Belmont: Closer Looks for May 11, 2014

Race 1

Gingee

Although she has been stuck in the maiden ranks for quite some time, her last effort involved 2 moves and was one of her sharper performances; failed in her last attempt over the course but that distant try can be discounted in light of recent improvement; remains a difficult call.

Unafraid

Back to blinkers after getting into a traffic jam in her last venture; the latest training track workout was a personal best and perhaps that can enable her to handle the extension in distance today; worth some follow-up if the odds are appropriate.

Fancy 'n Flight

A steady check-earner who should appreciate the longer assignment today; the main drawback is the soft pace that seems more than likely in this event and that can compromise her chances of finally breaking through.

Alaskan Bird

Just on class relief, this filly should awaken against this caliber; did not break alertly from the fence in her last try at Keeneland and may find this surface more to her liking; lands into one of the lightest 20 grand maiden claimers of the meet.

Sugeily

Nothing at all to highlight thus far with constant thrashings at huge odds; perhaps the switch to the Belmont soil will help but still have major doubts that a sudden turnaround is in the cards; pass until further notice.

Pari Nath

Right behind Fancy'n Flight 2 starts back and she was up on the pace that day; understandably did not fire on the turnback thereafter and her best Beyers have been earned in routes; worth some trifecta inclusion based on his lifetime portfolio.

Kevin's Kool Kat

Commendable try at Penn National when finishing a clear second; she met tough rivals earlier in her career and, despite inexperience over this course, she has no excuse not to be in the mix against this group; certainly does not warrant favoritism again.

Music Maid

Faces claimers for only the second time and the race 2 back was a solid outing; certainly bred to handle the extension in distance, she should turn in a far better effort today than last month when losing plenty of energy prior to the break. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Perfect Danger

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; turf is a question, but his recent dirt form has been solid, and he owns the type of early speed that can be a key in a turf dash like this.

Waco

Have to wonder if his connections might be thinking about a longer event the next time around while using this race as a conditioner; third-place finisher from latest won next out at GP on 2/15 going 1m over turf vs. MSW rivals with an 81 Beyer.

Einstein Affair

Sire has won with 1 of 15 (7%) of his turf starters and dam was winless from two starts, and she didn't make a start over turf; not thrilled with what he's shown us in his first three starts, and the move to turf might not prove to be a key.

Bolt From the Blue

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 3 of 8 starts for 134k, including 0-for-2 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Electric Chant (3-22, 153k, including 1 of 12 turf starts for 96k); interesting to see Rosario get the call for his turf debut.

None Like Nolan

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 4 of 22 starts for 189k, including 2 of 10 North American turf starts for 102k; his career debut as a 2-year-old was strong and he shows up for Dogwood, Pletcher and Velazquez.

Rock Fall

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a multiple stakes winning dam who won 3 of 13 starts for 160k, including 0-for-1 over turf; 250k purchase is one of two signed on in here for Pletcher and Castellano has won with 41 of 119 (34%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Ferlin Husky

His three most recent races have been pretty decent performances, and that was since getting Lasix; he didn't run badly going 7f the first time he tried turf and this will be his first turf start with Lasix; winner from latest won next out at Pim on 4/26 going 6f vs. 40k OPC's with an 81 Beyer.

Eternal Bull

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 15 starts for 28k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to Hong Kong Superstar (5-21, 74k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 17k); Franco has won with 5 of 16 (31%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Secret Fortune

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 7% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this colt is a 1/2 to Star's Ablaze (1-14, 36k, including 1 of 9 turf starts for 30k) and Press the Limit (3-30, 125k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 37k). - Brian Pochman

Race 3

Declan's Warrior

Proven locally and proven fresh, colt has shown ability since Day One and he's won Grade 3 stakes; respect his speed but he has to prove he can go this far and he may have to be hard used to flee the rail; half bro Canonize did take one route in his career; could need a race.

I'm Steppin' It Up

Must respect his speed but he had had little success in the recent stakes; 2/5 winner repeated in the Grade 3 Razorback, then was out of the money in the Oaklawn 'Cap; Suns Out Guns Out exited 2/5 race to win a $100K optional; why not take a shot at glory in this small field?

