Belmont: Closer Looks for June 28, 2014

Race 1

Candir

A slow getaway prevented him from earning a better share in his maiden voyage last month; subsequent work tab is very strong; his undefeated sire won multiple G1s and 749K; the dam won 2 of 12 and 76K; sib to 1.01 million earner Al Khali.

Flat Jack

Interesting turnback possibility especially with the blinker addition; moved into swift internal fractions while favored at Delaware and this particular distance may prove his ideal; ran well in some above average races at Gulfstream; sole start here was a game second.

Indian Rain Dance

Sharp first try at the course and distance but against claimers and when getting away unpressured; his sire won a G3 and 176K while the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 217K earner Bravo Romeo.

Wise Move

Newcomer hails from multiple G1 star Lemon Drop Kid who banked 3.24 million and whose offspring have won 48 out of 548 debuts; the dam won 1 of 8 and 11K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Round

Ran deceptively well in his first effort last season when just missing the place; his sire won a G1 and 480K while the dam won 1 of 4 attempts and 30K; winning siblings include 158K bankroller Apex.

Pecorino

Tough beat for the chalk players when losing by inches at the shore; the one who narrowly beat him that day came back to score easily; draws a comfortable attack post and reverts to the original rider; much to like except for the certain short price.

Beau Knows

Firster hails from Birdstone, a multiple G1 winner on the NYRA circuit who netted 1.57 million (his progeny have won 21 out of 251 initial starts); the dam won 2 of 11 and 56K; sib to 324K earner Rockport Harbor; drilled today's distance on 6/2.-Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Discreet Malena

The blinker addition earlier this month helped her cause as did the soft half-mile fraction in that event; not that much pace opposition on view in this test and the latest blowout suggests she is at the top of her game; worth following up.

Hot On Ice

Could not match strides with today's rail runner last time out but perhaps the sloppy condition was the reason; gets a huge weight shift in her favor now and may be able to turn the tables with the new equipment.

Naughty Matilda

Tries this main oval for the first time after flashing speed in several of her starts; takes a needed drop and the blinker removal may afford her a chance to relax in the early stages; could obtain ideal early position if the inside pair hook up.

Chichita

Not much accomplished thus far other than a remote showing 2 back; drops to a realistic level yet cannot be endorsed for the top spot until more enthusiasm is shown; latest workout does not inspire much.

Home to Carrowkeel

Newcomer hails from multiple G1 winner Big Brown who notched 3.61 million and whose offspring have won 12 percent of their debuts; the dam won 4 of 22 and 113K; winning siblings include 257K earner Please Impress.

Untiltherewasyou

Displayed some prompting speed in her initial try over the lawn; see the previous runner for same sire information; the dam won 3 of 4 and 52K; among the winning siblings is 479K earner Gotaghostofachance.

Moon Map

In for a tag for only the second time in her career; best efforts by far have been over a fast track (the expected course condition today); may rally in time for a share if a prolonged duel to her inside unfolds.

Desert Valentine

Beginner hails from Wild Desert who won the Queen's Plate and 1.04 million; his progeny, however, are zero for 59 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 1 of 3 and 28K; among the winning siblings is 52K earner Brass Note.

Tordita

Back to the main oval where she was a clear-cut second in the race 2 back; the trainer/jockey combination has established an outstanding record and the filly should be able to stay within striking range from this clear outside slot.-Jim Kachulis

Race 4

House Rules

Multiple graded stakes placed filly can improve over her sixth-place finish in the Acorn while making her second start back from a layoff, but unless Untapable runs a race that is wildly off form, the only thing she can hope for is a runner-up finish.

Untapable

Kentucky Oaks winner is leading the 3-year-old filly division by a wide margin, and as long as she shows up and runs her race, she'll leave these behind to battle it out over the place prize; have to respect the level she's taken her game to and just enjoy how strong of a 3-year-old filly she's become; Velazquez takes over for Napravnik who is currently recovering from a shoulder injury.

