Belmont: Closer Looks for May 15, 2014

Race 3

Real Estate Rich

Coupled with Define; after a rocky start to his career at GP in the fall things have really picked up; not only did Jacobson claim him during the winter but after losing him via a claim he snatched him right back a couple months ago; Beyers have moved up and those last 2 show he handles this place well - but there are some toughies lined up against him.

Cast a Doubt

Rattled off 3 straight wins in the fall/winter, the first 2 in SoCal and then win No. 3 on the inner; then found N1X foes a bit too much there; been freshened, which has worked well for him in the past and it's most encouraging Levine brings him back without a tag attached and gets Rosario to ride.

Bemata

Toss that turf dud here last Sept. 29 and you're then left with a string of nice outings; comes off a solid 2nd at AQU last month and there are 2 big bullet works since at SAR to indicate he comes here feeling spry; nice that Brown not only saw fit to claim him Dec. 4 but also that he's run this guy now in 3 spots where he couldn't lose him via another claim.

Dan and Sheila

Sharp 2nd to the sharp Sokitumi Samurai (who came right back to win) on the inner March 9 and was claimed for $25K; DiPrima then brought him back in the mud at AQU April 26 without a tag attached, but a slow start didn't help matters; to his credit he kept to his task well for 3rd; no layoff since and no drop back in for a tag.

Define

Coupled with Real Estate Rich; looked good whipping restricted claimers here May 9; water figures quite a bit deeper today but it's most encouraging Jacobson does not risk losing him for a tag here; must make up quite a bit of ground on Risk Management, who beat him by 10 1/4 lengths April 24, but that was also this guy's first start in nearly 9 months and he showed in that May 9 win he's taken a significant leap forward.

Risk Management

You had to be worried when he ran so poorly on the inner Feb. 17 and was then gone over 2 months; however, that super comeback win at AQU April 24 pushed aside those concerns, particularly as while they risked him for a tag that day (there were no takers) they take no such rish today; has tactical speed and versatility to give his rider options; still, while that last was a career-top Beyer (84) there are a few in here who have registered higher on the Beyer scale so he likely needs another move forward.

Coolusive

Won 2 of last 2 and the 2 wins came the 2 times he ran for a $25K tag; was claimed each time, too; was a well-beaten 3rd in between those 2 wins when facing N1X foes; these guys are surely tougher than those $25K guys he beat May 2 but the Beyer came back to tie a career-best (91) so could it be he's back to the form that was so smart the first half of 2013, hmmmm? - Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Northern Tripp

Cuts back to his shortest-distance test since June, 2012; finished last in a key race; the winner and 8th-place finisher from last posted 84-76 Beyer speed figures in next-out AQU-optional-claiming and TAM allowance wiins; exits his lowest Beyer since October, 2012; the DQ'd winner from last Beyered 84 in a next-out AQU-optional-claiming win.

Ziggy the Great

Reunites with the debut-win rider who began the BEL meet just like he left off at KEE and GP red hot; willing to toss his latest 1st time with winners off the bench and on a wet-turf course; the way he pressed the pace at longer at 6F this may be a good distance for him; 3-year-old making just start 3 still has a lot of upside.

Sun Worshipper

Away since posting a career-low Beyer; obviously dirt was not his thing so was all freshened up for the grass and returns to the win distance while reuniting with the win rider; expects to make a midpack rally but can he win it all right off the bench?

Ganador

Exiting sprints projects to be a pace presence with stamina issues; sire is 14-for-172 with 1st-turf starters; 0-for-1 dam did not race on grass; 2 foals to race on turf went 0-for-2; view as an outsider off the 44-1 troubled-mud loss over the track.

Station Chief

Sire is 10-for-111 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 12-0-4-3- grass dam (23K); 2 foals to race on turf went 0-for-5; both dirt starts were rock solid and his debut looks even better since the winner made it 2-for-2 winning an AQU alw. with a 90 Beyer.