Palace Malice

The winner of this race last year, Flat Out, was coming off a 5th in the same race this runner won last time; he loves this layout, runners in the company line were clear in last and he towers over these in the Beyer department; classy, he has natural speed but can sit and still perform; they will have to have their racing shoes on to beat this horse today.

Red Rifle

Fried in a duel in a race he had to need; place horse March 1 cashed next out in the G3 Ben Ali; would not be shocked if he is sent here; it would probably help the stablemate if he can soften up the other zip; hung wide in the local try on grass; needs very best. - Brian Mulligan

Race 4

Catholic Cowboy

Stretches back out to 1 Mile for the 1st time since June and only for the 2nd time in career; late kick at GP suggests today's 1-Mile distance is a welcomed addition; Main Track Only entry Saturday in a similar spot but at longer 1 Mile and 16ths; the runner-up finisher from last posted an 81 Beyer speed figure in a next-out PIM-starter allowance victory; getting a top New York rider for the 1st time adds to the appeal.

King of Broadway

Style is to race close to the lead which means Beeliner; obviously seeing him tire in 2 previous BEL-dirt Miles does not help the confidence level that he will stalk the speed then produce a big-late punch; 3 races ago when competing on a wet-race track produced a field-best Beyer speed figure.

Celebrator

Was screaming out for more yardage in his Florida races and gets it here; exits a best-last-race Beyer; the issue is he has not raced past 7F yet; sire went 2-for-4 in dirt routes; unraced dam produced Southdale who never raced on dirt but posted a 2-for-8 record in synthetic-surface routes.

Cap the Moment

Hard to ignore the 0-for-9 BEL dirt record; he defeated just 2 runners combined in his last 3 starts while stepping up off the NY-bred loss where he stalked the pace then came up empty in deep stretch; the 2-back winner and show finisher Beyered 92-91 in next-out BEL-100K stakes and 25K-claiming wins.

Indy's Illusion

Half of his 4 exactas occurred on wet-race tracks including his BEL-maiden breaker; like Woelf Den and King of Broadway off going would move him up; not easy to take the 0-for-10 fast record athough latest was a good effort in defeat; the 2-back turf winner repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 94 Beyer.

Woelf Den

3-year-old's 1st start vs. older rivals; his lone win was accompished in the mud rallying from the back; BEL-1-Mile dirt winners raced on or near the lead in 2014; defeated the 3-back show finisher who Beyered 67 in a next-out LRL-MSW win.

Beeliner

Projects as the lone speed noting in these BEL-1-turn Miles in 2014 racing close to the lead early has been the winning profile; cutting back a half furlong shoud hep the cause; posted a career-best Beyer 2-back when loose on the lead; keeps a sizzling-BEL rider for this; beat the March 2nd runner-up and show finishers they Beyered 70-62 in next-out AQU-$12,500-claiming and starter alw. wins; the one to catch and beat. - Art Gropper

Race 5

Daddy Loves Gold

Moves back to the lawn in her first start of the year for a barn that does solid work with its returnees and one of their top pilots gets the call; she's certainly been working of late like she's on her toes and she did run well first out so we know she's capable of firing off drills; worth a look.

Go West Marie

Tries the lawn for the initial time while stepping up to the allowance ranks off a weak effort on the main track across town; sire is 4 for 55 with his initial turf starters and the SP dam won her lone turf start; lone sib to try the green was 0 for 1 over the stuff.

Desert Bliss

Late runner makes her first start this year with a steady string of drills in tow for her return; statebred showed up with a huge late kick in a slow paced heat the last time she set foot on this course and she's never been out of the money in 13 tries over the local footing; picks up weight and the trip may be a little short of her best, but she figures to be coming hard in the lane.

Aquinnah

She's one of several with early foot in here and she'll make her local debut after wiring cheaper at Atlantic City a couple of weeks back; mare looks to prefer a shorter trip and there is other speed signed on for this but it's nice to see Lezcano take interest and she does figure to be in the thick of this one from the bell.

