this oval but can upgrade with that much needed tightener under her belt; a square price is assured.

Patriot's Jewel

Hard to recommend as she has yet to earn a money finish; showed no liking at all for this course last season and even with the light package today, does not seem a likely contender; pass for now.

Peach Lake

A clear-cut second in her last performance and the numerical rise in class today should not dissuade you; seems to be rounding to form now and can secure another exacta finish if a duel develops (a strong possibility if all runners go).

Kicken Livi

Today's scheduled blinker addition can help her focus as she attempts to rebound from last summer's debut at Saratoga; her sire won the G1 Champagne and 971K while the dam was without victory in 4 tries; sib to 139K earner Purely Majestic.

Nessa's Princess

Late foal was sired by G3 winner Maybry's Boy who banked 322K and whose descendants have won 2 of 9 initial starts; the dam won 4 of 37 attempts and 63K; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Hot On Ice

Deceptive effort in that maiden voyage over the inner dirt when losing a 3-way photo for the place; her sire won a G2 sprint and 388K while the mom won 5 of 13 and 102K; sib to 194K earner Myakka.

Knoxy

Never threatened in her unveiling but she did not have the smoothest of getaways that day; her sire won the Belmont Stakes and 1.67 million; the dam won 3 of 14 and 43K; winning siblings include the versatile Ibboyee who netted 701K.

Lady Rhubarb

She is one of the main speeds to consider especially since he is in for a tag for the first time; ran a game second in her last appearance here and will prove dangerous if able to win the early pace battle over Offlee Catty; obvious true contender. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Gotham News

Any horse that can beat 15 at first asking can run; far from disgraced in the dirt debut, note this rider is 27% for Kenneally in the last year or so; a bit more keen to drill last Monday; rates long look in all the slots.

Abraham

Gelding was on the Derby trail for awhile last year but wonder if that sloppy finale knocked the starter out of him?; barn good with new stock and with returnees like this; could see him sitting mid-pack early hoping the speed comes back; don't ignore.

Elnaawi

Shelved after being bumped in the Wood, he was in tight in the return and was hung wide from post 9 last time; stable rider hired, 2 solid works of late, he should be fit enough now and he has a right to have a solid career as kin to multiple G1 winner and over $1.7 million earner To Honor and Serve.

Catron

Runner may have just needed the last; no secret to start career, he was between horses in his stakes debut and the route last time was not all that bad considering her started from post 10; rider has had good success for this barn over the years; interesting.

Balance of Power

Short, long, it doesn't matter; this gelding has a penchant for finding the wire; note he won on the stretch out two back and the blood is there for him to mature with class as kin to Archarcharch, who took a G1 and earned nearly $850K; can't be dismissed.

Mighty Ian

Not a ton of speed in here, look for rider to send with a theft on the agenda; he's proven he can sit just off the pace if need be, like the way he extended in last and note the show horse was clear for fun; repeat well within the realm. - Brian Mulligan

Race 4

Sophie's Style

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and stakes placed dam won 2 of 10 turf starts for 105k; she's by a top turf sire and that workout on April 10 looks okay.

Paris Sunshine

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and multiple stakes placed dam won 3 of 12 starts for 74k, including 0-for-1 over turf; she has some early speed but it's tough to give her a favorable push in her turf debut based on what she's done so far.

Zafiro Azul

Not wild about Utopia as a turf sire, but she did show a little bit of late life in her career debut, her only start over turf, and she deserves another chance to see what she can do racing on grass.

Barbara's Smile

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and stakes winning dam won 4 of 30 starts for 95k, and she didn't make a turf start; this miss is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes palced G City Gal (3-15, 298k, including 0-for-1 over turf); 72k purchase shows some decent looking workouts, and despite recent statistics, this is a barn that can be live with a firster.

It's Your Dime

Have to be at least mildly concerned when seeing how this 5-year-old mare has struggled to maintain a forward gear late in her races, but she's a good fit at this level of competition and she's making her first start for a barn that has made the most of their 35 starters in 2014; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Sar on 8/7 going 5 1/2f over turf vs. 35k MCL's with a 75 Beyer.

Rufus Ruth

She's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 4 of 12 turf starts for 287k, and this filly has shown a little something in her starts over turf wearing blinkers; after a slow 2013, this barn has turned things around in 2014, and that alone might be a reason to look for a sharper try from this miss.

