Belmont: Closer Looks for June 21, 2014

Race 1

Beauty Sisters

2 fillies here with Lamontagne to face the boys; sire is 16-for-130 with 1st-turf starters; Group 2-placed dam went 3-for-12 on ENG grass (112K); her 1 foal to race on North American turf went 0-for-1; the other Ward trainee Lamontagne has Johnny V listed to ride so safe to conclude she is rated below her uncouped barnmate.

Lamontagne

FIlly faces the boys again; her sire is 10-for-148 with 1st-turf starters; 1st foal from the dam who went 2-0-0-0 on grass; blasted to the front in last and is the one to catch here; reunites with Johnny V who is 2-for-4 for this trainer at BEL since 2013; high-percentage 2-year-od barn with her ability to obtain the final yards today being the only cause for concern.

International Star

Sire is 26-for-366 with 1st-turf starters; 37-for-313 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 3-for-15 dam (93K) who did not race on grass producing 4 winners from 6 other foals to race (stakes/debut winner Fools in Love 5-for-23, 240K); 3 foals are 0-for 3 combined on turf.

Blazing Truth

Sire is 20-for-352 with 1st-turf starters; 62-for-423 with 2YO debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 3 winners from 4 other foals to race; both foals to race on turf are grass winners including 1-for-4 turfer Wickie's Flame (36K).

Hope Messenger

Sire is 35-for-304 with 1st-turf starters; 17-for-205 with 2YO debut runners; 2-0-0-0 dam went 1-0-0-0 on grass; her only other foal to race is 5-0-2-1 Holy Macaroni who did not race on turf; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Thank You

Sire is 10-for-148 with 1st-turf starters; 20-for-158 with 2YO debut runners; stakes-placed dam went 3-for-14 (88K) but 1-0-0-0 on grass; she produced 5 winners from 7 other foals to race; 1 of 5 foals to race on turf is a grass winner (2-for-16 Mrs Debbie 67K turf).

Valuetempo

Based on the 2 races he is back on his best surface today and has under 2 lengths to make up on Spanish Armada who certainly will be much shorter odds than this one; troubled gate break 2nd-time out; new rider was off to an 0-for-26 start at the current meet.

Spanish Armada

Grass-career debut represents the field's best Beyer speed figure; the trainer only wins at a 31% clip with 2nd-time maiden starters; keeps the 26%-BEL win rider after the even-finishing unveiling; with 5 1sters in here having race experience is a big edge; the one to beat

Penalty Phase

Sire is 10-for-148 with 1st-turf starters; 20-for-158 with 2YO debut runners; is the 1st foal out of a 3-for-17 dam (168K); the 25%-win trainer in 2014 is 0-for-22 with 1st turfers, 10% with 1sters and is not having a good BEL meet; others appeal more at 1st asking, - Art Gropper

Race 2

As Well

Late runner gives the level another shot after coming up short in her first start of the year; inside draw won't help a runner with her style and there's not a lot of early lick signed up to set up her kick; maybe for a minor award, but prefer to side with others on the win end.

Legally Bay

Broke her maiden with a career best number in the last out off the turfer and now she'll get back to the green in her first with winners; maybe she's turned the corner some, but neither surface start was very much; have to side against the repeat if this stays on the lawn.

Aesthetique

Goes second back from the break in her initial route spin after sprinting from an outside slot last time; expect she'll be tighter and she showed at a slightly shorter trip that fall that she can certainly get involved in pace from the bell; looks to be the one they'll have to beat.

Thatza Wrap

Returns to the lawn and she did break her maiden over the surface across town 2 starts back; her one turn main track try last time wasn't very good and though she had some early trouble, it didn't seem to matter much; price figures to be right.

Jcs American Dream

Just missed on the surface switch last time after showing little in her prior couple of turf tries; maybe her last has helped this sophomore get back on track, but don't know that she's going to move forward so much in her return this type of footing.

Willow U

She's earned solid numbers in each of her last 2 cracks on the green and the gal who beat her in her first with winners returned to score; she's got positional foot which figures to have her close to the top early; price won't be as big as lost time, but she's one to consider.

Nonnie Connie

Came up short late while moved back to the lawn in her second start back from the break; expect her early foot will get her in the mix from the outset and she switches to a top pilot while returning quickly for this one; worth a look.

Very Accomplished

MTO will stretch out to route for the initial time if the rains come; beaten last out chalk earned a big number in the 2 back sprint score and maybe she was just reacting to it when returned in just 2 weeks for her last; lightly raced sophomore is bred to handle the added trip and should prove tough to down if she gets to meet the starter.