Ballerina Belle

Broke through when shades were added for her turf debut over the course last fall and she's been idle since; 4 year old will tackle winners for the initial time here, bit this barn does know how to bring them back ready and the number she earned in the maiden breaker fits quite well here; from a tracking spot, she's a contender.

Claiming Victory

Didn't factor with Gulfstream stakes runners last out but her prior off the pace score there fits well with this bunch; filly should get solid fractions in front of her and could well be set to move forward with the regression behind her; sharp Monmouth breeze suggests a much improved effort is on tap.

Sheza Heartbreaker

She's been away for 4 months since being unable to step with inner track routers at the level; 7 year old did run well on the green here last season and maybe the return to the footing helps, but her career slate has us limiting her use to underneath in exotics.

Ave's Halo

Got her tightener out of the way with the troubled run in the slop across town last out and now she'll return to her preferred footing; barn does nice work with its runners second back from the break so expect an improved effort out of this statebred and that score on this footing in last season's finale was good enough to win this.

Kiss Me Lola

Fresh 5 year old has only made it to post 7 times and she's done her better running off breaks so the improved recent worktab is a positive sign; mare ran well over the course around this time last year and prior to her last, her subsequent turf sprint tries were very good; giving her the nod to return running.

Runway Ready

Just missed at a short price behind a subsequent repeater in her Gulfstream finale and now she'll get Castellano for her return to a couple over which she won big around this time last year; filly has worked well for her return to the races and though her best game is speed, she showed last time that she can still be effective from tracking range; looms the main danger.

Mah Jong Maddnes

Mare makes her first start of the year here for a low profile outfit whose 2 runners here have both hit the board; statebred has been pretty good in open company heats and she certainly likes this course; she did run well to score over this sod in her first start of last season, so though this is short of her best trip, can't count her out.

Cavetto (GB)

Outside drawn filly returns to the green after offering little on synthetic footing at Keeneland; she did break her maiden sprinting on the Spa green first out last summer and she breezed well the other day for this; gets a top pilot and may get lost a bit in the wagering here.

Ultimate Shopper

MTO earned a huge number in a very impressive performance when unveiled here in the fall, but subsequently had trouble going on late with winners; she does have a right to be better with her first start of the year at Keeneland behind her and her pedigree suggests the wetter the better for her; one to catch and beat at a short price if the rains move this off the green. - Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Trippin' Along

Stakes placed mare has some respectable form sprinting over turf on her card to consider, and she's making her first start for a new barn that does well with horses right after a claim; third-place finisher from latest won next out at GP on 3/26 going 5f over turf vs. 25k OPC's with an 81 Beyer.

Believe in Charlie

Have to like what she did in her first two starts of the year sprinting over turf at Gulfstream Park and not going to be too hard on her for the sub par performance after a layoff in a tough spot at Keeneland in her most recent outing; she benefits from the services of Castellano once again today.

Vicki's Dancer

One of the sharpest performances of her career was run over this turf course and at today's distance, but her best effort appears to be short of the mark of what it will take to come out on top in this one; respect connections, but she looks like more of an outsider.

Munnings Sister

Multiple stakes winner will have the look of a top contender if this race has to be moved to the main track, and it doesn't hurt to see that she's gotten the job done in three of five starts over the main track here; have to respect the chances of this Fipke-homebred if she gets to go.

Coarsegold

She carries multiple stakes winning credentials with her, but she might have to hope that a few of these show up with less than their best to see her number posted on top after this one is run, and she is seeking her first 1-2 finish over this turf course.

Persnickity

In a race where it seems likely that the winner will earn a Beyer Speed Figure in the upper 80's or low 90's, this filly sports a career best figure of 74; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 5/3 going 1m vs. 40k OPC's with an 85 Beyer.

Bridgehampton

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters, and he's won with 6 of 141 (4%) starters trying turf for the first time, and dam was winless from two starts, and both of her starts were over turf; this is a tough spot for her first turf test and maybe her connections are hoping to see this race get moved to the main track; Ortiz has won with 10 of 18 (56%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Sounds of the City

A case can be made for her being sharper in turf dashes shorter than today's six-furlong distance, but this multiple stakes placed miss still commands her share of respect in this spot, and like to see John V. taking over for this.

