Belmont: Closer Looks for May 21, 2014

Race 1

Rockaway

Debuts for Rodriguez who the past five years has a 14 percent strike rate with first time starters; sire won his debut but never raced again and is 7 percent with first timers; dam didn't run and this is her first foal; live barn but the rail can be tricky for horses making their first start so we're going to pass.

Offlee Catty

Debut at Aqueduct was solid with Oriz aboard but after breaking sharply in her second start with a less-experienced apprentice she was intimidated and then couldn't keep up to Mary's in Utopia; all five of her siblings are winners including Mr Bourbon who won 10 races and earned $246K; expecting an improved effort with Ortiz back on board.

Talk to Me

She's going to appreciate the easier company after trying to keep up with Henry's Gal who won three of her next four including the $100K NY Stallion April 27; she's been off since Dec. 12 and the past five years Gorham has a 6 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 61-180 days; blinkers on and it is encouraging to see Castellano accept the call; some things to like.

Mary's in Utopia

She improved quite a bit when she returned this spring and it didn't hurt that she dropped into more realistic spots; she didn't break as sharp as Offlee Catty last time and after being gunned to the lead it wasn't surprising she came up empty late; with a better break she figures to hang around long enough to pick up a slice.

Baby B

Her debut on the main track was okay and it was a key race with the second and sixth horse coming back to win state-bred MSW races; she came back with two solid races on the lawn and will appreciate the easier company running for a tag the first time; if she can handle the quick turn around she could be a handful; the past five years Contessa has a 14 percent strike rate with horses coming back in a week or less; the pick.

Official

Goes from one good trainer to another with the move to Jacobson and this appears to be a considerably easier group than she faced here Feb. 24; three came back to win, including the winner, and the second horse won her next two; she won't mind the move back to a sprint after trying two turns at Laurel and she may have tipped her hand when she fired a bullet going three furlongs across town May 7; big shot.-Randy Goulding

Race 2

Charitable

The trainer has been superb with fresh runners and this one gets the Private Relations rematch from his debut loss as he stretches out after tiring; in 9 Widener Turf races at 1 Mile at BEL through May 18 not one winner went gate-to-wire and he has a chance to make the front here; should impove 2nd-time out which is only an 11%-win angle for the barn; seems the one to catch.

Perfect Stormy

Style change in last was huge rallying from last in most recent while exiting a field-best Beyer speed figure; closers have been best on Widener grass so a patient ride then rally is the key; exits his 1st start on firm footing and 2nd race without blinkers; the one to beat.

Einstein Affair

Sire is 1-for-7 with 1st-turf starters; 0-for-2 dam did not race on grass; 2 foals to race on North Ameican turf are 0-for-5 combined; outsider after defating 2 runners combined in 4 losses; flashed gate speed earlier in career; woid be a shocker.

Upper East Side

Reunites with Castellano who has been the rider in the country this year; bet to favortism in latest where he did everything right but win the photo; dirt was not his thing in the debut while facing the runner-up who graduated at BEL next out in MSW company with a 95 Beyer; the pick.

Brilliant Command

The runner-up, 5th and 9th-place finishers from last Beyered 86-82-72 in next-out BELCD-IND-MSW wins; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL alw. with an 87 Beyer; sizzing trainer this meet brings one off the long layoff just an 11%-win angle; late-running stye fits the Widener turf well but will be taking a wait and see approach.

Knight of Valor

The winner from last repeated in a GP-optional claimer with a 93 Beyer; he defeated the 5th-place finisher who graduated in a BEL-40K-maiden claimer next out with a 75 speed figure; all 6 Clement winners this meet are with 30 days or more between races and this one fits the bill; contender.

Private Relations

The trainer won with a fresh runner last week at BEL; in both starts he had gate issues so perhaps the time off will help him with his breaking ability; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 84 in a next-out GP-MSW win; last-out GP winners have won 25 races at the current BEL meet.