Sol the Freud

Defeated the 4th and 5th-place finishers from last they Beyered 74-73 in next-out AQU-OPC and starter alw. wins; sire is 33-for-244 with 1st-turf starters; 4-for-21 dam (36K) did not race on grass; she produced 2 full-grass winners including 1-for-1 turfer stakes-winner Franny Freud (60K).

Slimshady

Exits his lowest Beyer since March, 2013; is another who has been away and would likely benefit from a race in 2014; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-OPC with an 87 Beyer; lone win was a last-to-1st rally and we did see a 6F-Widener Turf winner score from 8th-12 lengths back already this meet..

Waterway

Sire is 7-for-67 with 1st-turf starters; 1-for-3 dam did not race on grass but produced 3 green winners including 2-for-16 turfer Shipwreckstreasure (63K turf); another layoff runner who just graduated; had to be impressed by the Beyer displayed in latest dirt sprint but will be taking a wait and see approach for this.

Pegasus Red

Sire is 25-for-362 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an 8-0-1-0 grass dam (7K); 5 foals to race on North American turf are 0-for-9 combined; FL graduate finished evenly in latest suggesting he might want a lot more distance than 6F.

Captain Davrick

Declining-Beyer pattern including the grass debut 2-back; stamina has been his issue but figures to be an early factor here; field-best Beyer speed figure was posted on a wet-fast main track so is hoping this one gets washed off the green.

Sandcat

Sire is 9-for-127 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 6-0-1-0 grass dam (18K); his career-best Beyer was in the 2nd race off a layoff which is the exact scenario for this; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 89 in a next-out AQU-OPC win.

Countknickerbocker

Exits a co-best-last-race Beyer speed figure but like Thnxtomyuncle this will mark start 1 of 2014 so there is a strong possibility both runners will need this race off the bench; the trainer's BEL winner at the current meet occured with a 1st-time starter.

Thnxtomyuncle

Sire is 1-for-64 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 12-0-1-1 grass dam (23K); strange time to take the long layoff right after the maiden breaker in start 12; the win rider sides with Station Chief for this; needs a pace metldown to score.

Escape to the Moon

Main Track Only entry with a lot of gate speed; in the last 10 races on BEL dirt through May 11 at 6F five of those winners went gate-to-wire; his lone win was on a wet track so is doing the rain dance for this; was primed for this at longer which would make him doubly tough if he can make the lead today. - Art Gropper

Race 5

Cost Affective

4-year-old owns the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field and he will appreciate the easier company in his first start in a maiden claiming race; his latest was pretty dull but he to check when he was between horses going down the backstretch and it may have discouraged him; focus on his race two back where he lost by a head in a straight maiden race and he looks like the one to beat; the pick.

Eight Cents

He's been part of the tri in half of his eight starts and he is coming off a solid effort in a $40K maiden claimer where he earned his career-best Beyer Speed Figure; he cuts back to a sprint, though, and it seems like he's a better horse going longer at this stage in his career; would like him a lot better against cheaper going longer but he is a sharp horse right now and would consider using him in the exotics.

Rich 'n' Tuck

Debut was his best race and it came over this surface so it wouldn't be surprisng to see him turn things around with the drop into a maiden claimer for the first time; the past five years Zito has a 17 percent strike rate with horses taking the plunge; can see him moving forward in his second start back and we're always willing to throw out a race on Polytrack; playable.

Lake Effect

He didn't receive a lot of support when he debuted in a maiden special weight race for NY-breds April 26 and after breaking poorly he rushed up into contention on the turn before fading to last; he should move forward with a race behind him but the first foal out of unraced mare still has a ways to go; prefer others.

Summer Cove

Nothing but turf so far and he seemed to be heading in the right direction so it is interesting to see him show up running for a tag in his first try on the main track; horse that won his latest beat half the field in the 12-horse Grade 3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream in his next start; dam's lone win came on dirt; strong stats for McLaughlin in all the relevant categories; contender.

Perfect American

Blinkers go on so maybe he'll improve but so far he really hasn't made an impact in any of his three races; he dropped into the same race Eight Cents exits in his latest and he was eased after losing touch with the field; he did have an excuse as he was bumped around at the start and he did come back with a decent work; nonethess, he is going to have to improve substantially to contend here; passing.

