Belmont: Closer Looks for May 14, 2014

Race 1

Social Affair

Field's most experienced turfer makes his first start of the year of a set of solid recent breezes for a barn that boasts some recent luck with returnees; he'll get a top pilot for the comebacker and he has shown some early interest over the local sod; contender first time back.

Better Man

MTO tired when stretched out to the trip in the local slop in Saturday and now he'll quickly give it another shot if the rains come; expect he'll again be close early and given his pedigree maybe he'll have a little more to offer late second time at this trip; price should be right to use him in exotics if this gets moved off.

Pacific

Pricey in-training buy last spring makes his debut for an outfit that certainly knows what it's doing with this type and a top pilot will take the call; works are all easy breezes so there's not a lot to take from the tab but it is steady and his sire gets 14% first out winners from his offspring; gray is the first foal to race out of a G2 SW dam who banked 272K in her career.

Perfect Stormy

Moves back in with MSWs after tiring in his first crack on the lawn; colt did show some improved early interest on the stretchout last time and the dam was a G2 SW turfer and 541K earner who has dropped 2 surface winners in the states so maybe he deserves another crack over this stuff, but they were willing to lose him last time and that doesn't bode so well for his chances of improving enough to factor.

Wing Foot

Took some money in his troubled surface debut at Keeneland last month and now he'll try the local so with some decent interim breezes in tow; colt is kin to a surface winner in the states as well as several overseas including g G1 SW and 1.1 million earner Lucarno; have to think he takes a big step forward with a clean run second time out; can't be overlooked.

Grand Strand

MTO earned a field best number while holding second money across town in his first spin on this circuit; colt returned to breeze well here for a barn that stretches them out well and kin to a handful of route and off track winners, including G1 SP, SW and 505K earner Barcola, he figures to be right at home were this to be rained off; one to beat if he goes.

Distant Thoughts

MTO offered little in a heat with similar conditions here this past weekend; his lone sib's 2 wins both came sprinting so despite the long winded sire's side of the pedigree maybe this guy just isn't fond of going long; just watching him if he meets the starter.

Howl

Adds the hood for his first crack off the claim by an outfit that hasn't had any recent luck with this type; colt failed to hold on at odds on when rivals came to him in the claiming ranks and he'll jump back up to face MSWs here in his turf debut; sharp interim drill suggests he does like the new equipment and his sire does get 10% first surface winners from his offspring; he's the first foal to race out of a limited route winning dam who was winless from one grass try.

Jimmy Soul

Brings some speed to the table for his first turf start for an outfit that hasn't had much luck with this type; sire gets 14% initial surface winners from his offspring and the G2 SP dam was 0 for 1 on the green prior to dropping foals who were a combined 0 for 5 on the footing; don't know that he's going to love the lawn but his speed could take him a long way and he's certainly bred to take to the conditions if the rains come and this gets moved to dirt.

Lunar Tales

Showed big early foot sprinting first out on the Gulfstream lawn and held pretty well for second money over a runner who returned to break his maiden with an 86 Beyer over synthetic footing North of the border; new outfit is having a pretty nice stand and they've worked him several times locally for his first crack on this circuit; his sire was a G1 SP router and the dam did win going long so this guy should take to the added trip; one to catch and beat.-Steve Grabowski

Race 2

Mach Seven

He has some prompting speed in his favor and now goes back to apprentice handling; he is stabled at the Big A, however, and his unfamiliarity with the Belmont surface is a major knock; may do no better than minor spoils once again.

Stowe

Broke slowest in his first run at Gulfstream and did not fire but exports from that track have done well when shipping out all over the country; this colt's sire won 2 of 5 and 393K while the dam won 3 of 21 and 68K; among the winning siblings is 133K earner Our Year.

England

He has the advantage of a recent race over the track and it was a solid placing; retains topnotch rider and lands into a field that is soft for the price tag involved; obvious true contender but the price on the tote board will be unappealing.

King Gettigan

Yielded some dividends for the new connections with a promising third in the latest run; he has suffered through from very wide trips in several of his efforts and should earn a money finish this afternoon if avoiding such a fate.

Giulio Cesari

This could be the right value play (and is the selection) if the blinker removal is an indicator of a probable change of tactics; Franco may elect use Wood On the Fire as the target pacesetter and then middle move before other ralliers get into gear.

Wood On the Fire

This is his 15th attempts in these ranks yet he has better gate speed than most of the field; attempted this distance early in his career and although he finished out of the money that day, he did encounter traffic trouble; needs very pedestrian early fractions.

Dexter Cheesestake

Makes his first start for this barn after failing to handle the mile a month ago; subsequent breezes are fair; his sire won a G1 and 454K while the dam won 1 of 4 and 19K; among the winning siblings is 189K earner Copper Forest.