Free as a Bird

Multiple stakes winner has been a tough one to keep out of the mix in her 11 turf starts and today's six-furlong distance seems to be right in her wheelhouse; she's run well over this turf course in the past and she sports some of the sharper recent form; obvious threat.

Madame Giry

She's another in here with multiple stakes wins to her credit, and feel that if this miss shows up with her 'A' game, she can prove to be very tough to deny; that said, when seeing that she's come up short as a favorite more than her fair share of times, she does have to be approached with some caution.

Lion D N A

She's one of two signed on in here MTO and this will be a good spot for her to try to bounce back from a couple of sub par performances if this race has to be taken off the turf; a high win percentage barn helps add further appeal. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

Six Queens

Lightly raced 5 year old makes her stakes debut while stretching out a panel off an even money score across town in her first start on this circuit; she did sit a nice trip off the speed in that one, and has in fact gotten quick clips to track in each of her 4 starts; she's done little wrong in her brief career but she'll spot these a serious class edge and will need to improve in order to prove a legitimate threat.

My Wandy's Girl

Mare was runner up at odds on in this heat's renewal when contested at Aqueduct last year; she got back on track in her first start of the year at Laurel, earning a career best number in the process and she's been working of late as if the time off following the heat has really served her well; capable of having another big say in here.

Parc Monceau

Ran away from N1X allowance runners at this trip across town last month and now she'll look to take on graded stakes runners for the initial time; barn has gotten off to a nice start here and this gray often gives a solid account of herself, but she looks to be in a tough spot today.

Toasting

Looked like she had turned the corner on this circuit last fall after a near miss at a big price in the G3 Comely across town but she's been able to beat only fellow Florida breds in 4 subsequent spins; filly is a restricted SW over the local main track and she will get weight from all of these, but she's also not the most consistent sort; siding with others on the win end.

Grace Hall

This G1 SW makes just her second start in 27 months while returning from 13 months on the shelf for this new barn; she's been working rather well for her return to the races in her first local spin and that G1 score did come the last time she tried one turn racing; can't imagine her not being better with this one behind her but the class she's kept makes it tough to chalk her up to needing one; consider.

Fiftyshadesofhay

Filly drew inside and got caught arguing the fractions before fading in the G1 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita a couple of months back; she's a multiple G1 SP, G2 SW router who runs well fresh and she'll get a top pilot for her first start here; love the way she's been working of late at Churchill for this and her running style suggests she'll handle this one turn trip just fine; she's the one they'll have to beat. - Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Grandeur (IRE)

Multiple graded stakes winner has done well for himself while traveling the globe and winning nine of 20 starts, and this looks like a favorable spot for his return to America; always have to be concerned that his lack of early speed will leave him with too much ground to cover late, but he commands his share of respect.

Imagining

He seems to be getting better with age and he's been at his best racing over this turf course in the past; there is a chance that the early pace in this race is going to be slow to develop, so the ability he's shown to adapt to any early pace scenario can help give him a substantial tactical advantage; he shows up for a barn that was won with 29 of 100 starters in graded stakes races run over turf the past three years.

Vertiformer

He's a stakes winner racing in France and he enters this race off of back-to-back graded stakes placings; 7-year-old earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in his latest start and that level of performance can play well in this spot; Bravo has won with 9 of 37 (24%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Frac Daddy

Two of his three starts over turf have been fine performances and the 103 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in securing a G3 victory in his latest outing is the best last race figure in this field; he's developed a nice level of consistency to his game after having the reputation of being an inconsistent type; like to see that he can get himself forwardly placed in what projects to be a paceless race.

Amira's Prince (IRE)

Multiple graded stakes winner has been very sharp in five of six starts since arriving in America, and like the idea of him getting over the Belmont Park turf course for the first time; feel that his best race can prove to be too much for the others in here to handle and it doesn't hurt to see him being reunited with Velazquez..

