Belmont: Closer Looks for May 10, 2014

Race 1

Hackleton

Uncoupled Rice-trained pair entered here with the speedy Abra; in 5 Inner-Turf races at BEL contested May 3-7 three winners went gate-to-wire including the 6F winner May 3rd; aggressive placement for last dropping 1st off the claim exiting a best-last-race Beyer speed figure; figures to save ground stalking his barnmate.

I'm Stoked

Main Track Only entry beat the 2-back show runner who Beyered 98 in a next-out AQU-allowance win; the show finisher from last scored next out in an AQU-optional claimer with a 97 Beyer; he is 4-for-6 on fast-main tracks but has a lot to prove if the track comes up wet posting a career-low Beyer the only start of his career on a wet oval; the BEL main track at 6F in 2014 shows mostly winners stalking with some on the lead; dangerous if in.

Lofty Heart

Rallied strongly in latest but has shown better-gate speed like 2-back on grass; the Inner Turf early in the BEL meeting favored frontrunners so hopes not to get too far back early here; defeated the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 67 in a next-out GP-20K-maiden-claiming win.

Thomas Hill

12%-winning fresh trainer since 2013 with a runner who hasn't won since September when racing on a less-than-firm turf course; the barn's 2 BEL winners were both on grass while his Florida races were solid efforts in defeat; figures to race midpack then make one run.

Non Stop

Freshened up for the green off an odds-on dirt loss; there has always been a question whether he is better on dirt or turf; last time on the grass was a blowout win on the BEL-Widener course; he faded to finish 7th in his last Inner-Turf race.

Special Skills

The runner-up and show finishers from last Beyered 86-82 in next-out MTH-OPC wins; returns to the distance of his debut win on today's BEL Inner Turf but he's cleary been best at longer distances during career winning a 7.5F stakes; beat the 2-back show runner who Beyered 84 in a next-out MTH-63K-stakes win.

Abra

Defeated the show finisher from last who Beyered 81-77 in 2 next-out 35K-25K-claiming wins; with the Inner Turf favoring speed early in the meeting have to consider him a major player racing 1st the 1st call in 2 of his last 3 starts and 6 times in his last 9 attempts; pre-rest Beyer fits very well with these; solid 2nd right off the bench in his last Inner-Turf start in October; he is the one to catch and beat.

Awakino Cat

Defeated the runner-up finisher from last who Beyered 89 taking a GP-20K-claimer next out; has potential to do a lot better; his 102 field-best Beyer speed figure was posted August, 2009, winning a SAR-75K turf stakes stalking the pace at 5.5F. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Paris Sunshine

Caught a tiring course in her turf debut of a week ago; has flashed better early speed than some of her opponents today and perhaps can last for a share if the early fractions are ordinary in nature; difficult assessment.

Las Olas Azur

On the shelf since attending the pace briefly in her latest run; recent workout activity over the training track has shown some progression and she has lost to blowout winners in 2 of her 3 efforts; should improve via this class relief.

Lucky Seven

Respectable showing last month and today's escalation in price tag as not all that severe; lost to Warning Trackpower 2 back but did much of the yeoman pacesetting work that day; should be within range of the soft tempo that seems likely.

Fu Peggi Sue

Quit early in her comeback race last month but her best efforts by far have been over this Belmont surface (with today's rider in the irons); should move forward following that needed tightener and could prove the right exacta value play.

Lexsoya

Only one blemish on the record, an accomplishment in a field of this quality; her sire won a G3 and 344K while the dam scored in 2 of 8 appearances earning 48K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Mr Rico Is Valid

Firster was sired by G3 sprinter Disco Rico who banked 532K and whose offspring have won nearly 10 percent of their debuts; the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 214K earner Roman Candles.

Laguna My Way

Two sharp efforts thus far and she was a clear-cut second in the last pacesetting attempt; her sire own multiple G3s and 662K while the mom won 2 of 14 and 14K; this is her only foal to compete; obvious true contender despite the escalation.

Warning Trackpower

Beaten favorite should secure stalking position once again today and has been working at steady intervals since the last defeat; will benefit if there is a pace meltdown by Laguna My Way and should offer a much better price on the board this afternoon. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Mrs. Patmore

Elusive Quality about 15% with firsters in a 626-runner study; sire won debut going long in the slop for fun as an older horse, took Grade 3, banked over $400K; Group 2 winning 2 for 7 dam banked over $150K; this is her first to race; she looks fit enough.

Blisstering Strike

Curlin about 14% with firsters in a 117-runner study; sire didn't race at 2, won a ton Grade 1s as a 2-time Horse of the Year, banked over $10 million; Grade 3 placed 1 for 10 dam banked $50K; 6 of 7 siblings won; several banked 6 figures including SW and over $300K earner Cherokee Triangle; drills well spaced.