Cashmere Cat

Finished behind Cost Affective in his two starts this year and he had excuses both times with less than perfect starts; the past five years Romans has a 22 percent strike rate with horses going from MSW to maiden claiming; 3 of 5 sibs are winners the best being 3-time winner May 14 who has banked $75K; looks like a major player with Rosario taking over. - Randy Goulding

Race 6

The Giant's Lamp

Giant's Causeway about 11% with firsters in an 681-horse sample, about 9% with first-time turfers in a 571-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7 and took a Group 1 at 2, earned over $3 million as a turf monster; stakes placed 4 for 23 dam banked nearly $225K, won thrice on grass; lone half bro lost 4 times; could need experience.

Hiddenite

Over 3 clear in last, maybe she just wanted grass all along; dam's lone win was a dirt sprint; all 4 siblings won; one cashed on grass once, one banked $125K; note March finale came back ultra live; the 2nd, 4th and 5th finishers graduated next out and the winner repeated in a $20K starter with a 71 Beyer; major player.

Gu Gu Beans

Empire-bred has not raised a gallop so far; hse was hung wide in last but the turf debut leaves much to be desired; show horse in last took a maiden $75K GP seller, the 12th finisher took a MSW at AQU and the 5th finisher was 2nd a head in a $25K optional; dam won a sprint at 2 for only victory; 3 of 5 siblings won; all tried grass to no avail, one banked over $200K; must pick it up.

Elissa Town

Backers got a thrill on the front end before the cave job act kicked in; note 11/21 winner won three times since, the last in a $62.5K optional with an 88 Beyer; backers can point to the fact there are several multiple race winners and 6-figure earners in the family; best Beyers came for this pilot.

Laghazirella Beach

Wide twice, at least she split the field and she goes 2nd time Lasix here; 7 for 23 dam earned $240K, won 5 times on grass; lone half sis lost 23 times; must be left in the exotic conversation.

Golden Maria

In for $20K less than purchase price, note gap in published drills till last Saturday; Grade 2 winning 3 for 10 dam banked nearly $300K, lost only turf out; this is her first to race; would be careful here.

Naughty Matilda

Indian Charlie hits with about 11% of his first-time turfers in a 339-horse sample; sire took debut at 2, won first 4 starts including the SA Derby, never turfed; SW 3 for 17 dam banked over $160K, won twice on grass; this is her first to race; trainer has spotted them fine this year and Adsit is an 11% trainer the last 5 years with median payoffs of nearly $13.

Wild Faith

Denis of Cork is off to a good start as 2 of his first 4 first-time turfers won; sire won debut at 2, took a G3, earned over $600K, never turfed; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; show horse in the debut graduated next out in a maiden $16K claimer, then was 2nd beaten over 8 in a $40K starter; she has the 2 races to draw from now; respect.

Silverama

Mineshaft about 6% with first-time turfers in a 174-runner sample, about 7% with debuters in a 303-runner sample; sire did not race at 2, took multiple G1s going long, banked over $2.2 million; dam won 4 times in France, earned over $100K, was turf only; lone half bro Mofrah took 4 of 18, earned over $50K, was dirt only; she wintered in Florida, may like it here.

Medaglia d'Argento

No speed, no asset; she has met some repeat winners and the winner of her last cashed next out in a $75K optional with a 74 Beyer; could be compromised by the post.

Zuma Moon

She has more speed than she just flashed and could be more relaxed with the blinks off; she has a right to have a nice career as kin This Ain't No Bull was unbeaten in 4 tries on grass, banked over $250K; if she can run at all, she should show it here.

Lloyd Harbor

Youngster regressed 2nd time blinks in last but she was bothered early on; may need softer to shine.

