Belmont: Closer Looks for June 26, 2014

Race 1

Indy Sea

Got his second win in his latest on the lawn and he seems happy to be running over dirt so the surface switch isn't a big concern; horse that finished ninth in his latest came back to win a $16K n/w/2 with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure June 18; there is a ton of speed in this field and he can stalk and rally so he might be able to get up in time to work his way into the exotics. his chances certainly improve if it comes up wet.

Silver Morgan

Lone try over this track was a good one at this level two back and he came back with another solid effort at Parx; horse that won the race won an $8K starter at Prx with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure in his next start; he wants to be involved early but if Rosario can keep him out of what could be an all-out duel he could hang around long enough to pick up a slice.

Glickman

He's been away for a long time but the last horse Clement brought back from a 2-year layoff finished a close second; the past five years he is just 6 percent with horses coming back from a layoff of a year or more, but this guy has a solid work pattern and just about any of his previous races would win this; the pick.

Sense of Peace

His connections may have gotten a little carried away following his sharp win in a $25K n/w/2 coming off a layoff but they are back to reality after he got waxed trying first-level allowance horses in his latest; he obviously fits better here and the only complaint is like a few in here he wants to have his head in front early; hard to see him lasting all the way with all of the other speed signed on so we're going to look elsewhere.

Carolinian

3-year-old may have bounced after running a big race following a layoff and it wouldn't be surprising to see him rebound here with Castellano keeping the faith; he's lightly raced so maybe his talented jock can get him to settle into a stalking position; first time for a tag and the past five years Contessa has an 18 percent strike rate with horses running for a price the first time; looks like a major piece of a difficult puzzle.

Double Gold

Not sure where the 82 Beyer Speed Figure came from when he finished third in the $100K NY Stallion Stakes in his first start for Miranda but it was hard to see coming and didn't come close to it in his next two; blinkers go on, which possibly means more speed, and this isn't the race you want that happening; prefer others. - Randy Goulding

Race 2

Ribbon Cutter

Makes her belated 2014 debut after a wide getaway race on the turf last fall; her sire won multiple G3 stakes and 413K; the dam won 1 of 2 and 36K; this is her only foal to compete; slight, but steady, progression to the workout tab.

Candy Portena

No match for Predicate earlier this month but she switches to apprentice handling; even if she gets into gear at an earlier point today, she will likely have to settle for minor spoils as the pace profile in this race appears to be on the sosft side.

Dragonberry

Newcomer has been breezing very well; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 1.31 million (offspring of Unbridled's Song have won 123 out of 874 debuts); the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 25K earner Hulako; respect.

Brilliant Jewel

Has failed as the public choice 5 of 6 times and there are definite gaps in the profile; may not have cared for the muddy conditions in her last attempt yet still does not warrant odds-on in our book considering the presence of the newcomer.

Street Smoke

Never got untracked at Gulfstream although the last effort involved trouble; her sire won multiple G1 sprints and 831K while the mom won 2 of 14 and 120K; among the winning siblings is 70K earner Prophesy.

Ridingwiththedevil

Today marks her first start outside of California but she has been training moderately for this occasion; will prove a factor if able to equal or surpass the Beyer levels she achieved last season; bound to be a fairly short price once again and therefore a wait and see betting approach is advised.

Predicate

Enjoyed a nice trip in the last placing and the race itself was above average in quality; has been granted many chances though and is facing some puzzling opponents this afternoon; needs perfectly timed move by Ortiz in order to end the drought. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Son of a General

It has been over a year since he won a race but it isn't like he hasn't been competitive; he's coming off a couple of solid efforts in his first two starts over this surface and the latest came at this level; horse that won the race just missed in a $50K claimer here last Sat.; five wins at the distance so he won't mind the added half furlong and he should have an honest pace to work with; prefer others for the top spot but can see him working his way into the exotics.

Golden Itiz

First from Jacobson got stuck behind a slow pace in the Majestic Prince when he was overmatched by last year's Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday; he wants more distance than he was getting in his latest when he broke in the air and lost as the heavy chalk; no wins on dirt is a concern but his second in his first start in NY was good enough to win this and he could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle; the pick.

Joan's Choice

Second part of the Jacobson-trained entry isn't the most consistent horse around but he is certainly capable of winning this if he brings his best stuff; nice win in his latest and the main concern is that he hasn't performed particularly well over this surface in five tries; we like his stablemate more but this is a pretty nice 2 for 1 proposition and if Golden Itiz doesn''t fire he could bail him out.

Battle Hardened

Grade 3 winner will appreciate the easier company after getting waxed in a $65K optional claimer at Delware; horse that won the race by over 11 lengths romped again with a 104 Beyer in Delaware June 16; blinkers go on and the past five years Maker has a 20 percent strike rate with horses wearing them for the first time; he's won on four different tracks, has worked smartly over this surface, and should get a nice trip from a stalking position; contender.

