Belmont: Closer Looks for June 25, 2014

Race 1

Giulio Cesari

Reverts to original pilot Lezcano who may be able to ease this gelding into the soft pace today; faces open company again yet could earn minor spoils here if avoiding an extra-wide journey which was the case in his last outing.

Guyana Express

New face hails from Marquetry who won multiple G1s and 2.84 million and whose progeny have won 39 out of 665 debuts; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 20K earner Greatness Secret; moderate Big A work tab.

Wild Skye

Legitimate excuse to that first defeat and the race itself was above average in quality; his sire won a G1 and 570K overall while the dam won 2 of 7 attempts and 36K; winning siblings include 187K earner Mr. Green.

Hey Kid

Did not fire over the turf in his maiden voyage but can awaken over this surface especially with the equipment change; his sire won a G3 and 447K while the dam was without a victory in 3 starts; sib to 70K earner Courageousandbold.

Lightning Ron

Has shown more gate speed of late so perhaps this distance cutback will work in his favor; the possibility of an off track (which seems likely judging by the latest forecast) would increase his money chances; worth some trifecta inclusion if the weather cooperates.

Reaction Rate

Nothing to highlight thus far but he does drop from special weights; his sire won the Queen's Plate and 1.04 million; the dam went 6 for 45 earning 106K; winning siblings include 75K earner Zekes Surprise; improved a tad in latest a.m. drill.

See Ya

Beginner was sired by multiple G1 victor Grand Slam who captured 971K and whose progeny have won 107 out of 956 initial starts; the dam never competed; among the winning sibs is 25K earner Thunderin Your Ear.

Lane Allen

He broke alertly in both attempts before fading; his sire won multiple G1s and 5.15 million; the dam was a G3 winner who netted 113K; winning siblings include 211K earner True Cause; at this level, he should prove a major pace factor.-Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Elroi

He didn't get beat by much going 1 1/18 miles at this level in is latest and the horse that finished third came back to win the $100K NY Stallion Stakes last Sunday; this guy never got off the rail and he did have to wait for room on the turn; he did hang a bit so not sure how he'll handle the extra 8th; nonetheless, he looks like a serious win threat.

Barnards Galaxy

4-time winner comes off a solid effort in his second start this year and he had to go four-wide around the turn when he was making his bid so it wasn't surprising he couldn't finish it off; he could be sitting on a peak performance in the third start of his current form cycle and the only knock he is still eligible for this condition after 36 starts; Rosario bails but he still looks like a player and at the least should be part of any exotics ticket.

Balderdash

We're more than willing to forgive his latest over a muddy track but this 3-year-old hasn't been much of a threat since he broke his maiden in his third start last year; looking for excuses? he has gotten off to poor starts in a number of races including two back when he finisheded sixth in the same race Barnards Galazy exits; we're still going to pass.

Papa Freud

1 for 24 7-year-old owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field but he earned it over a year ago and the best he's done since then was finish third once; looks like he wants to be involved early and he is going to have to deal with Ballybrit who looks like the one they will be chasing; he's also lost ground in the stretch in most of his recent races so he could have a hard time going this far; prefer others.

Ballybrit

He has improved quite a bit since he was claimed by Contessa and the move back to turf probably had a lot to do with it; he almost took them all the way going 1 1/8 miles two back and considering the yielding conditions in his latest he just went too fast early ; not sure he'll be able to take them all the way here but he could last long enough to be part of the exotics.

Cat Man Fu

It has been a while since he tried the lawn and with good reason since he hasn't made it into the tri in nine starts on turf; he's also been a pretty dull horse on the main track lately and he would need to improve dramatically to make an impact on either surface; passing.

Bluegrass Flash

Lightly-raced 3-year-old just about won his debut on turf and then had a rough trip in his second start as a 2-year-old last year so he shouldn't mind the surface switch; he's had two solid races on the main track this year and he was under wraps for most of the way in his impressive win in his latest; first time with winners but there doesn't appear to be any real stars in the group and he's a half to Discreet Marq who won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on turf last year so there could be plenty of upside potential here; strong connections add to his appeal; the pick.