Wild About Dixie

Not easy for a thoroughbred to begin a racing career around 2 turns; this gelding never got into the race in that maiden voyage but now adds blinkers; his sire won a G1 and 464K while the dam was unraced; sib to 5K bankroller Taste the Wild.

Say Nay Nay

Flashed a bit more early speed in the last attempt over the inner dirt; like most of his rivals, he has never attempted seven furlongs and that may well be a distance beyond his scope; has turned in some modest breezes over the training track of late.

Come On Charlie

Clearly beaten by England in their last encounter although the wet-fast surface might have been one of the reasons; this colt's sire won a G2 and 388K overall; the dam did not compete and this is her sole foal to make it to the races.-Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Blue Cherokee

His first start for Jacobson was a good one and the horse that finished second won a $25K maiden claimer for fun April 24; both of his races on dirt were solid and would expect Castellano to put him into the race right from the start; he was scratched out of a $40K starter race Apirl 16 but he's had four works since and Jacobson has excellent numbers with horses coming back in this time period; big shot.

Muscles Marinara

4-year-old is just 1 for 18, but that was a good effort in his latest as he was forced to steady early and then made strong late move to just miss in a $25K n/w/2; this appears to be a tougher spot but he seems to have improved lately and if he can keep moving forward he could get up in time to pick up a slice.

Midnight Missile

Ran into a tough one two back in a $50K starter race- Salutos Amigos won his next two and he earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in his romp in the slop a $62,500 optional race last Saturday, this guy regressed when he chased the pace in a $40K starter race that was washed off the turf May 2; he probably wants to make one run and this might not set up for him; prefer others.

Againsome

$400K yearling had to drop into a $35K maiden claimer to break his maiden but he did it in style and he comes into this with the best last race Beyer Speed Figure; just three starts for the lone 3-year-old in the field so he could have the most upside potential; it also looks like he can either stalk what should be a moderate pace or be the one they have to catch; the pick.

Boss of Me

Scratched after winning last Saturday.

Alysaro

Nice win in his only start this year but he didn't beat much- none of the horses he faced have won since and the horse that finished third lost as the heavy chalk in a $7.5K maiden claimer at Finger Lakes last Saturday; claimed out of his latest by Gonzalez who hasn't won with the last eight he's brought back the first time, but three finished second; he's also winning races at a high clip and this guy, who ran well here last season, figures to move forward in his second start this year; not out of the question.-Randy Goulding

Race 6

Take the Zeppole

Eltish 12 for 112 with first-time turfers; sire won in second start, was a Group 2 winner, earned over 700 grand, over 200K of that on grass; dam's lone win came on grass; this is her first to race; look for rider to send hard at the sound of the bell; should at least muddle the pace.

Chloe Bear

Wonder if connections had this race in mind all along?; this is her surface, the sprint may have help her speed and she improved in the last second off the layoff run when she was getting to the winner late; winner of last repeated in a $12.5K N3L event, then was out of the money against $25K claimers; another slice?

Nickerdoodle

Checked last time, she was nearly 3 clear two back and should be making an impact late; March 2 winner repeated in a $50K starter; she also may not have cared for the good course last time; there should be a hot enough pace to help the cause; respect.

William'sluckygray

Dunkirk 2 for 12 with first-time turfers; sire didn t go at 2, was G1 placed, banked nearly $400K, never turfed; 5 for 17 dam was dirt sprint only; she has a shot to have a decent career as top sibling Stolen Love took 4 of 18, earned over $100K; miss may have disliked the mud in last; expect much better effort.

Eurokay by Me

Would expect miss to be more involved early on the stretch out; 3/30 show horse took a $12.5K N2L fray next out and then was 2nd beaten a length and a quarter in a $16K N3L event; more experienced pilot hired; note wraps re-added in last; try to get a good look at her on the track.

Lucky Nancy E.

First try vs. winners was solid; note she was over 4 clear; she comes off a career Beyer and the shorter trip could be right up her alley; the light seems to have finally went on; slight improvement and she'll be a handful.

Dattts Da Boss

She has much more speed than she just flashed; protected in last, but somebody had to run third in the short field; he was over 6 clear in the process; winner of last repeated in a $40K optional with an 85 Beyer; trainer has spotted them fine this year with limited starters; another threat in a good betting race.

Dramatize

Connections thought enough of her to try the stakes to kick off the year; returned was solid as she was all by herself in second; this is her surface and note show horse in last won next out in a $15K claimer with a 72 Beyer; with a clean start, it could be a whole new ballgame.

Tizallheart

The freshening worked to perfection; she clearly fit better in maiden claiming land but it's never simple to beat winners right back even in conditioned claiming land; 2/10 winner took a $40K starter next out but with only a 55 Beyer; must be left in the hopper.