Matt and Jesse

5-year-old will need to pick up his game to compete with these; he wasn't much of a factor in his latest in a $20K starter and it isn't encouraging that he could only finish third in a straight $20K claimer two back; at least he's headed in the right direction after never getting involved in Son of a General's race May 7; nonetheless, we're still going to pass.

North Ocean

Easy to forgive him for not being able to keep up to Grade 2 winner Vijack two back and the horse that finished second won the $98K Diablo in his next start here May 14; not sure what went wrong in his latest, though, as he was in a good spot on the turn but faded badly; claimed out of the race and the past five years Kenneally has an 18 percent strike rate running them back the first time; not a sign of confidence that he's dropping his value by over $20K, though; could go either way.

Beeliner

4-year-old is trying to find his level as an older horse and he might need cheaper; nice win over $25K conditional claimers three back but he couldn't carry his speed the whole way when he was loose on the lead at this level two back; this is a return to reality after trying first-level allowance horses in his latest but there is other potential speed in the field and he should be under the run right from the start; prefer others. - Randy Goulding

Race 5

Cay to Pomeroy

Reunites with the 2-back win rider while coupled today with Stopthefever; the last 5 times he's made the lead at the 1st call 4 times he's found the winner's circle; a May, 2012, 5F-debut winner on BEL dirt; posted quick-early fractiions in latest FL win defeating the runner-up finisher who posted an 83 Beyer speed figure in his next-out FL-allowance win; has had just 1 prior start from the rail during career which was a distant-4th-place finish; is the one to catch and beat.

Hope Still Springs

Expected more from last noting his last win was a fresh victory; was re-claimed by this trainer (34% win angle) following his lowest Beyer ine one year; the runner-up and show finishers from last posted 92-83 speed figures in next-out PEN-optional-claiming and DEL-waiver-claiming wins.

Head Heart Hoof

Drops below the Feb. claiming price; projects to be a pace challenger for Cay to Pomeroy; 6 wet-track wins so not sure we can blame the slop for latest dull effort beating one runner home when defeated by 2 of these; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 98-84 in 2 next-out AQU-optional-claiming wins; know him early then hopes to hang on late.

Stopthefever

Does not come ouf of a strong event as a big dropper won it; stalked the pace in latest when claimed off his lowest Beyer since March; curious that he is the lesser part of a coupled entry with Cay to Pomeroy noting they both have similar-upclose racing styles.

B Shanny

Capable on best day dropping today far below the original purchase price; last was disappointing because he has raced well right off the bench in the past including the June, 2013, field-best Beyer speed figure performance at today's distance on BEL fast dirt; the trainer yields a super 29% winners with runners 2nd time following a 45-180-day absence; the 2-back winner repeated in a PIM-OPC with a 95 Beyer; the pick.

Indy Tune

Exits his lowest Beyer since February, 2011; guess you can blame the wet track and/or the bad-gate break for latest-dismal performance when finishing last; cuts back to his shortest-distance test since being outrun by Dan's Gold; last win was 13 races ago a career-best Beyer effort June, 2013, at 1Mile on BEL dirt.

Dan's Gold

Wet-track 1st-off-the-claim start represents his best Beyer since January; this is an easier spot but with something to prove at BEL Park where he's 0-for-3 locally; his best game is when he breaks sharply which why latest looks even better after leaving the gate 6th; is in his 4th different barn since January and seems well placed here after defeating 2 of these in last; contender.

Lucci the Lion

Trying to snap an 0-for-8 BEL dirt mark; exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when edged in a key race; the runner-up and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 88-82 in next-out FL-allowance and BEL-20K-maiden-claiming wins; gets the Cay to Pomeroy 2-back rematch with a negatve 1-pound weight swing for this. - Art Gropper

Race 6

Flowing Mane

Didn't do much at a slightly shorter trip while returning from 5 months off the bench at this level; he did have early trouble and took the overland route but though he owns the back numbers to go with these there's not a lot to suggest he'll be able to take the needed step forward to have a say in the outcome today; have to side with others on the win end.

Bold Forest

Held second money at the level while rallying into a solid clip at a slightly shorter trip in his first start in over 10 months; 5 year old ran well over the course in the past including his maiden score at this trip and he's got a right to move forward with his last behind him; contender.

Frogman Mel

Makes his first start of the year while also tackling older for the initial time in his return to the green over which he broke his maiden; gelding showed enough lick last season to get involved from the bell here and the barn brings them back ready, but they've been slumping of late; nice to see Castellano take interest.