Princess Violet

New York-bred miss has done little wrong from three starts, but she finds herself in against Untapable for her first start in a stakes; she does appear to be the dominant early speed and she's eligible to hang on for the place prize; Ortiz has won with 13 of 29 (45%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

America

Grade 2 stakes placed miss sports solid dirt form, but she's been beaten by today's rivals Stopchargingmaria and House Rules in her two most recent races, and now she hooks up with Untapable; this has to be considered a very tough assignment for her.

Aqua Regia

She has the early speed to get herself involved in the running through the opening stages, but she's yet to produce a performance that is up to the level of these; maybe she can push Princess Violet a little bit early on, but she's going to find it difficult to keep up late.

Stopchargingmaria

She carries multiple graded stakes winning credentials with her and she was a game winner of the Black-Eyed Susan in her latest outing, but like the others in here, she's just hoping to land a runner-up finish with Untapable signed on; Castellano has won with 11 of 36 (31%) mounts for this barn in 2014.-Brian Pochman

Race 5

Acrostic

She ran well over turf at second asking and she had every right to need her latest race after having to take a year off; this is a barn that does some of their better work with turf starters and like to see Castellano aboard again.

Lifeguard On Duty

Zanjero has been a poor influence as a turf sire, but this miss did take a step in the right direction in her turf debut when last seen; her most recent workout looks sharp, and this has to be considered a favorable spot for her first start of 2014.

Laghazirella Beach

She's going to need to improve over what she's shown so far, but she only has four starts behind her, so improvement isn't out of the question, and she's by a solid turf sire and out of a dam who won 5 of 18 turf starts for 177k.

Kevin's Kool Kat

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won 4 of 22 starts for 122k, including 3 of 12 turf starts for 90k; maybe the move to turf can help this filly, but it's tough to back her with the win dollar when looking at her 16-0-8-2 race record.

Winner's Legacy

If you can excuse her two most recent starts, she has the look of a strong contender, and it looks like she's taking a well meant drop in class for this; runner up from latest won next out here on 5/26 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 78 Beyer.

Elissa Town

She showed a little something in her first few career starts over turf, and if she can rediscover that form, she can have a say in the outcome against these; obviously her recent form is a concern, but not ready to count her out of it just yet.

Coralita

She has turf form on her card that is in the neighborhood of what it might take to win this, and she might be set to give a good account of herself while going sprint-to-route for her second start after a layoff.

Shaikha

Like Kevin's Kool Kat, she hasn't been shy about settling for runner-up finishes to this point in her career, but she's clearly fast enough to run with these and she looks like she can prove to be a tough one to keep out of the mix.

Notional Girl

Her three most recent starts haven't been her best and she's seeking her first top-three finish; she's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 5 of 20 turf starts for 364k, but this miss needs to find a way to show more if she's to contend.-Brian Pochman

Race 6

Lady's Lunar Luck

Ran well to get third money in a statebred stake at a slightly shorter trip in her first start in nearly 5 months; mare does own some numbers that fit well in this spot and she'll switch to a top pilot for her return to open company; she'll pick up weight for this but worked sharply earlier in the month and looms a big threat on the stretchout.

Love the Breeding

MTO looks to make her first start off the claim by an outfit that has done well of late with this type; she'll catch a mostly turf meant bunch if the rains allow her to go in this spot, but note that she hasn't run so well over the wet going; still, in her current form she must be considered a player if she gets to go.

Equilateral

Lightly raced sophomore impressed in breaking her maiden first out in the mud over a runner up who return to score with a 79 Beyer; she stretched out reasonably well while tackling winners for the first time and returned to work a sharp half mile here last week; expect they'll have her to beat if this gets rained off.

Fingers Crossed

Tries the local lawn for the fourth time while returning from the freshening after a rough trip in her local return; filly hasn't done much of anything since stepping in with winners late last fall but she did break her maiden second time over the course; looks to have gotten in a solid final breeze last week for her return for a barn that does well off this type of break.

Lawn Party

Pletcher filly wasn't good enough to go with stakes fillies in her local course debut following a couple of sharp surface efforts out of town; she packs a nice late kick when on her game and pace doesn't appear to have a big impact on this lightly raced, pricey gal; contender tackles older for the initial time here.

Hit Squad

Beat cheaper as the chalk in her local debut here last month and now she'll give the allowance ranks a shot; filly isn't the most consistent sort and don't know that even with a recent win in here she's good enough to step with these; have to side against the repeat.

