Belmont: Closer Looks for May 2, 2014

Race 1

Dan's Gold

Owns a serious pace edge here in a race lacking other gate speed; was claimed off a win exiting a co-best-last-race Beyer speed figure; will be giving show-finisher Shankopotamus 2 pounds for the rematch; would be more concerned about claiming off a high-win percentage trainer but Levine runners yield 22% winners 1st off the purchase since 2013; one concern is he beat 1 runner home in his only BEL dirt test but was facing stakes company; the pick.

Cocktails With Dan

When he was at his best stalked the speed nicely and hopes for that type of trip today; last-out GP runners are typically tough at BEL Park; defeated the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 94 in a next-out CRC-allowance win; is trying to rememeber that December Tampa romp.

Shankopotamus

Coupled with Take Down Two; in a race without much pace he could be the one playing catch me if you can but would have to avenge latest loss to Dan's Gold getting a positive 2-pound weight swing for this; his record on wet tracks is better than fast.

Haverhill

Going on 14 months since his field-best Beyer speed figure on GP dirt while freshened up nearly 100 days for this; would have thought maybe a trip down I-95 to Hallandale during the winter would have done him a world of good exiting his lowest Beyer since December, 2012; the show runner 2-back Beyered 97 in a next-out AQU-optional-claiming win he was a MTO entry Thursday in BEL Race 8; uncoupled vs. barnmate Coolusive breaking right next door

Coolusive

Exits a co-best-last-race Beyer speed figure when facing a much-quicker group; is uncoupled with barnmate Haverhill here; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 86 in a next-out AQU-16K-claiming win; late runner hasn't hit the board in 2 races at 6.5F during career but late-running style at 6F fits today's 6.5F distance; wish there was more pace signed on to help the late punch; the one to beat.

Take Down Two

Coupled with Shankopotamus; he has been knocking on the door for a win and like Coolusive seems to have the right style to like 6.5F but just hasn't shown that form in previous races at today's distance; 17 wins but most recent success occurred on wet tracks. - Brian Pochman

Race 3

Half Nelson

Gray has had a little extra time since wiring preliminary allowance runners from the fence to finally escape the condition and now he'll tackle much more accomplished runners; move to the fence means he'll look to be prominent early again but don't think he's going to be successful on that front; gets a top pilot but looks to have a tough task ahead of him.

Be Bullish

First part of the coupling also enters this one fresh after taking a similar event over the inner and beating Marriedtothemusic despite encountering some trouble; he'll get a new pilot here but the hard hitting 9 year old is still going strong and he usually finds a spot well within striking range of the top early which limits the work he needs to do in the lane; spots his main foe weight again but could prove the danger late; contender.

Bug Juice

Tracked and fired to beat cheaper in the slop while making his first start off the barn's claim and now he'll tackle a much better bunch in this cozy gathering; gelding was no threat to a couple of the bigger guys in here earlier in the inner track season and though he's getting back on track, still don't think he's good enough to seriously threaten for the top spot in this stakes heat; siding against the repeat.

Weekend Hideaway

Returns to statebred company for the first time since a sharp placing as the chalk here behind a winner who returned to take the New York Derby with a 99 Beyer at Finger Lakes; he took a step forward when moved to dirt at Gulfstream for his second start of the year and now he'll return to a track over which he's G2 SP and has never finished off the board; picks up some weight but could be set to take a big step forward with a clean trip today and figures to offer some value; don't overlook.

Marriedtothemusic

Quick 4 year old catches some battle tested foes while returning to the statebred ranks off the triple digit Beyer score over open company allowance runners over the main track across town; though there's other lick in here he appears fast enough to beat them to the top and this outfit does well second off the freshening; won't be easy and he likely again takes a ton of tote support, but they'll probably have to run him down to win.

Night Maneuver

Barn's other half has been away 3 months since they shelled out 50K for him in his narrow last out score over one of these; while he has done his recent damage on the front end, he's shown a rather impressive stalking gear that should benefit him nicely from this cozy outside draw; local .500 career hitter makes the entry extra tough. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Hooping

His two most recent races have been improved performances, and feel that he's shown enough in those starts to suggest that he can get himself into the mix against these; going to give the nod for the top spot to others, but a spot underneath in the exotics doesn't seem to be out of the question.