Bolt From the Blue

Sire is 72-for-535 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 2-0-1-0 grass dam who produced 1 turf winner from 2 other foals to race on grass (1-for-12 Electric Chant 96K turf); stretching out from sprints projects as part of the pace on a turf course that has been favoring closers.

Dr. Abramson

Sire is 48-for-522 with 1st-turf starters; 1-for-3 dam (14K) did not race on grass; she produced 1 turf winner from 2 other foals to race on grass (1-for-12 Silver Hunter 63K); trainer is 6% winners 1st turf and 6% winners synthetic to turf; last-out KEE runners had a huge week at BEL last week.-Art Gropper

Race 4

Invading Humor

Turns back to sprint in her first start back from 7 months on the shelf with a steady tab showing for a barn that does solid work with this type; she did run ok at the trip here last year and she does like the green, but she may need one before we see her best; maybe for a minor share.

Sweet Maxine

Speedy gray makes her second start of the year after tiring from her pace efforts against open company runners at Atlantic City a few weeks back; while she does bring lick to the table and will switch back to a hot pilot who was aboard for her last score, she's now been off the board in each of her surface spins and the big gal in here likes to mix it up early as well; don't think she'll be able to kick away from that foe and hold off the latecomers today.

Marcy

She worked well earlier in the month for the turn back to sprint after tiring in the turf route last time; mare goes for a barn that's winless both on the year and with its last 19 runners going second back from the break; looms another long price in this spot.

Ornellia

She's another making her first start of the year in this spot while returning to a course over which she ran quite well until her last couple of starts prior to the time off; mare broke her maiden at the local trip a couple of summers back and maybe the break helped her get re-focused, but she'll have to prove to us that she still wants to run; prefer to just watch her here.

White Sangria

Five year old ships back to the scene of her maiden score fresh with the 2 best last numbers of the bunch; she was facing open company down in Florida and now she'll return to the statebred ranks with a top pilot getting aboard; her speed should have her prominent from the bell and though she'll take a big hit at the windows, if she returns with anything close to what she did at Gulfstream she's going to be very tough to down.

Jitney

Loses Castellano while making her second start back from the break in this spot; mare has yet to hit the board in 5 local sod spins but she does own some surface sprint numbers from last year that would put her in the picture in this spot; if the pace heats up, she could rally for a share of this at a price.

Uncle Southern

Returns from 4 months on the shelf to try a surface on which she's earned both of her career scores; filly held on to beat cheaper in her first start over the local course late last summer but she draws outside the other pace players in here and that won't make things easy for her today.

A Prettydixie

Turns back to sprint off a weak route spin in her return to the lawn last month; filly hasn't run particularly well at one turn on the green in the past and this trip may be too short for her liking; have to side with others for the money spots in this one.

Neck of the Moon

Absentee has hit the board in each of her 5 career tries, all of which have come sprinting on the green; circuit's top pilot will get back aboard for an outfit that excels with its returnees and they have also had a pretty hot beginning to the local season; her running style affords her a solid trip and she has proven capable of firing fresh; main danger.

Desert Bliss

Outside drawn mare should be tighter with her first start of the year behind her and now she'll drop back in to face statebreds; she's a late runner who owns some competitive numbers and she should get a pretty solid clip to run at, but his trip may be a little short of her best and her career slate makes it clear she has little issue with settling for minor shares.

Run a Dubb Dubb

MTO ran well to get second money at this trip and level in her first crack off this outfit's claim; she won twice at the level over the inner this winter and will be catching a turf meant bunch if the rains come; contender if she gets to go.-Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Rapid Repair

Debut is a co-field-best Beyer speed figure for a trainer who is not known to win with 1sters and typically the barn's runners improve with each start; all freshened up both of the barn's BEL winners had at least 30 days between starts he is here with 108 days idle; saves ground then makes one run; the one to beat.

Simply Spectacular

Only 4-year-old gives 7 pounds to each rival; the winner and runner-up finisher from last Beyered 79-70 in next-out KEE-allowance and TAM-MSW wins; 1 last-out TAM winner has scored at the current BEL meet; her only dirt start 3-back was a 14-length loss to the winner who repeated in a CRC-optional claimer with a 73 speed figure.