Chow Fun

Outside drawn filly exits the sprint prep in her return from half a year on the shelf; she earned solid numbers going long on the green across town prior to that one and given the barn's recent numbers on the stretchout she could be set to get back on track here; giving her the nod to run them down. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Alpaca Fina

The selection based on several factors including age transition (she was the only 3-year-old in the field last time when trounced by her elders on the turf); moreover, his pace profile stacks up well against her rivals today; can steal away if inside path is unbiased.

Coal and Ice

On vacation since a game, key-race score last summer at Saratoga; she hails from red-hot sire Tapit who won 557K including G1 success; the dam won 1 of 3 and 56K; among the winning siblings is 69K earner Midnite View; respect.

Bridget Moloney

Notched 4 victories already but now doubles in numerical price; came home in slow time in the last tally and will have to improve her game significantly to defeat this crew; should offer a much better price today than in that last score.

Gem City Gal

Raced evenly in that April getaway race but spots valuable experience over the Belmont course; moderate breeze pattern since that last troubled run but the trainer is a specialist with layoff runners of this type; reverts to winning rider Ortiz, a big plus.

Money Game

Should have gained some education in that turf debut last month; has a perfect exacta record at this tricky distance and should be able to launch a strong rally from midpack if taking to this soil; maintains top-notch rider and warrants consideration.

Live Love Laugh

Scored at first asking at the course and distance but took a while to get there as the final time is on the mediocre side; her sire won a G3 and 249K while the dam won 1 of 7 attempts and 9K; sib to 69K earner Tale of the Forest; hard to judge off one performance.

Paddle Board

Crushed her field when graduating at Pimlico earlier this month; can obtain similar ideal stalking position today and will prove dangerous if able to improve upon the Beyer earned in that maiden victory; maturing lass looks like a comfortable fit against this line-up. - Jim Kachulis

Race 4

Camie's Dancer

Sire has won with 2 of 10 turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; not thrilled with what she's shown racing on dirt, but she does bring some early speed with her, and that can be helpful in a turf dash like this.

Pie's First Lady

She's been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in her most recent starts, but this really doesn't look like a bad spot for her to make her first start as a 4-year-old; at the very least, she's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Read It and Weep

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 9% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from four starts; 120k purchase finds a pretty comfortable spot for her career debut.

Jennys Creek

Greeley's Galaxy has been a poor influence as a turf sire, but this mare has shown enough racing over turf to suggest that she can get herself into the mix against these; that said, going to look in another direction for the top spot.

Lutheran Miss

Sire is 0-for-31 with his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from two starts, including a start over turf; winner from latest won next out here on 5/31 going 7f in a 125k stakes with an 83 Beyer, and runner up won next out here on 6/12 going 6f vs. 40k MCL's with a 70 Beyer.

Luna Brava

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 11 of 39 starts for 115k, and she didn't make a turf start; she has some early speed and can't ignore the rider switch to Castellano for her first turf start.

The Lady's Cruisen

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam won 5 of 21 starts for 109k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Safari Artie (4-8, 95k over turf); that workout on May 31 hints at ability and Velasquez is a go-to rider for this barn.

Chichita

She's struggled to make much of an impression in her first three starts and her connections will hope for better with the addition of blinkers; she looks like more of an outsider.

Churn Notice

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and he's 0-for-36 with his turf starters, and this is the first foal to race from a dam who won 11 of 58 starts for 345k, including 0-for-2 over turf; prefer to lean toward the other firsters in here.

Royal Jest

She sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here and like to see that she earned that figure over this course and at today's distance; feel that she's eligible to show more while making just her second start sprinting over turf. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Jimmy Fillpot

Soph steadied early and never recovered; handled easily by the MTO racer in this fray in the debut, he got a boost when place horse in the debut graduated next out in a MSW with a 66 Beyer; stakes placed 1 for 8 dam cashed on grass, banked $70K; all 3 siblings won in the minor leagues; 2 tried grass to no avail; don't sell too short.

All My Trails

Brief speed in debut on a surface he may not have adored; and he was forced to steady in last; SW 8 for 33 dam earned over $300K, won once on grass; all 4 sibs won; a couple won on grass including 6 for 30 grass racer and over $135K earner Double Shotgun; trainer has spotted them solidly all year.

Giant Slayer

Giant's Causeway about 11% with firsters in an 690-horse sample, about 9% with first-time turfers in a 581-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7, took a Group 1 at 2 as a turf monster; dam was 0 for 5; 2 of 3 siblings won but not on grass; top kin Welcome Guest was G3 placed, banked over $200K; steady moves upstate.

Yes I'm True

At least the Beyers are going in the right direction; SW 2 for 16 dam earned about $85K, was turf only; 3 of 4 siblings won but none won on grass; crushed in other MSW effort; passing.

