Belmont: Closer Looks for May 29, 2014

Race 1

Paris Sunshine

The selection, despite the numerical rise in class, based on a very deceptive recent effort at the shore; in that race, she was bumped around the start, took the clubhouse turn wide, and was used up chasing the pacesetter while well off the rail (the winner rallied up the fence in the final yards); fits nicely with this soft group.

Eva Lil

Never earned an exacta finish in all this time; she has not shown much in the way of early speed and her best performance was over the tundra of the Big A inner dirt; blank slate at Belmont; cannot recommend under any conditions.

Ballerena Bliss

Beat only one opponent in her local debut but did show a bit more prompting speed withe blinker addition; gets weight from the field and faced much better in her sole attempt at the mile (when losing all chance at the break); may be in the first flight this afternoon and should offer fair market value.

Pari Nath

Has a modicum of speed in her favor but little in the way of endurance; one of her best Beyers was achieved at the mile but over a muddy surface; can last for a share if catching that type of footing at post time; otherwise, remains a thin take.

Unafraid

The workout on the morning of 5/6 certainly showed some life and she did not have a clean trip in her last attempt at the mile; draws favorable middle slot here and can be more of a stalking presence than in the last pair; improvement expected and betting value should be there.

Fancy 'n Flight

Steady check earner looks trifecta bound again as she raced evenly in her last try when earning a personal best; will likely be reserved for one middle move and the trainer has been on fire at the meet; much to like except for the fact that the odds will be less appealing today.

Kevin's Kool Kat

Camera shy lady will be one of the favorites based on her latest placing; last try at today's distance was around 2 turns and she may simply prefer the one-turn setting; clear outside slot also helps her cause but she must avoid getting into a duel with the rail entrant; still warrants exacta consideration. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Reach for Yield

His first two starts have only been so-so performances at best but he shows up for a top turf barn and now it's time to call upon Castellano; he's a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Drewman (2-2, 72k over turf) and multiple graded stakes placed Lucky Pulpit (3-22, 209k, including 2 of 14 turf starts for 123k); 3rd finisher from latest won next out at GP on 3/30 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 75k MCL's with a 71 Beyer; Castellano has won with 14 of 48 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Permanent Campaign

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; the move to turf is a question but he figures to be forwardly placed through the opening stages.

Yes I'm True

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 16 starts for 83k, including 2 of 13 turf starts for 78k; he clearly took a step in the right direction at second asking and his most recent workout looks sharp.

In Speight Ofitall

This gelding has some quality to his pedigree and his best effort is fast enough to get him into the mix against these; however, this is a runner seeeking his first career win in start number 16; perhaps he's best used underneath in the exotics.

Perfect American

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his turf starters and dam was winless from eight starts, including one turf start; he owns the type of early speed that can play a role in the way that this race shapes up.

Nine Forty

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from one start overseas; this colt is a 1/2 to G3 stakes placed overseas, Londonnetdotcom (2-18, 82k over turf); this is an outfit that can have one ready to go long over turf at first asking.

Seldom Seen Slim

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a stakes winning dam who won 5 of 19 starts for 249k, including 2 of 12 turf starts for 121k; not wild about Bernardini as a turf sire, but it's Jacobson, and Ortiz has won with 11 of 38 (29%) mounts for this outfit in 2014.

Hooping

His two most recent turf attempts have been strong enough to suggest that he can be a player in this spot, and in a race that looks like it might have a swift early pace, this late running type figures to sit it out through the opening stages and make one late run.

Giant Fox

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and multiple stakes placed dam won 3 of 11 starts for 102k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to stakes winner Gangbuster (6-36, 356k, including 2 of 19 turf starts for 122k); winner from latest won next out at Bel on 5/7 going 1m vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 94 Beyer, and third finisher won next out at Aqu on 4/26 going 1 1/8m vs. MSW rivals with an 82 Beyer.