Lloyd Harbor

She boasts the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here and she's out of a G3 stakes placed dam who won 2 of 17 turf starts for 86k; if she can reproduce her latest performance, she figures to be right in the hunt through the final furlong.

Today Not Tommorow

From 10 starts, she's yet to run a race that is anywhere near fast enough to suggest that she can threaten the top contenders in here, and that includes a few starts over turf; strictly an outsider.

Pitched

Maybe the drop in class combined with a turn back in distance can help her along, but it would have been nice to have seen her show a little bit more in her turf debut in her latest outing; prefer to lean toward others.

Make Your Point

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and stakes placed dam won 2 of 15 starts for 57k, and she didn't make a turf start; this is a barn that has done some of their better work with turf starters over the years, and they have had some recent success with starters in the maiden claiming ranks.

Saratoga Karaoke

Three of her five starts over turf have been decent efforts and she looks like a solid fit at this 40k maiden claiming level; if she brings her 'A' game to the table, there isn't any reason why she can't have a say in the outcome.

Flatbow

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was winless from six starts, and she didn't make a start over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes placed Lime Rickey (7-40, 456k over turf); Pletcher-trained miss might be looking forward to a move to turf.

Giantess

She needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in and she's going to have to dial up an improved performance if she's planning on getting herself into the mix against these; she looks like more of an outsider.

Mare and Cher

It's fair to question most of the dirt form lined up in this race, so if this event has to be taken off the turf, she'll have the look of a top contender after an encouraging performance in her career debut.

Ballerena Bliss

This event will come up relatively soft if it has to be moved to the main track, but this filly is going to need to step it up over what she's shown in her first three starts if she's to prove to be a player in this spot.

Will Do

She's improved from start-to-start to begin her career and she finished right behind one of today's key rivals in Mare and Cher in her latest outing; she's clearly worthy of contender status while going out for a capable barn. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

The Sandman

Sired by the talented Bernardini who won multiple G1s and 3.06 million and whose progeny have scored in 11 percent of their debuts; the dam won 1 of 7 attempts and 51K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Ireland's Eye

A long set of a.m. moves at five-eighths to consider; his sire won a G2 and 562K; offspring of Cowtown Cat have scored in 3 of 46 initial starts; the dam won 1 of 15 and 27K; among the winning siblings is 76K earner Coweta.

Bay of Biscay

New face hails from multiple G1 victor Giant's Causeway who banked 3.07 million and whose descendants are 72 for 678 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 1 of 4 and 21K: sib to 1.3 million earner Warning Flash.

Cost Affective

Keeps earning checks and did have a legit excuse in his only appearance here; exits a personal best performance at Aqueduct but lands into a field that appears loaded and has all the makings of a future key race; does not warrant 2 to 1 therefore.

Vicksburg Bluffs

Toss the first race as he did not get away cleanly; his sire won a G1 and 424K while the dam won 3 of 27 and 63K; sib to several multiple winners including G3 Crowned Dancer who amassed 353K; blinker addition can help with the awakening.

Seldom Seen Slim

See the first runner in the field for same sire information; the dam involved won 5 of 19 and 249K; this is her only foal to compete; now in the barn of a top percentage trainer, this runner cannot be overlooked.

Montana Cowboy

A fine try in his first run at Gulfstream and note the trainer's record with second-time starters; the colt was sired by multiple G1 Grand Slam who captured 971K; the dam won 1 of 4 races and 11K; there are no winning siblings to highlight.

Midnight Frolic

This colt's sire was of the G1 variety, a winner of 1.22 million; offspring of Roman Ruler have won 36 out of 270 debuts; the dam scored in 4 of 26 appearances earning 80K; sib to G2 victor Smok'n Frolic who garnered 1.53 million.

Cashmere Cat

Although losing to Cost Affective a month ago, he did not have an easy journey that day when jammed between rivals; his sire won a G1 and 1.69 million while the dam was unraced; among the winning sibs is 75K earner May Fourteen.

Bolt From the Blue

Beginner was sired by More Than Ready who won 1.02 million including tally in the G1 King's Bishop (his descendants have won 87 out of 701 initial tries); the dam won 3 of 8 attempts and 134K; sib to 153K earner Electric Chair.