Charity Reins

Statebred is offered for a tag for the initial time today after attempting to make a wide run at a subsequent repeater at a shorter trip last time; colt has yet to run back to the competitive number he earned in his maiden breaker across town but he will get a switch to a solid journeyman pilot for this and maybe he's set for better third back from the break; price will be right.

Ocala Jim

Hasn't been out in over 5 months and now he'll move to the lawn for his first start under this new outfit's care; gelding broke his maiden at the local trip late last summer and also ran big fresh sprinting upstate off the layoff so maybe he doesn't need to be raced into shape; dull efforts in his last few prior to the time off will make the price appealing.

Grandpa Len

Barn's second runner in here gets a sharp pilot for his return from nearly 16 months on the shelf; it's been a while since he's been in for sale and he has been working steadily for a while now; don't know that he'll be set for his best first time back, but his numbers do fit well and the barn is profitable with its returnees of late.

King Dix C

Aired at a huge price while in with New York breds for the initial time here a few weeks back and now he'll try open limited winners; barn keeps them going second back from the break and he is lightly raced, but he'll need to keep getting better to step with some of these.

Arch Avenger

Aired at odds on when dropped to his lowest level and was taken by an outfit that does a decent job with this type; sire gets 10% winners from his first time turfers and the limited route winning dam was off the board in her lone start over this type of footing.

The Spotted Wonder

Absentee hit the sidelines after breaking through for his maiden score in an off the turfer with statebreds across town and now he'll make his first start in over 14 months; like the way he worked last week and it's encouraging to see this pilot get aboard for the gray's turf debut; sire gets 11% winners from his initial turf starters and the dam did drop a 2 time surface winner who scored first time over the footing.

Brother Ralphie

First turf try at the level came sprinting off a 3 month layoff and figures to have gotten something into him for the stretchout for a barn that excels with both that move and those going second off the break; both sibs are turf winners including SW and 151K earner Heiko so maybe this guy gets better with surface experience; tough draw, but expecting an improved try today.

Ghareeb

MTO tanked after a rough beginning in his local return with allowance runners and now he'll try softer; he's run ok fresh in the past and he'll lure a top pilot for this one; pedigree suggests a wet track will be right up his alley; off the 2 back Pimlico romp he's the one to down if the rains come.

Againsome

MTO has speed and it figures to be on display if he gets to stretch back out in this one; maiden score across town came from a tracking spot while tackling a shorter one turn route and his pedigree says he'd prefer to be swimming down the lane; dangerous foe at this level if this gets moved off the green.

Vona

Recent grad is entered MTO to face winners for the initial time after working a sharp half mile last weekend; his slop spin 2 back was hampered by pace rivals but he does seem to like it wet and he should be involved from the bell; added ground may help him as well; consider.

Cosmic Coincidence

MTO will start from the outside slot if this gets rained off and though he's been sprinting of late he did break his maiden in a one turn mile in Florida in early spring; expect to see him up with the pacesetters early but don't know that he'll have enough to go with them in the lane if he meets the starter. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Mr Rosenthal

His connections had him ready to roll after a layoff in his latest outing and that level of performance can play well in this spot; the rail post can be tricky at this trip and he'll have to be careful to avoid get shuffled back along the rail going into the turn.

Special Selection

Like to see the late running effort he showed up with off of a layoff sprinting over this turf course two starts ago, and he'll appreciate dropping back down in class for this; it looks like the early pace will be fast and contested, so not going to be surprised if he's rolling late.

Western Tryst

He finished behind a couple of today's rivals in his latest outing, but this multiple stakes placed veteran showed signs of regaining some of his old form that day, and he benefits from the services of Rosario once again.

Bug Juice

Multiple stakes winner has run well in all three of his starts since being claimed by his current connections, and he's run well enough over turf in the past to suggest that he can keep it going while going dirt-to-turf for this; he has the look of a top contender with Castellano in the pedals.

Leilani's Ticket

He's been in good form lately, but he has been leaving himself a lot of work to do late in his races, and he needs to try to avoid falling too far out of it early on to give him his best chance; like the idea of Velazquez taking over for this and he should see a closer-friendly early pace scenario.

Bass River Road

Sire has won with 2 of 20 of his turf starters and dam won 4 of 27 starts for 222k, including 0-for-2 over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to stakes placed Don six's Number (9-25, 197k, including 1-for-1 over turf for 12k); obviously he needs to step up his game in his turf debut in order to contend.

Image of Disco

He's put together some decent performances racing over turf in his career, but it's tough to back him with any confidence when taking into account what he's done in his last three outings; winner from latest won next out here on 6/19 going 6f over turf vs. 62k OPC's with a 95 Beyer.

Captain Davrick

He ran some nice races early on in his 4-year-old season and he returned to form when jumping up on a field at over 40-1 in his latest outing; given the possibility of a fast and contested early pace, he'll be looking to make some noise through the lane.