Lusaka

Her 2nd start Beyer regression is not enticing but you get a 32%-winning jockey trainer combo for a barn known to win with fresh runners; she would have to improve her game considerably to knock these off; middle moved in latest so perhaps today she leaves running as a pace presence with Sea Trial.

Sea Trial

Blinkers on and exiting sprints projects as the one to catch; has not raced past 7F yet; sire earned 1.2M in dirt routes with 2-Grade 1 wins including the Florida Derby; 4-time G1-SW dam won 6-of-12 dirt routes (1.9M); she produced 1 winner from 2 other foals to race (1-for-5 dirt router Colors Flying 46K).

Palestrina

Exits a co-field-best Beyer speed figure when nosed with a troubled trip; was knocking on the door pre-rest and comes back for a trainer who fires very best with freshened-up starters like her; projects to work out an ideal trip stalking Sea Trial-Lusaka then getting 1st run on the closers; the pick.

Small World

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire is a BEL Stakes winner; is out of an unraced dam who produced 2-dirt route winners including 114K-router-earning-full sibling Sister State (2-for-7) and 2-for-2 dirt router Factual (23K); the winner, runner-up and 11th-place finishers from last Beyered 78-70-53 in next-out AQU-optional claiming-AQU-MSW and KEE-50K-maiden-claiming wins.-Art Gropper

Race 6

Away Game

He's by Lemon Drop Kid who is a decent turf sire - 14 percent overall - plus he won the Belmont so he could run all day; dam was strictly a sprinter; one of two sibs won a Grade 2 on turf going a flat mile and also a Grade 3 on dirt at a mile and 40 yards; horse that beat him two back romped with a 94 Beyer in his next start; not out of the question.

Papy

It looks like the farther the better and that is half the battle going this distance; the race he won at Gulfstream was a key one but both horses that won their next races had to run for a tag to win; the horse that beat him in his latest was winning his fourth straight, though, and the past five years Clement has a 20 percent strike rate in turf routes; contender.

Legendary (GB)

He ran a huge race going 12 furlongs in his first start in North America at Keeneland and his two wins at minor tracks in Great Britain were at a mile and 1 1/6 miles so he should be fine going 1 1/4 miles; he owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and there is a possibility he'll bounce in his second start here; on the other hand he was pretty rank during the early stages of the race so he could be a lot more settled and take a big step forward; the pick.

Nowhere to Run

That was actually a pretty good field he upset at Gulfstream in Dec. with three coming back to win and the horse that finished second won the Grade 3 Palm Beach two starts later; hard to love him off his two races with winners, though; Dilger has solid stats with turf route horses but this looks like a pretty tough spot for this guy; passing.

Media Kid

Notched his first win on the lawn in his latest and the horse he beat came back to win a $20K starter race with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure across town; he's by Lemon Drop Kid plus he's a half-brother to $2.9 million Go Between who was a Grade 3 winner on turf and also won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic going 1 1/4 miles on Polytrack; playable.

Wings of Fortune

4-year-old won his second start at the Fairgrounds but he's been stuck at this level since; it's not like he hasn't been trying, though, and the horse he finished second to at Gulfstream Jan. 5 recently won the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland; goes for a new trainer who since 2013 has a 19 percent strike rate with new shooters; 7 seconds in 8 tries on turf so at the least he should be part of any exotics ticket.

Spartiatis

He's had just a single third in four tries on the green stuff so he's going to have to improve to make an impact here; lone came going six furlongs and the 229 Tomlinson for the distance isn't very encouraging; he could be the one they have to catch but he's probably going to have a hard time keeping up when it matters; prefer others.-Randy Goulding

Race 7

See Me Sometime

Drops and draws the fence for the turn back after failing to finish from the big early pace display she put on in the slop; she's probably quick enough to again have a say on the front end but there is other speed in here and her gate to wire maiden score 2 back was slow compared to what some of these can run; have to side with others.