Sundae School

Miss was losing a little ground late in her best try on grass when beaten just over 3; she could be compromised by the slot this time; needs very best.-Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Most Happy Fella

It's certainly fair to question the dirt form that is signed on in this event, so if this race does have to be moved to the main track, this will be a favorable spot for this multiple stakes palced veteran to land in; that said, he will need to improve over his recent form to come out on top.

North Star Boy (IRE)

Stakes placed 5-year-old has hardly run a bad race since arriving in America, a span of nine starts, and he earned his strongest Beyer Speed Figure to date in his latest outing while making his first start back from a layoff; like to see that Castellano has been aboard for both of his wins in this country.

Treasury Devil

Not wild about Bernardini as a turf sire, but this gelding is stakes placed racing on turf and his dam was a G1 winner racing overseas; runner up from latest won next out at Kee on 4/17 going 1 1/2m over turf vs. N2X alw. rivals with a 94 Beyer.

Mills

He's displayed a good deal of ability since his career debut and his latest start at Gulfstream Park can be viewed as being the sharpest start of his life; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Pim on 4/19 going 1m over turf in a 100k stakes with an 89 Beyer.

Bravodino

Nicely bred turfer is out of a dam who was a G3 winner racing overseas, and based on what he showed us in his first start in America, it's a good idea to respect him as a contender; note the success that this outfit has had with horses making their second start back from this type of a layoff.

Cozy Kitten

Multiple graded stakes placed veteran sports solid overall turf form but this has a chance to prove to be a tough step up in class for him after being claimed for 35k from his latest outing; he might be worth looking out for in a softer spot the next time around.

Rapscallion

He deserves credit for outrunning his odds in his latest start, but things really unfolded in his favor in that race, and simply feel that his best effort is short of the mark of what it will take to win this; one of two signed on in here for the Motion barn.

Comes the Dream

Since a couple of encouraging performances to begin his career, his form hasn't developed the way that one might have envisioned, and he's obviously going to need to produce the performance of his career if he's planning on threatening the top contenders in here.

Stormy Len

Maybe he can be knocked a little bit for only producing one winning performance as a 3-year-old, but he showed us that he's a very solid turf horse, and not going to be surprised if he has a much stronger 4-year-old campaign; he ran better than it looks on paper in his first start of 2013, and going to look for him to be ready to give a good account of himself in his 2014 racing debut while being reunited with John V.-Brian Pochman

Race 8

Royal Currier

Good first run of the year at AQU April 27 as he went out to a clear lead before tiring a bit in the lane to finish 3rd; the winner of that race, Vyjack, has the potential to be a top horse (ran in last year's G1 Ky. Derby, pointing for the G1 Met Mile); trouble is, the horse who beat him by 2 1/2 lengths for 2nd (Sensational Slam) is lined up against him again today so he's got to make up some ground there; of course, that's by no means out of reach as this guy can benefit from that first run of the year, has fine speed and has been a real pro (12 wins).

Carried Interest

Looked like a real comer in thke summer of 2012 when he ran 2nd in the G2 Futurity; didn't run badly when he came back in 2013 but didn't progress enough to get into stakes ranks or the winner's circle; however, he's now 2 for 4 this year and comes off a very nice win at AQU where he got a heady Beyer (97); of course, today's foe Sensational Slam beat him the 2 times they met so he's got to turn the tables on that guy.

Green Gratto

Loads of speed in his arsenal; there is other speed in here but he figures quickest; even so, the other speed can still hound him and a couple of today's foes beat him in his last 2 starts; still, that speed is always tempting and you've seen it before where there appears to be ample speed, but then maybe 1 or 2 of the speedsters don't break or don't send and suddenly you have a lone F on your hands; not saying that's going to happen, but hey, you've seen it, haven't you?

Saturday's Charm

Found the G1 Carter waters too deep but his prior run, a nice 3rd in the G3 Tom Fool shows this guy's quality; might get a nice set-up here, too, as the 3 to his left should ensure a strong pace and so long as that Carter didn't take something out of him he can surely bounce back with a big run on the drop.

Sensational Slam

Well behind 'Charm when 7th in the G3 Tom Fool but his 2 starts since have been very smart; it looks as if he's back on track and he should again get a nice pace to bolster his late kick; still, with that style it means he has to go get some nice guys, and also outkick some nice guys but his last 2 Beyers are career bests so he may well be peaking; and the horse he nearly beat last time, Vyjack, is GSW who ran in last year's Ky. Derby is next pointing for the G1 Met Mile so he's no softie.