Eight Cents

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam was winless from four starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this gelding is a 1/2 to Academic Probation (1-4, 29k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 28k); he'll have to show more in his turf debut in order to get over on the top contenders in here.

Captain Keon

His best effort makes him a threat for the top spot against these and he might be ready to show up with one of his sharper starts after a decent run after a layoff in his latest outing; not going to argue with anyone for looking favorably in this direction.

Best Play

Half-brother to multiple G1 winner Marsh Side (7-31, $2.3 million, including 4 of 19 turf starts for $2 million) is tough to look past while dropping in with maiden claiming competition for the first time; if he shows up and runs his race, he'll make one of these have to jump up to beat him.

Golden Nugget

His complete lack of early speed is a concern, but this wouldn't be a bad spot for this gelding to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf, and this is a barn and rider that have teamed up with success over the years.

Gotham Rising

Sire is 0-for-11 with his turf starters and dam was winless from two starts, including one turf start; turf and distance are concerns, but this gelding has some early speed to employ.

Einstein Affair

Sire has won with 1 of 13 (8%) turf starters and dam was winless from two starts, and she didn't make a turf start; not wild about what she's shown in her first three starts and connections will hope for better with a move to turf.

Lightning Ron

She's been so-so at best through her first seven starts and she wasn't helped by drawing a tough outside post for her return to turf; she has flashed a touch of early speed and perhaps the additon of blinkers will sharpen her up a little bit.

Perfect American

Maybe the drop in class can help her along, but she's basically been outrun at every point of call in her first two starts after going to post at long odds, and she will need to show more if she's to see her number posted on top after this one is run.

Perfect Stormy

He has a turf leaning pedigree and he stepped up his game in his turf debut in his latest outing; his dam was a multiple graded stakes winner who won 7 of 13 turf starts for 531k, and he's a 1/2 to Antiqued (2-7, 76k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 48k).

Knox

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this colt is a 1/2 to Daddy Loves Gold (1-5, 53k over turf); winner from latest returned to win next out at Pim on 4/26 going 6f vs. 40k OPC's with an 81 Beyer. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Big N Perfect

Wide-trip, 1st Lasix and his 1st synthetic surface start produced a race that should move him forward in a big way for this; a repeat of his 2-back turf-exacta finish when rallying at longer when defeating Wings of Fortune would likely get his picture taken today; is coupled with Papy who also has upside off his GP-green graduation.

Edison

3-year-old faces older for the 1st time; have serious gate speed here on turf with Ausable River and on dirt with Barrister Jim; he raced on the lead in last but get the feeling he will be able to rate; would expect Pletcher-fresh GP-last-out runners to be tough to beat at this BEL meet; the other trainer's entry Village Warrior only races on dirt.

Developer

Wish his turf race was better but clearly looks like synthetic-surface racing is in his future; was favored in that lone grass start when catching a less-than firm course; style suggests 10F is well within his scope and share's the same sire as Ky. Derby winner Barbaro.

Barrister Jim

Main Track Only entry speedster owns the numbers' edge if in exiting a best-last-race Beyer speed figure; the 2-back field-best Beyer was posted on a muddy track at 3F shorter than today's scheduled event; longest-previous distance test of career at 9F is a win; try to catch me.

Ausable River

Speedster raced 5 times 1st at the 1st call in 8 races; love that his 1st race off the claim is a career-best Beyer; obviously major concerns if he can carry his speed this far especially with Edison likely breathing down his neck from the gate.

Village Warrior

Main Track Only entry raced 1st time ever on the lead in last increasing the margin to the wire; 3-year-old vs. older for the 1st time; Barrister Jim is the one to catch and would more likley be sitting just behind that one from the gate if this race is moved off the grass; like with so many in here must answer the classic-distance test.

Wings of Fortune

While so many of these have issues with the ability to last racing at today's classic distance; he exits a race where he was screaming out for more yardage and gets it here; rallied well at 12F but was defeated by Big N Perfect and would have to reverse that decision to score today.