Another Incident

Fresh filly catches an older foe for the first time in this spot while making her first local start after being given some time off following the rough winter in Florida; she broke her maiden in a long one turn event over a wet track and this barn is profitable first time back, but this gal will need to improve off those last 2 starts to step here; minor award looks to be her ceiling.

Accomplish First

Field's lone 4 year old tries open company in her first start with winners after wiring fellow statebreds on the drop to claimers; nice to see her top pilot stick with her in her first try since the fall and this outfit does boast some recent luck with returnees; field's highest last out Beyer earner looms a big threat first time back.

See the Music

Tries winners for the first time in this spot after being given a little extra time off the narrow maiden victory across town; she does have early foot and figure to mix it up from the bell on the slight stretchout but her pilot ends up elsewhere today; she's got a tough task ahead of her on the class rise but the barn has been right there with all of its local runners so far this season.

Rumble Doll

Should have some bottom from the recent turf route while turning back to sprint in this spot; filly ran well to break her maiden sprinting from off the pace across town in her first off the barn's claim 2 starts back and though she'll tackle open company today, maybe this longer one turn trip is what she wants; consider.

Star Magnolia

Fresh speed returns after proving no match for the runaway winner in her first start with winners last time; filly was pretty good in the maiden breaker over the inner in her first start off this outfit's claim and they do a nice job with runners off this type of freshening; her speed should again make her prominent but don't know that she'll be able to go on late.

Da Wildcat Girl

Outside drawn filly makes her first local start after spending her career facing fields of her peers in Florida; she does offer some tracking foot and proved capable of firing off drills in her debut last fall; fresh face disappointed in her 2 starts since taken by this outfit, but she has been working regularly for the comebacker and the barn has been going well here; can't be overlooked.-Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Unbelievable Dream

Grade 3 winner has shown the ability to step up with a performance that is strong enough to make her a player in this spot, but she has to bounce back from a performance that was well below par for her; she was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in her latest outing and the winner from that race won next out at Pim on 5/17 going 1 1/16m over turf in a G3 with a 96 Beyer.

Maximova

Four of her first five starts have been strong performances, including three wins, and she shows up for a currently live barn that does strong work with turf starters; feel that she's eligible to have a very nice 4-year-old campaign, and this barn can have one ready to fire fresh.

Gathering

She's been hit or miss in her first four starts in America, with two of her outs being impressive winning performances, and her other two starts basically being no shows; she's G3 stakes placed racing overseas and has to be respected as a contender for the type of effort she's shown to be capable of on her best day.

Miss Mischief

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and minor stakes placed dam won 2 of 11 starts for 47k, including 0-for-4 over turf; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Aqu on 3/31 going 1m vs. 75k OPC's with an 80 Beyer; stakes winning miss clearly has ability but this isn't a soft spot for her first turf start.

Mariel N Kathy

She's a stakes winner over this turf course and all three of her wins have been earned racing over the Belmont Park turf course; she needs a top try to be competitive in this spot, but she looks well meant with Castellano getting the call, and this barn has put some live horses on the track at this meeting.

Scampering

Stakes placed mare goes out for a barn that has been getting the job done with turf starters and this mare appears to be doing about as well as ever entering this race; she might fall into an ideal spot early on behind the early speed of Miss Mischief and Mariel N Kathy.

Natalie Victoria

MTO exits the same race as today's rival Miss Mischief and have to respect the form that this mare has displayed since being claimed by her current connections for 12.5k; if she's ready to return to action with the same level of performance that she showed up with last time, she'll be tough to deny; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Aqu on 3/31 going 1m vs. 75k OPC's with an 80 Beyer

Filimbi

She's a stakes winner racing overseas and she was a sharp runner-up finisher in her first start in America in her most recent outing; she beat a couple of today's rivals in her latest start and the winner from that race won next out at Pim on 5/17 going 1 1/16m over turf in a G3 with a 96 Beyer; must respect.