The Big Beast

Closed with a rush first time out at Oaklawn and was probably best; his sire won a G1 and 1.08 million while the dam won 2 of 16 and 90K; sib to 113K earner Koh I Noor; definite threat if taking to this surface but odds will plummet today. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Watsdachances (IRE)

She's a Grade 3 winner over this turf course and she shows up for a strong turf outfit, but she might need to achieve a new Beyer Speed Figure top to prove to be the one in this spot; certainly not going to count her out of it, but going to demand a good deal of value in this direction before backing.

Byrama (GB)

She's a Grade 1 winner over the synthetic surface at BHP and her turf form has been strong enough to suggest that she can be competitive in this event, but it is a mild concern to see that she's light on recent winning form; nevertheless, she commands her share of respect while going out for a top turf barn that has been going strong in graded stakes events the past couple of years.

Assateague

Stakes winning miss is trying to land her first graded stakes score, and if she can remember what she did over this turf course three starts back, she can prove to be a tough out on the front end; winner from latest won next out at GP on 12/15 going 7 1/2f over turf in a 100k stakes with a 93 Beyer.

Orion Moon (FR)

She's a very interesting option to consider in here as her first two starts in America where sharp winning performances, and her only poor performance in her first four starts in the States was followed by a long layoff; it looks like she's on top of her game after what she showed us in her latest outing over the GP turf, and going to look for her to give a strong account of herself in her return to Belmont Park.

Natalie Victoria

She's proven to be an incredible 12.5k claim for her current connections, and if this race has to be taken off the turf, she'll have to be considered a gate-to-finish threat in this spot; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Aqu on 3/31 going 1m vs. 75k OPC's with an 80 Beyer.

English Class

She's a neck shy of being a G3 winner over turf and her latest effort can be viewed as being one of the sharper performances of her career, but she did benefit from an ideal early pace scenario in that race; she might find herself benefiting from a comfortable trip once again today while sitting just off of the early speed of Assateague.

Waterway Run

She's a G3 winner racing overseas, and despite coming up a little bit short in her first two starts in America, she's really doone little wrong in those races; feel that she's eligible to be ready to show us her best stuff yet, and like to see a strong turf rider in Lezcano aboard once again.

Sunny Desert

Multiple stakes winner will have the look of a top contender if this race has to be moved to the main track and like to see that she's recorded a couple of wins from three starts over the main track here; winner from latest won next out at Aqu on 4/19 going 6f vs. G2 competition with a 99 Beyer.

Irish Mission

Not sure that she isn't using this race as a steppingstone to a marathon turf event the next time around, but this mare has shown the ability to dial up a sharp performance over turf on her best day, and it doesn't hurt to see her making her first start for a barn that knows how to get the most out of their turf starters.

Scampering

It's safe to say that this stakes placed miss is going to need the sharpest performance of her career to get the job done in this spot and her one start in the graded stakes ranks prior to this wasn't a positive experience; perhaps she's another in here who might be seeking more distance to work with the next time around. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Metaurus

Cuts back to sprint while dropping to the claiming ranks after posing little threat at a big price in the allowance ranks at Aqueduct; while this gelding does like the trip and has earned some minor awards, it's been quite a long time since he's won; have to look elsewhere for the winner.

Dixie Notion

Seven year old ships in to make his local debut while dropping in for a tag in his first start for an outfit that hasn't had any luck from limited starters this year; gelding owns some numbers that would certainly fit in here, but he doesn't offer much early interest and it's been a while since he's seen the winner's circle as well; he did work ok at his Parx base a few weeks back, but have to limit his use to underneath in exotics.

Hackleton

Five year old is offered back for less than this outfit paid for him out of his last across town; his most recent score did come sprinting and he earned a career best number in that inner track victory; there's not a whole bunch of lick in here so he figures to be able to sit within striking range of the front runners and maybe he fits better with these; spots them all weight, but is one to consider.

Make Your Move

Barn's second runner in here cuts back a bit while dropping in for a tag after getting up for a share in his Aqueduct finale; gelding hasn't won in nearly a year but he did take a good step forward on the figure scale in that last one and maybe that's a sign he's back in form.

Rush Now

Beaten last out chalk drops a bit in price for his second crack off this barn's claim; gelding has done his better running going long and now he'll try an even shorter sprint trip; acknowledge he owns the back numbers to take this one, but he's been going the wrong way of late, so prefer to try and beat him.