Pontus

Main Track Only entry has not been up to facing similar rivals in recent races and gets Idle American again if in; Barrister Jim handed him earlier this year while he exits his lowest Beyer since December, 2012; is ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Winter Games

Main Track Only entry is another Idle American handled on the main track 2-back; defeated the 3-back show finisher who graduated next out in an AQU-MSW with an 82 Beyer; great sign the win rider stays but shown his best speed figure at 1 Mile which makes the added yardage today a big concern.

Ghareeb

Main Track Only entry was DQ'd from a 3-5-odds win at PIM but earned a career-best Beyer for that gate-to-wire score; Barrister Jim is fast from the gate and if he races here this one will have a tough time getting the front; he could ultimately help set things up for a closer; view as a pace presence for part.

Papy

Usually do not like to back recent-maiden graduates that test winners for the 1st time but this one shows an improving-Beyer pattern and staying ability already winning past today's classic distance is a plus; coupled with Big N Perfect in what seems to be a powerful-Clement coupling.

Idle American

0-for-6 in races at his previous-longest-distance test at 1M and an eighth; all 3 win pictures were produced on turf but has defeated many of these on dirt in 2014 so even though the 0-for-14 main-track record exists he would not mind this moved to the main track he would be an exotics factor; winless in 16 races since November 2012, at 1M on AQU 'good' turf; latest-exacta finish and career-best Beyer was posted on less than firm green which he obviously favors over firm footing. - Art Gropper

Race 6

Pleasant Shaker

Been given time since she clipped heels and fell; sometimes those incidents leave mental scars; 1 for 9 dam took a route, earned nearly $70K; lone half sister to race lost 30 times; 4th new rider hired; must hustle.

Suave and Smooth

She seemed to have found her level last time for a tag; why not just find a similar spot, get the diploma and move on?; place horse two back graduated and the winner 3/28 cashed next out in an N1X with a 60 Beyer; stakes placed 1 for 5 dam earned nearly $40K, won sprinting; lone half bro Swaylon Braylon took 3 of 24, banked about $55K, was sprint only; respect barn and note rider is 9 for 27 for Baker in the last year or so.

Fire Ship

Nearly 8 clear two back, she has to find a way to turn the tables on the Coffey runner among others; backers can point to the fact there are 2 successful routers in the family; must be given long look.

Contender's Queen

Miss could be more focused with the blinks this time; she may prefer maiden claimers if you consider the 2014 opener; considering the stretch out and the blinks, would expect rider to be aggressive from the get go.

Traipse in Utopia

Wide twice, at least she got a feel of the mile game; 9 for 54 dam banked over $100K, was route only; 3 of 4 siblings won including stakes placed triple route winner and near $170K earner I'm All Out; she's starting to figure it out.

Shades of Indygo

Mirror races in last pair and she wasn't frightening the winner; backers can hang their hat on fact there is a double router winner in the family and also an over $200K earner; she did have the excuse of slop in last; still not sold.

Easy Living

Miss wintered in Florida, trained steadily there and proved in the debut she has talent; 1 for 13 dam cashed sprinting; several multiple race winners in the tree including stakes winner, 5-time route winner and near $300K earner Jaramar Rain; the one to deny.

Legally Bay

She has had her chances but she appears to be coming around now; could see her sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip; should be right there when the smoke clears. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

U. S. S. O'Brien

Soph has fired every time but she does prefer to route; she found the waters vs. winners a little steeper in last but note show horse was 9 clear; place horse in maiden breaker cashed next out with a 67 Beyer, then ran out of the money; she fits on the Beyer scale and has a right to have a nice career as kin to near $200K earner Erma Lee; respect.

Aqua Regia

Like the series of drills since the last effort; even after setting the slow pace two back, filly could not close the deal; she has lost ground late in 4 of 5 outs; another slice?

Mlle. Minuit

Overmatched in the Grade 2 the other time in open company; speed challenged, there are several in here with designs on the top but things will need to break just right; may need Empire-breds to thirve.

Wraith

Finally off the rail, connections thought enough of her to try the Gazelle last time; shades off, wonder if they were also off for the best of 116 drill on the 19th?; she did have to drop into the maiden claimer to cash; needs very best.