Fashion Fund (GB)

Late runner gets an added panel today after rallying to get within a length of a couple of next out winners (Beyers of 82 and 8, respectively) and the gal who won that heat did return to beat stakes runners; she stretched her legs with an easy half mile last weekend for a patient outfit and her top pilot takes the return call; she may need to be asked for a little more early in a field without much early lick, but we'll give her the nod to get them today.

Cushion (GB)

Import will make her first start of the year for a new outfit that excels with this type; she'll get Lasix here and did run pretty well trying longer trips overseas; she didn't run particularly well off the break to begin last season and her recent breezes aren't much but expect to see her kick in the lane.

Indian Starlight

Mare returns from a couple of months on the shelf for a new outfit and her last 2 morning moves suggest she's on her toes to tackle the local sod again; she looked pretty good from a wide spot while trying the level at Keeneland last out and she has run well over this course in the past; can get in the mix for a share.

Seda Francesa (ARG)

Didn't get much pace to track in her local 10 panel debut while trying winners for the first time last month, but she did offer a solid kick to get second money; lightly raced 4 year old impressed from off the pace in Florida first time out and maybe the slight cut back today benefits her; could prove the main danger.

Abbey Street

It's been a while since her maiden score and her first crack over the local sod last month wasn't anything special; filly offers some late run from time to time but is stuck in the outside slot for her return to the races and looks to have her work cut out for her at this trip.-Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Capo Bastone

Reunites with Johnny V who is 1-for-5 piloting him during career; drops in class after 8 consecutive graded-stakes starts; since his upset in the Grade1 King's Bishop last summer at SAR he is 4-0-0-0; deepest of closers needs a pace meltdown to score; for the 1st time in career will put blinkers on which is a 23%-win move from the trainer; the workout after the Met Mile loss was not very enticing.

Sailmate

Because of his last win he gets a negative 3-pound weight swing off his 3-back loss to Big Business; like BB he loves BEL dirt; his only 2 losses here were both in stakes events; hopes for a pace metldown in a field lacking a hot pace; projects to save ground then make one run.

Stephanoatsee

Same owner/different trainer for this; 2012 was his last win and that was a 2-turn test at longer which suggests 1 Mile may be too short to win it all; was troubled in latest while wish the barn was better than 12% winners 2nd time off the bench; the 2-back runner-up finisher won his next 3 races including 2 Grade 3s Beyering 97-97-92.

Big Business

Other than Pinball there is not much other gate speed here which could leave him loose on the lead and a lot more dangerous; horse for the course with 4 wins here and his only BEL dirt losses both were vs. stakes competition; 2-back winner over Sailmate; he gets a positive 3-pound weight swing for this; nearly upset fresh and races for a high-percentage 2nd-off-the bench barn; is the one to beat.

Perilous Indian

Good race same owner/different trainer in last finishing evenly in Philly; his career-best Beyer was posted 3-back in the mud where he beat the runner-up finisher who Beyered 91 in a next-out LRL-optional-claiming win; is doing the rain dance for this; others appeal more on a fast track.

Pinball

Likes to race on or near the lead adding blinkers gives the indication they want him to show better gate speed for this; rematches with the other speed horse here Big Business who easily handled him after he broke 11th; was on the lead 2-back on grass then was rallied past by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 99 in a next-out BEL-125K-stakes win.

Irsaal

50 days since drilling a best-last-race Beyer in the mud; is best on wet tracks winning his last 2 including 2-back where defeating the show finisher who posted 88-85 speed figures in his 2 next-out LRL-OPC wins; the January winner repeated in an AQU-starter alw. with a 96 Beyer; his workouts for this have been superb racing for a high-percentage fresh trainer; would be hard to handle here if able to repeat latest.-Art Gropper

Race 8

Pablo Del Monte

Grade 1 stakes placed colt will find himself in a good spot if this race has to be moved to the main track, and really his only concern might be getting involved in an early pace dispute with Glacken Too; Velazquez has won with 3 of 6 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Canzoni

He's run well in all three of his turf starts and this May foal is still eligible to have more to show us; it's going to take his sharpest performance to date to beat this field, but that possibility exists; Castellano has won with 11 of 36 (31%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Long On Value

He enters this race fresh off of a G3 stakes placing at Arlington Park, but this inexpensive yearling purchase might find this bunch to be even tougher to tackle; a strong turf barn and a top turf rider help give him appeal, but going to lean toward others.