Tenango

Only a length behind 'Slam when they met on the inner Dec. 28 so if that guy is a player here - and he is - then doesn't it follow this guy can be, too?; darn tootin' it does; solid stakes try 2nd here May 1 after 2 1/2 months off should have him set up well and while he's got speed he's not speed-crazy so could be he falls into a dream trip just behind the speed type; tough race, eh?-Michael Hammersly

Race 9

Regifting

Hard to make a case off the 1st-blinkered last-place finish when no match for Baby B; turf usually offers a better Beyer speed figure than dirt but she posted the 2nd lowest number of her career 1st time on the green; would be a shocker.

Eddy's Time

Exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when posting a career-best number in her 1st start in nearly 6 months; would think she should move forward for this 2nd time back off the bench but returns in just 19 days; is trying to just repeat last which would make her a major factor here.

Baby B

Projects as the lone speed in this event playing catch me if you can; back in just 3 weeks after flashing early zip on the stretchout; 3 of the barn's 5 BEL winners were following 30 day-or longer layoffs; speed has not held well on this grass; in 11 Widener Turf races at the current BEL meet only 1 runner went gate to wire and that was at 6F.

Bella Fachi

Blinkers were off for last which helped her Beyer speed figure improve but produced another far-back defeat; expected her to flash better tactical speed in the green debut but was a non-factor througout; is a tough call here.

Tenacious Indeed

Sire is 4-for-60 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 4-for-20 grass dam (156K); ran to those 31-1 debut odds with the single-digit Beyer posted; the trainer's had win success with maiden-2nd starters; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 84 in a next-out BEL-MSW win.

Piccolo Flats

Sire is 1-for-53 with 1st-turf starters; dam went 1-0-0-0 on the lawn producing 5 winners from 6 other foals to race but none raced on grass; the runner-up and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 75-67 in next-out AQU-MSW and FL-15K-maiden-claiming wins.

Dulhan

Sire is 0-for-33 with 1st-turf starters; 5-for-68 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 3-for-33 dam (109K) who won 1-of-10 on turf (42K) producing 1 winner from 2 other foals to race (3-for-34 Bayshore Blaze 68K) who went 6-0-0-1 on turf.

Sleek

The winner, runner-up and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 77-76-73 in next-out BEL-100K stakes and MSW wins; troubled trips in 1st pair getting a new rider who has sizzled early in the BEL meet at 30%; trainer has a fresh winner at the current meet but since 2013 is 1-for-12 with long-layoff runners.

Nile Empress

Sire is a superb 6-for-20 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-1 grass dam; defeated Piccolo Flats when rallying in a key race; closers have fared well on the Widener green this meet; the runner-up and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 75-67 in next-out AQU-MSW and FL-15K-maiden-claiming wins.

Laurenmychanelgirl

Sire is 11-for-188 with 1st-turf starters; dam won 1-of-4 on grass scoring at 7.5F; her only other foal to race is 0-for-1 turfer Mr Again; you will get an improvement here for a 30% win trainer with maiden-2nd starters; had to like how she passed a few runners while today races over a Widener Turf course favoring closers.

Rose Quartz

Sire is 26-for-212 with 1st-turf starters; 33-for-271 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 4-for-16 dam (69K) who was superior on grass (3-for-6, 52K) producing 5 winners from 6 other foals to race; 1 of 2 runners to race on North American grass is a green winner (3-for-16 turfer Suzee Sunrise (87K).

Lady Kreesa

Sire is 0-for-33 with 1st-turf starters; 5-for-68 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 5-for-24 dam (94K) who went 1-for-8 on turf (44K) producing 2 winners from 4 other foals to race; 2 of 3 foals to race on N. American turf are green winners (top-earner 656K turfer King Kressa 6-for-16).

Brandini

Main Track Only entry has always had potential and keep waiting for her to fire back to her debut field-best Beyer speed figure; she just missed pre-rest in a BEL-1-turn Mile which she gets today if in; the trainer's BEL winner this meet was also following a freshening.

Kelly's Prize

MTO owns her lone exacta and best Beyer on turf; earned the show money at SAR on dirt; midpack-closing style is the concern; can she get up in time?; in the first 16 races on BEL dirt at 1 Mile stalkers ruled starters racing 2nd or 3rd at the 1st call won 9 times.

Shades of Indygo

MTO exits back-to-back Beyer Tops and that 401 Wet Tomlinson suggests she will do better next time on off going; she usually sits far back then makes one run; saw stalkers show the best winning profile in 2014 on BEL dirt at 1 Mile.

Pleasant Shaker

MTO shoots high here off 3 consecutive last-place finishes; latest was vs. the show runner who Beyered 48 in a next-out 16K-maiden-claiming then took her next 2 starts with 61-53 Beyers winning 16K and $12,500-claimers; the worktab suggests we take a wait and see approach following the 81-day absence.-Art Gropper