Forever Loyal

She may not have adored the rail in the debut; miss got a good trip in Tampa and note the place horse was 6 clear; 4th finisher in last took a MSW and the 6th finisher beat $32K maiden claimers in next; the blood is there for her to mature with class as kin to Sara Louise, who took a G2, banked $400K; may like it here.

Holiday's Jewel

Somebody had to be third in the 5-horse field in last but she was clear for fun; drill last Friday suggests she is feeling pretty good about herself; must be left in the hopper.

Tiz So Sweet

Hung wide in the debut but she was flattered by the rail's success; she chased a nice horse in the debut; the winner that day has won a $98K and 2 $100K stakes since; homebred should give a very good account of herself. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Ramsey Branch

Shipper tries the lawn in his local debut and he's yet to finish in the exacta in any of his 8 career surface spins; gelding does have early lick and will likely look to be involved from the bell from this inside draw but his best hope looks to be if rains move this to the main track.

Smokey Brown

Tackles a better bunch while turning back to sprint following a solid late running placing from a tough draw across town; he was wide the entire way in that one and maybe he goes better with the move inside, but he doesn't have any early foot and that could pose him traffic issues from here; consider.

Lieutenant Seany O

Gelding has been working here for a while for this new outfit after being give some time off following an effort in which he failed to finish the trip; his 2 turf tries weren't terrible, but he doesn't have any one turn experience and his recent morning moves are all easy breezes; respect the barn with new acquisitions but it's not easy to get a gauge on this one in this spot.

Old Upstart

MTO recently graduate when equipped with shades for the first time when in for a tag in his first start of the year across town; he'll tackle winners for the first time here while getting off the fence and doesn't figure to face a very tough bunch if this were to be rained off; repeat threat.

Loveisheartandsoul

Makes his first start in 5 months after making a moderate impact late in his initial try with winners; his prior effort on the lawn was an excellent late running maiden score going long; shorter trip is a concern and the barn hasn't done particularly well of late with its returnees but if he gets an honest clip in front of him he could well be rolling on late; contender.

Santa Elf

MTO was beaten chalk in each of his last 2 sprint tries across town, most recently getting within a length of the winner at the wire; he's handy enough to sit a tracking spot off the pace runners from the outset and his pedigree suggests he'd appreciate the wet going; he's a contender if this gets rained off.

Distorted Dream

Took him 14 cracks to break his maiden and he did it going long out of town; gelding showed solid early foot on the stretchout and now he'll turn back for his first start with winners; sometimes this type comes back with another big effort once they figure the game out and maybe he has a little more to offer late at this shorter trip.

Missile Nick

Gelding found a flat mile too far for him while trying winners for the first time last out; maybe the cut back to this trip helps and he does look to have the lick to sit a pace tracking spot from the bell but he has yet to run particularly fast; his sire gets 6% first time surface winners from his offspring and neither the dam, nor her other foals to race, tried the green; maybe for a share.

Beau Who

Showed some grit to score when in for a tag in his first start of the year and now he'll try winners for the first time just 3 weeks later in his return to the lawn; his dam's other runners are a combined 0 for 5 over this type of footing and his initial spin over it didn't really suggest he deserves another surface try.

Donttellyourmother

Tries the green for the first time following a couple of speed and fade lines in as many starts with winners; gelding is by a sire who gets 10% first turf winners from his offspring and the dam was 0 for 1 over the footing; don't know that he'll love the new surface but he should be flaunting his lick once again.

Horatio

Finally broke through to get the maiden score in his 13th career start after settling for minor awards 10 times; statebred will try the green for the initial time against open company in this spot; his sire gets 7% first surface winners from his offspring and he's the first foal to try the footing out of a dam who was 0 for 2 over the stuff; maybe his last gave him some confidence as he tackles a new task.

Midnight Missile

MTO proved little match for the top 2 in his first with winners after running down cheap statebred maidens in his inner track finale; he's on the improve from a figure standpoint and will catch a much softer bunch here than he did last time; with a couple of sharp recent breezes in tow, he's a contender if this gets moved off the lawn. - Steve Grabowski