Mi Hijo

Gets a weight concession while switching to a double bug for his return to claimers; gelding crushed conditioned foes 2 back with a competitive number and he remains above the level of the barn's 2 back claim today; don't know that he'll get back to that effort here, but a wet track wouldn't hurt.

Italian Rules

Nine year old took all the money when shipped East to tackle cheaper claimers at Saratoga last summer but he didn't do much running and was taken by a barn that sent him to the bench for 9 months; he's been working regularly for the comebacker and he's aggressively placed above the price they paid for him first time back; he does own back numbers that would crush these so he has to be used but it's also fair to question whether he's anywhere near that runner now and if he deserves another shot.

Kingsford Drive

Gets a top pilot for his return from the freshening off a couple of inner track tries in which he failed to threaten the winner; he does have some early foot when right and should be able to sit close from the bell in this heat, but take away the triple digit front end score in the local mud last year and he looks to be only a mild threat at best.

Much Stronger

Colt earned some competitive numbers last year, but he's gone the wrong way of late and his inner track finale against allowance runners was particularly poor; maybe the drop to this level helps and he does draw a cozy outside slot, but he hasn't run very fast in his 3 spins over the local main track. - Steve Grabowski

Race 10

Swift Warrior

Multiple graded stakes winner has been a very consistent performer but feel that his success in this event is tied to needing a number of these show up with less than their best; perhaps a minor award is the ceiling.

Unbridled Ocean

He hasn't run a bad race as a member of the Pletcher barn and he's been better than ever in his recent starts; don't care to see him losing the services of Lezcano to Ghurair, but he has the look of a contender while sharing the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Tetradrachm.

Seal Cove

Multiple stakes winner has obviously had some setbacks along the way, but viewing it as a positive that he's being returned to action on relatively normal rest for this, and when he's feeling good, he packs a serious stretch punch; can't count him out of it.

Summer Front

There are some imports in here to worry about, but feel that if this multiple graded stakes winner shows up with his best effort, he can prove to be very tough to tackle; he obviously didn't show up with his best effort vs. Lochte last time, and going to look for him to be ready for much better while returning to Belmont for this.

Ghurair

He's G2 tested racing overseas and he has to be considered a very interesting import while showing up for the barn of Chad Brown and getting Lasix for the first time; Shadwell-owned colt hasn't run a bad race to date and Lezcano gets more than his share of live calls from this barn; must consider.

Speaking of Which (IRE)

He's one of three in here to decipher for the Clement barn, and even though it's tough to give him the nod over Summer Front, it isn't like this 5-year-old hasn't shown the ability to produce a sharp performance on his best day; a little concerned that he hasn't been at his best in two starts over this turf course, but he's a G3 winner on both sides of the pond, and he beat today's rival Tetradrachm just two starts ago.

Tetradrachm

Multiple graded stakes placed veteran is one of two lined up in here for the Mott barn that has been in good form lately and you have to go back a number of starts to find the last time he produced a sub par performance; having a tough time giving him the nod for the top spot, although it isn't out of the question, but he's clearly worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Five Iron

He brings some early speed with him and he's a G3 winner over the Saratoga turf, but he's going to need to bounce back from a performance that was well below par for him in a big way if he's to threaten the top contenders in this tougher than average G3 event.

Manighar (FR)

He's a multiple G1 winner racing overseas, and have to respect the fact that he's earned more than $3 million in his career, but he's really tough to get a feel for while making his first start in America as an 8-year-old, and he was winless from 10 starts in 2013.

Sky Blazer

Tough veteran shows up and gives it everything he has just about every time he steps on the track, and he appears to be going about as well as ever at the moment, but just looking at this as being a tough spot for him to get back in against graded stakes competition. - Brian Pochman

Race 11

Princess Mara

Exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when loving her return to turf winning on the lead; heads back to the main track for this owning a solid-BEL dirt mark; her last dirt try 2 back was in thd mud chasing the winner who repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 76 Beyer.

Lady Gracenote

Princess Mara beat her in last as she finished last in a key race; the winner and 5th-place finisher Beyered 81-76 in next-out AQU-optional-claiming and starter alw. wins; field-best Beyer was posted on AQU Inner Dirt at longer; ranked a notch below these.