Real Solution

He's a G1 winner racing over turf via disqualification and he's shown the ability to dial up a performance that is strong enough to make him a threat for the top spot against these; the way that this barn has been going at this meeting, he's tough to ignore, and Castellano has won with 12 of 39 (31%) mounts for this outfit in 2014.

Lucayan (FR)

He's a G1 winner racing overseas, and even though he has just one win from nine starts since arriving in America, he's shown us that he has a good deal of ability while keeping some strong company; leaning toward others, but wouldn't consider him a shocker. - Brian Pochman

Race 10

Slew's Brew

Colt nearly blew up the tote at 58-1; maybe he wanted grass all along; 2 siblings tried grass to no avail, one banked nearly $80K; note show horse was over 3 clear; don't ignore.

Crescent Street

Street Boss 16 for 59 with first-time turfers; sire didn t run at 2, won debut at 3 with a 86 Beyer, took a Grade 1, never turfed; he has the two races to draw from and has shown some semblance of speed; place horse in last won in this league, 7th finisher was 2nd a head in a MSW and the winner repeated in an N1X here; stakes winning 5 for 21 dam earned nearly $200K, never turfed; 3 of 5 siblings won; several tried grass to no avail; could at least muddle the pace.

Manoffire

Forced to steady in Florida; 3 for 13 dam won nearly $130K, won twice on grass; lone half sis was out of the money 5 times; must pick it up.

Sole Train

Steadied two back in open company, could be more involved early with the blinks; expect better effort.

Pretty Nauty

Cosmonaut 0 for 7 with debuters, 1 for 7 with first-time turfers; Grade 3 winning sire earned over $1.2 million on turf, lost only start at 2; dam was unraced; one of 2 siblings won; that runner, Pretty Victory, took 2 of 33, lost thrice on grass; could need softer.

Spinning for Home

Had no shot in last after traveling wide early; 1 for 3 dam took a sprint, lost only turf out; 2 of 3 siblings won; one finished 2nd in the debut but was put up to win on grass; third new pilot takes reins; he's figuring it out.

A Marked Man

Look for more speed with the blinks here; SP 4 for 19 dam banked over $250K, won on grass once; lone half sis took 2 races, both dirt sprints; rates long look in all the slots.

Harbor King

Been given time since being eased; would be careful here.

Thurgood

Giant's Causeway about 11% with firsters in an 680-horse sample, about 9% with first-time turfers in a 570-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7 and took a Group 1 at 2 and was a turf monster; 4 for 15 dam earned over $140K, won thrice on grass; lone half sis Infinite Hope won on grass across the pond; note gap in published moves till 3/25.

The Frood Dude

Freud about 14% with first-time turfers in a 244-runner sample; sire was 2nd a half in debut at 2 at The Curragh at 6 furlongs on a yielding course, graduated there at 3 at about a mile, was Group 2 placed; don't be too harsh about last as he could not stand in the off going; SP 5 for 31 dam banked nearly $140K, won 4 times on grass; all 4 siblings won; 3 tried grass to no avail, one banked nearly $180K; needs a turn around.

Hard Rumor

Two excuses in the debut of the mud and fact he was forced to steady and at least he got a feel of the grass game in the 2013 closer; place horse in the debut graduated next out and then took a $75K optional; dam was unraced; several multiple race grass winners in the family including 10-time turf winner and over $200K earner High Cry; fresh and dangerous.

Sugar Gold

Beaten double digits every time; not good; several siblings tried grass to no avail; can't endorse.

Royal Posse

He was getting to the winner late; the hotter the pace the better for this runner; don't ignore.

Dreamin of Betty

Bet like a good thing with state-breds in last but he lost best chance when wide; dam was unraced; several winners in the family including G1 winner and near $500K earner Unbridled Command; Maragh got a chance to figure him out.

Forever Utopia

Over 3 clear in the last 2 efforts, should sit a nice trip if he gets a chance to suit up; show horse in last graduated next out at this level with a 59 Beyer; backers can point to fact full bro Ultimate Empire took 2 dirt routes; due.

Toohottoevenspeak

Got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one; the sibling to win did take 2 routes; will be tougher with a hotter pace. - Brian Mulligan