Brilliant Jewel

She has more speed than she just flashed and she may have just not been herself as she was washy in the 2014 opener; dam could run with a pair of Graded scores; several siblings banked 6 figures including G2 winner and near $400K earner Shaniko; this miss looks live.

Shayjolie

Indian Charlie about 16% of his debuters in a 650-horse sample; sire took debut at 2, won first 4 starts including the SA Derby; SP 6 for 14 dam banked nearly $150K; all 5 siblings won including G3 winner, 4 for 19 racer and over $800K earner Mythical Power; drills ideally spaced.

Equilateral

Arch about 11% with firsters in a 423-runner sample; Grade 1 winning sire graduated in juvenile debut, took 5 of 7, earned almost half a million; 1 for 6 dam took a route; lone half bro lost 4 times; could need experience.

Arc de Nua

Could have sulked after the poor start and note the show horse was well clear; dam was 0 for 3; 6 of 7 siblings won; one banked nearly $500K in Japan; another Just Thunder was SP, earned almost $200K; may need maiden claimers to show top talent. - Brian Mulligan

Race 4

Handsome Dennis

His lack of early speed can create some trouble for him but he's an interesting option to consider while making his first start for the Jacobson barn; if he performs the way he did just two starts back at Santa Anita, he'll be tough to tackle.

Kingston Jamaica (IRE)

He's G3 stakes placed racing in Ireland and there is a chance that we haven't seen the best of him in his three starts since arriving in America; he's taking a noticeable drop in class and Castellano has won with 41 of 119 (34%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Hot Sand

He has a strong turf pedigree and his dam won 9 of 26 turf starts for $1.2 million, but his connections have been willing to lose him at every turn; it does look like he's going to need to show up with his best effort to date if he's to have a shot at the top spot.

Dendrite

Tough to give him the nod in this spot while meeting up with winners for the first time after needing 26 starts to break his maiden; going to look for him to be involved in the running early on, but others figure to have more to offer through the lane.

Sonnyandpally

Like the idea of this gelding getting back over turf but it's tough to give him a favorable push for the top spot when looking at his 1-for-26 race record; this barn has been on fire, but still prefer to look in another direction.

Smokey Brown

He has some turf in his pedigree and his most recent race after a layoff can be viewed as being his sharpest performance to date, and the 76 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for that performance represents the best last race figure in this field.

Papa Freud

He's another in here with only one win next to his name after more than 20 starts, but he ran well after a layoff in his latest outing, and he has shown enough ability to suggest that he can get himself into the mix against these; runner up from latest won next out at Aqu on 4/27 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. starter alw. rivals with an 84 Beyer.

Prophet's Cat

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 6 of 46 starts for 146k, including 3 of 32 turf starts for 83k; he has to improve in his turf debut in order to contend, but it is interesting to see Rosario take the call.

Boss of Me

This will be a favorable spot for this gelding to make his second start in New York if this race has to be moved to the main track, and if he can remember what he did four starts back at Santa Anita, he can be very tough to tackle.

Lead Singer

He ran well in a few of his starts over turf as a 3-year-old, and if nothing else, he appears to be well meant while going dirt-to-turf and stretching out in distance for his second start back from a layoff; he looks like a decent fit at this 40k N2L claiming level. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

Sinistra

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam was winless from 16 starts, including one turf start; stakes placed gelding is a question over turf, but he appears to be in good form entering this race; he's certainly worth considering if this race has to be moved to the main track.

Edison

Not wild about Bernardini as a turf sire, but this colt was a sharp winner over the Gulfstream Park turf at second asking at a nice price; 950k purchase hails from a top barn and Castellano has won with 41 of 119 (34%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Giant Finish

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam was winless from four starts, including one turf start; Grade 3 stakes placed colt meets up with some solid competition in his first turf start, and his recent form hasn't been anywhere near his best.

Mr. Jenney

Like what he showed racing over turf as a 3-year-old, especially his two most recent races, and this colt is a 1/2 to multiple G1 winner Mrs. Lindsay (4-10, $1.2 million, including 1-for-1 over turf in North America for 621k); obvious threat.

Catholic Cowboy

There's some respectable dirt form lined up in this event, and even though a couple of his recent starts have been his best, he's probably going to need to top his previous best effort to see his number posted on top after this one is run.

Stableford (GB)

It doesn't look like he's run a bad race in his five starts racing overseas, and he's by a top turf sire and out of a dam who was G2 stakes placed racing overseas while winning 4 of 12 starts for 184k, including 3 of 7 North American turf starts for 145k; a number of his recent workouts look sharp.