Captain Keon

Maybe he hasn't been the most consistent performer, but he has a few solid starts over turf on his card to consider, and his best race looks pretty good when compared to what his rivals in here have shown to be capable of. - Brian Pochman

Race 3

Mr Palmer

Tries one turn today after finding 10 panels too far for his liking in stakes company at the beginning of the month; barn's go to pilot gets aboard for this colt's third start back from the freshening and from this inside draw maybe he's able to stay close to the top in field that doesn't contain much early lick; his efforts earlier in the year suggest he may prove to be the one to down in this spot.

Summer Sunset

Five year old understandably came up a little short late in his first start off nearly a year on the shelf; he's had a full month off since to get ready for this, but the barn has been on a poor run second time back; there isn't a lot of speed in this heat and he's tracked quick clips in his last few one turn routes so maybe he's able to get involved in the pace here; nice to see Rosario take interest.

Don Dulce

Just missed getting up at a slightly shorter trip over a wet track a few weeks back; while the career best Beyer he earned in that one is certainly impressive, the near miss on its own would be as well if it weren't the fifth such defeat he's suffered in his last 8 trips to the gate; certainly capable of getting in the mix for a share, but have to side with others on the win end.

Balance of Power

Stretches back out after taking a step back in the sprint try across town last month and finishing last of 5 rivals; gelding does go for an outfit that hits at a nice clip with its runners tackling added ground and there's not much speed in here so maybe his is sharpened enough to try and take it to them early today; he knows how to win, but from a figure standpoint he's going to need to step things up a bit to prove a serious threat late.

Dawly

Gelding didn't have enough to offer late on the turn back and drop in company last month but he was still able to get up for second money and he'll get an extra half panel to negotiate in his local return; hard trier has settled for a lot of minor awards, but he does know how to win; concern is the lack of pace in front of him in this spot, but he does figure to be coming hard late; contender. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Flat Leaver

Gelding is kin to a handful of winners including 6 who have banked 6 figures, led by G2 SW and 299K earner Lovely Lil, but his sibs are a combined 0 for 3 on the green; he'll get blinkers off weak dirt debut, but his sire gets only about 4% first surface winners from his offspring; he worked sharply on the main track a couple of weeks back for this and the barn boasts some recent luck with second out runners.

Rontos New York

Took money first out but didn't do much running against those claimers and now he'll switch surfaces on the rise to this level; sire hits with just 4% of his initial turf starters but the dam won 3 times on the footing; he's kin to 3 multiple winners, but none of his sibs has tried the lawn.

Space Hero

Gray offered little in his 4 starts and now he'll return from 5 months on the shelf; neither of his turf spins was much and though he worked better last week it's tough to imagine him jumping up with an effort that makes him competitive in here; have to pass on this longshot.

Old Friend

Lost his best shot at the break first out against open MSWs at Keeneland and now he'll go for a new outfit in his turf debut; barn does nice work with turf sprinters and this guy's sire gets 10% winners from his first time surface runners; SP dam never tried the green but she did drop a first time surface winner so maybe this guy has more to offer today.

Bajan Summer

Tired from chasing the pace in his debut against a subsequent repeater and how he'll return to try the green; sire gets 11% winners from his first time surface runners and the dam dropped a turf winner in the states; barn does a fine job moving them to the green so with a top local pilot getting aboard a much improved effort is likely on tap.

Shinnecock Bay

Ran ok despite early trouble when trying the lawn for the first time here earlier in the month; gray returned to work well in the interim and he is kin to 5 main track winners so he does have a right to improve; barn hasn't had a great start to the stand, but they do name a top pilot today.

Saltine Warrior

Drew outside for his first start of the year at this trip and level and he ran big despite trouble for second money; gelding has had his share of chances, but he owns the best numbers over the local sod in this field and he has the tactical foot to secure a good spot from the bell; one to beat.

Winnitude

His last at this trip and level was better than any of his previous main track tries so maybe he likes the lawn and will move forward second time over the stuff; his 2 sibs to try the footing were a combined 0 for 6 on it and this barn doesn't win a lot of races; just watching him here.