Uptown Joe

Top Beyer came on this course; dam's lone win was a dirt route, she was second once on grass; lone half bro out of the money twice; drills are ideally spaced.

Summer Cove

Only a brief threat first time for this barn; this $350K, was up for sale in only the 4th start; that seems like a pretty quick give up; can't endorse.

Charitable

Fresh Lasix, blinks and new rider is 12 for 36 for this barn in the last year; SW 1 for 11 dam took a route, lost 6 times on grass; lone half bro Integrity took a stakes, was 5 for 11, banked over $200K, never turfed; maybe he was intimidated by the rail.

Jimmy Soul

Like the series of drills since he flashed career speed in last; there is no turf success in the tree but kin Truc's Love banked nearly $250K; more experienced pilot here; all systems go.

Private Relations

Tough beat 2 back when off poorly; race over the course can't hurt and he was trying till the very end; dam's lone win was a route; lone sibling took one dirt sprint; Alvarado got a chance to figure him out; sitting on another big effort.

Mambo At the Gym

Wide from marooned slot in bow, never kicked in March finale; dam was 0 for 6; all 4 siblings won, a couple won on grass including near $175K earner Malossol; would be careful before going overboard on this Tampa form.

All Included

Include about 8% with first-time turfers in a 230-runner sample; sire was third in best result in 2 starts at 2, earned over $1.6 million, was best long, never turfed; 3 for 10 dam earned about $50K, was grass only; all 4 siblings won including Sarach, who took a G2, banked nearly $250K, was grass only; look for rider to be aggressive from the sound of the bell.

Bolt From the Blue

Colt seems to be figuring it out; SW 3 for 8 dam earned over $130K, was 2nd in best turf moment; 5 of 8 siblings won; the one that cashed on grass, Electric Chant, banked over $150K; no reason he won't move forward.

Rare Eagle

Grass experience lasted one race when he was hung wide; 2nd and 5th finishers in last took MSW events next out with 81 and 68 Beyers respectively; at least backers can point to the over $100K earner in the family; a slice may be the ceiling. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

My Jolie (IRE)

One of two imports signed on in this spot for the Mettee barn and it's interesting to see the wagering support this miss attracted in her first three career starts, including a G3 run two back; Team Valor-owned miss gets blinkers for her first start in America

Nisharora (IRE)

It looks like she did little wrong in her three starts racing overseas as a 2-year-old, and keep in mind that those starts were early in the year; this is her first start beyond six furlongs, but she has a live look to her with Rosario getting the call and like to see her getting Lasix for the first time.

Walk Close

She's likely going to need to step it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale to win this event, but that's certainly a possibility for this lightly raced miss; runner up from latest won next out here on 6/18 going 7f over turf vs. 50k OPC's with an 80 Beyer.

Super Sky

Not sure that her best effort is quite strong enough to beat this bunch, but she hails from a strong barn, and Velazquez has won with 7 of 27 (26%) mounts for this outfit at the current meeting; perhaps a minor award is within reach, but going to look in another direction for the top spot.

Sweet Acclaim (IRE)

She may very well prove to be the one to deny in this spot and she shows up for a top turf barn that has done little wrong at this meeting; if she maintains status quo, she'll make one of these have to jump up to beat her; Castellano has won with 9 of 22 (41%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Holabird

She's heading in the right direction as she gets ready to make her third start as a 3-year-old, but this has to be considered a tough spot for her to take on winners for the first time; maybe she'll be worth looking out for the next time around with a drop in class.

Wave the Flag

She deserves a lot of credit for getting the job done at first asking going 1m 70y and she's out of a stakes winning dam who won 4 of 12 starts for 324k, including 2 of 6 turf starts for 171k, but she's another who finds herself in tough in her first attempt against winners.

Courtesan

She was a stakes winner racing over turf as a 2-year-old and feel that she's eligible to be ready for her sharpest performance to date while making only her second start with Lasix; she's one of two interesting looking options to consider in here for the Clement barn. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Table Three Ten

Her 2 previous stakes losses were both 5th-place finishes and seems to be shooting high here off the PRX-optional-claiming loss; the 2-back winner and show finisher posted 101-71 Beyer speed figures in next-out CRC-65K stakes and GP-OPC wins.

Five Star Momma

Last 3 wins were right on the lead but has Ultimate Shopper to fend off early today; she did not make the front in latest decisive defeat vs. Merry Meadow getting a positive 3-pound weight swing with a 9-length deficit to make up; would be a shocker off latest; view as a pace presence for part.