Make a Decision

He's got a little bit of turf in his pedigree and he had his moments racing over turf as a 3-year-old; he has run well when fresh in the past and C.V. has won with 11 of 44 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2014; runner up from latest won next out at GP on 1/5 going 1 7/16m over turf with a 92 Beyer.

Mulheb

Nicely bred 5-year-old will have to be considered a top contender if this race has to be taken off the turf and he'll be making his first start for the Jacobson barn after a claim; Ortiz has won with 10 of 36 (28%) mounts for this outfit in 2014.

Iron Power

Three of his five starts over turf have been solid performances, and like to see what he did in his only route attempt over turf when finishing close behind today's rival Make a Decision; look for him to make a bid for the early lead with the seven-pound apprentice aboard. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

Private Tale

First part of the coupling should be better with his first start of the year behind him for a barn that moves them forward second off the break; local winner draws inside but doesn't have much early foot and hasn't been as good as he was early last year; prefer others on the win end.

Best Man

Adds shades for his first local start after taking a step back first time at the level across town; he'll get the services of another capable bug pilot here and maybe he's set to bounce back with the regression behind him, but he'll need to take a good step forward on the figure scale to threaten today.

Hannibal Lecter

He's been given a few months since the poor break did him in on the inner last out; fresh gelding did work well for this earlier in the week and the barn does well off this type of break; numbers he earned in his efforts later last year would put him in the mix here and he's fired off a break in the past; price should be right as he gets a huge rider switch.

Erik the Red

Got a solid tightener off the 3 month break in at Aqueduct last month; colt had run well over the inner track prior to that one and should be better with his last behind him for a barn that does well second time back; lightly raced colt hasn't been off the board in 6 career spins and can prove a threat in here.

Salutos Amigos

Barn's other half seeks his third straight score while tackling a tougher bunch than he ran past late in his Aqueduct finale; gelding was entered MTO yesterday; he'll be reunited with the pilot aboard for his big figure score in his first for this outfit and though this gelding didn't do much in his lone local start, the effort came against a pretty salty bunch; he's the one to beat if he stays in here.

Don Tito

Entered yesterday at Pimlico, this 7 year old also seeks his third straight score; he's a local winner who knows how to find the winner's circle and he never finds himself too far from the early leaders; if they choose to send him to the gate here he's a contender.

Favor Factor

Moves to dirt for his return from the short break after tiring in a troubled turf route last time; neither of his dirt starts was that much but he has been working well of late in Florida for his first start for a new outfit and a top pilot sticks.

Mewannarose

Returned from the break with a hard earned score on the inner 7 weeks ago and has been idle since; like the way he worked late last month and we know he likes to fire fresh; this is the toughest set he's faced to date, but wouldn't be surprised to see him get in the mix for a share.

Eastwood

Lightly raced colt hit the bench after getting beaten at odds on at the level here early last fall; his first couple of starts over the track were excellent and this barn usually has them ready to fire first time back from the break; expecting this guy to return running.

Sam Sparkle

Six year old didn't do much after a rough start at Aqueduct last out; he gets off the fence which should help and he does own some back numbers that could get him involved, but note that he hasn't found the winner's circle in 12 career spins over the local main track and he has settled for a lot of minor awards.

Confrontation

Offered plenty of promise in taking 3 straight on this circuit to begin his career last year but was run off his feet early in the Gulfstream comebacker and proved little match for a couple good ones while passing others late in that one; outside drawn gelding worked well last weekend for his local return from the freshening and he'd certainly appreciate any leftover moisture in the track; can't overlook. - Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Matterhorn

Off a career Beyer and he has the two races to draw from now; has been a bad actor at the gate breaking poorly in 2 of his 3 starts; one thing he will have to overcome is the fact he may have to be hard used from this post; a clear start and he could be a player here.

Fabulous Kid

Clever in the debut and was third in a $100,000 stakes in last at a mile when getting late; he got a nice feel of the surface in a work at Belmont a week ago and he catches a field pretty much devoid of speed; his sire was a Graded winner routing and is dam was a proven router; look for pilot to send with a theft on the agenda mentality.

Commissioner

Style demands hot pace and clear sailing; two wins to his credit but both were close; connections gave him a shot in the Fountain of Youth but he failed that test and his next two outings too; the blood is there for this runner to thrive, as half brother Laugh Track was Grade 1 place, successful in a Grade 3 and an earner of over $550,000; will be in the picture late if at all.

Tonalist

Beyers going in the right direction; has been wide in all 3 of his starts; colt ran well last time to be 2nd in a $75,000 optional fray and the winner of that race took the Fountain of Youth next out; 4th finisher took the Wood and the 7th finisher was best in a $75K optional next out; look for him to get a solid trip, maybe sitting directly off of Fabulous Kid early on; sitting on a big race.