Notional Girl

Can't be thrilled with the multiple beats vs. softer; the third and 4th finishers on 1/31 graduated next out; there is at least a turf winner in the family; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Solar Side Up

Got to lugging in the debut and wonder how high the expectations can be for this $2,500 purchase; dam was out of the money 3 times; lone half bro Driven by Solar took 10 of 35, earned almost $400K, won on grass once; has some things to iron out. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

B Shanny

Only 2 efforts this year but the last one was a tough beat loss in a blanket finish; attempted today's exact distance only once before and caught a wet track that day (notice his lifetime record in that category); on a dry surface, he is a gritty sprinter who can handle various pace set-ups; respect.

Chilton

This gelding is a curious item who has shown vast improvement since being claimed (on the same day he finally escaped the n2l condition); spots valuable experience over the course as well as the small, but important, weight concession; difficult assessment.

The Big Deluxe

Consistent early speed is his strong suit although he has not been a sprint setting in a while; the grey gets a huge weight shift in his favor this afternoon but that may not be enough of a plus factor; needs perfect positioning by the apprentice.

Bass River Road

Strictly a Big A portfolio thus far and the sophomore has never faced his elders; despite a steady workout regimen over the training track, he may have a difficult time keeping pace with these far more experienced lads; cannot be given the top vote regardless of the soil condition at post time.

Tug of War

Exits an exceptionally fast race for the class involved so today's price tag increase is a bit deceptive; the main concern is whether or not he can handle this turnback in distance; would increase his exacta possibilities if an off-track is the order of the day.

Dan's Gold

Course and distance effort only 13 days ago was respectable despite losing as the public choice; he was pinned to the rail when caught up in a speed duel and understandably faded; can atone from this slot and achieve ideal early position as was the case in the tally 2 starts back.

The Rhythmisright

Lightly-raced but he earned a powerful comparative Beyer in the victory 2 back; although failing at today's distance thereafter, the middle fractions in that race were extremely heated and he can be forgiven the loss; not sure if he can clear the field from this outpost; expert trainer/jockey combo an obvious plus. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Steve

Two of his last three starts have been a couple of his better efforts but this has to be viewed as being a tough group of N1X allowance rivals for him to meet up with; note that he's been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his four starts this year; he looks like more of an outsider.

Canzoni

Stakes placed colt has run well in both of his turf attempts, and the winner from his latest race returned to win next out at Kee on 4/18 going 5 1/2f over turf vs. alw. rivals with an 89 Beyer; Castellano has won with 41 of 119 (34%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Patent

With the exception of a G3 run when last seen, his overall turf form has been solid, and this colt is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Tizaqueena (8-18, 654k, including 4 of 12 turf starts for 462k); runner up from latest won next out at Kee on 4/19 going 1 1/16m in a G3 with a 90 Beyer; Saez has won with 9 of 32 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

J to the Croft

Have to respect the natural ability he showed in his career debut sprinting, and he clearly deserves another chance to see what he can do racing over turf; this colt is out of a multiple G1 stakes placed dam who won 3 of 14 starts for 295k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 27k; note that Lezcano was aboard for the sharp debut win.

Belly of the Whale

One of two signed on in here for the Clement barn and there's a chance that Ortiz had his choice between mounts and lands here; he's done little wrong in his first three starts and feel that a forward move in his second start as a 3-year-old is very possible; must consider.

Mansion House (IRE)

He's G3 stakes placed racing in Ireland and he earned a stakes placing in his first start in America in his most recent outing; winner from latest won next out at GP on 11/30 going 1m in a 100k stakes with a 67 Beyer and runner up won next out at Wo on 11/16 going 1 1/16m vs. N1X rivals with a 63 Beyer.

Part

He's improved from start-to-start to begin his career and the runner up from his latest race returned to win next out at CD on 5/3 going 7f in a 75k OPC with an 89 Beyer; he's another lightly raced runner in here who is eligible to still have more to show us. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Forever Utopia

Tries the lawn in her return from the freshening for a barn that does a nice job with them off this type of break; colt ran big in each of his 2 local sod spins last year and figures to benefit from the surface switch and he catches a field that doesn't contain a lot of established turf form; he's had his chances and has settled for too many runner up spots, but he's the one they'll have to beat here.

Dreamin of Betty

Took all the money while shipping up from Florida to try older statebred foes for the first time across town last month but did little running from that wide spot; maybe the new hood helps and he does get a switch to a rider who is going well here; barn boasts excellent numbers second back from the break; consider.