Tom's Vision

Beat one runner home in his 3 races on dirt and now he'll try the lawn; his sire is 1 for 12 with his first time turfers and he's the first foal to race out of a dam who never tried the green; tough to make much of a case for this big price.

Bob and Jim

Steps back up to face MSWs while returning to the sod over which he earned a nice number late last summer; he hasn't run particularly fast of late, however, and he has had more than his share of chances; prefer to limit his use to underneath in exotics.

My Terms

Colt didn't show much in his 3 starts and now he'll hit the green by a sire who is 3 for 69 with his new surface runners; dam was winless from 14 main track starts prior to dropping a handful of winners including one who scored twice on the lawn; off what he's shown he has a lot to prove.

Junger

Hood comes off for his first start of the year and a top pilot will get aboard for a barn that has been on a poor run with returnees; colt does have solid early foot and he showed he could handle this course last year as a juvenile; can't be overlooked.

Full Pads

AE showed little in his debut run on the Aqueduct main track in the fall and has been idle since; his sire gets 8% winners from his first surface runners and the winless dam was 0 for 2 on the green prior to dropping 3 winners as well as one foal who finished off the board in both turf spins.

King Gettigan

MTO has run well in each of his 2 spins since claimed by this outfit and his try with open claimers here a couple of weeks back was pretty solid; colt is bred to handle the wet going he'll likely get if this gets moved to the main track and in his current form should prove tough in the lane; contender if the rains come. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Saichi Sweepin

Main track only was claimed by Levine out of her latest and the past five years he has a 22 percent strike rate running them back the first time; blinkers come off and that makes sense since she wasn't wearing them in all of her 8 wins; horse that won her latest won a $30K optional race for NY-breds in her next start; this gal won her only start over this surface; looks like a serious player if she gets to run.

Finders Key

It has been over a year since she won and lately she has been having a hard time keeping up with conditional claimers; first time on the lawn and she's by Discreet Cat who is 11/88 with first time turfers and 43/297 overall; dam went 1/2 on the main track but never ran on grass and this is her only foal to race; Albertrani rarely claims a horse and the last one he haltered moved up from $25K to finish third in a NY-bred stakes; prefer others,

Magma (GB)

The fact that she hasn't been able to finish in the top 3 in 7 tries on the lawn is an obvious concern and she is coming off four-straight races where she lost by double digits; her latest win came going short so she should appreciate the cut back to a sprint; nonetheless, she will need to improve substantially to make an impact here; passing.

Talmadge Hill

5-year-old has been away since she went unplaced in a first-level allowance race last Aug. and the past five years Brown has a respectable 16 percent strike rate with horses coming back in 180 days or more; she's been working well enough and she could be the one they have to catch if she leaves there running; consider for the exotics.

Chelsea Road

She's never performed very well over Poly so we're willing to toss her last two at Keeneland and focus on her sharp form at the Fairgrounds where she earned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure for her win in a first-level allowance race on the main track March 7; she has a good record on the lawn and she ran well when she finished third in a key race the only time she ran over this course; big shot.

Persnickity

All but one of her wins came sprinting so she should appreciate the cut back to a sprint and the easier company after getting beat as the chalk for $40K in her latest; horse that beat her two back in a $25K starter race came back to win a $40K optional race for state-breds with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure; Rosario has won with half his mounts for Barbara here since 2013;; contender.

Tidal Slam

7-year-old has a decent record on the turf here but her last win came in 2011 in a $25K claiming race for n/w/3; blinkers come off but it is hard to imagine the equipment change will move her up enough after she finished last for half the price in her latest on the inner track across town hard to see it.