Irish Jade

He took a big step in the wrong direction in his latest and that makes two pretty dull raes for him this year; he's had some time to regroup and the past five years Terranova has a 18 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 31-60 days; lone win came sprinting so this might be a bit far for him, however; prefer others.

Trainingforsuccess

Deep closer got hung out pretty wide when he was making his move in his latest and he didn't get beat by all that much; he should have an honest pace to work with here and could make some noise with a clean trip; he will be making his first start for a new trainer who has solid recent stats with new shooters and the past five years has an 11 percent strike rate in the same category; nice work June 20; he's probably not the winner but wouldn't hesitate using him in the exotics.-Randy Goulding

Race 4

Raffies Bay

Feel that this late running type is eligible to take a step forward while making his second start back from a lengthy absence, and perhaps the two outside horses will generate enough early pace to give him an honest chance; he merits his share of respect against these.

Hushhushmushmush

Stone-cold closer has run well in two of his first four starts and have to respect the rider switch to Castellano as he's won with 10 of 26 (38%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting; he has the look of a top contender.

Macagone

This colt has turf in his pedigree and he shares the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Iced Over; he has every bit the look of a top contender and perhaps the addition of blinkers can help sharpen him up a little bit.

Vischer Ferry

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 5 of 13 starts for 176k, including 0-for-3 over turf; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 5/30 going 1 1/16m vs. N1X alw. rivals with an 84 Beyer and runner up won next out at Bel on 5/4 going 1m vs. MSW rivals with a 97 Beyer.

Without Fear

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and he's 0-for-39 with his starters trying turf for the first time; this is the first foal to race from a dam who was winless from nine starts, and she didn't make a turf start.

Iced Over

Not wild about Utopia as a turf sire, but this colt did take a step in the right direction along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in his turf debut in his latest outing, and he shares the best last race figure in here with Macagone.

Harbor King

His form has been improved since being returned from a layoff two starts ago and like the idea of getting him back over turf for the first time since his fourth career start; he has at least mild appeal in this spot.

Crescent Street

Sire wins with approximately 22% of his turf starters and he's 16-for-61 (26%) with his starters trying turf for the first time; stakes placed dam won 5 of 21 starts for 196k, and she didn't make a turf start; he's by a strong turf sire and he has some early speed.

All Over Me

This gelding was last seen producing his sharpest performance to date, and not only was that just his second turf start, but now he's making his first start for a new barn that has a reputation for moving horses forward; this gelding is out of a dam who won 6 of 15 turf starts for 129k.-Brian Pochman

Race 6

Ave's Halo

We always respect horses coming out of this barn in turf sprints and it's possible she didn't care for the soft conditions in her last two starts here; her race two back was a key race with the winner coming back to win the $125K Mt.Vernon with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure; if she reverts back to her strong form running over firm tracks last fall she could be a major factor today.

Marcy

No wins on the lawn is an obvious concern but she didn't get beat by that much in her latest and it wasn't the cleanest of trips; she could be ready for a peak performance in the third start of her current form cycle but she is going to need to pick up her game to make a serious impact here; looking elsewhere.

Porvoo

She was no match for Fancy Boss two back and then was waxed by double digits for the ninth straight time in her latest; she needs a lot softer company if she's going to make any kind of an impact in a race for the first time since last Aug.; passing.

Rakin' Gold

She's been away since Jan. 2 when she didn't fire wearing blinkers for the first time; she had a sharp half-mile move June 20 and the past five years Schettino has a 14 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 61-180 days; she ran a big race as a fresh horse last year but her stablemate looks a lot more attractive.

My Jopia

She probably needed her latest and could take a big step forward with a race behind her for Schettino who the past five years has a respectable 15 percent strike rate with horses making their second start following a layoff; she also broke a step slow in her comeback race and she has enough speed to be in the mix early if she leaves there running; stakes winner is 2/2 at the distance and appears to be the main threat to Fancy Boss; big shot.