Analysis

Hood comes off a gelding who was beaten chalk when last sighted here nearly 11 months ago; he'll get a top pilot for his local return and ran ok sprinting over the local course the first time he tried it; maybe the new barn helps move him up in his first route spin but this guy's sibs are a combined 0 for 6 on the footing.

Shipwrecked

Speedy gelding tries the lawn for the first time here for a barn that doesn't boast much recent luck with this type; he's the first of his sire's offspring to try this type of footing and neither his dam, nor his lone sib to race tried the green, either.

Sunbio

Gray failed as the chalk in each of his 3 MSW tries on this sod last year but was twice rather good sprinting here; maybe the time off served him well and the barn boasts a recent big priced return winner; nice to see a solid journeyman pilot take interest and last week's drill says he's on his toes for the comebacker; don't know that he's at his best at this trip, but his surface form makes him a contender.

Toohottoevenspeak

Took his share of tote support when moved to the green for the first time but didn't have a lot to offer after tracking a slow clip across town; dam did win twice on the lawn so maybe he deserves another crack over the footing and he did show some ability going long over a wet inner track; price should be improved to give him a look.

Raffies Bay

Makes his first start since Saratoga where he got going too late in his first start at 9 panels; gelding didn't show any early foot at all with the shades removed for that one and though he's worked ok of late for the comebacker, he will likely need one before we see the best he has to offer; prefer others on the win end.

Royal Posse

Tries the lawn for the initial time after running out of ground in the off the turfer across town last month; hot outfit names a new pilot for this and they do a solid job with runners switching surfaces; sire gets 8% first surface winners from its offspring and none of the dam's 3 winning foals tried the stuff.

Hushhushmushmush

Goes first time for a barn that excels with its new acquisitions while making her first start since the fall; gelding ran a big one second time out over this footing and he'll get a top pilot for his first start with older; if he gets an honest clip in front of him he should be coming hard late for this white hot outfit; one to fear late.

With Expression

Outside drawn returnee makes her first start for an outfit that does nice work with this type; he wasn't much of a threat to one of these in his debut last fall but the pace was slow that day and there was quite a bit of give to the ground; maybe first Lasix helps him offer more with the initial experience behind him.

Vagarious

AE will start from the outside slot if a scratch allows him to make his surface debut today; barn hasn't had much luck with that type, but they do move them forward second back from the break and though the sire is just 4 for 61 with his initial turf starters the dam won her lone start over the stuff and both of her foals to try the green won over it.

My Papa D

Newcomer is by a sire who is 5 for 41 with his overall firsters and 0 for 20 with his initial turfer starters; SW dam banked 246K while winning 4 times on the main track and dropped a surface winner as well as SW and 229K earner Prince of Peace who never tried the lawn; barn is capable of firing right out of the box and they do name a capable bug pilot.

Macagone

AE didn't do much in his Gulfstream turf debut this past winter and now he'll try statebreds for the first time if he gets to go; new outfit has had some recent luck with newly acquired stock and a top pilot will get aboard if he meets the starter; limited turf winning dam dropped a winner over this footing so maybe this guy moves forward some second over it.

Point Roll

AE ran well on the Gulfstream lawn first time out but didn't have enough late when defeated at odds on in his first with statebreds across town last month; dam won 4 times on the green and dropped a couple of surface winners; he'll get the worst of the pace draw if he somehow gets to go, but off the numbers he's run thus far he'll likely prove tough to run down at another short price for a top turf outfit.

Sir Maurice

AE gets back in with MSWs if scratches allow him to make his 13th career start in this spot; ran ok sprinting over this course early last fall but hasn't run fast enough on dirt recently to threaten this bunch late; have to pass if he goes.

Electric Currency

Mired on the AE list and not likely to go, this gelding looks to make his turf debut first time off a solid outfit's claim; his sprint debut across town last fall wasn't bad and his sire gets 11% first surface winners; dam dropped local turf winner and 180K earner Tazered. - Steve Grabowski