Sunrise Kitty

Lightly-raced 4-year-old didn't fire in her two starts at Gulfstream but she did get hung out pretty wide in her latest and she is dropping to a new low here; Castellano keeps the faith and if she can regain the form she had last year she could be a handful; Servis is having a strong meet and he has solid stats with horses coming back between 61-180 days; the pick. - Randy Goulding

Race 7

Much Stronger

He's finished first or second in 10 of 19 career starts and he appears to be taking a well meant drop in class for his first start back from a layoff; he's run well against straight claiming competition in the past, and the third-place finisher from his latest start won next out at Aqu on 3/28 going 7f vs. 50k claimers with an 88 Beyer.

Sam Sparkle

Stakes winner appears to be heading in the wrong direction entering this race and he hasn't been shy about settling for minor awards in his career; maybe the drop in class will help him, but going to lean toward others for the top spot.

Metaurus

Like the idea of getting him back over dirt but this appears to be a tough assignment for him and he's winless in his last 23 starts going back through 2013; he looks like more of an outsider.

Take Down Two

17-time winner has seen faster days and he's going to need to step it up over what he's been doing lately in order to contend; he was claimed for 25k from his latest start, and this has to be considered a tough step up in class for him.

Hackleton

Nicely bred 5-year-old is out of a G1 winning dam and he's shown the ability to dial up a performance that is strong enough to make him a legitimate threat for the top spot; he commands his share of respect while going out for a barn and rider that team up with success.

Don Tito

Multiple graded stakes placed veteran might not have cared for the sloppy racing surface in his latest start, and if he's ready to bounce back with an effort that is equal to what he did two and three back, he can prove to be tough to tackle; like to see that Arroyo has been aboard for a couple of his sharper starts.

Coolusive

He boasts the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here and he's only a race removed from equaling a career best 91 Beyer; he benefits from the services of Rosario this time around, but it might be worth noting the presence of C.V. aboard another.

Head Heart Hoof

Grade 3 winner is one of two signed on in here for the Jacobson barn and he brings some legitimate early speed with him; runner up from latest won next out at Aqu on 3/8 going 6f vs. 30k OPC's with an 84 Beyer; Ortiz has won with 11 of 38 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2014. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

Alpaca Fina

Lone 3-year-old in the field broke a step slow when she was favored in a $30K optional race at Monmouth in her latest and should move forward in her second start back for Jacobson who has solid stats in the category; horse that beat her in her two previous races has only lost once and that came in her debut; consider for the exotics.

Ode to Sami

She's been off since she finished a distant sixth in a $25K optional race at Laurel and that was her second start back following a more than five-month layoff; she has been working like she's ready for a big effort coming off the bench and Contessa can have them ready to roll coming off this kind of layoff; he also won 3 races with her in 2012 so he knows her well; others look more attractive, however.

Sky Skier

Only once has she been out of the top three and the horse that finished third won her next start at this level here with an 81 Beyer Speed Figure; this gal just missed at this level in her latest and she could move forward in her second start back following a short layoff; she has speed but is versatile and if she can avoid getting into a duel with Laguna Girl she should be right there.

Laguna Girl

Another one that is usually in the mix with a 2-4-2 record from 10 starts; that was a nice win two back in a restricted stakes and the horse she beat won two of her next three including the Grade 3 Vagrancy here May 17; she didn't fire in her latest but she may have been unsettled after breaking through the gate and having to be reloaded; toss the race and she looks like a major player.

Nuffsaid Nuffsaid

5-year-old has won 4 of her last 7 and lost by a nose and a head in two of her losses; she wont' mind the move back to a sprint and the past five years her trainer has a 28 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 61-180 days; she could get the perfect trip if Laguna Girl and Nuffsaid Nuttsaid hook up early; the pick.

How

Cuts back to a sprint following a relatively easy win over a weak field in a first-level allowance race across town Mar 9 and it would have been nice to see her come back a little sooner; Rodriguez can have them ready to roll and this gal won her second start sprinting so she won't mind the cut back in distance; $250K yearling is a half to four winners the best being stakes place Capricious who has earned $87K; another possibility in a wide-open event. - Randy Goulding