Ornellia

She appeared to be full of run but had nowhere to go early, and then when she started to make a decent move along the the rail she got stopped cold at the eighth pole; it was a much-better race than it looks on paper and she figures to move forward in her second start back; she probabaly isn't gong to win this but she could work her way into the exotics at what should be a decent price.

Elmra

First time turf for this lightly-raced 3-year-old filly who looked good winning a couple of races on the main track before being overmatched in her first try with stakes horses; she is by a sire who is roughly 11 percent with horses trying the lawn the first time; dam won on turf and placed in a Grade 3 in France; lone sib hasn't won and is 0/4 on grass; Henning has solid recent numbers in turf sprints but the past five years is 6 percent with first-time turfers; tough call.

Fancy Boss

Goes for her third straight win and her latest was a key race with the second and third-place finishers both coming back to win; Image of Noon, third, won the $100K NY Stallion Stakes with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure last Sunday; unless Elmra loves the lawn there doesn't appear to be a lot of other pure speed in the field; expecting Castellano to put her on the lead and she's been a pretty tough horse in the three races she was able to get involved right from the start; the pick.-Randy Goulding

Race 7

Lieutenant Seany O

Cuts back a half panel after running second for the third straight time after getting his nose down to beat cheaper while sprinting early in the meeting; he clearly likes it here and his numbers fit so if he's able to work out a trip from this inside slot he's certainly capable of getting involved in the outcome, but his recent knack for minor awards has us limiting his use to underneath in exotics.

Venetian Mask

Tough to be any more impressive than this guy was in his Park sprint debut last month as he settled before running away from maidens in a professional manner (runner up returned to score with a 74 Beyer) and now he'll try winners in his local debut; barn is having a terrific stand and this guy has been training like he hasn't missed a beat; his dam was a 2 time G1 SP, G3 SW sprinter who banked 576K so there's some class in the family and she dropped a pretty good one in G3 SP, SW and 304K earner Jaguar Paw whose 5 wins all came routing so he should stretch out; he'll take money due to the connections, but it would be no surprise to see him beat these home; contender.

Big Guy Ian

Ran ok until last in the sloppy sophomore stake while returning from a short break down at Gulfstream last month and now he'll try older; barn does well with its fresh stock and this guy has only run a few times so he has a right to improve quickly; ran into subsequent winners of the Florida Derby and Belmont Stakes this winter in Florida.

All My Memories

Returned from time off with an impressive maiden score, earning a number that none of these has yet run; he's had time to get over the big effort and he certainly gave the indication today's added panel would pose him little trouble; prefer to beat this type that just jump up with a big one, but maybe the time off prior to his last just served him well and he's a new runner now; consider.

Magic Cash

Goes first time for a new barn while taking on winners after crushing maidens at 2 turns in Baltimore last month; boasts a sharp recent drill over synthetic footing for his local debut and he does pick up a top pilot for this one; maybe it was the new shades that helped him up his game and he wasn't far off the pace setters in his first out sprint so don't think the return to that type of configuration will bother this lightly raced colt today.

Protonico

Makes his first start for new connections while returning from nearly 9 months on the shelf; he was rather impressive in the maiden sprint score at Delaware first time out and subsequently ran into some decent juveniles across town before being sent to the bench; he's been working steadily upstate for his return to the races and the Pletcher barn certainly knows how to get them ready; nice to see Castellano take the call and we know this colt can fire off drills.

Street Gent

He's been idle since the winter when he proved little match in both starts with winners; while his 2 turn maiden score was solid, he did it on the front end and he hasn't run particularly well fresh in the past; just watching the comebacker.

Old Upstart

Brings speed to the table while stepping up to this level after being given some time following his local debut in which he blew a clear midstretch lead to one of today's foes; gelding boasts some solid recent breezes for this and with a hard send, maybe he's able to clear these again; concerned whether he really wants this trip, but they may have to run him down.