Flattering Bea

Beat 1 runner home when last trying graded-stakes company so must pass the class test to win; blanked on wet tracks but was so sharp in last she saved her best Beyer for the slop which is a good sign considering the strong 5-for-11 fast dirt record; receives a positive 1-pound weight swing off the under 1-length loss vs. Lion D N A; have mixed feelings.

Ultimate Shopper

Try to catch me; raced on the lead in all 4 starts; the runner-up and 4th-place finishers from last both Beyered 88 in next-out BEL-allowance and starter alw. wins; one of these days she's going to run back to her career debut field-best Beyer speed figure win at today's 7F distance on BEL dirt.

Hot Stones

Seems to be shooting high off the stakes-debut loss vs. New York breds now trying open-Grade 3s; the trainer goes blinkers on which is just a 6%-win angle since 2013; normally reliable-win barn has had a subpar BEL meet; reunites with the win rider as Johnny V leaves for Table Three Ten.

Ode to Sami

1 of many in here leaping up to try Grade 3 company; at least she won her last start scoring in upset fashion to post the fresh win but is now back in just 23 days for this; have to go back to October, 2012, to see her race at 7F on BEL dirt a near-miss finish vs. the winner who repeated with a 70 Beyer then made it 3 in a row with a 79 taking PRX-OPC wins.

Calistoga

Her only other graded-stakes attempt was a favored loss at CD where she was outfinished for the show money; all 3 wins at shorter than 7F where she still has a lot to prove with 2 off-the-boad finishes; win rider stays and you don't get a much-hotter BEL jockey-trainer combo (31%).

Merry Meadow

Stakes-placed at today's distance she will be a tough customer if can repeat latest Beyer a career-best number with 84 days between races; she's back in just 5 weeks for this; horse for the course has never finished off the board on BEL dirt; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 99-93-86 in 3 next-out wins including a G2 stakes; she beat the 3-back show runner a next-out AQU-OPC winner (74).

Classic Point

Set the pace at longer; her best game is on the lead but has Ultimate Shopper to beat from the gate which will be no easy task; Table Three Ten beat her 3-back while the winner repeated in a CRC-65K stakes with a 101 Beyer; view as a pace presence for part.

Street Girl

Late runner hopes someone goes after Ultimate Shopper early to help her huge-late punch; 7 weeks since chasing a Baffert easy winner in a Grade 1; she beat some nice ones that day and with 6 of her last 7 races vs. graded company she owns the class edge over many of these; last win was in the slop while the 1-for-12 fast record is noted.

Lion D N A

Exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when snapping an 0-for-5 wet-dirt mark to win a stakes; obviously a great sign being sharp enough to win on a surface she seemingly doesn't care for; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-200K stakes with a 93 Beyer; only BEL race was at today's 7F distance finishing 2nd best to a winner who repeated in a BEL-OPC with a 90. - Art Gropper

Race 10

The Brothers Rap

Pushed into open company in the 2/24 race and just a couple of slices since; he has more speed than he has shown of late and maybe Baker trying to coax it out of him with the blinks this time; he showed renewed energy in the 6/12 more and wonder if the shades were on that morning?; don't ignore.

Summer Place to Be

The fact he won his debut gives him a shot to fire fresh; he has pressing speed if in the mood and could show more zip with the blinks today; 4/5 show horse took and N1X next out then was out of the money in the $125K Mike Lee; winner 4/5 won twice since, the last in a $40K optional here with an 86 Beyer; fits in the Beyer department; major player.

Sinistra

Far from a win machine, can't be thrilled with the local slate but he did catch legit splits in last; decent move since and he showed he has some ability with the head beat in the $100K 2/22 stakes; Castellano enticed; rates upset glance.

Go Get the Basil

No kick in this league last time; note he regressed on the Beyer scale in the last 2nd off the layoff run; respect barn and the bullet move on the 15th is eye catching; should be value, interesting.

Quiet Power

Three Beyer regressions since the win over a year ago; best it seems when put into the race early and like this work pattern; surprise package.

Ultimate Empire

Like fact he has natural speed but he doesn't need the lead to succeed; this pilot was up when racer finished first before the stewards got involved last July; barn due for a bit of luck; check out the 11 slices this meet.

Socialsaul

He's been a popular claim box item the last year or so; winner 3/13 took a $100K optional in next with a 104 Beyer; he goes from one good barn to another; and nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 13 of 30; he did hook a clear winner in last; not impossible task.

Sir Leslie

The race over the surface can't hurt; homebred has failed vs. much softer but he is coming off a solid effort; with his style, things will need to break just right up front; must be left in the exotic conversation once again.

Effinex

Two excuses in last; the poor start and the company; note he only finished first once; colt was losing a little ground late in this league two back but connections did have the confidence in him to try Wicked Strong in the Wood; look for him late if at all. - Brian Mulligan