Tapicero

Connections thought enough of him to open the career in the stakes; he does seem ambitiously placed; he finally graduated in his 5th start and then beat allowance runners when he came from second to last; would have liked to havfe seen some local activiity; would be careful here.

Our Caravan

Clear winner in the victories and the speed track at Gulfstream didn't do him any favors; equipped with the blinkers last time and they worked to perfection; sire was a Grade 1 winner routing, his dam was unraced, and his lone half bro won twice, both sprinting; trainer Michael Dilger spotted his horses great last year winning with 13 of his 47 starters and he's off to a good start here; looking at a faster pace here; he may have some adapting to do.

Irish You Well

In good hands but he has some things to prove; maidens beat winners now and again but it sure doesn t happen everyday and especially not in stakes; some nice horses like Gallant Man, Coastal, Slew o Gold and A.P. Indy have won the Peter Pan over the decades; last year Freedom Child was coming off a troubled Wood Memorial; he skipped the Kentucky Derby but broke cleanly in this race and went all the way with a 100 Beyer; must hurry. - Brian Mulligan

Race 10

V. E. Day

This is a very strong looking field of maidens, but have to respect what this colt has shown in his first two starts going 1 1/8m over the GP turf course, and he's by a top turf sire; he deserves a spot on the long list of contenders in here.

Day Six

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; a couple of his workouts hint at ability but this looks like a tough spot to debut one.

Private Relations

He took a step in the right direction at second asking and this colt is another in here who is by a strong turf sire; it is worth noting the presence of Rosario aboard another in here, but there's still plenty of potential for better in this direction.

Lord Trondor

He sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, and he earned that figure in his career debut; 525k purchase has top connnections behind him and Castellano has won with 41 of 119 (34%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Brilliant Command

The lack of early speed he's shown is a concern, but have to respect the performance he showed up with in his career debut; he's a 1/2 to Nottingham Forest (4-13, 119k, including 2 of 6 turf starts for 68k); runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 9/20 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with an 86 Beyer.

Peaceful Talk

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his turf starters and dam was winless from two starts; he took a step in the right direction at second asking, but that was against 40k MCL's, and this is a tough spot for his first turf start.

Hurricane Turn

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 7 of 23 starts for 263k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to Fast Bobbi J (4-25, 158k, including 2 of 7 turf starts for 41k); he's already shown ability and he goes out for a top turf barn.

Pacific

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal from a G2 winning dam who won 5 of 13 starts for 272k, and she didn't make a turf start; this has to be considered a tough assignment for a firster, but this colt cost $1.8 million, and it is Pletcher.

All My Trails

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 12% of his turf starters, and stakes winning dam won 8 of 33 starts for 328k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 54k; this colt is a 1/2 to Double Shotgun (9-47, 135k, including 6 of 30 turf starts for 100k); Anstu-owned colt faces a tough test in his career debut.

Dr. Abramson

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam won once from three starts for 14k, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to Silver Hustler (2-17, 114k, including 1 of 12 turf starts for 63k); it looks like Rosario opted to pilot another in here, but this barn does well with young/lightly raced runners in route races.

Lunar Tales

He was sharp sprinting over the Gulfstream Park turf course in his career debut and the third-place finisher from that race returned to win next out at Wo on 4/26 going 7f vs. MSW rivals with an 86 Beyer; look for him to break running in an attempt to take them the distance.

Knight of Valor

He can benefit from having a race behind him and this colt is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Jungle Fighter (8-26, 355k, including 5 of 16 turf starts for 250k) and multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Commons (5-22, 866k, including 4 of 18 turf starts for 712k); winner from debut won next out at GP on 5/3 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with a 93 Beyer.

Social Affair

Half-brother to G1 winner Dancing Forever (5-22, 901k over turf) has looked okay in his first three starts, but he will find himself in against a tough group if he draws in off the AE list.

Better Man

There are a few horses signed on in this spot who have shown the ability to run well over dirt, but this gelding ran well enough in his belated career debut to merit consideration in this spot; he's out of a G3 winning dam who won 3 of 14 starts for 191k.

Aslan

Certainly can't count out the possibility of an improved performance as he gets ready to make his first start since early August and his first start as a 3-year-old, but an improved performance is a must if he's to threaten the top contenders in here.

Distant Thoughts

Like to see the improvement he demonstrated at second asking while making his dirt debut and he has a little bit of early speed to help get himself forwardly placed soon after the start; he can have a say in the outcome if this event has to be moved to the main track. - Brian Pochman