Howl

He wasn't good enough to go with undercard stakes sophomores on Belmont Stakes Day though he did show some early interest before backing out of it; colt is back in a more appropriate spot here and he did break his maiden at the local trip 3 starts back, but today's rail runner did defeat him quite handily in his first with winners; the way the barn's been going here, prefer to side with others on the win end.-Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Roses for Romney

When she breaks well she fires well; there is almost no other gate speed signed on here which helps her chances as she wants to be forwardly placed; exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when overmatched facing stakes company; has almost exclusively raced vs. New York breds during career but today tests open company; her 3-back 8th-pace fade was against open; projects as the one to catch.

Ballerina Belle

Longest-distance test ever but has been screaming out for additional yardage and gets it here; the winner from last repeated in a BEL-125K stakes with a 92 Beyer; she defeated the 4th and 8th-place finishers from last; they Beyered 78-70 in next-out BEL-allowance and 40K claiming wins.

Aliana

Has yet to run back to her co-field-best Beyer speed figure in the 2nd-career start on dirt while exiting a career-low number; sire is 4-for-65 with 1st-turf starters; 1-for-9 dam (40K) did not race on grass; 1 foal to race on turf went 0-for-2 on the lawn.

Kiss Me Lola

Rematch with Ballerina Belle who ran right by her in deep stretch of last; her-co-field-best Beyer was posted on SAR grass; the winner, 4th and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 92-78-70 in next-out 125K stakes, BEL-alw. and 40K-claiming wins.

Tokyo Time

Been lightly raced recently making just her 3rd start of 2014 here; has some class to her; after the maiden breaker has raced only twice in non-stakes losing the 2 races by under 2 lengths combined including the 3-back start at today's distance where the winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with an 82 Beyer; the 2-back runner-up finisher won next out in a GP-OPC with a 93 speed figure.

Violet Hour

Middle moved in her turf debut; she has under 2 lengths to make up on Lawless Miss from last and will be getting a positive 3-pound weight swing today to help turn the tables; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU-100K stakes with a 79 Beyer.

Frege

Cutting back to 7F is the concern; late runner has not competed in this short of a race in the USA; has been blanked from a win picture since January, 2013; has 3 lengths to make up on Sheza Heartbreaker while getting a positive 4-pound weight swing for this; the 3-back runner-up finisher posted a 75 Beyer speed figure in her next-out AQU-OPC win.

Daddy Loves Gold

2013-7F BEL Widener-turf gradaute needed the class drop to win latest while 2-back was no match for similar rivals; she's won on the lead during career but in last rallied from 6th to triumph as favored; the 2-back winner repeated with a 125K stakes with a 92 Beyer.

Sheza Heartbreaker

Put right on the lead in last; that strategy almost had her shock the world at 80-1 odds; she held on well for 3rd money which sets her up well traveling at shorter 7F today; the main knock is 2-back where she finished behind many of these which leaves her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Lawless Miss

Got up for the exacta over Violet Hour; if she fires back to last the added furlong will help the cause; her last 2 wins were posted at 7F and keeps the high-percentage jockey-trainer combo for a barn known to win 2nd time off a 180-day layoff (27% winners since 2013).

Weave

Capable-fresh trainer does some of his best work with repeaters; the 1st test with winners is often any runner's toughest assignment; cutting back to the unfamiliar 7F distance does not help the cause enough; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Painted Poney

29%-winning 1st off the claim trainer suggests she was purchased to race on grass; her sire is 25-for-322 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an unraced dam who's only other foal to race is 1-for-7 grasser Perla Wisdom (14K); the barn is 0-for the last-25 with 1st turfers; keeps the win rider who is 1-for-21 for the trainer at BEL Park since 2013.

Ear D' Rhythm

Even finish 1st off the claim losing to Tokyo Time again; from that event she receives a negative 4-pound weight swing for this which represents the shortest-distance test of her career; super-fresh trainer is having an off-BEL meeting (8%).