Gloria Victoria

Figures to be a major player if you can dismiss latest in the mud a career-low Beyer and just not like her after posting 5 straight in-the-money finishes; expect to see her back to best now on fast footing; debut-runner-up finish on BEL dirt suggests she likes this track a lot; the one to beat.

Once a Week

24%-winning fresh trainer off the 78-day layoff; exits back-to-back Beyer Tops when flying from off the pace hoping Princess Mara and Saturday Bliss duel each other into defeat to set up her late kick; new rider means her lowest-weight assignment ever; contender..

Saturday Bliss

Willing to forgive the slow-gate break for her synthetic-surface start; she flew out of the gate in 1st pair and expecting to see that speedy filly today for this; beat the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 67 in a next-out AQU-OPC win.

Spinit to Winit

Has not raced past 6.5F yet; Grade 3 sire at 1 Mile on dirt went 1-for-7 in dirt routes; dam won her only dirt oute (48K); projects to sit just off the speed then hopes that stamina kicks in for deep stetch; the January winner repeated in a starter alw. with a 74 Beyer.

Familyofroses

2-for-2 BEL horse for the course has been very consistent; she just hasn't run a bad race since August 13 but in recent races has been handled by similar rivals. freshened up for this and gets the homefield edge seeming ripe to turn the tables; the pick. - Art Gropper

Race 12

Little Miss Brown

Filly is starting to figure it out; she has a bit more speed than she just flashed and should have her sea legs under her by now; there are several winners in the family and 4 tried grass to no avail; wraps added last time, try to get a good look at her on the track.

Truly Mizzed

The freshening seemed to have done her a world of good; note show horse was 5 clear in last; contention goes deep.

Pink Poppy

Soph could have sulked after poor start but she put her head down and tried; dam lost only start; several multiple race winners in the tree, one cashed once on grass; top kin Liquidity was G1 placed, earned $240K; must respect everything from this barn.

Tarnished

Medaglia d'Oro has won with about 10% of his debuters in a 416-horse sample, about 11% with first-time turfers in a 292-starter grid; sire was 2nd in only juvenile out beaten just over 2 at TP with a 81 Beyer, went on to earn over $5.7 million, never turfed; dam was unraced; 3 of 4 siblings won; all won on grass in the minor leagues; note gap in published moves till 3/29.

Call Her Sunny

Empire Maker about 11% with debuters in a 388-runner survey, about 10% with first-time turfers in a 269-starter grid; sire took debut at 2, won Belmont on way to near $2 million wallet, never turfed; Grade 3 winning 4 for 17 dam earned over $220K, was turf only; this is her first to roll; drills are ideally spaced.

Knacque

Since she is fresh, would expect her to be sent along again; backers can point to the fact that sibling Whirling Thunder won 4 times on grass, earned nearly $170K; must pick it up a bit.

Tiz a Dynaformer

Expect better effort after she was forced to steady; 4 for 23 dam earned over $200K, lost twice on grass; lone half bro to race cashed once sprinting on dirt; got a feeling we have not seen her A game.

Wickedness

Took overland route, could be more on the muscle on the stretch out; G1 placed 3 for 17 dam banked over $150K, won twice on grass; several multiple race winners in the family including triple turf winner and over $100K earner Ayla Bella; has some things to work out.

Candy Portena

Off the rail but she has had her chances; she was losing ground in the lone grass route; would thing long and hard before taking too short a number.

Mobilize

Toss the dirt races and the form brightens; could see her getting a nice stalk and kick trip; stablemate can push the pace too; another that can't be discounted.

Orient Harbor

Like the way she was getting involved late; G3 winning dam earned nearly $275K, won 6 times on grass; this is her first to roll; look for more polished rider to be aggressive from the sound of the bell.

Hope Rules

Bothered early and she recovered too late; at least there is turf success in the tree and top kin Funny Moon banked nearly $550K; blinks today, not sure they are the cure all.

Small World

Never kicked in educational debut; the race came back live as the place horse won in this league, 12th finisher took a maiden $50K claimer and the winner repeated in a $75K optional; dam was unraced; 2 of 3 siblings won; both tried grass to no avail; needs a rebound run.

Forensic

Over 3 clear and she obviously has talent; drills last month were steady; 4th and 8th finishers in last won at this level next out; G3 winning 9 for 22 dam earned over $550K; this is her first to roll; major player if race comes off the grass. - Brian Mulligan