So Lonesome

Two of his three starts over turf have been sharp winning performances and have to respect the way that he dialed it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in his first start back from a layoff in his latest outing; that said, it might be worth noting the presence of Rosario aboard another in here.

Tiger Bourbon

His overall form has been solid, but he's yet to show us that he can compete at the same level as a number of today's rivals; this looks like it's going to prove to be a difficult test for him.

Green Mask

He took his game to another level in his turf debut in his latest outing while securing a stakes win, and it looks like the extra furlong he gets today is well within his range; he's one of two very live looking horses signed on in this spot for Clement.

Cabo Cat

Late running type has developed a nice level of consistency to his game and he's G3 stakes placed racing over the Gulfstream Park turf course; he wasn't a match for today's rival Green Mask in his latest start, but he merits plenty of respect in here.

Bashart

He ran some very nice races over turf as a 2-year-old, and he even captured a G2 victory, and when seeing that his only poor performance was in the BC Juv. Turf without Lasix, it's easy to forgive that start; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Tam on 3/8 going 1m over turf with an 86 Beyer; Rosario has won with 7 of 27 (26%) mounts for this barn at the current stand.

Glacken Too

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 24 starts for 58k, and she didn't make a turf start; have to respect the form that he's displayed sprinting on dirt, but turf and distance are concerns, and this is a very tough assignment for his first turf start.-Brian Pochman

Race 9

Tannery (IRE)

Found herself up with the pacesetter through tepid fractions when making her first start of the season at Monmouth and was able to beat that softer bunch at a trip much shorter than she prefers; G2 SW at this 10 panel trip has had time to get over the effort and this outfit boasts some sharp numbers with its runners going second back from the break; she'll get a switch to Castellano for this but figures to revert to her one run tactics from this draw and that won't help her in a field without a lot of early foot; she spots them weight but packs a nice kick when right and must be considered a big threat in the lane, especially if the rains come.

Riposte (GB)

Improving filly earned a career best number over a heavy local course while besting G2 types in her local debut; a top pilot who was aboard last time sticks with her but don't know that she'll be able to make the lead without working harder this time; she does like a course with some give in it so maybe similar conditions would help; contender.

Inimitable Romanee

New York bred tries a better bunch here after running down marathoners at 12 panels over the Keeneland lawn in the spring; she did get quite good after returning for her 6 year old campaign, but she catches a tough bunch here and her big effort in Florida did come fresh; consider.

Viva Rafaela (BRZ)

She's got some early foot and that should help as she returns from the freshening; don't know that she's as good as some of these and the gal drawn to her immediate inside defeated her in each of her last 2 starts, but the lead does figure to be hers for the taking so they'll probably have to get past her to win.

Scampering

It's been nearly 15 months since this gal has seen the winner's circle but she has been close against cheaper of late; she ran well through a quick final fraction at a shorter trip last time and maybe that suits her on the stretchout as the pace in front of her doesn't figure to be very quick, but this bunch may prove to be a little too much for her to handle.

Gathering

Outside drawn mare couldn't stay with the gal drawn to her inside here 2 back over the course before returning to run well with a cheaper set last time; she's yet to win past 9 panels and she's catching a bunch that excel going long; looks to have a tough task ahead of her in this spot.-Steve Grabowski

Race 10

I Got Id

2 win riders side with Orino and Storm today; 1-of-2 three-years old against older; he displayed immediate talent by winning his debut over the show finisher who posted a 61 Beyer speed figure in a next-out BEL-MSW win; only has 3 starts so upside is unlimited; got to the lead with soft-early fractions then kept on going but has Glowing Ember and Danceteria both expected to show outstanding gate speed; it could land him with a great trip stalking while saving ground; the one to beat.