Feral Miss

Main Track Only entry is also slated to compete June 24 PRX 9th listed at 8-1 morning-line odds which is a 1-Mile dirt allowance event; a lot of upside off the troubled debut win but with a light Beyer attached; while the extra furlong helps the cause her post-race workout does not leap off the form at you as something special.-Art Gropper

Race 9

Winnitude

Utopia has been a below average influence as a turf sire and don't care to see that this colt has yet to produce a truly competitive performance frrm seven starts, including a couple of turf starts; maybe the drop in class can help, but prefer to keep looking around in here.

Gotham Rising

A case can be made for this gelding being more comfortable sprinting than routing, but his overall form hasn't been bad and this is a decent spot for him to make another start in a route; blinkers come off and this barn has been getting the job done with recent turf starters.

Sequestrate

Sire has won with 2 of 19 (11%) turf starters and dam was winless from 11 starts, including one turf start; this gelding is a 1/2 to Fiddlers Cat (3-15, 128k over turf); he stayed in an off-the-turf event at first asking, and it's interesting to see another fine turf rider aboard.

Bold Senator

He showed up with an improved performance in his first start over turf when last seen and this is a barn that has been live at this meeting, and they are perfectly capable of having one ready to fire fresh; can't count this one out of it.

Spun Hard

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this gelding is a 1/2 to Sounds Familiar (3-16, 82k over turf); 250k purchase debuts with a 40k tag attached, but this barn can have one ready to go long at first asking and they request the services of Rosario.

Whyalwaysme

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; this gelding is a 1/2 to stakes winner I Bet Toni Knows (3-7, 128k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 45k); runner up from latest won next out at Aqu on 4/19 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 70 Beyer; Ortiz has won with 4 of 7 (57%) mounts for this barn at the current stand.

With Expression

It would have been nice to have seen him show more in his first start as a 3-year-old in his latest outing, but maybe he needed the race, and he showed enough in his career debut to merit some consideration in this spot.

Fightin Irish

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and dam won once from eight starts for 38k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to stakes placed Sleepy Freud (1-10, 86k, including 1 of 9 turf starts for 85k).

Unforced

Two Punch has been a poor influence as a turf sire and it's fair to wonder if today's 1 1/16m distance is too much for this speedy gelding to handle; on the positive side, he shows up for a top turf barn and Castellano has won with 27 of 84 (32%) mounts for this outfit in 2014.

Readyfortheday

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and minor stakes winning dam won 11 of 31 starts for 339k, including 0-for-1 over turf; he has some early speed to employ, but he must show more in his first start beyond six furlongs and his first start over turf if he's to contend.

It Matters

Sunriver has been a below average influence as a turf sire and this gelding will have to improve over what he showed in his turf debut in his latest outing to get the better of this field; this gelding is a 1/2 to minor stakes winner Southern Fiction (6-22, 299k, including 2 of 4 turf starts for 73k).

Patrolikeachampion

Tough to give this gelding a favorable push in this spot based on what he's shown us so far, and it's going to take sharp improvement out of him if he's to have a say in the outcome.

The Mooche

He'll have the look of a top contender if he draws into this event and Velazquez has won with 3 of 7 (43%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting; Anstu-owned gelding is worth keeping an eye out for.

East Bay Lodge

He's another interesting player sitting on the Also Eligible list, and like to see the improvement he showed in his first start wearing blinkers in his latest outing; he's a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Wicked Tune (11-36, 376k, including 9 of 25 turf starts for 341k).

Baskets

Lightly raced 3-year-old is a 1/2 to G3 winner Hey Leroy (6-26, 282k, including 5 of 12 turf starts for 242k) and feel that he's still plenty eligible to have more to show us; top connections help add further appeal.

Electric Currency

Two of his first three starts have been solid performances and he adds to the depth of contenders that are sitting on the AE list in here; a repeat of his latest performance can get him into the mix against these.-Brian Pochman