Knockher Off

This gelding has a bit of quality to his pedigree and he shares the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Sandy'z Slew; maybe the 40k price tag is a negative to consider, but he commands contender status in his first start of 2014.

Ziptronic

Tough veteran has had a good deal of success over this turf course and he's eligible to be ready to give a good accoiunt of himself while making his second start back from a layoff; that said, he might find himself involved in a fast and contested early pace.

Lord of Love

Have to respect the way that he got the job done at a price in his first start of the year in his latest outing, but he will have to be ready to take his game to another level to get over on the top contenders in this spot; this race looks like it will shape up in his favor, so perhaps a spot underneath in the exotics isn't out of the question.

Sandy'z Slew

He shares the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Knockher Off and all four of his starts over turf have been in the neighbohood of what it might take to win this, including a couple of starts over this turf course; must respect. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Lady Seeker

Adds blinkers which is just a 4%-win angle for her trainer since 2013; was no match for Make Your Point on dirt but should love the lawn; her sire is an incredble 11-for-38 with 1st-turf starters in North America; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-1 grass dam.

Gu Gu Beans

Exits a career-best Beyer on turf which is her best surface; her November grass debut looks better since the winner (now 3-for-3) and show finisher Beyered 79-69 in next-out GP-75K-maiden claiming and BEL-allowance wins.

Rose Quartz

Expected a lot more from latest following the troubled debut but the winner who beat her 1st-time out defeated her more decisively in last; most runners move forward 2nd-time out but she regressed the Beyer; 3%-winning turf trainer since 2013 takes the MSW-to-maiden claiming drop the biggest in racing in need of a wakeup call.

Race and Shine

The long layoff and getting back on turf did her a world of good in latest as she posted a career-best and best-last-race Beyer; it also was a huge effort because it was her 1st time ever racing as far as today's distance and she was troubled throughout; new rider is winning 50% for the trainer at BEL since 2013; back in just 2 weeks off the huge-fresh effort so must avoid a bounce to graduate.

Make Your Point

Favored with blinkers on for the 1st time she did everything right but win on dirt showing much-more gate speed; might prefer the green; her lone turf start was a solid-closing show finish; the high-percentage rider from latest stays right here; based on the latest-Beyer posted has every chance to move forward now back on the green.

Bi Light of Day

Good router with 3 races at today's distance and 2 in-the-money finishes including latest when it was rained onto dirt; mid-pack closer races in a maiden claimer for just the 2nd time in career and by the looks of latest she has found the correct level.

Rockaway

Sire is 0-for-39 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an unraced dam; just 2 races during career which means there is still upside; main concern is the latest loss was when racing at today's distance for the 1st time; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Bonfire Heart

Has never raced this far of a distance in career; removes blinkers while in need of a wakeup call; turf debut in latest represents a new Beyer-career best passing a few at much shorter; expected to see more gate speed in latest which was missing.

Under Scrutiny

The only exacta finish of career was following a freshening so hopes the 11-week absence for this will work out well; only offered mild rallys in 3 other grass defeats; the winner from last repeated in a BEL allowance with a 72 Beyer.

Lavender Road

3-back is a field-best Beyer when posting a show finish in a 6F-dirt event; today marks her 1st start in a maiden claimer which is considered to be the biggest class drop in racing; the runner-up finisher from her turf debut Beyered 69 in a next-out BEL-MSW win.

Dulhan

Defeated only 4 rivals combined in 3 losses including recent beats vs. similar foes; the debut runner-up finisher Beyered 67 in a next-out BEL-MSW win; exits her best Beyer ever when finishing far back with a troubled trip; is ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Josie's Prospect

Wakeup call in last when making her 1st start in a maiden claimer; she fits well here; the main issue is she was outfinished by Race and Shine but hopes 2nd time off the November layoff will help the faulty stamina to turn the tables.

Kevin's Steel

Both exactas were in LRL grass routes but they were posted way back in 2012; is trying to remember her best form which we haven't seen in a long time; the 7th and 9th-place finishers from last Beyered 69-48 in next-out BEL-40K-maiden claiming wins.

Today Not Tommorow

Races with her lowest-weight assignment since September; has only offered brief speed during career which why staying at today's route distance is a big issue; hopes to carry the gate speed longer now that she is in lighter for this.

Sweetdreamsaboutme

90-1 debut loss she drops right into a maiden claimer seeking a dramatic 2nd-time out improvement; she broke midpack but then faded to finish last racing to those giant 1ster odds; seeking answers making her 1st start in a maiden claimer which is called the biggest-class drop in racing.

East Coast Express

Wants to stalk the inside speed then get 1st run on the closers; have to go back to last summer to see her best finish on today's turf course at the distance; was an early factor in latest loss to 2 of these on dirt but is expected to perform better now racing on the green. - Art Gropper