Crazy About Me

This wouldn't be a bad spot for this speedy miss to land in if this race has to be moved to the main track, but this stakes placed miss must regain some of the better form that she displayed in 2013 to have a chance at threatening Natalie Victoria; third-place finisher from latest won next out at GP on 2/6 going 5 1/2f in a 75k stakes with a 92 Beyer.-Brian Pochman

Race 9

Wake Up and Go

Marquis, Charles K. and Behrendt, John T. were named as owners in the last race; they were all on the line last time but the race came back okay; show horse in last took a $12.5K maiden claimer and 4th finisher took a maiden $16K claimer; a bit more energy in the drill on the 12th; backers can point to a couple of turf winners in the tree including 4-time grass winner Stormy Relations; contender, but not a cinch.

Macagone

Educated in the eventful debut; 1 for 11 dam did cash on grass; the sibling that won once did so on grass; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one; don't ignore.

Vagarious

Noble Causeway 4 for 61 with first-time turfers; Grade 1 placed sire won 3 of 18, banked over $350K, was out of the money twice on grass; dam won only start in a MSW on grass at Tampa at this distance with a 69 Beyer; all 3 siblings won; 2 won on grass, both banked at least $75K; no reason he won't move forward.

Eastcoast Lights

Off a career Beyer but it had to get better after being pulled up and dropping the rider; backers can hang their hat on fact kin One Note Samba earned over $125K on grass; tough to boost this runner.

Sugar Gold

Shades off, Garcia on; a couple of siblings tried grass to no avail; he only beat 3 horses combined when the shades were off early in his career; tough to pull trigger on this colt.

Manoffire

Lost all shot when steadied early on; 3 for 13 dam earned nearly $130K, won on grass twice; lone half sis lost 5 times; pretty snappy move on the 2nd, may like it here.

Point Roll

Out to make amends after the sluggish start; 4 for 17 dam earned over $100K, was grass only; 2 of 3 siblings won including East of Danzig, who was 4 for 24 on grass, banked over $170K; back to the original pilot; the one to deny.

Thurgood

Giant's Causeway about 11% with firsters in an 683-horse sample, about 9% with first-time turfers in a 572-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7 and took a Group 1 at 2 as a turf monster; stakes winning 4 for 15 dam handled grass, banked over $140K; lone half sis Infinite Hope won once in England at about a mile and 3 sixteenths on grass; has a shot by George.

Electric Currency

Exchange Rate about 11% with first-time turfers in a 290-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, took G2 Tom Fool, was 6 for 15, earned nearly $500K, won twice on grass; dam was 2 for 2, eaned nearly 6 grand an appearance; 3 of 4 siblings won; top kin Tazered won once on grass, banked over $180K; don't be shocked if he shows more speed since he is fresh.

Sole Train

Only a brief factor on a surface he may have disliked; homebred is back in 10 days; 6th new rider hired; has some things to iron out.

Chief Assignment

Hook and Ladder 1 for 98 with first-time turfers; sire took only start at 2, was sprint only and out of the money in line route try, banked nearly $400K, never turfed; 5 for 35 dam banked $175K, won 4 times on grass; this is her first to race; hard to endorse.

Jack's Lion

Connections also entered Thursday in a state-bred mile $40K maiden claimer; beaten over 15 the last time in this league; passing.

Rontos New York

Utopia 3 for 67 with first-time turfers; sire took 2 Group 1s in Japan at 2, banked nearly $5 million, was second in best turf result; 3 for 31 dam banked $80K, all the wins came on turf; 3 of 6 siblings won; none tried grass; could at least muddle the pace.

King Dix C

Beaten by repeater in the debut, he acted up at the gate last time, and last race came back live; the 4th finisher took a maiden $25K claimer, 7th finisher was 2nd a neck in a $16K claimer, place horse was 2nd a half in a maiden $12.5K fray and the winner repeated in a $12.5K N2L fray; SW 10 for 39 dam earned over $170K, lost only turf try; siblings 0 for 7 combined; he seems to be figuring it out.

All Over Me

Not thrilled with the several beats for a tag; half bro Leawood Teel won twice on grass; look for rider to send hard if this racer gets a chance to suit up.-Brian Mulligan