Danceteria

Favored then faded in a key race with Glowing Ember the one to catch today; the 7th and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 83-69 in next-out BEL-50K-20K-claiming wins; hopes to carry his speed longer 2nd time off the bench; the 2-back winner captured his next pair with 90-89 speed figures taking an AQU-allowance and BEL optional-claimer.

Sneaky Kitten

For the 1st time in career he will put blinkers on which is a high-win percentage angle for his trainer; his 1st race of 2014 was a rock-solid exacta finish at longer; 12 minor awards coming into this event on a 13-race losing skid last winning on the lead November, 2012, on a wet-AQU-turf course at longer; defeated the 3-back show finisher who captured a BEL-OPC next out with an 85 Beyer.

Glowing Ember

The win rider from last sides with Storm for this; projects as the main speed here with Danceteria likely pressing the pace hard from the inside and have a few outside that also want the front; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 76 in a next-out AQU-OPC win; know him early then hopes to hang on late.

Campogiovanni

Needed 9F to win latest but he's also won at shorter than today's distance; his victory 34 days ago looks better since the show finisher Beyered 73 in a next-out BEL-100K stakes win; clearly gets a hot pace flow to rally into for this but can he avenge the losses 2 and 3 back while getting up in time; leaning elsewhere.

Why Not Whiskey

Winless since SAR last summer at longer posting a career-best Beyer that day; deep closer was no match for similar rivals 2-back including the winner who Beyered 90-89 in 2 next-out wins; his 2-time win rider sides with Captain Gaughen for this.

Piscesbymoonlight

Sire is 27-for-277 (10%) with 1st-turf starters; stakes-winning dam (6-for-24, 228K) did not race on grass; she produced 3 winners from 5 other foals to race; 2 foals to race on grass are 0-for-4 combined; projects to chase the inside speed; view as a pace presence for part.

Status of Forces

Both wins at longer so ultimately may need more yardage to see best form; finished 7th in his 1st race off the long layoff in 2013 and that same fresh scenario is with us today; wide trip from an outside draw when last seen; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 90-89-85 in 3 next-out alw.-OPC wins; a good sign that the win rider stays right here but will be taking a wait and see approach.

Captain Gaughen

The win rider had other options but remains; has to get by Sneaky Kitten where his rally and career-best Beyer wasn't good enough to land in the exacta; there's a bounce chance here posting a new Top following more than a 6-month layoff; gets a positive 2-pound weight swing off his 2-back win when defeating Campogiovanni.

Majestic Raffy

The winner and show finisher from last both Beyered 88 in next-out PRX-starter handicap and BEL-25K-claiming wins; 31%-winning 1st-off-the-claim trainer automatically makes him a contender for win honors; 1st-time Ortiz winning 28% for the trainer is another plus; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 97 in a next-out AQU-OPC win; has done some of his best work on SAR green; seems to be rounding nicely into form for that upcoming meet.

Orino

Was outfinished by this group in his 1st race following longer-than a 6-month layoff; the middle move suggests he wanted less distance and shortens up a half furlong for this; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-100K stakes with a 94 speed figure; his career-best Beyer was on SAR Inner green where he was DQd from a stakes win; new rider seemingly had other options but lands here.

Breathaway

Since the 4-back sprint win in October he has shown nothing making him an outsider for this; the October-BEL win rider sides with Sneaky Kitten today while the rider from last moves to Glowing Ember; best races are when stalking the speed but did not display any early zip in recent races.

Storm

Likes to be forwardly placed envisioning him sitting just outside Glowing Ember then getting 1st run on the closers; is 2-for-2 on the green and the win rider had other options but stays; being drawn widest is the lone drawback noting the 1-post win in last when defeating the show finisher who Beyered 78 in a next-out BEL alw. win.

Goodtolook

Main Track Only entry is doing the rain dance; his field-best Beyer was accomplished loose on the lead at GP in January on a sloppy race track; mixed reviews off recent form posting his best turf Beyer 2 back then came right back to post his lowest number since 2012 for last.

Saturday Appeal

Is 2-for-11 with blinkers off which is apparently the reason for his recent form turnaround posting a best-last-race Beyer; snapped a 13-race losing skid in last; MTO like Goodtolook posted his career-best Beyer when loose on the lead over a wet track.-Art Gropper